The Four To Score: Week Four

A Tale of Two Bloggers 

"This is how I kick some Richt……"

We're roughly a fifth of the way through the season, and already the cream is rising to the top. Last week proved to be very rough for Chad West, CPA, as he dug himself a hole that he may not be able to get out of. Granted, that's what he deserves for taking Mark Richt against our beloved Steve Spurrier. Once again, the Head Ball Coach proved he completely owns Richt's poor soul, and has buried it somewhere so deep in SEC land that Captain Jack Sparrow wouldn't be able to find it. Thankfully there  is another blogger on this site, who has able to carry Chad's dead weight up a hill in two feet of snow. Hackenberg and Co. could have made it a 5-0 week for the site's blogger above .500, but something tells me he'll settle for a 4-0-1 mark any day of the week. Beyond the triumphs and tragedies of last week, we can't tell you how excited we are that Week Four has finally arrived. Conference races are set to begin, bringing smaller lines and better matchups into play. That also means SEC teams will begin playing each other on a weekly basis, meaning Paul Finebaum's callers will only get more animated and make his show can't-miss radio/television. Before Chad kicks the stool out from beneath his feet, lets get into this week's picks. 

First Down: Florida +14.5 @ Alabama, 3:30 PM EST (Garrett)

"I'm telling you Nick, college football NEEDS us."

Florida can't hide from its record ATS in recent years…It's been horrible. Since Muschamp arrived in Gainesville, the Gators are a very underwhelming 15-22-1 against the number. That being said, I think there's a lot to like about Florida in this spot. Many will look at least week's game and see it as an embarrassing close win over Kentucky, but I think the Wildcats are a lot better than people give them credit for, and surviving that close of a battle should help a team who struggled to win games last season. Matchup wise, you have to like this Florida defense that returns 7 starters against Alabama's duo of unproven QBs. Coker and Sims have yet to play a real defense, and you can bank on Muschamp getting his defensive unit in the best positions possible. Muschamp probably won't be able to pull off the upset in Tuscaloosa, but this game should be a low-scoring, ugly affair leading to a Florida cover. Give me Coach Boom, two touchdowns, and the hook.

Nebraska - 7.5 vs. Miami, 8:00 PM EST (Chad)
From any point from the mid 80's to when these teams met for the 2001 National Championship, the public would be drooling over this matchup. Boy, awful coaches sure can wreck a program (Hi Bill Callahan! And you too, Al Golden). Nebraska looked BAD against McNeese State a few weeks ago, and if not for some late game heroics from Ameer Abdullah they would've suffered a humiliating loss. But, they survived to beat the doors off of Fresno State last week, the same Fresno State team USC beat less soundly to somehow become a playoff front runner (Bahahaha). Arkansas State ran the ball on Miami last week, after Louisville did the same in Week 1. Bo Pelini won't over think this one. He'll let Miami true freshman QB Brad Kaaya make mistakes, and absolutely pound Ameer Abdullah and Imani Cross all day. Only an awful choke job by Nebraska could screw this one up. No way that happens with this man at the helm, right?

Pictured provided without commentary.

Second Down: Mississippi State +9.5 @ LSU, 7:00 PM EST (Garrett)

Dak The Destroyer

As tough as it is to play a night game in Death Valley, I'm not sold on the LSU Tigers this year. They struggled mightily against Wisconsin, as the Badgers were able to pound the rock against the Tigers (39 attempts for 268 yards, 6.9 ypc). Much like Alabama, I'm also not sold on LSU at the QB position, as Anthony Jennings has been unimpressive (9-21 against Wisconsin, only a 52% completion rate on the season). Conversely, I'm a big fan of Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott, and think that Dan Mullen's offense should be able to put up some points against the Tigers. The Bulldogs defense did look shaky against UAB, but if they can get some stops here and there, Mullen will have a shot at a signature upset win. Expect the Bulldogs to stack the box and force Jennings to beat them with his arm, which should lead to a very close game. (Wait as long as you can if you're playing this game, and hopefully some +10's will show up on the board).

Ask Texas about facing Taysom--the bionic knee'd Alpha Mormon.

BYU -14 vs. Virginia, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)

Despite what the scoreboard said two weeks ago, UVA's win against Richmond left something to be desired. The Spiders gained nearly 100 more yards than the Cavaliers, and if not for 3 costly Richmond turnovers it would have been a very different game (obviously). All told, Virginia has been abysmal on offense all season, barely eclipsing 300 yards a game. BYU got into a dog fight with a pretty bad Houston squad last Friday, but pulled off a win thanks to a 16 point first quarter lead and Taysom Hill's ability to move the chains. Honestly, the Cougars got bored and a last second Houston Hail Mary to end the half made for a deceivingly close margin at half time. BYU's defense has been stout all year. Though the Cougars haven't played anything that resembles a competent offense, the hapless Cavialers are more akin to UConn than they are Oregon, and won't be able to move the ball in any meaningful way. UVA settles for a couple field goals and maybe a score, while BYU and Mormon Tebow move the chains all day in a comfortable win.

Third Down: Oklahoma -7.5 @ West Virginia, 7:30 PM EST (Garrett)

I loved watching the Mountaineers get a cover (and outright win) for me last week, and it seems everyone in the country is in love with Holgo's boys now too. The line for this one opened up around -12.5, but has plummeted over the week down to Oklahoma -7.5. While West Virginia is much better than we expected them to be at the beginning of the season, I just can't see this game being decided by less than double digits. Clint Trickett has looked impressive, and crazy things can happen in Morgantown, but it appears that Good Old Bobby Stoops has his early 2000's swagger back. The Sooners defense has been as good as advertised, and Trevor Knight looked like he was playing Alabama all over again last weekend (20-33, 308 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT). You also can't overlook how WVU performed against Bama's rushing attack (288 yds), as the Sooners bring a damn good running game to the table. Oklahoma experienced a scare in Morgantown two years ago, eliminating the chance of Bobby's crew overlooking this game on the schedule. Though I will be praying for this to get down to a flat -7, the Sooners should win comfortably, as the defense finds a way to slow down Holgo Magic. (There's no slowing down Switzer drinking Sooner Magic, though.)

Here at Rushing the Field, we are completely shocked Iowa sucks...

Pitt -6 vs. Iowa 11:00 PM EST (Chad)
The public perception of these teams couldn't get further apart. Iowa is a part of the floundering B1G, and has had a massive part of the whole country souring on the conference.  Unconvincing victories against Northern Iowa and Ball State were followed up by a loss to in-state rival Iowa State. The perception is right--Iowa sucks, and Kirk Ferentz has been stealing money for the better part of a decade. Pitt is only two weeks off of beating Boston College, who downed the mighty Men of Troy last week. Pitt is running the ball at will and if James Conner stays healthy he'll probably lead the ACC in rushing. As I noted a few weeks ago, the Panthers are becoming a team that matches the personality of their coach, famed ground and pound guru Paul Chryst. Pitt continues their march towards eventually becoming overrated and covers.

Fourth Down: New Mexico -3 @ New Mexico State, 8:00 PM EST (Garrett)

Ah yes, the Rio Grande Rivalry. Much like green chile and methamphetamine, this rivalry is held dearly in the hearts of New Mexicans. The games are often closely contested, with animosity abound throughout the stadiums, as members of the state cheer on their respective storied programs. Sadly, I'm speaking about the basketball version of this rivalry. Yes, it's football season, which means we have to endure another one of these meaningless affairs, as the two programs of New Mexico wander aimlessly through the land of college football's favelas. Yes, my friends….Games like these are the reason point spreads were invented. For some reason, the Lobos of Walter White-ville are only favored by a field goal. If you remember earlier this season, UNM was favored by 8 against UTEP at home, meaning the Lobos would be roughly 4-5 points better than the Miners on a neutral field in Vegas' eyes. New Mexico State was a 10.5 point underdog in El Paso last week, making the Aggies about 5.5 to 7 points worse than the Miners on a neutral field. From a line-making perspective, this line doesn't make much sense to me, as the Lobos should be a minimum of a 9 point favorite on a neutral field based on the previous games involving the three border area teams (even with some adjustment from preseason ratings). New Mexico State hasn't beaten anyone noteworthy. They also couldn't stop the run against UTEP last week (Aggies gave up 334 yards), and that's just what the Lobos will do with their option attack. New Mexico gets the W and the cover in The City of Crosses this weekend.

Georgia Tech +8 @ Virginia Tech, 12:00 PM EST (Chad)
The triple option is an absolute pain in the ass to prepare for. If you don't have a bye week to prepare for this attack, you just might be in for a long day. Georgia Tech is infamously helmed by triple option virtuoso Paul Johnson, and his Yellow Jackets have lost 6 of the last 7 they've played against Virginia Tech. However, none of those loses have been by double digits, and four of those loses have been by 7 points or less. Some of the shine has come off of Frank Beamer's squad after an upset loss to East Carolina last week, and I think it's become clear the Hokies aren't exactly world beaters. Virginia Tech has been great against the run thus far, but this isn't just any running team. This is 60 runs right at you,with your defensive lineman and linebackers getting cut, trapped and countered for 4 quarters. It's no fun to defend, especially without a comfortable lead.  Virginia Tech isn't good enough to get out to a big lead, and will have to defend this cloud of dust all game. Virginia Tech probably wins, but it's not by more than a score. 

Extra Point: Florida vs. Alabama UNDER 51.5, 3:30 PM EST (Garrett)

If these guys could win games by scoring zero points, they would. 

As I stated earlier, this game should be UGLY. The Dark Lords of Defense shall square off, with the Apprentice looking to get a signature win over the Master. There will be hard hits, plenty of Verne Lundquist "OH MY GOODNESS" calls, and a pretty good chance of seeing Angry Muschamp on camera multiple times. Just be thankful you aren't playing in this game, as the players on Sunday will probably look something like Chad did last Sunday. This one should stay well under the total, with the first team to 20 winning the contest.

Washington State vs. Oregon OVER 75, 10:30 PM EST (Chad)

ALL the points. Okay, some real analysis, I guess. 75 is a ton of points, but these two teams are no stranger to pushing games over this point total. Over the past two seasons, Washington State has been involved in 7 games that went over 75 points (including last year's tilt with Oregon). Oregon has only played in two, partly because they speak a language foreign to Mike Leach--Defense. Oregon is gonna score plenty in this one, and while Wazzu may struggle, neither one of these teams are gonna pull of the gas.

Garrett's Record: 10-4-1 (71.4%)

Chad's Record: 5-9-1 (35.7%)

Overall Record: 15-13-1 (53.6%)

The Four To Score: Week 2

Let The Good Times Roll 

"Nick, it was only one shot of Fireball with Holgo"

Despite the minefield of mega-lines that is Week 1 of every college football season, we were able to start the season off on the right track. It wasn't always easy (see: Bo Wallace's dumpster-fire first half), and some luck was needed at times (looking at you, Buckeyes), but there were some absolutely correct calls made last week as well. Thanks to incredible performances from Kenny Trill and Aaron Jones, Texas A&M and UTEP said "to hell with the spread" and pulled off road upsets despite being dogs of more than a touchdown. I've got a very narrow lead over Chad coming out of the gate, but it was a damn good week for The Four To Score overall, as our picks went a combined 7-2-1. There are a few more marquee matchups on the board this week, but as shown by UTEP, winners can be found in even the least appealing games. Lets jump into this week's picks, as we do our best to avoid a Wisconsin-esque collapse in Week 2.

First Down: Oregon -12 vs. Michigan State, 6:30 PM EST (Garrett)

Michigan State has all the conference championship hype behind it now that Braxton Miller has been lost for the season. It has also has a shiny Rose Bowl trophy from last season that most people are probably putting a lot of weight into when looking into this week's game. But Sparty doesn't know what it will be walking into Saturday when they set foot in Autzen Stadium, and they sure as hell don't have the country's best player on their team. Oregon has been fantastic as a home favorite over the past ten years, going 36-22-2 ATS. Marcus Mariota has also been a horse to back during his time on campus, as the best player in the country has gone 16-10 against the number. Michigan State's defense was fairly salty on the whole last season, but they only return five starters this year, and last year's unit gave up some pretty big numbers to two of the best offensive teams it faced (374 yds against Ohio State, 392 at Nebraska). Mariota and the Ducks' offensive pace will prove to be too much, as the Ducks make a declaration of intent in a marquee game that features the lowest Oregon home betting line since 2010.

Stanford -2.5 vs. USC, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)

Oh boy, this one is going to be fun. The margin of victory for whoever wins won't exceed single digits. There is not a single team in college football I have been more impressed with than Stanford over the past 5 years. I loved what Harbaugh did, and David Shaw has only improved on that mold. In 2010 and 2011 Chip Kelly's dystopian duck cyborg blood machine dismantled Stanford by at least 20 points, but the Cardinal have solved their Oregon problem over the past two years (two wins: 17-14, 26-20). I know USC isn't Oregon, but I mention them to show Stanford can hold an explosive offense down, as far as scheme goes (the likes of 19 year letterman Shayne Skov will be sorely missed, obviously). USC is a dangerous team, and they appear to be the cream of the Pac 12 West out of the gate. This one could go either way. but  the Revenge of the Nerds continues into 2014. Give me the proven, consistent Cardinal by a field goal.

Second Down: Colorado State +10 at Boise State, 10:15 PM EST (Garrett)

Don't look now, but Jim McElwain is building himself a nice little program up at Colorado State. The Rams started the season off on the right track last week, beating in-state rival Colorado by 14 in Denver. Last year's game between these two teams was a strange one, as the Rams outgained the Broncos by 189 yards, held the ball twice as long, but lost by 12 due to going 4-7 on 4th Down. Colorado State's offense showed no signs of slowing down last week, as they produced two 100 yard rushers in the victory over the Buffs. If the Rams can be a bit better in the turnover game, their rushing attack should be able to control the clock, and the offense will give them a chance to win outright.

No, we don't miss you.

Texas +1 vs. BYU, 7:00 PM EST (Chad)
This a complete gut feeling, and I want desperately to be right. As much trauma as the Horns offense has experienced over the past six weeks, it's hard to disagree with this line. But, I saw a different Texas team last week. A team that was actually playing football, and isn't going to lose if they can help it. The key cogs to a Texas victory haven't been suspended (yet). The defense will carry the day, and the two-headed monster of Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray will do just enough to keep Texas' head above water offensively. The culture change in Austin is real, thank god, and Texas escapes to Arlington undefeated.

Third Down: Washington State -3 vs. Nevada, 10:30 PM EST FRIDAY (Garrett)

And he covers on Friday. 

If previous trends continue, Washington State losing a close one at home last week to Rutgers should be a blessing for bettors this week. Mike Leach has been pretty damn good at getting his teams to bounce back after a loss, as Wazzu has gone 9-6 ATS in games coming off a SU loss. Furthermore, the Cougars have been good against the number away from home, going a perfect 6-0 last season, and 8-4 over the last two seasons. They may be bottom-feeders in the PAC 12, but Leach's team should have a distinct talent advantage this week when they head to Reno to take on a Nevada team that gave up an average of 500 yards per game last season. That type of defense is exactly what pass-happy Mike Leach and Connor Halliday want to see in a game they must win if they want any chance of going to a second consecutive bowl game.

I wish we missed you. I really do. But, we don't. We miss your pants, though.

Tennessee -17 vs. Arkansas State 12:00 PM EST (Chad)
Consider me a full believer in what Butch Jones is doing in Knoxville. He has won everywhere he's been, and the Volunteers were better than people realize last year. Tennessee looked better than expected against a competent Utah State team last week, and the Vols are still being underestimated. This team has talent, and they will put a scare into an over-hyped OU team next week. Plus, nothing Arkansas State is bringing to the table excites me. Literally, nothing. I have no intention of watching this one, but will be refreshing the box score frequently. Tennessee cruises into their showdown with the Sooners next week by at least 3 scores...

Fourth Down: Oklahoma -24.5 at Tulsa, 12 PM EST (Garrett)

Call me crazy for laying this kind of chalk on the road, but history is on my side in this one. Since the turn of the century, these two teams have met on the gridiron seven times, and in every game but one, Big Brother has hammered the hell out of Little Brother. Outside of the 2005 matchup when Bob Stoops had Paul Thompson and Rhett Bomar (CHA-CHING!) under center, Oklahoma has won every other game in this series by 31 or more! Bolstering my belief that another blowout is in the cards are the numbers Tulsa's opponents put up last year. Against the better teams they played in conference last season, Tulsa was annihilated. Against both UNT and Marshall, they were outgained by at least 275 yards, and were throttled by 34 points on the road at East Carolina. Hell, they just gave up 516 yards to TULANE last week, including 254 on the ground. Oklahoma's offense will run riot, and the Sooners' defense should do plenty to hold Tulsa in check. Bobby's boys win by at least thirty.

Pittsburgh -4 at Boston College, 7:00 PM EST (Chad)
I really hate to throw a boring, middle of the road ACC game at you guys here, but what else are you going to watch on Friday night? Boston College has essentially zero returning skill players on offense. Andre Williams has taken his talents and 2,200 rushing yards to the NFL, and his incredible season was all that kept the Eagles relevant for much of 2013. Pitt, however, has the look of a team who is finally taking on their head coach's identity. Paul Chryst was the Offensive Coordinator at Wisconsin during the prime of the Bielema years, when the Badgers just absolutely pounded the rock. Chryst returns two 800 yard backs from last year (James Conner and Isaac Bennett) and four starters on the offensive line. Look for Pitt to try and bulldoze their way to a seven point win.

P.S:  Boston College's addition of Florida transfer Tyler Murphy at QB is a total wild card here and could ruin everything. He looked good against a helpless UMass team in week one. This is my fourth pick for a reason, so proceed with caution. 

Extra Point: Texas vs. BYU UNDER 46.5, 7:30 PM EST (Garrett)

I have absolutely no confidence in predicting who will win this game, but all signs point to it being a game dominated by the defenses. With both David Ash and Dom Espinosa out, QB Tyrone Swoopes and C Jake Raulerson will both be making their first ever collegiate starts, which will probably lead to some trying times for the Horns on offense. Flip the script, and you can bank on Taysom Hill not getting anywhere close to the numbers he put up in last year's game in Provo, as the Texas front seven looked pretty damn nasty last week. Both teams will be desperate for points in this one, and barring D/ST TDs, this one has the making of a "first team to twenty wins" game...if either team even gets to twenty.

UCLA -23.5 vs. Memphis, 10:00 PM EST (Chad)
I'm not big on UCLA this year, but this is absolutely ridiculous. Yes, UCLA struggled against Virginia. Virginia had the horses to stay with UCLA on critical downs, and it showed some chinks in the Bruins armor. UCLA will be in some dog fights in league play, but not against Memphis. This is a classic case of people overreacting to a bad showing. UVA has some athletes on defense (seriously, is there a bigger "sleeping giant" than UVA?), and the scare they gave UCLA should provide the Bruins with some added motivation to prove they are the team the country thinks they are. UCLA runs away with this one early. 

Garrett's Record: 4-1

Chad's Record: 3-1-1

Overall Four To Score Record: 7-2-1

The Four To Score: Week 8

"Just Win, Baby!"

Let begin this week's column by saying I will gladly take a loss if it means my Horns smoked the Sooners in the Cotton Bowl.  That age-old adage of "never bet against your team" proved true last week, as Mack Brown and the boys came out and kicked in Oklahoma's teeth relentlessly for sixty minutes.  They proved me and the rest of the country wrong, and it was oh so glorious.  Despite that loss though, we had our third consecutive winning week here at The Four To Score, going 3-2 over the weekend, with the only other loss occurring in Washington.  Over the past three weeks, we've definitely been on fire like Daje Johnson's feet, going 9-4-2 in all of our plays, for a 60% winning clip.  The train is running full speed now, and we have no intention of it stopping.  

First Down: Clemson +3 vs. Florida State; 8 PM EST

Though Clemson has underwhelmed in previous weeks, lets not forget about that big win in Week 1 against Georgia.  This game against Florida State is very similar to that one, as the Tigers enter as primetime home underdogs once again.  Famous Jameis Winston has been fantastic for the seminoles this season, but this will be Florida State's first real test of the season.  Death Valley will be rocking just like it did when Georgia came town, and I'm expecting Jameis to get a bit rattled during his first experience in this kind of atmosphere.  Give me the more experienced Tajh Boyd and the points, as the home team in this game has won the last six outright. 

Second Down:  Washington State +40 vs. Oregon; 10 PM EST

This play is one based solely on principle.  Every line that has come out on the Ducks has been hammered by the public, and because the Ducks have kept covering, the books have pushed the lines higher and higher.  There is no way the Cougars should be getting 40 points here, as they are a fairly respectable 4-3 team, despite a big loss to Oregon State last week.  Remember they beat USC at the Coliseum, and gave Auburn all the could handle down in Alabama.  In their last three meetings, the Cougars haven't lost to the Ducks by more than 25 points.  Oregon should get an easy win, but I expect Washington State to keep it within the forty point margin, as teams coming off a big loss generally play much better the following week.

Third Down: Stanford -4.5 vs. UCLA; 3:30 PM EST

I love what Jim Mora and Brett Hundley have done down in UCLA this season.  However, this is not the spot to make a play on them.  Stanford is coming off an upset loss to Utah last week, meaning they are playing for their season this week against the Bruins.  If they lose to UCLA, their chance at a PAC-12 North division title is gone, as there is no way in hell that Oregon will lose two games this season.  Stanford has won the last five in this series, including two last season in back-to-back weeks.  David Shaw will have his team motivated, as Stanford comes out fired up to get the win and keep their season alive. 

Fourth Down: Notre Dame -2.5 vs. USC; 7:30 PM EST

The Trojans got us the cover at home against Arizona last week, but they are facing a much tougher test when they head to South Bend this weekend.  Though USC has had extra time to prepare for this week's contest, they are 2-7 in their last nine games ATS, and are 0-9 in their last nine road games ATS.  Notre Dame is coming off a bye week after beating a solid Arizona State team on a neutral field. Remember, that Sun Devil team is the one that beat the snot out of USC, and ended Lane Kiffin's career.  With how big Notre Dame is up front on defense, the Trojans' running game should struggle, and will it all be on quarterback Cody Kessler's shoulders.  USC may be better than they were when Kiffin is in charge, but they won't be good enough to get the win in South Bend.  The Irish win a close one at home, ending the streak of road teams dominating this series over the past four years. 

Extra Point: LSU vs. Ole Miss OVER 60 

In the last three contests between these two schools, LSU has put over 40 points on the board in each game.  This year's unit might be the better than all of the previous three, as the Tigers have put points up on everyone except the staunch Florida defense.  Ole Miss has given up 30 points three times this season, including 41 to Johnny Football last weekend.  The fact is that the Rebels can't stop an above average offense, let alone one as good as Texas A&M's.  LSU will probably get the cover, but the better play here is the OVER, as the Tigers might get into the 50's here, with Ole Miss putting some points on the board as well. 

The Four To Score: 11-13-2

Extra Points: 3-2-1

Overall: 14-16-3