The Four To Score: Week 2

Let The Good Times Roll 

"Nick, it was only one shot of Fireball with Holgo"

Despite the minefield of mega-lines that is Week 1 of every college football season, we were able to start the season off on the right track. It wasn't always easy (see: Bo Wallace's dumpster-fire first half), and some luck was needed at times (looking at you, Buckeyes), but there were some absolutely correct calls made last week as well. Thanks to incredible performances from Kenny Trill and Aaron Jones, Texas A&M and UTEP said "to hell with the spread" and pulled off road upsets despite being dogs of more than a touchdown. I've got a very narrow lead over Chad coming out of the gate, but it was a damn good week for The Four To Score overall, as our picks went a combined 7-2-1. There are a few more marquee matchups on the board this week, but as shown by UTEP, winners can be found in even the least appealing games. Lets jump into this week's picks, as we do our best to avoid a Wisconsin-esque collapse in Week 2.

First Down: Oregon -12 vs. Michigan State, 6:30 PM EST (Garrett)

Michigan State has all the conference championship hype behind it now that Braxton Miller has been lost for the season. It has also has a shiny Rose Bowl trophy from last season that most people are probably putting a lot of weight into when looking into this week's game. But Sparty doesn't know what it will be walking into Saturday when they set foot in Autzen Stadium, and they sure as hell don't have the country's best player on their team. Oregon has been fantastic as a home favorite over the past ten years, going 36-22-2 ATS. Marcus Mariota has also been a horse to back during his time on campus, as the best player in the country has gone 16-10 against the number. Michigan State's defense was fairly salty on the whole last season, but they only return five starters this year, and last year's unit gave up some pretty big numbers to two of the best offensive teams it faced (374 yds against Ohio State, 392 at Nebraska). Mariota and the Ducks' offensive pace will prove to be too much, as the Ducks make a declaration of intent in a marquee game that features the lowest Oregon home betting line since 2010.

Stanford -2.5 vs. USC, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)

Oh boy, this one is going to be fun. The margin of victory for whoever wins won't exceed single digits. There is not a single team in college football I have been more impressed with than Stanford over the past 5 years. I loved what Harbaugh did, and David Shaw has only improved on that mold. In 2010 and 2011 Chip Kelly's dystopian duck cyborg blood machine dismantled Stanford by at least 20 points, but the Cardinal have solved their Oregon problem over the past two years (two wins: 17-14, 26-20). I know USC isn't Oregon, but I mention them to show Stanford can hold an explosive offense down, as far as scheme goes (the likes of 19 year letterman Shayne Skov will be sorely missed, obviously). USC is a dangerous team, and they appear to be the cream of the Pac 12 West out of the gate. This one could go either way. but  the Revenge of the Nerds continues into 2014. Give me the proven, consistent Cardinal by a field goal.

Second Down: Colorado State +10 at Boise State, 10:15 PM EST (Garrett)

Don't look now, but Jim McElwain is building himself a nice little program up at Colorado State. The Rams started the season off on the right track last week, beating in-state rival Colorado by 14 in Denver. Last year's game between these two teams was a strange one, as the Rams outgained the Broncos by 189 yards, held the ball twice as long, but lost by 12 due to going 4-7 on 4th Down. Colorado State's offense showed no signs of slowing down last week, as they produced two 100 yard rushers in the victory over the Buffs. If the Rams can be a bit better in the turnover game, their rushing attack should be able to control the clock, and the offense will give them a chance to win outright.

No, we don't miss you.

Texas +1 vs. BYU, 7:00 PM EST (Chad)
This a complete gut feeling, and I want desperately to be right. As much trauma as the Horns offense has experienced over the past six weeks, it's hard to disagree with this line. But, I saw a different Texas team last week. A team that was actually playing football, and isn't going to lose if they can help it. The key cogs to a Texas victory haven't been suspended (yet). The defense will carry the day, and the two-headed monster of Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray will do just enough to keep Texas' head above water offensively. The culture change in Austin is real, thank god, and Texas escapes to Arlington undefeated.

Third Down: Washington State -3 vs. Nevada, 10:30 PM EST FRIDAY (Garrett)

And he covers on Friday. 

If previous trends continue, Washington State losing a close one at home last week to Rutgers should be a blessing for bettors this week. Mike Leach has been pretty damn good at getting his teams to bounce back after a loss, as Wazzu has gone 9-6 ATS in games coming off a SU loss. Furthermore, the Cougars have been good against the number away from home, going a perfect 6-0 last season, and 8-4 over the last two seasons. They may be bottom-feeders in the PAC 12, but Leach's team should have a distinct talent advantage this week when they head to Reno to take on a Nevada team that gave up an average of 500 yards per game last season. That type of defense is exactly what pass-happy Mike Leach and Connor Halliday want to see in a game they must win if they want any chance of going to a second consecutive bowl game.

I wish we missed you. I really do. But, we don't. We miss your pants, though.

Tennessee -17 vs. Arkansas State 12:00 PM EST (Chad)
Consider me a full believer in what Butch Jones is doing in Knoxville. He has won everywhere he's been, and the Volunteers were better than people realize last year. Tennessee looked better than expected against a competent Utah State team last week, and the Vols are still being underestimated. This team has talent, and they will put a scare into an over-hyped OU team next week. Plus, nothing Arkansas State is bringing to the table excites me. Literally, nothing. I have no intention of watching this one, but will be refreshing the box score frequently. Tennessee cruises into their showdown with the Sooners next week by at least 3 scores...

Fourth Down: Oklahoma -24.5 at Tulsa, 12 PM EST (Garrett)

Call me crazy for laying this kind of chalk on the road, but history is on my side in this one. Since the turn of the century, these two teams have met on the gridiron seven times, and in every game but one, Big Brother has hammered the hell out of Little Brother. Outside of the 2005 matchup when Bob Stoops had Paul Thompson and Rhett Bomar (CHA-CHING!) under center, Oklahoma has won every other game in this series by 31 or more! Bolstering my belief that another blowout is in the cards are the numbers Tulsa's opponents put up last year. Against the better teams they played in conference last season, Tulsa was annihilated. Against both UNT and Marshall, they were outgained by at least 275 yards, and were throttled by 34 points on the road at East Carolina. Hell, they just gave up 516 yards to TULANE last week, including 254 on the ground. Oklahoma's offense will run riot, and the Sooners' defense should do plenty to hold Tulsa in check. Bobby's boys win by at least thirty.

Pittsburgh -4 at Boston College, 7:00 PM EST (Chad)
I really hate to throw a boring, middle of the road ACC game at you guys here, but what else are you going to watch on Friday night? Boston College has essentially zero returning skill players on offense. Andre Williams has taken his talents and 2,200 rushing yards to the NFL, and his incredible season was all that kept the Eagles relevant for much of 2013. Pitt, however, has the look of a team who is finally taking on their head coach's identity. Paul Chryst was the Offensive Coordinator at Wisconsin during the prime of the Bielema years, when the Badgers just absolutely pounded the rock. Chryst returns two 800 yard backs from last year (James Conner and Isaac Bennett) and four starters on the offensive line. Look for Pitt to try and bulldoze their way to a seven point win.

P.S:  Boston College's addition of Florida transfer Tyler Murphy at QB is a total wild card here and could ruin everything. He looked good against a helpless UMass team in week one. This is my fourth pick for a reason, so proceed with caution. 

Extra Point: Texas vs. BYU UNDER 46.5, 7:30 PM EST (Garrett)

I have absolutely no confidence in predicting who will win this game, but all signs point to it being a game dominated by the defenses. With both David Ash and Dom Espinosa out, QB Tyrone Swoopes and C Jake Raulerson will both be making their first ever collegiate starts, which will probably lead to some trying times for the Horns on offense. Flip the script, and you can bank on Taysom Hill not getting anywhere close to the numbers he put up in last year's game in Provo, as the Texas front seven looked pretty damn nasty last week. Both teams will be desperate for points in this one, and barring D/ST TDs, this one has the making of a "first team to twenty wins" game...if either team even gets to twenty.

UCLA -23.5 vs. Memphis, 10:00 PM EST (Chad)
I'm not big on UCLA this year, but this is absolutely ridiculous. Yes, UCLA struggled against Virginia. Virginia had the horses to stay with UCLA on critical downs, and it showed some chinks in the Bruins armor. UCLA will be in some dog fights in league play, but not against Memphis. This is a classic case of people overreacting to a bad showing. UVA has some athletes on defense (seriously, is there a bigger "sleeping giant" than UVA?), and the scare they gave UCLA should provide the Bruins with some added motivation to prove they are the team the country thinks they are. UCLA runs away with this one early. 

Garrett's Record: 4-1

Chad's Record: 3-1-1

Overall Four To Score Record: 7-2-1

The Four To Score: Week 12

Conference Races Winding Down With Huge Games

We're getting closer and closer to the end of the season with each passing week, and the conference races are heating up with big games every week.  Look across the entire country, and you'll find at least one game in every conference that could have a major impact in determining who the conference champion will be.  Unfortunately the national race is nowhere near as compelling, as all signs point to an Alabama vs. Florida State game for the crystal ball, thanks to the Oregon "We Want Bama" Ducks forgetting that they had to play Stanford last week.  Without further hesitation, here are this week's picks.  

First Down: Texas +3 vs. Oklahoma State  3:30 PM EST

The Texas Longhorns probably should not have come away from Morgantown with a win, but last week's performance was a sign that this a team who has come together and simply refuses to lose.  Arguably the most important matchup in the Big XII this weekend, this week's game will likely decide which team plays in the Cotton Bowl, unless either team can upset Baylor in the coming weeks.  Oklahoma State has come on strong in the second half of this season, but I don't think they'd be a six point favorite on a neutral field, as this line would indicate.  Although the Longhorns have been very sketchy at home in the last few seasons under Mack Brown, DKR should be packed and rocking this weekend (not the norm in Austin), fueling the Horns to an upset victory.  Take the Burnt Orange and the points. 

Second Down: USC +4 vs. Stanford  8:00 PM EST

Stanford comes into this game feeling pretty good about themselves, as they are now the favorite to win the conference after last weekend's big home win against Oregon.  However, the Trojans have experienced a bit of a revival under Ed Orgeron, as they have won every game since he took the reigns.   USC will have all the motivation in the world in this one, as they have lost the last four meetings to the Cardinal, and have not won in Los Angeles since 2005.  This scenario reminds me a lot of the Texas vs. Oklahoma game earlier this season, and I'm not making the same mistake again.  USC ends Stanford's streak, catching the Cardinal in a hangover spot.   

Third Down: Texas Tech +28 vs. Baylor  7:00 PM EST

Baylor rolled against the Sooners last week, and Tech faltered at home once again in a big way, so the obvious thought is that this game should be a blowout. After all, Baylor has rolled through just about everyone this season.  Yet I think there is still a bit of fight in this year's version of the Red Raiders.  Now, I'm not saying that I think Texas Tech wins this outright, but I think they come out and keep it from getting ugly.  Give me Kliff's boys and the four touchdowns.  

Fourth Down: Auburn -3 vs. Georgia  3:30 PM EST 

Auburn is on a tear right now, while Georgia has underwhelmed this season due to injuries.  I'll be the first to tell you that I did not see anything like this coming for the Auburn Tigers, but they have been incredibly impressive in their last few games, even if they did come against middle-of-the-road SEC teams.  I don't see Auburn looking ahead in this one, as their QB Nick Marshall is a Georgia transfer.  It may not be a blowout like Auburn's last few games, but Gus Malzahn's gets the win here against an opponent they've only beaten once in their last seven tries.

Extra Point: Kansas State OVER 28 Points
The K-State offense has gelled over the last few weeks, and is rolling.  Though Texas Tech has some problems tackling, you have to give the Wildcats some credit for that performance last weekend.  Kansas State is averaging 34 points a game, and have gone over the total of 28 in four of their last five. Look for them to do it again here, against the dumpster-fire of the Big XII.

The Four To Score: 18-23-1
Extra Points: 4-5-1
Overall: 22-28-1

The Four To Score: Week 8

"Just Win, Baby!"

Let begin this week's column by saying I will gladly take a loss if it means my Horns smoked the Sooners in the Cotton Bowl.  That age-old adage of "never bet against your team" proved true last week, as Mack Brown and the boys came out and kicked in Oklahoma's teeth relentlessly for sixty minutes.  They proved me and the rest of the country wrong, and it was oh so glorious.  Despite that loss though, we had our third consecutive winning week here at The Four To Score, going 3-2 over the weekend, with the only other loss occurring in Washington.  Over the past three weeks, we've definitely been on fire like Daje Johnson's feet, going 9-4-2 in all of our plays, for a 60% winning clip.  The train is running full speed now, and we have no intention of it stopping.  

First Down: Clemson +3 vs. Florida State; 8 PM EST

Though Clemson has underwhelmed in previous weeks, lets not forget about that big win in Week 1 against Georgia.  This game against Florida State is very similar to that one, as the Tigers enter as primetime home underdogs once again.  Famous Jameis Winston has been fantastic for the seminoles this season, but this will be Florida State's first real test of the season.  Death Valley will be rocking just like it did when Georgia came town, and I'm expecting Jameis to get a bit rattled during his first experience in this kind of atmosphere.  Give me the more experienced Tajh Boyd and the points, as the home team in this game has won the last six outright. 

Second Down:  Washington State +40 vs. Oregon; 10 PM EST

This play is one based solely on principle.  Every line that has come out on the Ducks has been hammered by the public, and because the Ducks have kept covering, the books have pushed the lines higher and higher.  There is no way the Cougars should be getting 40 points here, as they are a fairly respectable 4-3 team, despite a big loss to Oregon State last week.  Remember they beat USC at the Coliseum, and gave Auburn all the could handle down in Alabama.  In their last three meetings, the Cougars haven't lost to the Ducks by more than 25 points.  Oregon should get an easy win, but I expect Washington State to keep it within the forty point margin, as teams coming off a big loss generally play much better the following week.

Third Down: Stanford -4.5 vs. UCLA; 3:30 PM EST

I love what Jim Mora and Brett Hundley have done down in UCLA this season.  However, this is not the spot to make a play on them.  Stanford is coming off an upset loss to Utah last week, meaning they are playing for their season this week against the Bruins.  If they lose to UCLA, their chance at a PAC-12 North division title is gone, as there is no way in hell that Oregon will lose two games this season.  Stanford has won the last five in this series, including two last season in back-to-back weeks.  David Shaw will have his team motivated, as Stanford comes out fired up to get the win and keep their season alive. 

Fourth Down: Notre Dame -2.5 vs. USC; 7:30 PM EST

The Trojans got us the cover at home against Arizona last week, but they are facing a much tougher test when they head to South Bend this weekend.  Though USC has had extra time to prepare for this week's contest, they are 2-7 in their last nine games ATS, and are 0-9 in their last nine road games ATS.  Notre Dame is coming off a bye week after beating a solid Arizona State team on a neutral field. Remember, that Sun Devil team is the one that beat the snot out of USC, and ended Lane Kiffin's career.  With how big Notre Dame is up front on defense, the Trojans' running game should struggle, and will it all be on quarterback Cody Kessler's shoulders.  USC may be better than they were when Kiffin is in charge, but they won't be good enough to get the win in South Bend.  The Irish win a close one at home, ending the streak of road teams dominating this series over the past four years. 

Extra Point: LSU vs. Ole Miss OVER 60 

In the last three contests between these two schools, LSU has put over 40 points on the board in each game.  This year's unit might be the better than all of the previous three, as the Tigers have put points up on everyone except the staunch Florida defense.  Ole Miss has given up 30 points three times this season, including 41 to Johnny Football last weekend.  The fact is that the Rebels can't stop an above average offense, let alone one as good as Texas A&M's.  LSU will probably get the cover, but the better play here is the OVER, as the Tigers might get into the 50's here, with Ole Miss putting some points on the board as well. 

The Four To Score: 11-13-2

Extra Points: 3-2-1

Overall: 14-16-3

The Four To Score: Week 7

Like Fletcher's Corny Dogs, Victory Tastes Good

The dynamite went boom in Week 6, as we went 4-1 against the number, and got our second consecutive winning week.  If not for those damn Sooners giving up a garbage time TD, we would have had a perfect week, but once again Bob Stoops put the screws to a Longhorn fan.  Thanks, Bobby, you're still a prick.  Despite our shortcomings early on in the season, we are now 6-2-2 over the last two weeks, a very respectable number for anyone in the business of CFB prognostication.  This week brings about my favorite game of every season, the Red River Shootout in Dallas.  Although this game is no longer the rivalry it once was when I was an undergrad (Thanks again, Mack), the weekend is still one of the best of the year, filled with incredible amounts of debauchery, fried foods, and wax cups full of beer.  Before I start rambling about all the glorious things you can find at the State Fair, here are this week's picks. 

First Down: Oklahoma -13.5 vs. Texas

What?!? A Longhorn fan betting against the Horns in the biggest game of the season?!? Yup, you're damn right.  This isn't about emotions, this is strictly business.  Bob Stoops always has his team ready for this game, and his boy's always take the field as if it's the last they will ever play.  The same can't be said for Mack Brown, who has a habit of clapping his way blowouts where his team is out of the game by halftime.  Texas has shown the world they can't compete with the big boys this season, and this Oklahoma defense should wreak havoc on Case McCoy.  Mack has only beaten Bobby once without Vince Young or Colt McCoy under center, and though this game may not be as bad as the past two, Oklahoma should still win handily.  Consider this the first nail in Mack's coffin. 

Second Down: Washington +14 vs. Oregon

This game is much more than just the battle of the two best helmets in the country.  Puddles better look out, as the Huskies are Oregon's first legitimate opponent of the season.  If you watched the game in Palo Alto last week, you saw that Washington was the better team on the night, and should've come away with the victory.  Stanford was lucky to escape with a victory, mostly because of how poorly the Huskies performed in the kick return game.  Keith Price is flat out balling right now, as he has returned to the form of his first two seasons on campus.  The Ducks have to travel to Washington this week, and though I have them as the top team in the country right now, there is no way they should be laying this many points against this good of a team.  Keep in mind, the Huskies only lost by 21 at Oregon last year, and they are a much better team this season.  Husky Stadium should be rocking, and Washington should keep it within the number, potentially even getting the outright win.  

Third Down: USC -6.5 vs. Arizona (Thursday night game)

Both teams are coming off a bye heading into this week's game, but these two teams are headed in opposite directions.  USC made the right move by firing Lane Kiffin, and though Ed Orgeron isn't the greatest interim head coach, the team should be headed in a positive direction now that they've gotten rid of that toxic Kiffin poison.  Arizona, on the other hand, still has BJ Denker under center, and anyone who watched him against Washington knows the Wildcats aren't going far with him under center.  He is extremely limited in the passing game, and should be the perfect matchup for a USC defense looking to get back on track after the debacle in Tempe.  It may not be pretty, but the Trojans should win by double digits in this revenge scenario.  

Fourth Down: LSU -6.5 vs. Florida

Don't get me wrong, I love Will Muschamp's defense.  However, I hate an inexperienced quarterback traveling to Death Valley.  Though Tyler Murphy had a pretty solid game against Arkansas at The Swamp last week, there is a big difference between the friendly confines of home, and the hostile atmosphere of Tiger Stadium.  LSU's defense is nowhere near as good as last year's unit, but they should have some success at home against Murphy, who is starting only his second game.  Mettenberger's numbers may not be as gaudy as they have been the last few weeks due to the stingy Florida defense, but he should produce just enough to get LSU backers the cover.  

Extra Point: Baylor 1H -9

Last week's extra point of Baylor OVER 49 might have been the easiest play in the history of the universe, as the Bears went over the total in the second quarter.  Art Briles' team is for real, and not only have they demolished every team they've gone up against, they've also hammered every line Vegas has set, as they have covered their last ten and gone over the total in 23 of their last 29!  Kansas State will probably be missing their top two receivers this week, and their defense gave up over thirty points to two unimpressive offenses in Oklahoma State and Texas.  Baylor should cover the 1H line easily again, and taking the full game at -17.5 might also be a strong play given their recent track record of blowing teams out.  Also, their uniform and helmet for last week's game (pictured above) was one of the filthiest I've ever seen in college football.  Other than beer drinking, it seems they are doing everything right in Waco these days.     

The Four To Score: 9-12-2

Extra Points: 2-2-1

Overall: 11-14-3

The Four To Score: Week 5

Conference Races Begin This Week

The fourth week of the CFB season took its toll on us in every way possible.  Not only could we not find a half-decent game on the TV, but we were also unable to find a winner.  Yes, once again Ray Charles could have probably made some better picks than The Four To Score was able to muster up.  Florida and Tennessee, two teams extremely inept when the ball is on their hands, scoring exactly 48 points to cause a push was the icing on the feces cake.  Thankfully this weeks' slate of games is filled with a bunch of dandies, so if the well runs dry once again, at least there will be some good football on the tube.  If only I could translate some of that success from the NFL down to the college level...No excuses though, and here are my hopefully-not-completely-God-awful picks of the week.   

First Down: Washington -9.5 vs. Arizona

Home teams have dominated this series the past three seasons, with the visiting school losing by double digits in every contest.  Two of the games were absolute blowouts, and despite both these teams being 3-0, I expect this year's version to follow the trend.  You see, this Washington team looks much more like the 2011 squad, not the lame 2012 version.  Furthermore, the Huskies have played much better competition than the Wildcats this season. beating both Boise State and Illinois by double digits.  Arizona no longer has Matt Scott under center, and I'm not sold on current QB BJ Denker.  Washington will be seeking revenge after last year's drubbing in front of its rabid fans, and Arizona will have to make the long trip up to the Pacific Northwest.  This one will probably get out of hand early, as the Huskies win big.  

Second Down: LSU +3 vs. Georgia

The Tigers barely missed out on getting the cover last week by giving up a late score, but I think they will get the outright win this week in Athens.  Though they missed getting the ATS win, LSU moved to 3-0, and I'm still convinced they are the most complete team in the SEC West.  Georgia has given up points to every team it has faced this season, as even lowly North Texas was able to put 21 on the board last week between the hedges.  Zach Mettenberger is emerging right before our eyes, and Georgia hasn't shown me anything to make me think they can stop LSU's balanced attack.  Give me the better defense and the points in Athens this weekend.  

Third Down: Arizona State -4.5 vs. USC

There is no doubt that the Sun Devils had to change their bed sheets after last week's performance in Stanford.  Yup, Todd Graham and his boys went up to Palo Alto and got rick-rolled, as the outcome of the game was decided about twenty minutes after kickoff.  However, the Sun Devils have a very favorable matchup this week, despite the name on the scoreboard being USC.  The Trojans were underwhelming on offense once again, struggling to beat Utah State at in Los Angeles.  USC may have a great defense, but with Arizona State's ability to put up points at home, Lane Kiffin's offense will have to muster up some serious offense to keep pace.  The home team has dominated this series the past three years, and I expect the trend to continue, as the Sun Devils are 4-2 as home favorites dating back to last season.  Todd Graham and the Sun Devils bounce back at home, and get themselves back in the race for the PAC-12 South.  

Fourth Down: Ohio State -6.5 vs. Wisconsin

The Horeshoe. Primetime.  Braxton Miller is back.  Yes, everything is in favor of the Buckeyes in this giant Big Ten matchup.  Last year's game went to overtime at Camp Randall, and though Gary Andersen's boys have looked impressive early on, this just does not seem like the spot to back the Badgers.  Ohio State's defense is rounding into form, and with this spread dipping under the key number of 7, the value is on the Buckeyes.  Don't be surprised if this game opens up tight and stays close, but the Buckeyes should pull away late, as Braxton Miller will look to impress after his absence due to injury.

Extra Point: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma UNDER 50 

I am going to keep this short and sweet.  Last year's game finished with 43 points, with offenses led by Everett Golson and Landry Jones.  Neither of them return, and neither team has shown an ability to put up a ton of points on a consistent basis.  Both teams boast very solid defenses, and they should be the units that dominate this game.  Everything on paper says this should be a hard-fought, low-scoring game.  Hopefully the defenses do their jobs, and the UNDER easily hits. 

The Four To Score: 4-11 

Extra Points: 1-1-1

Overall: 5-12-1.......El Peor. 

The Four To Score: Week 2

Lots of Chalk, Few Big Games

Week 1 has come and gone, but it was certainly a good one for those who read last week's edition of The Four To Score.  To briefly recap, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss narrowly covered, while Washington beat the daylights out of Boise State.  TCU was the only team that failed to get the job done, giving us a 3-1 record while leaving Gary Patterson to violently wipe the sweat of defeat off his face.  

Fear not though Gary, as another week of football is here to give your Horned Frogs a chance at righting the ship, and provides us with a chance at improving upon our 3-1 mark by going undefeated.  There are big numbers all over the board in Vegas, with very few big games on the docket.  That being said, after lots of analyzing, number-crunching, and caffeine-consumption, I've found four games that should provide winners for any of you that take part in that terrible, degenerate, government-frowned-upon activity known as "sports betting".  Now that Gary has gotten all the sweat out of his eyes, here are this week's picks:

First Down: Florida -3 vs. Miami

Miami is the savy underdog pick of the week for some college football fans out there.  After all, the Canes have 18 returning starters, and are getting points at home in a rivalry game, so it's easy to see why some people might think Florida should be on "Upset Alert."  However, these people are overlooking the fact that Miami was absolutely garbage against the three best defenses they played last year.  In games against Kansas State, Florida State, and Notre Dame, the Canes averaged 8.66 points a game.  Given that statistic, the coach Miami does not want to face is Will "Coach Boom" Muschamp, one of the best defensive minds in the game.  The Gators defense was ranked third in the country last season, and showed no signs of letting up in their game against Toledo last week, despite only returning 4 starters on that side the ball.  They say "defense wins championships", but it should really be phrased as "defense wins close rivalry games."  Florida's offense won't be pretty, but its defense will get the job done.  Lay the road chalk with the Gators, who have gone 10-3 as a road favorite since since 2008.

Second Down: South Carolina +3.5 vs. Georgia 

The Gamecocks and Bulldogs will square off this weekend between the hedges, with the winner becoming the favorite to win the SEC East.  Many pundits are picking Georgia to bounce back after their narrow loss to Clemson last week, but I'm a big believer in Spurrier and Clowney this year, and the value here lies with the Gamecocks.  Spurrier owns Mark Richt's soul, beating the Bulldogs each of the last three years.  Additionally, Clowney and Co. had extra time to recover and prepare for this week's game after an easy win against UNC last Thursday, while Georgia exerted a tremendous amount of energy Saturday night in that heavyweight bout with Clemson.  Though this year's game should be much closer than last year's rout, the Gamecocks still have the better defense, and are better suited to win a low-scoring slugfest.  I expect this game to come down to the wire, and with special teams play potentially deciding the outcome, you can't overlook the suspension of Georgia's starting kicker.  Give me Spurrier, Clowney, the three points, and the hook. 

Third Down: Michigan -3.5 vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame travels to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines in this "big rivalry" game that is not a "historic rivalry" depending on what day of the week it is for Brian Kelly.  Michigan has won three of the last four games played between these two teams, covering the spread every time.  In the one game they lost, which was last year, the Wolverines lost by only a touchdown despite turning the ball over six times.  Notre Dame may be stout up front with their defensive line this year, but I think the Wolverines have a definite edge at quarterback with Devin Gardner.  The Big House will be rocking on Saturday, and the Irish's luck has to be close to running out given how many close games they won last season.  Take the primetime home favorite as they look to get revenge in the last game of this rivalry to be played in Ann Arbor for some time. 

Fourth Down: USC -15.5 vs. Washington State

This line opened up at -17, but has since been moved down by bettors unimpressed with USC's opening week performance at Hawaii.  While USC looked very shaky last week, I try to avoid putting too much value into individual games.  Many people have the Trojans as their pick to win the PAC 12 South, and for good reason.  With Marqise Lee returning along with 14 other starters, the only thing this team needs is a serviceable quarterback.  I expect whomever starts this week to perform much better than last, given that the Trojans will be in the friendly confines of the Coliseum.  Over the past two years, USC has been phenomenal as a favorite at home, going 7-3 when laying the points.  On the other sideline, Washington State put up a great fight at Auburn last week, but turned the ball over three times, as quarterback Connor Halliday threw three picks.  A quarterback making errant throws is the last thing you want when Mike Leach is your coach, calling fifty pass plays a game.  Lay the points, as the Trojans should win big.

Extra Point: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia UNDER 58

Very seldom do I take totals, but I just can't help myself here.  Last week, the Oklahoma defense put up an extremely impressive performance, shutting out a Louisiana-Monroe offense that brought back eight starters.  OU's performance was very surprising considering the defense was considered a question mark before the season started, but they were very solid on tape.  Meanwhile, West Virginia struggled mightily at home against William and Mary, barely notching a 24-17 victory.  The Mountainers lost their three best players from last year's offense, and I expect that unit to have a very rough time in their first conference trip to Memorial Stadium.  With each team starting inexperienced quarterbacks, and the Oklahoma defense looking stout, I love the under here.

Best of luck, and hopefully we won't have to sweat-out any of these games like Gary up there.