The Realm of Football: Part One

"They are we thought they were!"....Or maybe not? 

The first two weeks are in the books, and The Realm of Football still stands similar to how it did before the season started...for the most part. Certainly there were some scares, as Mike Gundy had Jameis Winston looking at Oklahoma State like they were a group of Publix security guards. Yet some things are going according to plan, as Marcus Mariota looks like the one true king that can unify The Realm, despite the arrival of the potential usurper known as "Kenny Trill." However, there has been one major turning point in the evolving story, told last weekend across varying states in the north. House Delany was pillaged, sacked, and burned to the ground, as Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan were all publicly beheaded in their primetime matchups. Fear not though, members of House Delany. Given recent showings, House Bowlsby is looking equally weak, especially after the Mormons had their way with the house's first-born child, refusing to even offer her a nice meal before completely ruining her. Indeed, The Realm of Football can be a savage place. Let's review some of the happenings from the first two weeks, and look ahead at what may happen in the months to come.  

1. Be hesitant with the "anointing oils", as they will often light your ass on fire and make you look like an idiot.  

So often in the early weeks, overreactions are made without taking a step back and remembering where we are in the course of a football season. Crowns are placed on the heads of some, and others call for houses to be burned to the ground in Evan Williams fueled rage. One week it's: "Oh my God, this offense is the greater than listening to angry Will Muschamp." The next: "The only thing worse than that defense is taking heroin. Actually, taking heroin would probably be better than having to watch that defense again." 

Two prime examples of this phenomena are the Charlie Strong Players Not Yet Kicked Off The Team and the Arizona Wildcats. Both fan bases were jacked up on Mountain Dew after the first weekend of football, as the Texas defense held North Texas to 94 yards of total offense, and The Fighting Rich Rods put up nine billion yards of offense against UNLV with a new quarterback and no Ka'Deem Carey. Fast forward to Week 2, and the Wildcats are fighting for their lives to escape San Antonio (yes, there is D-1 football in San Antonio) with a win, followed by the Burnt Orange Sea parting for Mormon Tebow to galavant into the end zone repeatedly. 

Mormon Tebow > Dylan Haynes 

The simple fact is that it is still way too early in the season to make calls on how most of these teams will look at season's end, and that there is still a ton of football to play. Plenty of time is left for teams to develop and grow into a better version than what they currently are, and plenty of time remains for the wheels to come off the bus. Lets wait a few more weeks before deciding whether to break out the twenty-one year scotch, or down grain alcohol without a mixer.

2. Regarding Marcus Mariota...forget what was said above. All Hail King Mariota. 

Through two weeks: 31-48 for 585 yds, 6 TDs; 15 rushes for 85 yards and 1 TD. 

Get yo hands off The King

670 yards of total offense, 7 TDs, no INTs....And a double-digit win over a Top 10 team. Ladies and gentlemen, the best player in the country is officially your Heisman frontrunner. 

3. Kenny Trill is just another cog in the Kevin Sumlin Offense WonderMachine

"You see, Kenny, I push this button, and voila, 500 yards of offense."

Don't get me wrong, I think Kenny Hill is a fantastic player. As good as he is though, that performance against South Carolina validated my belief that there isn't a better coach than Sumlin when it comes to developing quarterbacks. Just think about the players Sumlin has molded in recent years: Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, Johnny Manziel, and now Kenny Hill. Lots of insane numbers, and two of those big shiny trophies called "Heismans" comprise the notches on Sumlin's belt. Of course it's still early in the season, and the South Carolina defensive performance was the prequel to Texas' 3rd Quarter play, but you can't ignore the way Hill put up the numbers he did. He was throwing the ball all over the field with confidence, and marching down the field on damn near every drive. 

Hill will struggle at some point, as nearly all freshmen do. Yet based on Sumlin's past development of quarterbacks, the state of Texas will be his to rule over so long as he remains in College Station. If you're a high school quarterback or wide receiver in Texas with dreams of playing on Sunday, how could you not choose to play for the best offensive coach in the best conference in The Realm of Football?

4. Speaking of the best conference in the realm...   

The race for the SEC West will be the best in the country, and it won't even be close. Outside of maybe Arkansas, every team in this division is capable of beating anyone on any given night. While this division has generally been ruled by LSU and Alabama (with the occasional War Eagle sighting), the parity this year is incredible. 

Alabama is stacked with talent like always, but the quarterback debate still hasn't been settled, which could certainly lead to problems when the Tide begin conference play. 

Auburn and Texas A&M can score with anyone, but will either team be confident in getting a stop when it matters? 

LSU has a pair of incredible running backs, but the team looked shaky against Wisconsin. 

Ole Miss has a stout defense and great WRs, but Bo Wallace is the ultimate case of Jekyl & Hyde.

Mississipi State can't be slept on, as they hung tough in just about every big game last year, and now have Dak Prescott solidified and playing well at QB. 

Throw in the possibility of the Woo Pig RBs going off to cause an upset here or there, and you have a division race that could be filled with carnage every week. Leave your predictions about this division at the door, sit back, and enjoy the show.

5. B1G has already lost its head. House Bowlsby looks to be next on the chopping block.

The only reason the Big XII still has its head above water is because Oklahoma and Baylor have kept it afloat. There was hope for the conference after Week 1, given the inspiring performances of middle-tier Oklahoma State and West Virginia against national powerhouses. Then Week 2 happened, and House Bowlsby soiled itself. Beyond the drubbing in Austin, Kansas State needed a massive comeback late in the game to beat Iowa State, who had lost to North Dakota State the week before. (Memo to all Big XII teams: Do not play NDSU. Fool us once, shame on you. Fool us twice, shame on us, and we look like idiots.) 

Despite two W's, Tech has fallen flat on its....You get the picture. 

Last but not least, Texas Tech has proven itself to be the most undisciplined team in football. In defeating mega dominant powerhouses UTEP (they probably should have lost to the Miners) and Central Arkansas by a combined whopping 11 points, the Red Raiders racked up 25 penalties for 204 yards. Having fun and wearing "Beyonce is Bae" shirts is great and all, but this isn't a squad that can win against the better teams on its schedule while being that undisciplined. They certainly can't let it happen this week, considering their defense (108th nationally in run defense) is going up against arguably the best stable of running backs in the country. Don't be surprised if Woo Pig runs wild this weekend in Lubbock. 

6. Puddles the Duck is the greatest mascot to have ever graced the realm. 

If Marcus Mariota is the king, then Puddles is surely The Hand who pulls the strings in this realm. Should you have any doubts about it, this video will put you in your place. Unlike Kim Jong-Un, may Puddles actually live 1,000 years. (For further reading on this national treasure, read Spencer Hall's fantastic piece from earlier this week.)

That's all for this week in The Realm of Football. Be sure to follow the blog, and if you appreciate what we're producing here, share it with your friends!  

  

The Four To Score: Week 3

Conference play needs to get here...FAST!

Yeah, we get it Pat. We messed up. Now go back to eating hot dogs in the box.

As stated before, the college football season is a bit of a marathon, and you are bound to slip up at some points here and there. Last week, The Four To Score forgot to tie its shoes and fell flat on its face. Bad picks (Wazzu, Texas, and UCLA) and bad beats (Texas-BYU under, Stanford) brought us back toward the 50% mark after a stellar Week 1. Chad was hit a bit harder by last week's results, as he struggled to a 1-4 week. I'd argue that I was a bit more unlucky, as the only thing that kept me from a winning week was the Texas defense not coming out of the tunnel until the fourth quarter (game was 6-0 at halftime and destined to go well under the total, only for there to be 35 points in 3rd quarter). Enough with the griping though. The third week of college football provides us with an opportunity to make things right, and get back on that winning horse. Based on the card this week, we'll just say that we can't wait for conference play to get here.... 

First Down: West Virginia +3.5 at Maryland, 12:00 PM EST (Garrett)

Revenge of the Holgo

Though the Mountaineers got ruined (37-0 in this game last year, Holgo's boys are a much different team than the version we saw last year. They more than held their own against Alabama in the opener, and looked sharp again last week, even if they were only playing Towson. On the other side of the ball, Maryland looks like it might have taken a step back from last year. They haven't played anyone coming out the gate, yet still nearly lost to South Florida last week in a game that saw the Terps turn the ball over six times! Had they played a team with a competent offense, Maryland would rightfully be 1-1. The last thing you can do against a Dana Holgorsen team is give them more opportunities to score...Clint Trickett and the Moutaineers will do just enough this week in a big revenge spot to get the win outright. Prepare the couches, Morgantown!

The face of a man about to deliver a Country Ass Whippin'

Baylor -33 at Buffalo, 8:00 EST FRIDAY (Chad)

Baylor is rapidly becoming the Oregon of the Bible belt, exchanging the frank, to the point speed of Chip Kelly with the folksy, cornpone spinnings of Art Briles. Briles is a long undervalued master of Offense and his Bears have cruised through the first two weeks. Baylor leaves their new Boatgating Palace for the first time this season and heads to the Canadian Border town of Buffalo to play the Bulls. Honestly, I have no idea who Buffalo's current coach is, and I don't care. It could be the second coming of Hal Mumme and my analysis wouldn't change. Buffalo beat Duquesne by 10(!) in week one, then proceeded to lose to the Juggernaut that is Army by 8 in week two. Buffalo is bad, and Baylor is not. Baylor by more than 5 scores.

Second Down: Arkansas +2 at Texas Tech, 3:30 PM EST (Garrett)

I must admit that I'm a bit worried about the lights finally coming on against Texas Tech. That being said, this team in turmoil is going up against an extremely hungry Arkansas team desperate to end a ten game losing streak in games against meaningful opposition. Simply put, the situation and the matchup favor Woo Pig. The Red Raiders have been undisciplined (25 penalties for 204 yards) and couldn't stop the run against lowly UTEP or Central Arkansas (108th in the country, giving up 224.5 ypg on the ground). Conversely, Bielema's boys at Arkansas thrive on running the ball, as they are currently 12th in the country in rushing yards, and QB Brandon Allen is a lot better than most people think. The Razorbacks ground attack should allow them to slow the game, and keep Tech's offense from getting into a groove by keeping them off the field. Woo Pig narrowly missed out on the cover in Week 1 against Auburn, but they get the cover and the win here.

Unfortunately, the Universe will not deprive the archetypal Tech fan of a W Saturday. Wreck 'Em!

Texas Tech -2 vs. Arkansas, 3:30 EST (Chad)

Under very few circumstances would I ever pick against Texas Tech with conviction given the past decade plus of Red Raider football. At home, against a less than established opponent is not one of them.  Yes, Arkansas can run the ball. Yes, Arkansas has considerably more talent than either Central Arkansas or UTEP. But, let's be real. This is Texas Tech, Destroyer of Dreams, playing in their desolate tumbleweed and tortilla infested fortress. Cliff Kingsbury is no idiot, and will have his guys fired up and ready to play Arkansas. They will even be wearing Dykes era throwback helmets, which would make the Hogs running all over them all to ironic. Kliff has hired a non-idiot to run his defense (Matt Wallerstedt) who will stuff the box. Brandon Allen might be "better than people think," but better there is a bunch of room between "Literally Cannot Hit Broad Side of Barn" and "Still Not Very Good" (Allen is somewhere between those two right now). It may not be a blowout, it may not be convincing, but somehow the Raider's pull this one off. 

Third Down: Colorado +15.5 vs. Arizona State, 10:00 PM EST (Garrett)

As I stated in our season preview, the Sun Devils are likely to regress this season given the inexperience on defense (only 2 returning starters). This is the first game in which that unit will go up against a competent offense, as last week's opponent New Mexico is an option-based team, and Weber state is Weber State. Look, I'm not saying Colorado is a world-beater that will win this one outright. After all, they barely beat UMass last week by a field goal. That being said, the offense did look like a unit that had figured some things out, and this game is a massive revenge spot for the Buffaloes given what the Sun Devils did to them in Tempe last season (54-13). Expect to see some wacky things happen late at night in Boulder on Saturday, as Arizona State will be hoping to just get to their bye week unscathed before hitting the bulk of their schedule.

Oregon -43.5 vs. Wyoming, 2:00 PM EST (Chad)
Oregon scored 46 against Michigan State, the latest "Hey, the B1G doesn't suck!" team to get embarrassed. Wyoming is... I can't. Seriously, if my editorial director wouldn't have thrown a fit, I would've just put "BAHAHAHAHA" and then a picture of Puddles riding a motorcycle. But... Actually, whatever. I don't care...

Fourth Down: Penn State -3 vs. Rutgers, 8 PM EST (Garrett)

Happy times in Happy Valley right now. 

I was pretty impressed when Rutgers was able to go on the road to Wazzu in Week 1 and get an upset win as an eight point underdog. Then Wazzu lost last week to Nevada, and Rutgers' win against Mike Leach's crew started to look like just an ordinary W. Though Rutgers returns 16 starters and will be playing their first ever B1G game at home, I just think there is a distinct difference in talent here that will lead to a Penn State victory. I loved seeing how James Franklin's unit responded to some adversity in Dublin, driving down the field in the last 1:13 of the game to kick a game-winning field goal (not to mention UCF is a much more formidable opponent than Wazzu). Also, don't forget the added meaning every game now has for the Nittany Lions, as they recently had their postseason eligibility reinstated. For the conference race and bowl purposes, the Penn State can ill afford to lose a game against the team that many predicted would finish at the bottom of the B1G East. Hackenberg will shine once again for Penn State, as they win by a touchdown on the road.

Georgia -5.0 at South Carolina, 3:30 EST (Chad)
When we last saw our hero, he was sulking back to his headquarters at Augusta National, fresh off a swagtastic ass whipping from Kevin Sumlin and the Aggies ( I know they played East Carolina and won last week, but that ruins the narrative). Unfortunately, things will get worse before they get better for the HBC. I predicted doom for South Carolina this year and nothing I've seen in the first two week changes that line of thinking. They simply lost too much on defense to be a front line contender in the SEC. Georgia, however, has the look of a front runner all of the sudden, with Todd Gurley looking very much like an invitee to New York for the Heisman ceremony come awards season. Sandstorm and a little Tennessee trash talkin' had a hell of a run over the past 3 seasons, but Saturday marks the true beginning of the end for Spurrier's run at South Carolina. Our hero will next be relevant in 2017... (URL for SpurrierforTexas.com still available. NO, not for a coaching position, silly, for Governor!).

Extra Point: Notre Dame vs. Purdue UNDER 57.5, 7:30 PM EST (Garrett)

In the past eight years, this game has gone under the total five times (5-2-1), and only twice has the posted total been north of 57.5 (both contests went under). When you look at this matchup, a few things stand out. First, Purdue is &%^*&! awful. Secondly, this game reeks of being a hangover spot for Notre Dame after last week's huge rivalry win over Michigan. Purdue struggled to score against Central Michigan last week at home, and odds are that trend will continue against the team that shutout Michigan in primetime. That being said, this one will probably be closer than people think (Notre Dame is -28), as four of the last five games in this series have been decided by 11 points or less. Purdue struggles to score, but somehow hangs around for awhile in a game that stays well under the posted total. 

"I told you sir, we are out of midsize sedans. We have a great selection in the economy class still available."

Arkansas St. +17.5 vs. Miami (FL) 3:30 EST (Chad)
At this point, I wouldn't trust Al Golden to run an Enterprise Rent-a-Car (get it, he looks like he works there). Looking at comps, Arkansas State covered against a pretty good Tennessee team on the road in Knoxville last week. Miami is probably about as talented as the Volunteers, but is still breaking in a True Freshman at Quarterback. Arkansas States doesn't win, but they lose by less than this. 

Garrett's Record: 6-4

Chad's Record: 4-5-1

Overall Four To Score Record: 10-9-1

The Four To Score: Week 2

Let The Good Times Roll 

"Nick, it was only one shot of Fireball with Holgo"

Despite the minefield of mega-lines that is Week 1 of every college football season, we were able to start the season off on the right track. It wasn't always easy (see: Bo Wallace's dumpster-fire first half), and some luck was needed at times (looking at you, Buckeyes), but there were some absolutely correct calls made last week as well. Thanks to incredible performances from Kenny Trill and Aaron Jones, Texas A&M and UTEP said "to hell with the spread" and pulled off road upsets despite being dogs of more than a touchdown. I've got a very narrow lead over Chad coming out of the gate, but it was a damn good week for The Four To Score overall, as our picks went a combined 7-2-1. There are a few more marquee matchups on the board this week, but as shown by UTEP, winners can be found in even the least appealing games. Lets jump into this week's picks, as we do our best to avoid a Wisconsin-esque collapse in Week 2.

First Down: Oregon -12 vs. Michigan State, 6:30 PM EST (Garrett)

Michigan State has all the conference championship hype behind it now that Braxton Miller has been lost for the season. It has also has a shiny Rose Bowl trophy from last season that most people are probably putting a lot of weight into when looking into this week's game. But Sparty doesn't know what it will be walking into Saturday when they set foot in Autzen Stadium, and they sure as hell don't have the country's best player on their team. Oregon has been fantastic as a home favorite over the past ten years, going 36-22-2 ATS. Marcus Mariota has also been a horse to back during his time on campus, as the best player in the country has gone 16-10 against the number. Michigan State's defense was fairly salty on the whole last season, but they only return five starters this year, and last year's unit gave up some pretty big numbers to two of the best offensive teams it faced (374 yds against Ohio State, 392 at Nebraska). Mariota and the Ducks' offensive pace will prove to be too much, as the Ducks make a declaration of intent in a marquee game that features the lowest Oregon home betting line since 2010.

Stanford -2.5 vs. USC, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)

Oh boy, this one is going to be fun. The margin of victory for whoever wins won't exceed single digits. There is not a single team in college football I have been more impressed with than Stanford over the past 5 years. I loved what Harbaugh did, and David Shaw has only improved on that mold. In 2010 and 2011 Chip Kelly's dystopian duck cyborg blood machine dismantled Stanford by at least 20 points, but the Cardinal have solved their Oregon problem over the past two years (two wins: 17-14, 26-20). I know USC isn't Oregon, but I mention them to show Stanford can hold an explosive offense down, as far as scheme goes (the likes of 19 year letterman Shayne Skov will be sorely missed, obviously). USC is a dangerous team, and they appear to be the cream of the Pac 12 West out of the gate. This one could go either way. but  the Revenge of the Nerds continues into 2014. Give me the proven, consistent Cardinal by a field goal.

Second Down: Colorado State +10 at Boise State, 10:15 PM EST (Garrett)

Don't look now, but Jim McElwain is building himself a nice little program up at Colorado State. The Rams started the season off on the right track last week, beating in-state rival Colorado by 14 in Denver. Last year's game between these two teams was a strange one, as the Rams outgained the Broncos by 189 yards, held the ball twice as long, but lost by 12 due to going 4-7 on 4th Down. Colorado State's offense showed no signs of slowing down last week, as they produced two 100 yard rushers in the victory over the Buffs. If the Rams can be a bit better in the turnover game, their rushing attack should be able to control the clock, and the offense will give them a chance to win outright.

No, we don't miss you.

Texas +1 vs. BYU, 7:00 PM EST (Chad)
This a complete gut feeling, and I want desperately to be right. As much trauma as the Horns offense has experienced over the past six weeks, it's hard to disagree with this line. But, I saw a different Texas team last week. A team that was actually playing football, and isn't going to lose if they can help it. The key cogs to a Texas victory haven't been suspended (yet). The defense will carry the day, and the two-headed monster of Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray will do just enough to keep Texas' head above water offensively. The culture change in Austin is real, thank god, and Texas escapes to Arlington undefeated.

Third Down: Washington State -3 vs. Nevada, 10:30 PM EST FRIDAY (Garrett)

And he covers on Friday. 

If previous trends continue, Washington State losing a close one at home last week to Rutgers should be a blessing for bettors this week. Mike Leach has been pretty damn good at getting his teams to bounce back after a loss, as Wazzu has gone 9-6 ATS in games coming off a SU loss. Furthermore, the Cougars have been good against the number away from home, going a perfect 6-0 last season, and 8-4 over the last two seasons. They may be bottom-feeders in the PAC 12, but Leach's team should have a distinct talent advantage this week when they head to Reno to take on a Nevada team that gave up an average of 500 yards per game last season. That type of defense is exactly what pass-happy Mike Leach and Connor Halliday want to see in a game they must win if they want any chance of going to a second consecutive bowl game.

I wish we missed you. I really do. But, we don't. We miss your pants, though.

Tennessee -17 vs. Arkansas State 12:00 PM EST (Chad)
Consider me a full believer in what Butch Jones is doing in Knoxville. He has won everywhere he's been, and the Volunteers were better than people realize last year. Tennessee looked better than expected against a competent Utah State team last week, and the Vols are still being underestimated. This team has talent, and they will put a scare into an over-hyped OU team next week. Plus, nothing Arkansas State is bringing to the table excites me. Literally, nothing. I have no intention of watching this one, but will be refreshing the box score frequently. Tennessee cruises into their showdown with the Sooners next week by at least 3 scores...

Fourth Down: Oklahoma -24.5 at Tulsa, 12 PM EST (Garrett)

Call me crazy for laying this kind of chalk on the road, but history is on my side in this one. Since the turn of the century, these two teams have met on the gridiron seven times, and in every game but one, Big Brother has hammered the hell out of Little Brother. Outside of the 2005 matchup when Bob Stoops had Paul Thompson and Rhett Bomar (CHA-CHING!) under center, Oklahoma has won every other game in this series by 31 or more! Bolstering my belief that another blowout is in the cards are the numbers Tulsa's opponents put up last year. Against the better teams they played in conference last season, Tulsa was annihilated. Against both UNT and Marshall, they were outgained by at least 275 yards, and were throttled by 34 points on the road at East Carolina. Hell, they just gave up 516 yards to TULANE last week, including 254 on the ground. Oklahoma's offense will run riot, and the Sooners' defense should do plenty to hold Tulsa in check. Bobby's boys win by at least thirty.

Pittsburgh -4 at Boston College, 7:00 PM EST (Chad)
I really hate to throw a boring, middle of the road ACC game at you guys here, but what else are you going to watch on Friday night? Boston College has essentially zero returning skill players on offense. Andre Williams has taken his talents and 2,200 rushing yards to the NFL, and his incredible season was all that kept the Eagles relevant for much of 2013. Pitt, however, has the look of a team who is finally taking on their head coach's identity. Paul Chryst was the Offensive Coordinator at Wisconsin during the prime of the Bielema years, when the Badgers just absolutely pounded the rock. Chryst returns two 800 yard backs from last year (James Conner and Isaac Bennett) and four starters on the offensive line. Look for Pitt to try and bulldoze their way to a seven point win.

P.S:  Boston College's addition of Florida transfer Tyler Murphy at QB is a total wild card here and could ruin everything. He looked good against a helpless UMass team in week one. This is my fourth pick for a reason, so proceed with caution. 

Extra Point: Texas vs. BYU UNDER 46.5, 7:30 PM EST (Garrett)

I have absolutely no confidence in predicting who will win this game, but all signs point to it being a game dominated by the defenses. With both David Ash and Dom Espinosa out, QB Tyrone Swoopes and C Jake Raulerson will both be making their first ever collegiate starts, which will probably lead to some trying times for the Horns on offense. Flip the script, and you can bank on Taysom Hill not getting anywhere close to the numbers he put up in last year's game in Provo, as the Texas front seven looked pretty damn nasty last week. Both teams will be desperate for points in this one, and barring D/ST TDs, this one has the making of a "first team to twenty wins" game...if either team even gets to twenty.

UCLA -23.5 vs. Memphis, 10:00 PM EST (Chad)
I'm not big on UCLA this year, but this is absolutely ridiculous. Yes, UCLA struggled against Virginia. Virginia had the horses to stay with UCLA on critical downs, and it showed some chinks in the Bruins armor. UCLA will be in some dog fights in league play, but not against Memphis. This is a classic case of people overreacting to a bad showing. UVA has some athletes on defense (seriously, is there a bigger "sleeping giant" than UVA?), and the scare they gave UCLA should provide the Bruins with some added motivation to prove they are the team the country thinks they are. UCLA runs away with this one early. 

Garrett's Record: 4-1

Chad's Record: 3-1-1

Overall Four To Score Record: 7-2-1

The Four To Score: Week One

Big Lines, Slim Pickins 

The Four To Score is back for another season which will surely be filled with narrow escapes, hold-your-breath moments, and inevitable bad beats. Despite some rough patches in the middle of last season, we capped the year after Week 13 with a record of 30-30-1, going 5-0 that final week. This time around, Chad West, CPA, will be going toe-to-toe with me all season long, adding his thoughts on the weeks spreads and totals to the mix. We'll have running totals for the season at the bottom, giving you ample opportunity to heap praise upon or give us grief should we be doomed to mediocrity. 

While we're happier about the return of CFB than Nick Saban is about being engaged in a "process," Week 1 always proves to be a difficult task. With many games featuring heavily mismatched teams comes many giant lines, making it difficult to mix-and-match winners between the few premier matchups and the sure-to-be blowouts. After consulting the tarot cards, Brent Musburger's not-so-secret gambling diary, and Switzer's stash of Sooner Magic, here are this week's picks.

First Down: Arkansas +21 @ Auburn, 4 PM EST (Garrett)

After their "shock the nation" campaign last year, I'll be looking to go against the Auburn Tigers in a lot of spots this season. Don't get me wrong, I love watching what Gus Malzahn draws up on offense every Saturday. That being said, after going 12-2 against the number last season, you can expect to see some inflated numbers in Auburn games this season, and this appears to be one of them. In last season's matchup, the Tigers covered on the road as 7-point favorites in November, but the Razorbacks only lost by 18 points SU despite losing the turnover battle 3-0. Auburn only beat one SEC opponent by 21+ last season, and while the Razorbacks are by no means contenders in the West, they do have a stable of very good running backs that can eat up yards and control the clock. Auburn should start the season 1-0 after this weekend, but if Bielema's boys can limit the turnovers, they should be well within the big number posted in Vegas.

Penn State +2 @ UCF (in Ireland),  7:30 AM EST (Chad)
George O'Leary and his Central Florida Knights are coming off of a banner year and they have put in the work over the past few years to have sustained success. However, I still see a significant talent discrepancy between the Knights and Penn State. James Franklin took some marginal talent at Vanderbilt and made them a winner, and he inherits a Nittany Lions roster with plenty of talent. UCF has 9 returning defensive starters, but Penn State returns Zach Zwinak (989 rushing yards in 2013), Bill Belton (800 rushing yards in 2013) returning, as well as (deserving) media darling quarterback Christian Hackenberg. That kind of fire power returning will be a huge asset in week one. Penn State wins this one outright.

Second Down: Ole Miss -10 vs Boise State, 8 PM EST THURSDAY (Garrett) 

At first glance, most people would probably look at this line and think the only team to back would be Boise State. Remember, it wasn't too long ago that this team was knocking off a big opponent in a season opener every year: 2009 vs. Oregon, 2010 vs. Virginia Tech, and 2011 vs. Georgia. Factor in those memories with an Ole Miss team that isn't an SEC powerhouse by any means, and you start to wonder how in the hell the Rebels are favored by ten. However, the Broncos are a shade of what they used to be, evidenced by their showings against the good, physical teams on their schedule last year: Washington, BYU, and Oregon State. Boise lost each of those games by more than two touchdowns, and gave up an average of over 200 yards on the ground. Ole Miss should be able to run the ball behind their massive offensive line, and WR Laquon Treadwell has to be licking his chops when he looks across the line and sees a 5'9" corner matching up against him. The Rebels should score early and often, starting the season off with a double-digit win.

Texas A&M +10.5 @ South Carolina, 6:00 PM EST Thursday (Chad)

No Johnny, No Covers? 

I'm already on the record this season calling for South Carolina to slip back a little this season, and this Thursday night line is too good for me to pass up. I couldn't think more highly of Aggie Head Coach Kevin Sumlin, or his young Offensive Coordinator Jake Spavital. A&M will score plenty this year. However, this one will be a relatively low scoring affair. South Carolina will run the ball and attempt to hit some big plays off play action (my guess is against a Cover 4 look in the 2nd Quarter). The Aggies will attempt to pound the rock with talented backs Tra Carson and Brandon Williams to steal one on the road. South Carolina likely comes away with the victory, but A&M and Kevin Sumlin will keep it competitive. 

Third Down: UTEP +8 vs New Mexico, 8 PM EST Thursday (Garrett)

In a game that surely isn't on many people's "Must Watch"list, the Miners should be a very live dog on the road. Last year's game hung around UTEP -6/-7, and sixty minutes weren't enough to separate these two teams, with UNM winning in overtime. All that has changed between these two teams is the venue, yet the spread has been flipped on its head! It's nearly impossible for the Miners to be worse on defense than they were last season, and if they show marginal improvement in this contest, the Miners will have a very good chance to win this one outright.

Florida State -18 vs. Oklahoma State (Arlington, TX) 8PM EST (Chad)

It could be a long day for the Pokes if this guy gets rolling. 

This pick isn't an indictment of Oklahoma State, although they do have to replace 7 starters on both sides of the ball. This pick is all about how absolutely loaded Florida State is on both sides of the ball. FSU won't struggle to score, and they have some absolutely freakish talent on defense. This line is towards the upper bounds of what I think will happen here, but I'm confident nonetheless. Look for a young Oklahoma State team to hang tough for a quarter and a half, then FSU will blow the doors off Jerry's Stadium. FSU by three scores. 

Fourth Down: Ohio State -16 vs. Navy, 12 PM EST (Garrett)

This game got all the way up to -17 before Braxton Miller went down, and then bookmakers adjusted down to the -12.5 to -14 area, only to see the number climb to -16 again. Ohio State's defense will have had plenty of time to prepare for Navy's option attack, and their massive front four should wreak havoc on Navy's offensive line. Though losing Miller hurts, JT Barrett will have had a full two weeks to get acclimated as the starter, and the Buckeyes offense still put up points last season when Kenny Guiton filled in for Miller. The Buckeyes will be out to prove a point this week, and should be good for the cover.

LSU -4 vs. Wisconsin (in Houston, TX) 9 PM EST (Chad)
I know, I know, "Gary Anderson always covers." I'm not going to argue against that trend, and I don't have much to go on here other than gut. LSU has rarely gotten blown out under Defensive Coordinator John Chavis, and Wisconsin isn't exactly going to try and hang half a hundred. Both of these team will want to play slow and control the clock, and something tells me the Mad Hatter has some magic up his sleeve this Saturday. This one will be close, and can go either way, but give me the Bayou Bengals in Houston. 

Extra Point: Ole Miss OVER 31.5 pts, 6 PM EST THURSDAY(Garrett)

As I hit on earlier, Ole Miss should be able to score at will against Boise State. The Rebels will have major advantages on the outside with their WRs against short CBs. Combine that with a rushing attack that averaged 190 yards a game last season, and I can't see the Rebels scoring less than 35 in this one. Hotty Toddy, y'all.

There is some creepy and bad amateur football this weekend

Purdue v. Western Michigan UNDER 54.5 pts, 12 PM EST (Chad)
Nobody is going to watch this game because there's no reason to. I can't see either one of these teams lighting the world on fire, and this number is high enough I can't pass it up. Taking the under in modern college football is always dangerous, but this pillow fight likely ends under 50 total points.

  

2014 College Football Preview: Big XII

Sooners Defense Shines in the Land of Offense

For the first time in a long time the Big XII is underrated. Since the geniuses in Belmont Hall nuked this conference back to a poor man's Southwest Conference with the Longhorn Network (we all agree that was a bad idea now, right?), BIG XII fans have had to take the "Dan Beebe" and "Little Ten" barbs from our friends and the national media lying down. Thanks in part to OU playing the best game a BIG XII team has played since 2011 in last year's Sugar Bowl, this conference has some credibility nationally heading into 2014. However, the national media still isn't talking about this conference like they should. This league is deeeep. Everywhere you look there is talent, competent coaching, and enthusiasum (except in Lawrence, of course). Sure, there are existing heirarchies. Oklahoma and Texas will always be the big dogs, but an emerging upper middle class programs like Baylor, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State are starting to threaten the status quo. Even teams like TCU, Texas Tech, and West Virginia have showed recent flashes of impressive talent and long term upward mobility that should keep coaches in Norman and Austin up late into the night. Here's how we see things going in the most wide open, and least predictable, Power 5 conference:

The Bonafide Contenders

1. Oklahoma: It's hard not to put the Sooners out front to begin the year. Big Game Bob was long thought to be dead by the land thief faithful, especially after absolutely brutal performances against Texas and Baylor during the middle of the 2013 season. Then, a cold ass winter's morning in Stillwater changed everything. Whether you attribute it to an all too predictable appearance from Squinky, or Bob Stoops sneaking into Barry Switzer's house to steal his reserve supply of "Sooner Magic" (which is really just whiskey spiked with Everclear), the Sooners beat a talented Pokes squad and stole a BCS bid. The rest is history. Big Game Bob and has returned, and he is on a war march against the ESPN powered SEC death machine. Be careful what you wish for, Bobby--the Sooners are loaded and ready to make a run at the inagural College Football playoff. Mike Stoops has overseen vast improvements in the Sooner defense over the past two seasons, and with front seven stalwarts Charles Tapper, Erik Striker, and Jordan Phillips returning along with some young talent in the secondary, look for that trend to continue. In a conference known for it's offense, the OU defense will separate the Sooners from the rest of the pack. On offense, too much of the attention is being put on Knight and a potential dark horse Heisman run. This Sooner team will be a run first outfit, with tailbacks Keith Ford, Alex Ross, and Freshman Adonis Samaje Perine running behind a veteran offensive line. The schedule also lines up favorably for OU with tilts against Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State occuring in Norman (a mid-November date with the Texas Tech Fighting Goslings seems ominous, however). The Sooners don't need Knight to be the 'Bama slayer every week. If Knight plays within the offense and stays healthy, look for OU to be the cream of the Big XII and receive a spot in the playoff. We'll see how much of Switzer's secret stash Bobby's got left if the Sooners get matched up with the SEC Champion in Dallas.

 Switzer looks like he's had plenty

2. Baylor:  Like Art Briles' cornpone charm, there's not much doubt that Baylor is here to stay as a Big XII power. Briles has done a remarkable job getting the Bears into the perma-contender category, and are always amongst the country's elite on offense. This years Bears will once again be capable of scoring (unlike most of the students in Waco. Public School has it's benefits, you know). Bryce Petty is the real deal, and he will once again put up Playstation numbers getting the ball to receivers Antwan Goodley and Levi Norwood. Despite the departures of the speedy Lache Seastrunk and massive Cyril Richardson, the Bears will once again be a power team running the football, as Shock Linwood proved as a freshman he is capable of carrying the load. So what's new in Waco? Defense. Art Briles has silently assembled an impressive front seven that gives the Bears the potential to repeat as conference Champion. Bryce Hager is a tackling machine, and Briles has recruited massive, strong lineman to keep bodies off of him (the most important one being Nose Andrew Billings, a weight room legend before he stepped on campus in Waco). However, the player that should most excite Baylor fans is junior Defensive End Shawn Oakman, an absolute freak who seems like a created player on Madden. 6-9 280? Moves more like a fast linebacker than an NBA Power Forward? He can't be real, can he? I assure you he is real. Terrifingly so. If Phil Bennett uses this guy correctly, look out--he will be in the conversation for the big time national defensive awards, a spot in the first round of next year's NFL Draft, and the reason Trevor Knight suddenly develops a stutter on November 2nd. The Trio of Oakman, Hager, and Billings will anchor a solid Bears Defense and help keep Baylor in the conversation for the Big XII title, and just maybe a playoff birth. The Bears seem to lack a little in the back half of the secondary necessary to knock off the Sooners, but Briles' Bears will not merely be an also-ran.

Shawn Oakman will be a menace for the Bears this season.

The Volatile Second-Tier

3. Texas: Gone are the days of endless sideline clapping, worries of getting blown out in Dallas every year no matter how much talent was dressed in burnt orange, and the constant use of the phrase "scares you to death." The overdue and much-needed change in leadership many Longhorns fans had been clamoring for finally came to fruition in January with the arrival of Charlie Strong to The Forty Acres following Mack Brown's exit.

Texas fans will be praying to deities you can't even find on the Internet to keep David Ash healthy. 

Since landing in Austin, Chuck has been focused on changing the mentality of the program, getting rid of the country club vibes that had plagued it for years. No more saying "we're tough"...Charlie Strong and his players are going to let their product on the field show it. While this team promises to be physical and aggressive (see: S&C Coach Pat Moorer), there are lingering questions that make it difficult to say with confidence that Texas can compete with Baylor and Oklahoma for the crown. Can QB David Ash and LB Jordan Hicks stay healthy for an entire season to lead their respective units? Outside of soon-to-be-playing-on-Sundays Quandre Diggs, who will step up in the secondary? Will Daje Johnson finally be the consistent, explosive performer Texas fans have longed for since Ramonce Taylor was lining up all over the field? Who in the hell is going to reliably catch passes outside of the currently injured Jaxon Shipley, and Marcus Johnson? When you combine all of these questions (and the countless more Longhorns fans can talk to you about, if you're not into the whole brevity thing) with a tough schedule that features home games against BYU and Baylor, UCLA and OU at neutral sites, and very tough road trips to Manhattan and Lubbock (the Bermuda Triangle of National Championship Dreams), it just isn't logical to say this team can finish the season at the top of the bill. They'll most certainly compete, and are more than capable of beating Baylor, Oklahoma, and UCLA on any given night, but the consistency needed to win a championship will more than likely not be where Strong thinks it will be in the coming years.

4. TCU: As we touched on in our first blog of the season, we think the Horned Frogs are due for a big bounce-back year after going 4-8 last season. There is some reason for concern, as Gary Patterson had hoped that Texas A&M transfer Matt Joeckel would taking the starting QB job from Trevone Boykin, as Boykin's talents would better serve TCU at RB or WR. Further adding to Patterson's perma-frown, Joeckel hasn't won the job outright, as Patterson recently stated that both players will see time under center in the season opener.

The inspiration for Katy Perry's "Roar"

Despite the question marks at QB, TCU's defense can keep them in every game. Anchored by future NFL talent DT Chucky Hunter, the Horned Frogs return eight starters from last year's defense that gave TCU a chance to win every game (excluding Texas) despite the offense being second-to-last in the conference in points scored (only Kansas scored less, as both were only teams in conference with less than 200 points in 9 games). By our count, there are seven "sure wins" on the schedule this year, and if the offense can show up against the conference powerhouses, there is no doubt that this team COULD get to nine or ten wins. We'll know whether this team can wreak havoc in the conference race early, as TCU opens up conference play at home against Oklahoma on Oct. 4th, and at Baylor on Oct. 11th. Go 1-1 in those two contests, and TCU could control it's own destiny the rest of the season if the chips fall their way.

5. Kansas State: Unlike Texas Tech, you know what you're going to get from Bill Snyder's squad every year: a team that, despite not having anywhere near as much talent as other teams in the conference, is extremely well-coached, fundamentally sound, and will not beat itself. Just look at last year's defensive unit. The Wildcats only brought two starters back on defense in 2013, and only gave up .7 more points per game than in 2012. Based on the results he's achieved using recruiting hand-me-downs and JUCO transfers, we're convinced Snyder could build a skyscraper out of toothpicks.

The Wizard of Manhattan

That being said, if the Wildcats are going to take a step forward following last year's 8-5 campaign, they are going to need much more consistency from starting QB Jake Waters. Since Colin Klein took the reigns of the offense against Texas in 2010, teams have known what to expect from the Wildcats offense: running the ball, running the ball, and more running the ball. Despite losing Klein, Bill Snyder stuck to K-State's bread and butter, running the ball 72% of the time the Wildcats were on offense last year. When Waters was asked to throw last season, fans had no idea what to expect. He struggled mightily at times, completing less than 50% of his passes four times against conference opponents, including a 6-15 performance against Baylor, and going 10-24 against TCU later in the season. Following the close victory over TCU, he resembled a Big XII quarterback, evidenced by his numbers in the bowl win over Michigan (21-27, 271, 3 TD, 0 INT), and the close loss to Oklahoma (17-29, 348, 3 TD, 2 INT). Now that the job is his alone (Daniel Sams transferred in offseason) we should see more consistency from Waters. K-State will go as Waters goes, as the quality opponents on their schedule will load the box, forcing Waters to beat them by throwing the ball, which should delight star WR Tyler Lockett.  

6. Texas Tech: Over the past decade, no team has better personified the Big XII nature of "wide open and least predictable" than the Red Raiders. You know Tech is going to put up points and throw for as many yards as there are co-eds who would throw themselves at Kliff Kingsbury, but when it comes to accurately predicting which games the team will win, you're more likely to hit a triple-20 on a dartboard after downing seven margaritas from Chimy's than peg which team will show up every week. Last year was the perfect example. Hopes were high in Lubbock after Tech started 7-0 even though fans had no clue as to which quarterback would be under center every series. Then they got boat-raced in their last five games against the better teams of the Big XII, despite having two very winnable contests at home against Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Left for dead, many figured the late trend to continue in the Holiday Bowl against the high-powered offense of Arizona State, as the Sun Devils were favored by two touchdowns in Vegas. All Tech did was flip the spread, winning easily after jumping out to an early 21-point lead.

Beyonce is BAE to Kliff. Kliff is BAE to Tech co-eds. 

Much like last year, it's extremely hard to get a grasp on how good this team will be. Like every year with Tech, you start off by thinking this team should up points in bunches, with offensive mastermind Kingsbury drawing up the plays for returning QB Davis Webb, who threw for 20 TDs last season and had a monster performance in the Holiday Bowl. Then you remember the Red Raiders lost their top two pass-catchers from last year, as all-world TE Jace Amaro and WR Eric Ward are no longer roaming that insanely large campus (seriously, Texas Tech's campus is never-ending, as whoever built it thought it would be a grand idea to have a minimum of fifteen football fields between every building). You look at the defensive depth chart and see a ton of upper-classmen, but then remember that only four starters return, and that Tech's defense gave up over 200 yards per game on the ground last season. Turn your attention to the schedule, and at first glance it looks favorable, as both Texas and Oklahoma will have to venture to Lubbock in November. Given their penchant for upsetting these teams when they have thoughts of playing for a National Championship (2002 vs. #4 Texas, 2008 vs. #1 Texas, 2011 @ #3 Oklahoma as 28 point underdogs), it's not a stretch to see them upsetting one of the two this year, but you can just as easily envision them getting beaten soundly in both games. Just as easily as they could surprise teams and finish 3rd in the conference this year, they could also underwhelm and finish 7th. Until Kingsbury assembles something resembling a defense in Lubbock, it's unwise to project Tech as anything but a middle-tier team.

7. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys shouldn't have lost a game last year, with poor performances against West Virginia and hated in-state rival Oklahoma being the only blemishes on the Pokes' regular season ledger. Despite last year's disappointment, Mike Gundy has done an unbelievable job in Stillwater the past decade. Gundy has turned this team into a conference title contender year in and year out, but Gundy's bunch will not be in the hunt for a Big XII crown this year. OSU only returns 4 starters on each side of the ball, and will sorely miss the contributions of Justin Gilbert, Daytawion Lowe, and Shaun Lewis on defense. Despite key departures on offense, the Cowboys have proven to be consistently capable of fielding potent offenses in Gundy's tenure, and the second year for Offensive Coordinator Mike Yurcich shouldn't be any different. JW Walsh has had his ups and downs during his first two years in Stillwater, but he has shown enough magic to prove capable of making plays when he needs to. Playmakers Desmond Roland and Tyreek Hill will provide the occasional spark, but in the end the Cowboys won't have enough fire power on offense, experience on defense, or reprieves from Squinky to avoid being smack dab in the middle of the conference. The Pokes better hope Chief Osceola is happy with the sacrifice he is afforded Week 1, and spares the Cowboys any significant injuries, or this team could plummet even lower than the disappointing middle of the pack finish we have them projected for.

Squinky may have a larger presence than usual in Stillwater (recently featured on Biography's "Hoarders: Cigarettes, '90's Chevy Silverados, and Dispair.") this season.

"Staying above water, but only barely"

8. West Virginia: It seemed like the perfect hire. A whiskey chugging, all black wearing, gambling-addicted offensive genius coming to Morgantown to get the Mountaineers over the 9 win hump. Things went according to plan in Dana Holgorsen's first season as the head coach at West Virginia, with the 'neers winning the Big East and absolutely dismantling Clemson in the Orange Bowl. It looked like Holgo was the perfect coach to bring the Mountaineers into the turbo charged big XII, but Dana's first two years helming the Mountaineers in the BIG XII cannot be characterized but anything other than a disappointment. Holgo's teams have had some bad bounces and tough breaks, but they have been more competitive than people realize. 2013 brought a 1-point, double overtime home loss to TCU, and an equally demoralizing 1-point home loss to eventual conference co-champion Oklahoma (which featured a yards orgy to the tune of 400+ yards from Tavon Austin). 2014 wasn't any better, with home overtime losses to Texas and Iowa State. Considering how competitive this team has been the past two years, the return of steady senior Clint Trickett, and Holgo's offensive acumen there is reason for optimism in Morgantown. Mr. Everything back Charles Sims has taken his talents to the league, but the Mountaineers return a bevy of playmakers, including Dreamius Smith, Wendall Smallwood, Mario Alford, and Daikel Shorts. Pitt transfer  running back Russel Shell will also contribute immediately, with Holgo finding ways to turn Shell into a Charles Sims clone. Not only should the offense be more consistent for the Mountaineers this season, the defense should resemble something other than a broken flood levvee. While not the Defensive Coordinator by title, former Penn State DC Tom Bradley comes to Morgantown as an Associate Head Coach with years of experience coaching competent defenses in State College. His influence is much needed, and should help keep opposing teams total yards and points out of the stratoshpere. Despite all the reasons for optimism--and the Mountaineers will be a much better football team than they were last year--the rest of the league also got better. The Mountaineers simply can't get over the hump in their new conference, with other middle class programs like Baylor and Oklahoma State making massive strides over the past 5 years. Look for the Mountaineers mimic their coach at a wedding with an open bar-- Aggressive, Eager to Score, but in the end not enough stamina to finish to finish any better than the bottom half of the league.

 "Excuse me sir, the groom has instructed me to escort you out. He believes your behavior is beginning to make the other guests uncomfortable."

 "You took of your pants and tried to exchange underwear with all the bridemaids, except the hefty gal, who you called "Miss Piggy."

 "No, I won't tell him you called him that, and we don't take bets here."

 "My name is Tom, not 'Drink Butler,' or 'Sweet Cheeks' and no you can't have another BOTTLE of Jim Beam, you are cut off. They should not have served you the first two."

 "I'm just as God made me, sir. Now, if you will please put your pants back on and follow me, we have arranged for transportation back to your hotel."

"We are 30 Miles from anything that would resemble a navigable body water. There is no way you came here in your boat."

"Okay, maybe there is. I... I... Let me get my manager."

9. Iowa State: Like West Virginia, this team was way better last season than people realize. The 3-9 Cyclones suffered three devastingly close in conference losses (Texas by 1, Tech by a touchdown, and TCU by 3). It's hard to criticize anything about Paul Rhoads' tenure in Ames, having led the Cyclones to three bowl appearances as arguably the least recource-rich football program in the BIG XII. Rhoads continues to do things to improve the Cyclones and grow the profile of his program. This offseason's biggest move was the addition of Verbally Abusive the Hut, more commonaly referred to by his human name, "Mark Mangino." If half the ancedotes you hear thrown around about Mangino are true, he may not be a candidate for Man of the Year. This may or may not be because on the Hut's home planet they have no time for common courtesy or cardio. One thing is absolutely undisputable--Mark Mangino can flat out coach (far better than his brother and arch rival, Hoagie the Hut, more commonly referred to by his human name, "Charlie Weis." Seriously, what kind of Intergallactic scandal is Kansas football involved in?) Mangino was a part of the Miracle in Manhattan under Bill Snyder and Stoops' first 3 years in Norman before getting the chance to run his own program at Kansas. Mangino somehow made Kansas (yes, Kansas!) sort of passable as a football program, highlighted by a 12-1 2007 season that ended in an Orange Bowl (yes, Kansas!) victory over Virgina Tech. Iowa State returns some pieces on offense that could make this team fun to watch. Quen Bundrage and Aaron Wimberly can make plays for this team in the right situations, which their new coordinator will be eager to put them in. Mangino's presence in Ames should be exciting to Cyclones fans, but until the talent level rises on both sides of the ball at Iowa State, this team will be the little engine that could--competitive, hard working, but not capable of playing with the conference's upper crust (unless it's one of those magical Thursday nights in Ames).

 Verbally Abusive the Hut with his dear friend, King Obie the Hut.

Deep in Ramsay Bolton's dungeon

Calm down, Charlie. No chance in hell Ramsay gives you that sausage...

DFL. Kansas: There are basement-dwellers, and then there is Kansas. Given how far the Jayhawks have fallen since their trip to the 2008 Orange Bowl, it feels like it has been a century since Todd Reesing was slinging the rock all over the park in Lawrence. Last summer, head coach Charlie Weis referred to his team as a "pile of crap." That team went on to win three games, and only one was against a conference foe (West Virginia). This year, Charlie has told KU fans they'll have a reason to attend games in October and November, but when you look at the schedule, the scale tilts heavily toward the Jayhawks not reaching their goal of making a bowl game. Outside of their home opener against SE Missouri State, it's extremely hard to find any other game to mark off as a "sure win", especially after losing their top two returning RBs (the lone productive unit at Kansas in recent years) to season-ending injuries. Keep in mind that outside of the win against West Virginia, Kansas lost every other conference game by double digits, and only two of those were by less than twenty points! Maybe they can pull off an upset against either Iowa State or at West Virginia, but all signs point to this team being at, or underneath last year's win total of three games. Sorry, Jayhawks fans, your squad is destined to be the Reek of the Big XII yet again.

"I...am....Rock....Chalk....Reek"

Offensive Player of the Year: QB Bryce Petty, Baylor
Every time we tried to find a player that could take down the preseason favorite from Baylor, we found a question mark or reason that lead us right back to the senior quarterback in Waco. Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray are both incredible running backs for the Texas Longhorns, but they will split carries all season long, hurting their individual numbers.  Davis Webb could put up crazy numbers in Lubbock in his second year under Kingsbury, but Petty's numbers will likely be just as good, and Baylor will probably have the better record at season's end, putting Petty ahead of Webb.  After throwing for 4,000+ yards with a TD-INT ratio of 32:3 last season, and with there being no signs of Baylor slowing their offensive pace down this year, this is Petty's award to lose.

Defensive Player of the Year: DE Cedric Reed, Texas (Garrett); DE Shawn Oakman, Baylor (Derek)
We're split on this one, but agree that a defensive end will take home the award, given the increased potential for sacks in the pass-happy Big XII. Cedric Reed had a monster year for the Longhorns last season that included 79 tackles, 10 sacks, and 9 tackles for loss. Some doubt whether he'll be as effective without Jackson Jeffcoat on the opposite end, but with lots of talent returning on the defensive line, Cedric Reed should still be able to get in the backfield plenty of times this season.

Shawn Oakman is not a name being mentioned by many reporters or fans heading into the 2014 season, and this pick may look quite foolish in retrospect. That said, I'm a sucker for athletic freaks, and Oakman definitely fits the bill. He was occasionally dominant last season, and there's no reason to believe his production will decrease this year. Look for Oakman to have some Clowney-esque highlights throughout the Fall, to be the cream of an impressive crop of Big XII defensive lineman inlcuding Texas' Cedric Reed and OU's Charles Tapper, and to garner some national buzz come awards season.