The Four To Score: Week Eight

Lets Forget About "Bloody Saturday"

Bloody Saturday. Black Saturday, if you're into historical stock market references. Whatever you want to call it, last week was not pretty here at Rushing The Field. Chad West, CPA and I took a severe beating. Some would say our wallets caught Ebola, given the hemorrhaging that occurred. Others might say it was as bad as SMU's football team at the beginning of the season. No matter how you slice it or dice it, last week was BAD. Now, the only positive to take from this is that the only place to go from here is up. We're like Washington, before Sarkisian arrived. If we fall any further, we'll be in Dante's Ninth Level of Hell, being forced to watch every play of every noon kickoff game in the Big Ten. No one wants to go there. I'm pretty sure Big Ten fans don't even want to go there. We do want to head back to the glorious Winner's Circle, and hopefully these picks do just that.

Oh, and if you know where Chad West, CPA, is, that information would be greatly appreciated. I can only presume he's face down in a ditch somewhere.

First Down: Oklahoma -7 vs. Kansas State, 12:00 PM EST

This line opened up around -9.5, but has since plummeted down to a touchdown, likely based on Oklahoma's performances the past two weeks. I don't think those two weeks are indicative of where this Oklahoma team is, and especially the type of team it is at home. First, the loss at TCU spoke more about where TCU is as a team, as the Horned Frogs look like a serious contender for the Big 12 Championship after back-to-back phenomenal performances against OU and Baylor. With how bad Trevor Knight's stat line was that game, if he makes a few more completions instead of interceptions, Oklahoma probably gets the W there. Secondly, anyone who knows about the Texas-OU rivalry knew Stoops was going to play that game very close to the chest, a la 2004. Oklahoma knew that if it didn't beat itself, it would win that game, and though their plan was nearly blown up by an incredible performance by Tyrone Swoopes, the Sooners were able to leave the Cotton Bowl with the Golden Hat. You can bet Oklahoma will be looking forward to return to its friendly confines after two very tough contests, and though K-State is a very well-coached ball club, there is still a big talent disparity between these two clubs. Oklahoma has been phenomenal at home under Stoops, and with an HFA around 4-5, there is no way the Sooners are only 2 -3 points better than Kansas State on a neutral field. Big Game Bob gets a statement win at home, as the Sooners win by double digits and look to get back in the playoff race.

Second Down: Washington +21 at Oregon, 8:00 PM EST

I'm going back to the well this week, after the Huskies won outright for me at Cal last weekend. Oregon certainly surprised me with their performance in the Rose Bowl last weekend, and even though King Mariota is the best player in the country, this is just too many points to pass up for a very good defensive team coached by Chris Petersen. All-Galaxy LB Shaq Thompson, who has scored four defensive TDs on the year, and the DL's in front of him will provide a very stiff test for Mariota and the Oregon offensive line. Excluding the debacle against Eastern Washington, Petersen's defensive unit hasn't given up more than twenty points in a game. I don't think Cyler Miles will be able to put up enough points for the Huskies to pull off the upset outright, but this should be a pretty close contest heading into the fourth quarter. 

Third Down: Colorado State -5.5 vs. Utah State, 7:00 PM EST

Utah State has bounced back after a bad loss against Arkansas State, but the winning streak will end in Fort Collins this week. As I stated earlier this year, I love what Nick Saban disciple Jim McElwain has been doing for the Rams. They have only lost one game ATS this year, when they had to travel up to the land of the wacky blue turf up in Idaho. Outside of that, they've done just about everything you could ask for. They won outright as a dog on the road at Boston College, something USC couldn't do. They've covered big numbers at home. They also beat their in-state rival on a neutral field to start the season. While Utah State does have a win over BYU, that win's significance is diminished by the fact that Taysom Hill's season ended in the first half. Outside of that win in Provo, the Aggies don't have a good win to their name. Give me the proven cover machine here, as Colorado State wins by at least a touchdown. 

Fourth Down: Georgia Tech -1 vs. North Carolina, 7:00 PM EST

Yes, Paul Johnson's crew failed to get the job done for me against Duke last week, but there are a lot of good things to take away from that game's box score. If it weren't for three turnovers, the Yellow Jackets probably would still be undefeated, as they out gained the Blue Devils by more than 100 yards. Additionally, even with a bye week to prepare for GT's rushing attack, Duke still gave up 6.1 yards per rush. North Carolina's sup-optimal defense doesn't have that privilege, and they have given up points to everyone this year: 58 to Notre Dame, 50 to Clemson, and 70 to East Carolina. The Tar Heels are ranked 90th in Rush Defense and 113th in Total Defense, which should bode very wall for Georgia Tech. Additionally, the Yellow Jackets have absolutely DOMINATED North Carolina in recent memory. as they have won eight of the last nine in this series. Again, Georgia Tech should run up, down, and all over North Carolina. If the defense can get a few stops against the Tar Heels offense, GT should win this one comfortably. 

Extra Point: Arkansas vs. Georgia UNDER 55.5, 4:00 PM EST

Expect to get a heavy dose of smash-mouth football in Arkansas this weekend. Bielema loves to pound the rock, and with Gurley out for Georgia, you can bank on Richt playing it close to the chest on offense. Both defensive units have also looked pretty good the past two weeks, with Arky holding Bama to fourteen points, and the Bulldogs 17th-ranked unit pitching a shutout at Mizzou. I'll take my chances on the under in what should be a close contest filled with lots of rushing attempts and punts.

Garrett's Record: 17-15-3

Chad's Record: 11-24-1

Overall Record: 28-39-4

The Four To Score: Week Five

Conference Races Are About to Heat Up….HALLELUJAH! 

Rich Rod and Chad on Saturdays. 

Finally, we're getting into the meat and potatoes of the college football season. Forget the dainty amouse-bouches and appetizers, we're ready for steady massive helpings of conference showdowns every week from here on out. This couldn't come soon enough, especially after last week's mediocrity here at The Four To Score. Losing Florida +14 was a loss that felt like it should have been a win during the game, but after stepping back and thinking about the game on Sunday, Will Muschamp's boys had absolutely no business hanging around for so long. Shame on me for following my heart and trusting you, Coach Boom. Long gone are the days of you chest-bumping Brian Orakpo, instead replaced by defensive mishaps leading to lots of offensive yards for opponents. Similarly, Chad took the brunt of it thanks to the least likely of characters….Greg F'n Davis. Somehow, Pitt squandered a ten point halftime lead and lost to the Hawkeyes in a game that saw the Panthers win the box score by a margin of over 100 yards. Curse the Master of Bubble Screens for putting up 17 points in the second half and blowing the cover for Chad (2-3 last week), who just can't seem to get a bounce. Hopefully things start to look up for Chad, and I'll do my best to avoid a regression to the mean (2-2-1 last week) as we break down this week's appetizing card.

First Down: Texas Tech +14 at Oklahoma State, 7:30 PM EST Thursday (Garrett)

Call me crazy for it, but I'm backing Kliff's crew this week as they head to Stillwater. The Red Raiders defense has been an absolute mess to start the season, and the offense hasn't clicked as many have expected. Yet I think this could be the week where things start heading in the positive direction for Texas Tech. They had a bye week last week, and fired their defensive coordinator, which hopefully fixes some of their defensive ills like it did for Texas in 2013. That extra week to prepare for Mike Gundy's squad will not only help the defense get its act in order, but should have also provided Davis Webb more reps to get on the same page with his WRs. As in most games between these two teams, there should be points aplenty, but I think the Red Raiders will do just enough to keep this to a single-digit game in a "rally the troops"moment to start conference play.

Oklahoma State -14 vs. Texas Tech, 7:30 PM EST Thursday (Chad)
This one will probably bite me in the ass. This is wayyy to many points, and there's little chance Tech is actually as bad as they looked against Arkansas a few weeks ago. Nonetheless, I'm laying the points with the bright orange headed step children of Oklahoma State. The loss of J.W. Walsh doesn't sting as much as some seem to think. Inside the Cowboys program, their has been effusive praise for newly minted starting QB Daxx Garman since he got on campus, and his throw first-style is tailor made for what Gundy likes to do on offense. Garman's arm will let Gundy pound the rock when he needs to, and play action teams to death. Tonight, the Pokes won't stray to far from that model. Gundy is no idiot, and he's seen that Arky tape. Scheme can't fix how small the Red Raiders are up front. Childs, Roland and Tyreek Hill will set the pace for a competent OSU rushing attack, and Garman will deliver some daggers over the top on the DB's who come up to help on the run. Given the amount of points they're giving this one will be close, but Gundy and the step-children cover.

Second Down: Washington +8 vs. Stanford, 4:15 PM EST (Garrett)

Situationally, there are a lot of reasons to like Washington in this spot. First and foremost, this game reeks of a look-ahead spot for Stanford, as the Cardinal surely have been peeking at that date with #8 Notre Dame next weekend. Additionally, Husky Stadium is a very tough place to play, as Stanford learned two years ago when Washington pulled a 17-13 upset over the Cardinals. The Huskies will also be looking to avenge last year's heartbreaker in Palo Alto, a game that included a fantastic performance from the now departed Keith Price. On the stat sheet, you have to love seeing Washington +8 in Turnover Margin, and I think QB Cyler Miles can cause some problems for the stout Stanford defense with his feet. Ultimately we should see both teams pound the ball on the ground (Washington 4th in country with 51 rush attempts per game; Stanford averaging 34), leading to another very close contest (last two games decided by a combined 7 points) up in Seattle. Take Washington and the points in this one.

It's the simple things in life...

TCU -32 @ SMU, 12:00 PM EST (Chad)
Much to the disappointment of Eric Dickerson, the Ponies may very well be the worst team in college football. SMU's best performance of the season came in a 37 point loss to North Texas, who lost the following week to Louisiana Tech by 21 points. Ouch. Next up is a seemingly improved TCU team, where Gary Patterson is attempting to reconcile his defense-first ways with the need to score points in modern college football. TCU has gone to a spread-esque system helmed by Leach and Holgorsen proteges. The early returns are promising (despite the much maligned Treyvone Boykin still being the Horned Frogs signal caller) and TCU is certainly capable of hanging some points on SMU. TCU's defense looks dominant, and Boykin stays out of his own way enough to put 45 or so on the board. TCU big. 

Third Down: Texas A&M -9.5 vs. Arkansas, 3:30 PM EST (Garrett)

Last year's game in JerryWorld closed with Arkansas being a 13.5 point underdog. Looking at this line, I can't justify Arkansas being four points better in this contest. Yes, they got a big win against Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Tech offense isn't operating at a high level yet, and this same Arkansas defense got torched by Auburn for 595 yards in Week 1. The Aggies' offense is far more explosive than Auburn's in my book, and I think Texas A&M's defense has improved markedly from last season (held South Carolina under 100 yards in Week 1 when everyone thought Spurrier would run it down Sumlin's throat). Bielema's best bet to keep this one close is to shorten the game by running the ball and the clock, but that will go out the window should A&M jump out to an early lead. Kenny Trill, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Speedy Noil will just be too much for Woo Pig in Dallas, as the best offense in the land (averaging 613 ypg) will light up the scoreboard and win this one by double digits.

Yell Leaders…..The Absolute WORST. 

Texas -12 @ Kansas, 4:00 PM EST (Chad)
Seriously, Texas is not bad enough to have earned this line. BYU and UCLA are both decent. Kansas, on the other hand, is still really, really bad. The highest single game QBR for a Kansas QB in the Weis era? Just north of 60. Hoagie the Hut's still relatively extant reputation as an offensive guru is mind boggling. The aggregate of his teams offensive statistics at talent rich Notre Dame and Florida were exactly average. At Kansas?! Bahaha. "Decided strategic advantage," my ass. Texas has looked sort of meh on offense with Swoopes under center, but we saw marked improvement from BYU through the 4th quarter of the UCLA game. The Longhorn aren't great (as we are all too aware,) but they're not beat "Kansas by less than 10" bad (although Texas was THAT bad under uncle Mack in 2012). If Texas doesn't cover this...

Please no. Please.

Fourth Down: Baylor -21 vs. Iowa State, 8:20 PM EST (Garrett)

To describe last year's game as a "blowout" would be an understatement. The Bears had their way with the Cyclones, covering the spread as 33 point favorites in a 71-7 victory. Art Briles and Bryce Petty have shown no signs of slowing up this season, as they have dominated their inferior opponents by at least 42 points in all three games. Don't be fooled by that rivalry victory, as the Cyclones fit the description of "inferior opponent. Iowa State was absolutely dominated on the stat sheet by both Kansas State (-152 in yards) and North Dakota State (-253 in yards). Furthermore, there offense has only topped put up more than 17 points on one occasion (21 against Kansas State). This spread should be much closer to -28 given last year's spread, and how Iowa State has looked this season. Lay the points with Art Briles' offensive juggernaut.

Tennessee +17 @ Georgia, 11:00 PM EST (Chad)
Butch Jones' track record speaks for itself at this point. Successful stops at Central Michigan and Cincinnati preceded his current gig in Knoxville, where he's recruited well and his efforts are starting to show. A 24 point loss to OU two weeks ago wasn't as bad as it looked, and if not for the "Florida Menace" (Erik Striker) that game would've been much closer. Don't look now SEC East foes, but Tennessee is rising. They won't beat anyone they shouldn't this year, but they are sure gonna scare some folks. Georgia still has Todd Gurley, probably the country's best player. Tennessee will struggle to stop Gurley, as anyone would. Georgia should run the ball with relative ease all day. However, Georgia won't be concerned with style points during this conference game, and Mark Richt will be perfectly satisifed with an ugly win, which they get by less than 17.

Extra Point: Wisconsin OVER 42.5 points, 12:00 PM EST (Garrett)

Melvin Gordon will run for all the yards on Saturday.

Take a look at the box score from when South Florida played North Carolina State, and you'll see that the Wolfpack rushed for 315 yards against the Bulls. Now translate that to this matchup, where the Bulls will be taking on the best rushing attack in the country, who just happened to put up 644 yards on the ground against Bowling Green last weekend, and is averaging 7.8 yards per carry on the season. The Badgers should be able to gash South Florida (93rd in the country in points allowed) left and right, leading to a ton of points for the Badgers this weekend in Madison.

Wyoming vs. Michigan State UNDER 47.5 points, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)
I really hate to do this to you guys. Two college football teams who are paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for coaches should be able to muster 50 points between them. However, Dantonio and his minion Pat Narduzzi hate points and they don't really like to let people score them. Wyoming and Craig Bohl have been the absolute ugliest team in the country this year, win or lose. It will be a sad afternoon for points in East Lansing. 

Garrett's Record: 12-6-2 (66.7%)

Chad's Record: 7-12-1 (36.8%) 

Overall Record: 19-18-3 (51.3%) 

The Four To Score: Week 3

Conference play needs to get here...FAST!

Yeah, we get it Pat. We messed up. Now go back to eating hot dogs in the box.

As stated before, the college football season is a bit of a marathon, and you are bound to slip up at some points here and there. Last week, The Four To Score forgot to tie its shoes and fell flat on its face. Bad picks (Wazzu, Texas, and UCLA) and bad beats (Texas-BYU under, Stanford) brought us back toward the 50% mark after a stellar Week 1. Chad was hit a bit harder by last week's results, as he struggled to a 1-4 week. I'd argue that I was a bit more unlucky, as the only thing that kept me from a winning week was the Texas defense not coming out of the tunnel until the fourth quarter (game was 6-0 at halftime and destined to go well under the total, only for there to be 35 points in 3rd quarter). Enough with the griping though. The third week of college football provides us with an opportunity to make things right, and get back on that winning horse. Based on the card this week, we'll just say that we can't wait for conference play to get here.... 

First Down: West Virginia +3.5 at Maryland, 12:00 PM EST (Garrett)

Revenge of the Holgo

Though the Mountaineers got ruined (37-0 in this game last year, Holgo's boys are a much different team than the version we saw last year. They more than held their own against Alabama in the opener, and looked sharp again last week, even if they were only playing Towson. On the other side of the ball, Maryland looks like it might have taken a step back from last year. They haven't played anyone coming out the gate, yet still nearly lost to South Florida last week in a game that saw the Terps turn the ball over six times! Had they played a team with a competent offense, Maryland would rightfully be 1-1. The last thing you can do against a Dana Holgorsen team is give them more opportunities to score...Clint Trickett and the Moutaineers will do just enough this week in a big revenge spot to get the win outright. Prepare the couches, Morgantown!

The face of a man about to deliver a Country Ass Whippin'

Baylor -33 at Buffalo, 8:00 EST FRIDAY (Chad)

Baylor is rapidly becoming the Oregon of the Bible belt, exchanging the frank, to the point speed of Chip Kelly with the folksy, cornpone spinnings of Art Briles. Briles is a long undervalued master of Offense and his Bears have cruised through the first two weeks. Baylor leaves their new Boatgating Palace for the first time this season and heads to the Canadian Border town of Buffalo to play the Bulls. Honestly, I have no idea who Buffalo's current coach is, and I don't care. It could be the second coming of Hal Mumme and my analysis wouldn't change. Buffalo beat Duquesne by 10(!) in week one, then proceeded to lose to the Juggernaut that is Army by 8 in week two. Buffalo is bad, and Baylor is not. Baylor by more than 5 scores.

Second Down: Arkansas +2 at Texas Tech, 3:30 PM EST (Garrett)

I must admit that I'm a bit worried about the lights finally coming on against Texas Tech. That being said, this team in turmoil is going up against an extremely hungry Arkansas team desperate to end a ten game losing streak in games against meaningful opposition. Simply put, the situation and the matchup favor Woo Pig. The Red Raiders have been undisciplined (25 penalties for 204 yards) and couldn't stop the run against lowly UTEP or Central Arkansas (108th in the country, giving up 224.5 ypg on the ground). Conversely, Bielema's boys at Arkansas thrive on running the ball, as they are currently 12th in the country in rushing yards, and QB Brandon Allen is a lot better than most people think. The Razorbacks ground attack should allow them to slow the game, and keep Tech's offense from getting into a groove by keeping them off the field. Woo Pig narrowly missed out on the cover in Week 1 against Auburn, but they get the cover and the win here.

Unfortunately, the Universe will not deprive the archetypal Tech fan of a W Saturday. Wreck 'Em!

Texas Tech -2 vs. Arkansas, 3:30 EST (Chad)

Under very few circumstances would I ever pick against Texas Tech with conviction given the past decade plus of Red Raider football. At home, against a less than established opponent is not one of them.  Yes, Arkansas can run the ball. Yes, Arkansas has considerably more talent than either Central Arkansas or UTEP. But, let's be real. This is Texas Tech, Destroyer of Dreams, playing in their desolate tumbleweed and tortilla infested fortress. Cliff Kingsbury is no idiot, and will have his guys fired up and ready to play Arkansas. They will even be wearing Dykes era throwback helmets, which would make the Hogs running all over them all to ironic. Kliff has hired a non-idiot to run his defense (Matt Wallerstedt) who will stuff the box. Brandon Allen might be "better than people think," but better there is a bunch of room between "Literally Cannot Hit Broad Side of Barn" and "Still Not Very Good" (Allen is somewhere between those two right now). It may not be a blowout, it may not be convincing, but somehow the Raider's pull this one off. 

Third Down: Colorado +15.5 vs. Arizona State, 10:00 PM EST (Garrett)

As I stated in our season preview, the Sun Devils are likely to regress this season given the inexperience on defense (only 2 returning starters). This is the first game in which that unit will go up against a competent offense, as last week's opponent New Mexico is an option-based team, and Weber state is Weber State. Look, I'm not saying Colorado is a world-beater that will win this one outright. After all, they barely beat UMass last week by a field goal. That being said, the offense did look like a unit that had figured some things out, and this game is a massive revenge spot for the Buffaloes given what the Sun Devils did to them in Tempe last season (54-13). Expect to see some wacky things happen late at night in Boulder on Saturday, as Arizona State will be hoping to just get to their bye week unscathed before hitting the bulk of their schedule.

Oregon -43.5 vs. Wyoming, 2:00 PM EST (Chad)
Oregon scored 46 against Michigan State, the latest "Hey, the B1G doesn't suck!" team to get embarrassed. Wyoming is... I can't. Seriously, if my editorial director wouldn't have thrown a fit, I would've just put "BAHAHAHAHA" and then a picture of Puddles riding a motorcycle. But... Actually, whatever. I don't care...

Fourth Down: Penn State -3 vs. Rutgers, 8 PM EST (Garrett)

Happy times in Happy Valley right now. 

I was pretty impressed when Rutgers was able to go on the road to Wazzu in Week 1 and get an upset win as an eight point underdog. Then Wazzu lost last week to Nevada, and Rutgers' win against Mike Leach's crew started to look like just an ordinary W. Though Rutgers returns 16 starters and will be playing their first ever B1G game at home, I just think there is a distinct difference in talent here that will lead to a Penn State victory. I loved seeing how James Franklin's unit responded to some adversity in Dublin, driving down the field in the last 1:13 of the game to kick a game-winning field goal (not to mention UCF is a much more formidable opponent than Wazzu). Also, don't forget the added meaning every game now has for the Nittany Lions, as they recently had their postseason eligibility reinstated. For the conference race and bowl purposes, the Penn State can ill afford to lose a game against the team that many predicted would finish at the bottom of the B1G East. Hackenberg will shine once again for Penn State, as they win by a touchdown on the road.

Georgia -5.0 at South Carolina, 3:30 EST (Chad)
When we last saw our hero, he was sulking back to his headquarters at Augusta National, fresh off a swagtastic ass whipping from Kevin Sumlin and the Aggies ( I know they played East Carolina and won last week, but that ruins the narrative). Unfortunately, things will get worse before they get better for the HBC. I predicted doom for South Carolina this year and nothing I've seen in the first two week changes that line of thinking. They simply lost too much on defense to be a front line contender in the SEC. Georgia, however, has the look of a front runner all of the sudden, with Todd Gurley looking very much like an invitee to New York for the Heisman ceremony come awards season. Sandstorm and a little Tennessee trash talkin' had a hell of a run over the past 3 seasons, but Saturday marks the true beginning of the end for Spurrier's run at South Carolina. Our hero will next be relevant in 2017... (URL for SpurrierforTexas.com still available. NO, not for a coaching position, silly, for Governor!).

Extra Point: Notre Dame vs. Purdue UNDER 57.5, 7:30 PM EST (Garrett)

In the past eight years, this game has gone under the total five times (5-2-1), and only twice has the posted total been north of 57.5 (both contests went under). When you look at this matchup, a few things stand out. First, Purdue is &%^*&! awful. Secondly, this game reeks of being a hangover spot for Notre Dame after last week's huge rivalry win over Michigan. Purdue struggled to score against Central Michigan last week at home, and odds are that trend will continue against the team that shutout Michigan in primetime. That being said, this one will probably be closer than people think (Notre Dame is -28), as four of the last five games in this series have been decided by 11 points or less. Purdue struggles to score, but somehow hangs around for awhile in a game that stays well under the posted total. 

"I told you sir, we are out of midsize sedans. We have a great selection in the economy class still available."

Arkansas St. +17.5 vs. Miami (FL) 3:30 EST (Chad)
At this point, I wouldn't trust Al Golden to run an Enterprise Rent-a-Car (get it, he looks like he works there). Looking at comps, Arkansas State covered against a pretty good Tennessee team on the road in Knoxville last week. Miami is probably about as talented as the Volunteers, but is still breaking in a True Freshman at Quarterback. Arkansas States doesn't win, but they lose by less than this. 

Garrett's Record: 6-4

Chad's Record: 4-5-1

Overall Four To Score Record: 10-9-1

The Four To Score: Week 12

Conference Races Winding Down With Huge Games

We're getting closer and closer to the end of the season with each passing week, and the conference races are heating up with big games every week.  Look across the entire country, and you'll find at least one game in every conference that could have a major impact in determining who the conference champion will be.  Unfortunately the national race is nowhere near as compelling, as all signs point to an Alabama vs. Florida State game for the crystal ball, thanks to the Oregon "We Want Bama" Ducks forgetting that they had to play Stanford last week.  Without further hesitation, here are this week's picks.  

First Down: Texas +3 vs. Oklahoma State  3:30 PM EST

The Texas Longhorns probably should not have come away from Morgantown with a win, but last week's performance was a sign that this a team who has come together and simply refuses to lose.  Arguably the most important matchup in the Big XII this weekend, this week's game will likely decide which team plays in the Cotton Bowl, unless either team can upset Baylor in the coming weeks.  Oklahoma State has come on strong in the second half of this season, but I don't think they'd be a six point favorite on a neutral field, as this line would indicate.  Although the Longhorns have been very sketchy at home in the last few seasons under Mack Brown, DKR should be packed and rocking this weekend (not the norm in Austin), fueling the Horns to an upset victory.  Take the Burnt Orange and the points. 

Second Down: USC +4 vs. Stanford  8:00 PM EST

Stanford comes into this game feeling pretty good about themselves, as they are now the favorite to win the conference after last weekend's big home win against Oregon.  However, the Trojans have experienced a bit of a revival under Ed Orgeron, as they have won every game since he took the reigns.   USC will have all the motivation in the world in this one, as they have lost the last four meetings to the Cardinal, and have not won in Los Angeles since 2005.  This scenario reminds me a lot of the Texas vs. Oklahoma game earlier this season, and I'm not making the same mistake again.  USC ends Stanford's streak, catching the Cardinal in a hangover spot.   

Third Down: Texas Tech +28 vs. Baylor  7:00 PM EST

Baylor rolled against the Sooners last week, and Tech faltered at home once again in a big way, so the obvious thought is that this game should be a blowout. After all, Baylor has rolled through just about everyone this season.  Yet I think there is still a bit of fight in this year's version of the Red Raiders.  Now, I'm not saying that I think Texas Tech wins this outright, but I think they come out and keep it from getting ugly.  Give me Kliff's boys and the four touchdowns.  

Fourth Down: Auburn -3 vs. Georgia  3:30 PM EST 

Auburn is on a tear right now, while Georgia has underwhelmed this season due to injuries.  I'll be the first to tell you that I did not see anything like this coming for the Auburn Tigers, but they have been incredibly impressive in their last few games, even if they did come against middle-of-the-road SEC teams.  I don't see Auburn looking ahead in this one, as their QB Nick Marshall is a Georgia transfer.  It may not be a blowout like Auburn's last few games, but Gus Malzahn's gets the win here against an opponent they've only beaten once in their last seven tries.

Extra Point: Kansas State OVER 28 Points
The K-State offense has gelled over the last few weeks, and is rolling.  Though Texas Tech has some problems tackling, you have to give the Wildcats some credit for that performance last weekend.  Kansas State is averaging 34 points a game, and have gone over the total of 28 in four of their last five. Look for them to do it again here, against the dumpster-fire of the Big XII.

The Four To Score: 18-23-1
Extra Points: 4-5-1
Overall: 22-28-1

The Four To Score: Week 5

Conference Races Begin This Week

The fourth week of the CFB season took its toll on us in every way possible.  Not only could we not find a half-decent game on the TV, but we were also unable to find a winner.  Yes, once again Ray Charles could have probably made some better picks than The Four To Score was able to muster up.  Florida and Tennessee, two teams extremely inept when the ball is on their hands, scoring exactly 48 points to cause a push was the icing on the feces cake.  Thankfully this weeks' slate of games is filled with a bunch of dandies, so if the well runs dry once again, at least there will be some good football on the tube.  If only I could translate some of that success from the NFL down to the college level...No excuses though, and here are my hopefully-not-completely-God-awful picks of the week.   

First Down: Washington -9.5 vs. Arizona

Home teams have dominated this series the past three seasons, with the visiting school losing by double digits in every contest.  Two of the games were absolute blowouts, and despite both these teams being 3-0, I expect this year's version to follow the trend.  You see, this Washington team looks much more like the 2011 squad, not the lame 2012 version.  Furthermore, the Huskies have played much better competition than the Wildcats this season. beating both Boise State and Illinois by double digits.  Arizona no longer has Matt Scott under center, and I'm not sold on current QB BJ Denker.  Washington will be seeking revenge after last year's drubbing in front of its rabid fans, and Arizona will have to make the long trip up to the Pacific Northwest.  This one will probably get out of hand early, as the Huskies win big.  

Second Down: LSU +3 vs. Georgia

The Tigers barely missed out on getting the cover last week by giving up a late score, but I think they will get the outright win this week in Athens.  Though they missed getting the ATS win, LSU moved to 3-0, and I'm still convinced they are the most complete team in the SEC West.  Georgia has given up points to every team it has faced this season, as even lowly North Texas was able to put 21 on the board last week between the hedges.  Zach Mettenberger is emerging right before our eyes, and Georgia hasn't shown me anything to make me think they can stop LSU's balanced attack.  Give me the better defense and the points in Athens this weekend.  

Third Down: Arizona State -4.5 vs. USC

There is no doubt that the Sun Devils had to change their bed sheets after last week's performance in Stanford.  Yup, Todd Graham and his boys went up to Palo Alto and got rick-rolled, as the outcome of the game was decided about twenty minutes after kickoff.  However, the Sun Devils have a very favorable matchup this week, despite the name on the scoreboard being USC.  The Trojans were underwhelming on offense once again, struggling to beat Utah State at in Los Angeles.  USC may have a great defense, but with Arizona State's ability to put up points at home, Lane Kiffin's offense will have to muster up some serious offense to keep pace.  The home team has dominated this series the past three years, and I expect the trend to continue, as the Sun Devils are 4-2 as home favorites dating back to last season.  Todd Graham and the Sun Devils bounce back at home, and get themselves back in the race for the PAC-12 South.  

Fourth Down: Ohio State -6.5 vs. Wisconsin

The Horeshoe. Primetime.  Braxton Miller is back.  Yes, everything is in favor of the Buckeyes in this giant Big Ten matchup.  Last year's game went to overtime at Camp Randall, and though Gary Andersen's boys have looked impressive early on, this just does not seem like the spot to back the Badgers.  Ohio State's defense is rounding into form, and with this spread dipping under the key number of 7, the value is on the Buckeyes.  Don't be surprised if this game opens up tight and stays close, but the Buckeyes should pull away late, as Braxton Miller will look to impress after his absence due to injury.

Extra Point: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma UNDER 50 

I am going to keep this short and sweet.  Last year's game finished with 43 points, with offenses led by Everett Golson and Landry Jones.  Neither of them return, and neither team has shown an ability to put up a ton of points on a consistent basis.  Both teams boast very solid defenses, and they should be the units that dominate this game.  Everything on paper says this should be a hard-fought, low-scoring game.  Hopefully the defenses do their jobs, and the UNDER easily hits. 

The Four To Score: 4-11 

Extra Points: 1-1-1

Overall: 5-12-1.......El Peor. 

The Four To Score: Week 2

Lots of Chalk, Few Big Games

Week 1 has come and gone, but it was certainly a good one for those who read last week's edition of The Four To Score.  To briefly recap, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss narrowly covered, while Washington beat the daylights out of Boise State.  TCU was the only team that failed to get the job done, giving us a 3-1 record while leaving Gary Patterson to violently wipe the sweat of defeat off his face.  

Fear not though Gary, as another week of football is here to give your Horned Frogs a chance at righting the ship, and provides us with a chance at improving upon our 3-1 mark by going undefeated.  There are big numbers all over the board in Vegas, with very few big games on the docket.  That being said, after lots of analyzing, number-crunching, and caffeine-consumption, I've found four games that should provide winners for any of you that take part in that terrible, degenerate, government-frowned-upon activity known as "sports betting".  Now that Gary has gotten all the sweat out of his eyes, here are this week's picks:

First Down: Florida -3 vs. Miami

Miami is the savy underdog pick of the week for some college football fans out there.  After all, the Canes have 18 returning starters, and are getting points at home in a rivalry game, so it's easy to see why some people might think Florida should be on "Upset Alert."  However, these people are overlooking the fact that Miami was absolutely garbage against the three best defenses they played last year.  In games against Kansas State, Florida State, and Notre Dame, the Canes averaged 8.66 points a game.  Given that statistic, the coach Miami does not want to face is Will "Coach Boom" Muschamp, one of the best defensive minds in the game.  The Gators defense was ranked third in the country last season, and showed no signs of letting up in their game against Toledo last week, despite only returning 4 starters on that side the ball.  They say "defense wins championships", but it should really be phrased as "defense wins close rivalry games."  Florida's offense won't be pretty, but its defense will get the job done.  Lay the road chalk with the Gators, who have gone 10-3 as a road favorite since since 2008.

Second Down: South Carolina +3.5 vs. Georgia 

The Gamecocks and Bulldogs will square off this weekend between the hedges, with the winner becoming the favorite to win the SEC East.  Many pundits are picking Georgia to bounce back after their narrow loss to Clemson last week, but I'm a big believer in Spurrier and Clowney this year, and the value here lies with the Gamecocks.  Spurrier owns Mark Richt's soul, beating the Bulldogs each of the last three years.  Additionally, Clowney and Co. had extra time to recover and prepare for this week's game after an easy win against UNC last Thursday, while Georgia exerted a tremendous amount of energy Saturday night in that heavyweight bout with Clemson.  Though this year's game should be much closer than last year's rout, the Gamecocks still have the better defense, and are better suited to win a low-scoring slugfest.  I expect this game to come down to the wire, and with special teams play potentially deciding the outcome, you can't overlook the suspension of Georgia's starting kicker.  Give me Spurrier, Clowney, the three points, and the hook. 

Third Down: Michigan -3.5 vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame travels to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines in this "big rivalry" game that is not a "historic rivalry" depending on what day of the week it is for Brian Kelly.  Michigan has won three of the last four games played between these two teams, covering the spread every time.  In the one game they lost, which was last year, the Wolverines lost by only a touchdown despite turning the ball over six times.  Notre Dame may be stout up front with their defensive line this year, but I think the Wolverines have a definite edge at quarterback with Devin Gardner.  The Big House will be rocking on Saturday, and the Irish's luck has to be close to running out given how many close games they won last season.  Take the primetime home favorite as they look to get revenge in the last game of this rivalry to be played in Ann Arbor for some time. 

Fourth Down: USC -15.5 vs. Washington State

This line opened up at -17, but has since been moved down by bettors unimpressed with USC's opening week performance at Hawaii.  While USC looked very shaky last week, I try to avoid putting too much value into individual games.  Many people have the Trojans as their pick to win the PAC 12 South, and for good reason.  With Marqise Lee returning along with 14 other starters, the only thing this team needs is a serviceable quarterback.  I expect whomever starts this week to perform much better than last, given that the Trojans will be in the friendly confines of the Coliseum.  Over the past two years, USC has been phenomenal as a favorite at home, going 7-3 when laying the points.  On the other sideline, Washington State put up a great fight at Auburn last week, but turned the ball over three times, as quarterback Connor Halliday threw three picks.  A quarterback making errant throws is the last thing you want when Mike Leach is your coach, calling fifty pass plays a game.  Lay the points, as the Trojans should win big.

Extra Point: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia UNDER 58

Very seldom do I take totals, but I just can't help myself here.  Last week, the Oklahoma defense put up an extremely impressive performance, shutting out a Louisiana-Monroe offense that brought back eight starters.  OU's performance was very surprising considering the defense was considered a question mark before the season started, but they were very solid on tape.  Meanwhile, West Virginia struggled mightily at home against William and Mary, barely notching a 24-17 victory.  The Mountainers lost their three best players from last year's offense, and I expect that unit to have a very rough time in their first conference trip to Memorial Stadium.  With each team starting inexperienced quarterbacks, and the Oklahoma defense looking stout, I love the under here.

Best of luck, and hopefully we won't have to sweat-out any of these games like Gary up there.