The Four To Score: Week Six

Win or Lose, This is a Drool-Worthy Saturday

Oh yeah, Charlie….It's THAT good. 

Gals live for Pumpkin Spiced Lattes this time of year. Men, on the other hand, dream about Saturdays like the one we have this week. There are many superlatives you could probably use to discuss this week's card, but it probably wouldn't do it justice. It's so good that the majority of college football fans will probably be in a zombie-like state for extended periods of time on Saturday, becoming cognizant only to change the channel, grab another brewsky, or ingest more artery-clogging gameday treats. Hopefully our picks will do this week justice, as we look to improve on an average Week 5. Chad West, CPA finally got the better of me by the smallest of margins (3-2 to 2-2-1). Is this merely a case of a blind raccoon eventually finding a garbage can, or is the start of a Bill Snyder-esque wizardly comeback tour? Keep reading to find out, as we provide you with our far-less-than-scintillating thoughts on this week's incredible tilts.

First Down: Mississippi State -2 vs. Texas A&M, 12:00 PM EST (Garrett)

The Fightin' Aggies were lucky to escape JerryWorld with a win last week, needing a fourth quarter comeback to force overtime. Despite the win, Sumlin's crew still gave up just under 500 yards of offense to a very simple offense, 285 of which were on the ground. Obviously, the Aggies defense fooled me, and still leaves much to be desired. Now that same defense will have to take on a very dynamic offense featuring the best dual-threat QB in the SEC, Dak Prescott. Think back to two weeks ago, when the DAK ATTACK ran wild in Baton Rouge, racking up all kinds of points and yards. Yes, that offense had its way with the Tigers in Death Valley, at night. That game was merely a sign of things to come, as Dan Mullen's boys will get their second signature win in a three week span this Saturday. Back the DAK ATTACK in Starkville. 

Texas A&M +2 @ Mississippi State, 12:00 PM EST (Chad)

We got some insight this week on where all that Aggyland swag has been coming from the past few years. Kevin Sumlin parties with Rick Ross, and makes others feel the need to get turnt? #YESSIR. After last weeks near miracle comeback against a good Arkansas team, I'm not counting out the Aggies for the rest of the year. Sure, a road test against a much improved and en vogue Mississippi State team is cause for concern. Dak Prescott can flat out play, as evidenced my Garrett's newly acquired man crush. But, let's not go overboard here. This team beat a wobbly LSU team my Louisiana buddies predicted to win 8 games. Given A&M's wins against Sakerlina and Arky, they have the better resume, and wayyyy more swag. This one is probably close, but Aggy wins outright.

Second Down: Stanford -2.5 vs. Notre Dame, 3:30 PM EST (Garrett)

I must admit, I have loved what I have seen from the Everett Golson Comeback Tour. That being said, Notre Dame hasn't played anyone noteworthy so far, defeating a bunch of sub-optimal opponents including the dumpster-fire started by Brady Hoke. Perhaps the most damning evidence of Notre Dame's inflated value was it's unimpressive 16 point win over Purdue, one of the absolute worst teams in the land. Contrast that with a battle-tested Stanford Cardinal, who last week went into a very tough environment in Washington and left with a conference W. The Huskies are a far better unit than anything that Notre Dame has gone up against, and if not for some red zone hijinks against USC, this Stanford team would be undefeated with arguably the two best wins in the country to date. This game should be the low-scoring slugfest Vegas expects, but the more proven commodity will leave South Bend with a win on Saturday. 

Notre Dame +2.5 @ Stanford, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)

God, I hate this. I'm no fan of the Golden Domers, and I have been a huge fan of what Stanford has done the past six years or so. But, this is a different Stanford team. They struggle to run the ball at times, mostly because they don't have a front line back a la Toby Gerhart, Stephon Taylor, or Tyler Gaffney. Notre Dame, on the other hand is really catching on with Brian Kelly's system, as evidenced by Everett Golson teaching a masters class in dink and dunk last week. This is 2014, and offense is king. The defenses duel to a relative draw, but Notre Dame executes better on offense. Golson is the difference in a close game, in which the public will see Brian Kelly turn purple 3 times.

Third Down: USC -12 vs. Arizona State, 7:30 PM EST (Garrett)

Remember earlier this season, when we said the Sun Devils were the most likely team in the country to take a big step back from last season? Last week validated that thought process, as the ASU defense showed its true colors to the country, giving up 580 yards of offense in an absolute shellacking. Keep in mind that was against a UCLA team that had been very underwhelming in its early season performances. On the other side of the ball, USC bounced back in pretty impressive fashion last Saturday, getting a 25 point win and a cover against Oregon State at home. Don't forget that this is a massive revenge spot of the Trojans, as USC was blown out last year in Tempe in a performance so bad that it saw Lane Kiffin lose his job upon hitting the runway in Los Angeles. For those worried about how USC's rush defense (Trojans were absolutely mauled on the ground in Boston) will fare against the 17th ranked rushing attack in the country, keep in mind that ASU's rushing statistics are a bit inflated after games against Weber State and New Mexico (they came back down to earth against UCLA, rushing for only 138 yards). Finally, the home team has covered the spread in four of the last five in this series, and the home team has also won outright seven of the last ten times. Sark's squad gets their vengeance in Los Angeles, as the Trojans win by more than two touchdowns. 

Those thighs, doe.

Oklahoma -5 @ TCU, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)

This is a trap game, right? TCU has a new shiny offense, complete with track stars on the outside (Colby Listenbee) and former five star recruits (running back Aaron Green), Pair that up with Gary Patterson's infamously stingy defense, and the Sooners aren't gonna escape Fort Worth without suffering a loss. Right? Right? Not happening. Boykin doesn't throw a pretty enough deep ball to get it to the TCU speedsters and take advantage of the relative weakness in the OU secondary. Boykin is mobile enough to cause some teams fits, but Erik Striker and his gang of SEC-sized brutes will make things tough for the Frogs up front.  OU is fairly talented and balanced on offense, especially with the emergence of Freshman Phenom Samaje Perine. That will be enough to tame the Frogs. TCU is about to play their first game of the season, and they're gonna lose it handily. OU in a rout. 

Fourth Down: Nebraska +7 at Michigan State, 8 PM EST (Garrett)

But if you don't cover….

I can't believe it's happening, but I'm putting my faith in Bo Pelini. The man who cursed his own fans is 7-11 ATS as a road dog in his tenure at Nebraska, but I think Nebraska can do just enough to keep this one tight in East Lansing. In their one game against formidable opposition, Michigan State's stout defense yielded 4.3 yards per carry to the Oregon Ducks offense. If there is one thing you can bank on the Cornhuskers doing, it's running the ball. Nebraska has the third best rushing attack in the country, led by the country's #1 RB Ameer Abdullah. Despite losing this contest last year, Nebraska was able to move the ball with some success against the Spartans, putting up 392 yards against arguably the best defense in the country last season. In fact, if it wasn't for the five turnovers, Nebraska probably would've gotten the win. As hard as it may be….BELIEVE IN PELINI! 

East Carolina -41 vs. SMU, 12:00 PM EST (Chad)

45-0
43-6
58-6
56-0

Extra Point: Oklahoma vs. TCU UNDER 57.5, 3:30 PM EST (Garrett)

Both games between these teams the past two years have come nowhere near going over the total, and I think that trend will continue in Fort Worth on Saturday. Though OU has looked to be one of the best teams in the country, Gary Patterson is one of the best defensive minds in the game, and he finally has some depth this year. Oklahoma also has a phenomenal defense, and you have to think they'll have the edge against TCU QB Trevone Boykin. With both squads being run-first teams, this should probably be a tight affair dominated by the defenses. 

Alabama @ Ole Miss OVER 52.5, 3:30 PM EST  (Chad)

I see this game going an awful lot like the Alabama opener against West Virginia, when the Tide won a close game 33-23. Both these teams can score, and Lord Saban has been seeing a psychologist about his relationship with points ( I would to if I had Amari Cooper). Dr. Bo will score enough for both Ole Miss and Alabama to get this one over 50 total points, plus some change.

Garrett's Record: 14-8-3

Chad's Record: 10-14-1

Overall Record: 24-22-4

The Four To Score: Week Five

Conference Races Are About to Heat Up….HALLELUJAH! 

Rich Rod and Chad on Saturdays. 

Finally, we're getting into the meat and potatoes of the college football season. Forget the dainty amouse-bouches and appetizers, we're ready for steady massive helpings of conference showdowns every week from here on out. This couldn't come soon enough, especially after last week's mediocrity here at The Four To Score. Losing Florida +14 was a loss that felt like it should have been a win during the game, but after stepping back and thinking about the game on Sunday, Will Muschamp's boys had absolutely no business hanging around for so long. Shame on me for following my heart and trusting you, Coach Boom. Long gone are the days of you chest-bumping Brian Orakpo, instead replaced by defensive mishaps leading to lots of offensive yards for opponents. Similarly, Chad took the brunt of it thanks to the least likely of characters….Greg F'n Davis. Somehow, Pitt squandered a ten point halftime lead and lost to the Hawkeyes in a game that saw the Panthers win the box score by a margin of over 100 yards. Curse the Master of Bubble Screens for putting up 17 points in the second half and blowing the cover for Chad (2-3 last week), who just can't seem to get a bounce. Hopefully things start to look up for Chad, and I'll do my best to avoid a regression to the mean (2-2-1 last week) as we break down this week's appetizing card.

First Down: Texas Tech +14 at Oklahoma State, 7:30 PM EST Thursday (Garrett)

Call me crazy for it, but I'm backing Kliff's crew this week as they head to Stillwater. The Red Raiders defense has been an absolute mess to start the season, and the offense hasn't clicked as many have expected. Yet I think this could be the week where things start heading in the positive direction for Texas Tech. They had a bye week last week, and fired their defensive coordinator, which hopefully fixes some of their defensive ills like it did for Texas in 2013. That extra week to prepare for Mike Gundy's squad will not only help the defense get its act in order, but should have also provided Davis Webb more reps to get on the same page with his WRs. As in most games between these two teams, there should be points aplenty, but I think the Red Raiders will do just enough to keep this to a single-digit game in a "rally the troops"moment to start conference play.

Oklahoma State -14 vs. Texas Tech, 7:30 PM EST Thursday (Chad)
This one will probably bite me in the ass. This is wayyy to many points, and there's little chance Tech is actually as bad as they looked against Arkansas a few weeks ago. Nonetheless, I'm laying the points with the bright orange headed step children of Oklahoma State. The loss of J.W. Walsh doesn't sting as much as some seem to think. Inside the Cowboys program, their has been effusive praise for newly minted starting QB Daxx Garman since he got on campus, and his throw first-style is tailor made for what Gundy likes to do on offense. Garman's arm will let Gundy pound the rock when he needs to, and play action teams to death. Tonight, the Pokes won't stray to far from that model. Gundy is no idiot, and he's seen that Arky tape. Scheme can't fix how small the Red Raiders are up front. Childs, Roland and Tyreek Hill will set the pace for a competent OSU rushing attack, and Garman will deliver some daggers over the top on the DB's who come up to help on the run. Given the amount of points they're giving this one will be close, but Gundy and the step-children cover.

Second Down: Washington +8 vs. Stanford, 4:15 PM EST (Garrett)

Situationally, there are a lot of reasons to like Washington in this spot. First and foremost, this game reeks of a look-ahead spot for Stanford, as the Cardinal surely have been peeking at that date with #8 Notre Dame next weekend. Additionally, Husky Stadium is a very tough place to play, as Stanford learned two years ago when Washington pulled a 17-13 upset over the Cardinals. The Huskies will also be looking to avenge last year's heartbreaker in Palo Alto, a game that included a fantastic performance from the now departed Keith Price. On the stat sheet, you have to love seeing Washington +8 in Turnover Margin, and I think QB Cyler Miles can cause some problems for the stout Stanford defense with his feet. Ultimately we should see both teams pound the ball on the ground (Washington 4th in country with 51 rush attempts per game; Stanford averaging 34), leading to another very close contest (last two games decided by a combined 7 points) up in Seattle. Take Washington and the points in this one.

It's the simple things in life...

TCU -32 @ SMU, 12:00 PM EST (Chad)
Much to the disappointment of Eric Dickerson, the Ponies may very well be the worst team in college football. SMU's best performance of the season came in a 37 point loss to North Texas, who lost the following week to Louisiana Tech by 21 points. Ouch. Next up is a seemingly improved TCU team, where Gary Patterson is attempting to reconcile his defense-first ways with the need to score points in modern college football. TCU has gone to a spread-esque system helmed by Leach and Holgorsen proteges. The early returns are promising (despite the much maligned Treyvone Boykin still being the Horned Frogs signal caller) and TCU is certainly capable of hanging some points on SMU. TCU's defense looks dominant, and Boykin stays out of his own way enough to put 45 or so on the board. TCU big. 

Third Down: Texas A&M -9.5 vs. Arkansas, 3:30 PM EST (Garrett)

Last year's game in JerryWorld closed with Arkansas being a 13.5 point underdog. Looking at this line, I can't justify Arkansas being four points better in this contest. Yes, they got a big win against Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Tech offense isn't operating at a high level yet, and this same Arkansas defense got torched by Auburn for 595 yards in Week 1. The Aggies' offense is far more explosive than Auburn's in my book, and I think Texas A&M's defense has improved markedly from last season (held South Carolina under 100 yards in Week 1 when everyone thought Spurrier would run it down Sumlin's throat). Bielema's best bet to keep this one close is to shorten the game by running the ball and the clock, but that will go out the window should A&M jump out to an early lead. Kenny Trill, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Speedy Noil will just be too much for Woo Pig in Dallas, as the best offense in the land (averaging 613 ypg) will light up the scoreboard and win this one by double digits.

Yell Leaders…..The Absolute WORST. 

Texas -12 @ Kansas, 4:00 PM EST (Chad)
Seriously, Texas is not bad enough to have earned this line. BYU and UCLA are both decent. Kansas, on the other hand, is still really, really bad. The highest single game QBR for a Kansas QB in the Weis era? Just north of 60. Hoagie the Hut's still relatively extant reputation as an offensive guru is mind boggling. The aggregate of his teams offensive statistics at talent rich Notre Dame and Florida were exactly average. At Kansas?! Bahaha. "Decided strategic advantage," my ass. Texas has looked sort of meh on offense with Swoopes under center, but we saw marked improvement from BYU through the 4th quarter of the UCLA game. The Longhorn aren't great (as we are all too aware,) but they're not beat "Kansas by less than 10" bad (although Texas was THAT bad under uncle Mack in 2012). If Texas doesn't cover this...

Please no. Please.

Fourth Down: Baylor -21 vs. Iowa State, 8:20 PM EST (Garrett)

To describe last year's game as a "blowout" would be an understatement. The Bears had their way with the Cyclones, covering the spread as 33 point favorites in a 71-7 victory. Art Briles and Bryce Petty have shown no signs of slowing up this season, as they have dominated their inferior opponents by at least 42 points in all three games. Don't be fooled by that rivalry victory, as the Cyclones fit the description of "inferior opponent. Iowa State was absolutely dominated on the stat sheet by both Kansas State (-152 in yards) and North Dakota State (-253 in yards). Furthermore, there offense has only topped put up more than 17 points on one occasion (21 against Kansas State). This spread should be much closer to -28 given last year's spread, and how Iowa State has looked this season. Lay the points with Art Briles' offensive juggernaut.

Tennessee +17 @ Georgia, 11:00 PM EST (Chad)
Butch Jones' track record speaks for itself at this point. Successful stops at Central Michigan and Cincinnati preceded his current gig in Knoxville, where he's recruited well and his efforts are starting to show. A 24 point loss to OU two weeks ago wasn't as bad as it looked, and if not for the "Florida Menace" (Erik Striker) that game would've been much closer. Don't look now SEC East foes, but Tennessee is rising. They won't beat anyone they shouldn't this year, but they are sure gonna scare some folks. Georgia still has Todd Gurley, probably the country's best player. Tennessee will struggle to stop Gurley, as anyone would. Georgia should run the ball with relative ease all day. However, Georgia won't be concerned with style points during this conference game, and Mark Richt will be perfectly satisifed with an ugly win, which they get by less than 17.

Extra Point: Wisconsin OVER 42.5 points, 12:00 PM EST (Garrett)

Melvin Gordon will run for all the yards on Saturday.

Take a look at the box score from when South Florida played North Carolina State, and you'll see that the Wolfpack rushed for 315 yards against the Bulls. Now translate that to this matchup, where the Bulls will be taking on the best rushing attack in the country, who just happened to put up 644 yards on the ground against Bowling Green last weekend, and is averaging 7.8 yards per carry on the season. The Badgers should be able to gash South Florida (93rd in the country in points allowed) left and right, leading to a ton of points for the Badgers this weekend in Madison.

Wyoming vs. Michigan State UNDER 47.5 points, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)
I really hate to do this to you guys. Two college football teams who are paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for coaches should be able to muster 50 points between them. However, Dantonio and his minion Pat Narduzzi hate points and they don't really like to let people score them. Wyoming and Craig Bohl have been the absolute ugliest team in the country this year, win or lose. It will be a sad afternoon for points in East Lansing. 

Garrett's Record: 12-6-2 (66.7%)

Chad's Record: 7-12-1 (36.8%) 

Overall Record: 19-18-3 (51.3%) 

The Realm of Football: Part One

"They are we thought they were!"....Or maybe not? 

The first two weeks are in the books, and The Realm of Football still stands similar to how it did before the season started...for the most part. Certainly there were some scares, as Mike Gundy had Jameis Winston looking at Oklahoma State like they were a group of Publix security guards. Yet some things are going according to plan, as Marcus Mariota looks like the one true king that can unify The Realm, despite the arrival of the potential usurper known as "Kenny Trill." However, there has been one major turning point in the evolving story, told last weekend across varying states in the north. House Delany was pillaged, sacked, and burned to the ground, as Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan were all publicly beheaded in their primetime matchups. Fear not though, members of House Delany. Given recent showings, House Bowlsby is looking equally weak, especially after the Mormons had their way with the house's first-born child, refusing to even offer her a nice meal before completely ruining her. Indeed, The Realm of Football can be a savage place. Let's review some of the happenings from the first two weeks, and look ahead at what may happen in the months to come.  

1. Be hesitant with the "anointing oils", as they will often light your ass on fire and make you look like an idiot.  

So often in the early weeks, overreactions are made without taking a step back and remembering where we are in the course of a football season. Crowns are placed on the heads of some, and others call for houses to be burned to the ground in Evan Williams fueled rage. One week it's: "Oh my God, this offense is the greater than listening to angry Will Muschamp." The next: "The only thing worse than that defense is taking heroin. Actually, taking heroin would probably be better than having to watch that defense again." 

Two prime examples of this phenomena are the Charlie Strong Players Not Yet Kicked Off The Team and the Arizona Wildcats. Both fan bases were jacked up on Mountain Dew after the first weekend of football, as the Texas defense held North Texas to 94 yards of total offense, and The Fighting Rich Rods put up nine billion yards of offense against UNLV with a new quarterback and no Ka'Deem Carey. Fast forward to Week 2, and the Wildcats are fighting for their lives to escape San Antonio (yes, there is D-1 football in San Antonio) with a win, followed by the Burnt Orange Sea parting for Mormon Tebow to galavant into the end zone repeatedly. 

Mormon Tebow > Dylan Haynes 

The simple fact is that it is still way too early in the season to make calls on how most of these teams will look at season's end, and that there is still a ton of football to play. Plenty of time is left for teams to develop and grow into a better version than what they currently are, and plenty of time remains for the wheels to come off the bus. Lets wait a few more weeks before deciding whether to break out the twenty-one year scotch, or down grain alcohol without a mixer.

2. Regarding Marcus Mariota...forget what was said above. All Hail King Mariota. 

Through two weeks: 31-48 for 585 yds, 6 TDs; 15 rushes for 85 yards and 1 TD. 

Get yo hands off The King

670 yards of total offense, 7 TDs, no INTs....And a double-digit win over a Top 10 team. Ladies and gentlemen, the best player in the country is officially your Heisman frontrunner. 

3. Kenny Trill is just another cog in the Kevin Sumlin Offense WonderMachine

"You see, Kenny, I push this button, and voila, 500 yards of offense."

Don't get me wrong, I think Kenny Hill is a fantastic player. As good as he is though, that performance against South Carolina validated my belief that there isn't a better coach than Sumlin when it comes to developing quarterbacks. Just think about the players Sumlin has molded in recent years: Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, Johnny Manziel, and now Kenny Hill. Lots of insane numbers, and two of those big shiny trophies called "Heismans" comprise the notches on Sumlin's belt. Of course it's still early in the season, and the South Carolina defensive performance was the prequel to Texas' 3rd Quarter play, but you can't ignore the way Hill put up the numbers he did. He was throwing the ball all over the field with confidence, and marching down the field on damn near every drive. 

Hill will struggle at some point, as nearly all freshmen do. Yet based on Sumlin's past development of quarterbacks, the state of Texas will be his to rule over so long as he remains in College Station. If you're a high school quarterback or wide receiver in Texas with dreams of playing on Sunday, how could you not choose to play for the best offensive coach in the best conference in The Realm of Football?

4. Speaking of the best conference in the realm...   

The race for the SEC West will be the best in the country, and it won't even be close. Outside of maybe Arkansas, every team in this division is capable of beating anyone on any given night. While this division has generally been ruled by LSU and Alabama (with the occasional War Eagle sighting), the parity this year is incredible. 

Alabama is stacked with talent like always, but the quarterback debate still hasn't been settled, which could certainly lead to problems when the Tide begin conference play. 

Auburn and Texas A&M can score with anyone, but will either team be confident in getting a stop when it matters? 

LSU has a pair of incredible running backs, but the team looked shaky against Wisconsin. 

Ole Miss has a stout defense and great WRs, but Bo Wallace is the ultimate case of Jekyl & Hyde.

Mississipi State can't be slept on, as they hung tough in just about every big game last year, and now have Dak Prescott solidified and playing well at QB. 

Throw in the possibility of the Woo Pig RBs going off to cause an upset here or there, and you have a division race that could be filled with carnage every week. Leave your predictions about this division at the door, sit back, and enjoy the show.

5. B1G has already lost its head. House Bowlsby looks to be next on the chopping block.

The only reason the Big XII still has its head above water is because Oklahoma and Baylor have kept it afloat. There was hope for the conference after Week 1, given the inspiring performances of middle-tier Oklahoma State and West Virginia against national powerhouses. Then Week 2 happened, and House Bowlsby soiled itself. Beyond the drubbing in Austin, Kansas State needed a massive comeback late in the game to beat Iowa State, who had lost to North Dakota State the week before. (Memo to all Big XII teams: Do not play NDSU. Fool us once, shame on you. Fool us twice, shame on us, and we look like idiots.) 

Despite two W's, Tech has fallen flat on its....You get the picture. 

Last but not least, Texas Tech has proven itself to be the most undisciplined team in football. In defeating mega dominant powerhouses UTEP (they probably should have lost to the Miners) and Central Arkansas by a combined whopping 11 points, the Red Raiders racked up 25 penalties for 204 yards. Having fun and wearing "Beyonce is Bae" shirts is great and all, but this isn't a squad that can win against the better teams on its schedule while being that undisciplined. They certainly can't let it happen this week, considering their defense (108th nationally in run defense) is going up against arguably the best stable of running backs in the country. Don't be surprised if Woo Pig runs wild this weekend in Lubbock. 

6. Puddles the Duck is the greatest mascot to have ever graced the realm. 

If Marcus Mariota is the king, then Puddles is surely The Hand who pulls the strings in this realm. Should you have any doubts about it, this video will put you in your place. Unlike Kim Jong-Un, may Puddles actually live 1,000 years. (For further reading on this national treasure, read Spencer Hall's fantastic piece from earlier this week.)

That's all for this week in The Realm of Football. Be sure to follow the blog, and if you appreciate what we're producing here, share it with your friends!  

  

The Four To Score: Week 2

Let The Good Times Roll 

"Nick, it was only one shot of Fireball with Holgo"

Despite the minefield of mega-lines that is Week 1 of every college football season, we were able to start the season off on the right track. It wasn't always easy (see: Bo Wallace's dumpster-fire first half), and some luck was needed at times (looking at you, Buckeyes), but there were some absolutely correct calls made last week as well. Thanks to incredible performances from Kenny Trill and Aaron Jones, Texas A&M and UTEP said "to hell with the spread" and pulled off road upsets despite being dogs of more than a touchdown. I've got a very narrow lead over Chad coming out of the gate, but it was a damn good week for The Four To Score overall, as our picks went a combined 7-2-1. There are a few more marquee matchups on the board this week, but as shown by UTEP, winners can be found in even the least appealing games. Lets jump into this week's picks, as we do our best to avoid a Wisconsin-esque collapse in Week 2.

First Down: Oregon -12 vs. Michigan State, 6:30 PM EST (Garrett)

Michigan State has all the conference championship hype behind it now that Braxton Miller has been lost for the season. It has also has a shiny Rose Bowl trophy from last season that most people are probably putting a lot of weight into when looking into this week's game. But Sparty doesn't know what it will be walking into Saturday when they set foot in Autzen Stadium, and they sure as hell don't have the country's best player on their team. Oregon has been fantastic as a home favorite over the past ten years, going 36-22-2 ATS. Marcus Mariota has also been a horse to back during his time on campus, as the best player in the country has gone 16-10 against the number. Michigan State's defense was fairly salty on the whole last season, but they only return five starters this year, and last year's unit gave up some pretty big numbers to two of the best offensive teams it faced (374 yds against Ohio State, 392 at Nebraska). Mariota and the Ducks' offensive pace will prove to be too much, as the Ducks make a declaration of intent in a marquee game that features the lowest Oregon home betting line since 2010.

Stanford -2.5 vs. USC, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)

Oh boy, this one is going to be fun. The margin of victory for whoever wins won't exceed single digits. There is not a single team in college football I have been more impressed with than Stanford over the past 5 years. I loved what Harbaugh did, and David Shaw has only improved on that mold. In 2010 and 2011 Chip Kelly's dystopian duck cyborg blood machine dismantled Stanford by at least 20 points, but the Cardinal have solved their Oregon problem over the past two years (two wins: 17-14, 26-20). I know USC isn't Oregon, but I mention them to show Stanford can hold an explosive offense down, as far as scheme goes (the likes of 19 year letterman Shayne Skov will be sorely missed, obviously). USC is a dangerous team, and they appear to be the cream of the Pac 12 West out of the gate. This one could go either way. but  the Revenge of the Nerds continues into 2014. Give me the proven, consistent Cardinal by a field goal.

Second Down: Colorado State +10 at Boise State, 10:15 PM EST (Garrett)

Don't look now, but Jim McElwain is building himself a nice little program up at Colorado State. The Rams started the season off on the right track last week, beating in-state rival Colorado by 14 in Denver. Last year's game between these two teams was a strange one, as the Rams outgained the Broncos by 189 yards, held the ball twice as long, but lost by 12 due to going 4-7 on 4th Down. Colorado State's offense showed no signs of slowing down last week, as they produced two 100 yard rushers in the victory over the Buffs. If the Rams can be a bit better in the turnover game, their rushing attack should be able to control the clock, and the offense will give them a chance to win outright.

No, we don't miss you.

Texas +1 vs. BYU, 7:00 PM EST (Chad)
This a complete gut feeling, and I want desperately to be right. As much trauma as the Horns offense has experienced over the past six weeks, it's hard to disagree with this line. But, I saw a different Texas team last week. A team that was actually playing football, and isn't going to lose if they can help it. The key cogs to a Texas victory haven't been suspended (yet). The defense will carry the day, and the two-headed monster of Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray will do just enough to keep Texas' head above water offensively. The culture change in Austin is real, thank god, and Texas escapes to Arlington undefeated.

Third Down: Washington State -3 vs. Nevada, 10:30 PM EST FRIDAY (Garrett)

And he covers on Friday. 

If previous trends continue, Washington State losing a close one at home last week to Rutgers should be a blessing for bettors this week. Mike Leach has been pretty damn good at getting his teams to bounce back after a loss, as Wazzu has gone 9-6 ATS in games coming off a SU loss. Furthermore, the Cougars have been good against the number away from home, going a perfect 6-0 last season, and 8-4 over the last two seasons. They may be bottom-feeders in the PAC 12, but Leach's team should have a distinct talent advantage this week when they head to Reno to take on a Nevada team that gave up an average of 500 yards per game last season. That type of defense is exactly what pass-happy Mike Leach and Connor Halliday want to see in a game they must win if they want any chance of going to a second consecutive bowl game.

I wish we missed you. I really do. But, we don't. We miss your pants, though.

Tennessee -17 vs. Arkansas State 12:00 PM EST (Chad)
Consider me a full believer in what Butch Jones is doing in Knoxville. He has won everywhere he's been, and the Volunteers were better than people realize last year. Tennessee looked better than expected against a competent Utah State team last week, and the Vols are still being underestimated. This team has talent, and they will put a scare into an over-hyped OU team next week. Plus, nothing Arkansas State is bringing to the table excites me. Literally, nothing. I have no intention of watching this one, but will be refreshing the box score frequently. Tennessee cruises into their showdown with the Sooners next week by at least 3 scores...

Fourth Down: Oklahoma -24.5 at Tulsa, 12 PM EST (Garrett)

Call me crazy for laying this kind of chalk on the road, but history is on my side in this one. Since the turn of the century, these two teams have met on the gridiron seven times, and in every game but one, Big Brother has hammered the hell out of Little Brother. Outside of the 2005 matchup when Bob Stoops had Paul Thompson and Rhett Bomar (CHA-CHING!) under center, Oklahoma has won every other game in this series by 31 or more! Bolstering my belief that another blowout is in the cards are the numbers Tulsa's opponents put up last year. Against the better teams they played in conference last season, Tulsa was annihilated. Against both UNT and Marshall, they were outgained by at least 275 yards, and were throttled by 34 points on the road at East Carolina. Hell, they just gave up 516 yards to TULANE last week, including 254 on the ground. Oklahoma's offense will run riot, and the Sooners' defense should do plenty to hold Tulsa in check. Bobby's boys win by at least thirty.

Pittsburgh -4 at Boston College, 7:00 PM EST (Chad)
I really hate to throw a boring, middle of the road ACC game at you guys here, but what else are you going to watch on Friday night? Boston College has essentially zero returning skill players on offense. Andre Williams has taken his talents and 2,200 rushing yards to the NFL, and his incredible season was all that kept the Eagles relevant for much of 2013. Pitt, however, has the look of a team who is finally taking on their head coach's identity. Paul Chryst was the Offensive Coordinator at Wisconsin during the prime of the Bielema years, when the Badgers just absolutely pounded the rock. Chryst returns two 800 yard backs from last year (James Conner and Isaac Bennett) and four starters on the offensive line. Look for Pitt to try and bulldoze their way to a seven point win.

P.S:  Boston College's addition of Florida transfer Tyler Murphy at QB is a total wild card here and could ruin everything. He looked good against a helpless UMass team in week one. This is my fourth pick for a reason, so proceed with caution. 

Extra Point: Texas vs. BYU UNDER 46.5, 7:30 PM EST (Garrett)

I have absolutely no confidence in predicting who will win this game, but all signs point to it being a game dominated by the defenses. With both David Ash and Dom Espinosa out, QB Tyrone Swoopes and C Jake Raulerson will both be making their first ever collegiate starts, which will probably lead to some trying times for the Horns on offense. Flip the script, and you can bank on Taysom Hill not getting anywhere close to the numbers he put up in last year's game in Provo, as the Texas front seven looked pretty damn nasty last week. Both teams will be desperate for points in this one, and barring D/ST TDs, this one has the making of a "first team to twenty wins" game...if either team even gets to twenty.

UCLA -23.5 vs. Memphis, 10:00 PM EST (Chad)
I'm not big on UCLA this year, but this is absolutely ridiculous. Yes, UCLA struggled against Virginia. Virginia had the horses to stay with UCLA on critical downs, and it showed some chinks in the Bruins armor. UCLA will be in some dog fights in league play, but not against Memphis. This is a classic case of people overreacting to a bad showing. UVA has some athletes on defense (seriously, is there a bigger "sleeping giant" than UVA?), and the scare they gave UCLA should provide the Bruins with some added motivation to prove they are the team the country thinks they are. UCLA runs away with this one early. 

Garrett's Record: 4-1

Chad's Record: 3-1-1

Overall Four To Score Record: 7-2-1

The Four To Score: Week 13

Few Weeks Remain, But Opportunities Are Everywhere

There are only three full Saturdays of college football left before Bowl Season begins, as we get closer each week to determining which teams will be playing for it all in Pasadena.  Despite the dwindling time left in this season, you don't have to look hard to find big games and soft lines to take advantage of.  We went a respectable 3-2 last week, getting very unlucky in the Texas Tech game, but were also extremely fortunate that Georgia defenders had not been taught to bat a ball down on Hail Mary.  I'm not even going to speak of what happened in Austin last week, so lets just get into this week's contests.

First Down: LSU -4.5 vs. Texas A&M  3:30 PM EST

The Tigers won a close one in College Station at the beginning of last season, before everyone became obsessed with Johnny Football.  Manziel and his teammates will certainly be looking for revenge this week, with an eye on a potential BCS bid, but they are about to find out that Death Valley is not a hospitable place.  LSU is undefeated at home this season, and the Aggies are 0-2 ATS in away games.  Texas A&M defense still can't stop anyone, as evidenced by the 41 points the inept Mississippi State offense put up a few weeks ago.  Manziel may be able to put up a few points in Baton Rouge, but it won't be enough due to his team's defensive deficiencies.  Mettenberger and The Mad Hatter win this one by at least a touchdown in front of their raucous fans.  

Second Down: Oklahoma State +9 vs. Baylor 8:00 PM EST

If you saw how the Cowpoke fans welcomed the Gameday bus into town, you only have to imagine what Saturday night will be like in Stillwater when the fans in orange and black have had all day to consume alcoholic beverages.  Oklahoma State is getting more than a touchdown at home, against a team that only beat them by a touchdown in Waco last season.  The Cowboys showed what they were worth last week in Austin, when they essentially packed Mack Brown's office up for him.  Boone Pickens Stadium will be absolutely insane on Saturday night, and if the Bears manage to escape with a victory, it will be by a very slim margin.  Take the primetime home dog and the points, with a nibble at the big ML. 

Third Down: Arizona State -2 vs. UCLA 7:00 PM EST

Saturday night's game means everything for these two teams, as the winner will control their own destiny in the Pac 12 South.  With so much on the line, you have to look at how the teams have performed in big games.  Arizona State lost a close one to Notre Dame, but also won a big non-conference game against Wisconsin, and their huge victory over USC looks better with every week that passes.  On the other sideline, UCLA was lucky to win last week thanks to Keith Price's injury, and they have gotten beat soundly by the other two good teams they played (Stanford and Oregon).  This game will probably come down to the wire, but the Sun Devils win this one by at least a field goal and book their place in the Pac 12 championship game. 

Fourth Down: Washington State -1.5 vs. Utah  3:30 PM EST

Washington State's postseason dreams likely hinge on this game, as they can become bowl eligible with a win in Pullman this weekend.  The Cougars showed last weekend that they are determined to make it to a bowl by upsetting Arizona in Tucson, and Mike Leach's team looks incredibly focused after their two week break.  Since upsetting Stanford in Salt Lake City, Utah has been abysmal, losing four consecutive games.  Even worse for Utah fans is the fact that their team has lost every road conference game by double digits this season.  This game is a no-brainer...Swing your sword and back Mike Leach at home. 

Extra Point: Ohio State vs. Indiana UNDER 82 3:30 PM EST

This point total is is very close to last week's Baylor vs. Texas Tech game, which was also in the 80s.  People have been clamoring that Indiana can put up points with the best of them, after putting up 28 against Mizzou and Michigan State.  But the fact remains that this is the Big Ten, not the Big 12.  Indiana showed their true colors last week when they only managed a field goal against Wisconsin.  The Hoosiers have scored more than 17 points only once in their last five visits to the Horseshoe, and you know Urban Meyer will be looking for the blowout here.  Ohio State will get theirs, and the Buckeyes defense will keep the Hoosiers in check.  This one stays well under the total, with the Buckeyes winning big.  

The Four To Score: 20-25-1

Extra Points: 5-5-1

Overall: 25-30-1 

The Four To Score: Week 3

It's Finally Here... Darth Saban vs. Johnny Moneyball 

Everyone's "Game Of The Year" has finally arrived, and with a few other great matchups out there, The Four To Score should get back on track easily after a brutal Week 2.  There is no need to shy away from what happened last week.  When you're in the business of predicting football games, you're bound to get you're tail kicked every once in awhile, that is just the harsh reality of the business.  Thanks to the talents of Devin Gardner, and the complete disregard for ball security from West Virginia and Oklahoma, The Four To Score ended up an underwhelming 2-3 for the week, which at least isn't as bad as Jeff Driskel in the red-zone, or the Texas defense against a simple option play.  Fear not though, as this week's games have me more confident than Nick Saban in a revenge game.  

First Down: Alabama -7.5 vs. Texas A&M

This is the absolute lock of the week.  As mentioned above, Nick Saban has every reason to be confident heading into a revenge game, as he has never lost one.  For those of you with hazy memories, all you have to look back to is the 2011 BCS National Championship, where Saban and Alabama drew an actual "red line" at half field, and refused to let LSU cross it.  While Johnny Manziel is a gamer, he will bet outmatched this year due the departure of some of Texas A&M's key offensive players from last year (Luke Joekcel and Ryan Swope to name a few), and the fact that Saban had an entire offseason to prepare for the Texas A&M spread offense.  Additionally, Texas A&M's defense gave up over 500 yards to Rice, and 390 to Sam Houston State.  If that doesn't tell you what's going to happen when they go up against two-time BCS National Champion A.J. McCarron and Co., who are 7-2 over the past two years as a road favorite, you're blinder than USC and Texas fans who still support Lane Kiffin or Mack Brown.  The hype behind this game leads people to believe it's the "Game Of The Year", but really it will just be a comfortable, double-digit win for Alabama.  All hail Darth Saban.

Second Down: Colorado +8.5 vs. Fresno State

You can now pick your jaw up off the ground after seeing Colorado as my Second Down pick.  This Colorado team is vastly improved from last year's squad, and will be looking for redemption after getting stomped by Fresno State last year.  Speaking of the Bulldogs, they've been very underwhelming this year, as they nearly lost their home opener against Rutgers after being projected by some to be a BCS-buster this year.  After a string of terrible seasons, bettors are going to be very hesitant on Colorado solely because of how bad they were ATS under previous coaches.  But Coach Mike MacIntyre was phenomenal ATS in his last two years at San Jose State, going 19-6 against the number.    Take the points and the team out for revenge. 

Third Down: Arizona State -5.5 vs. Wisconsin

Coming into this game, neither team has allowed its opponents to get on the scoreboard.  That will all change late Saturday night once this Pac-12 vs. Big Ten matchup gets under way.  After seeing USC soil its pants last weekend (to my demise), there is now no doubt that the Sun Devils are the best team in the Pac 12 South.  Under Todd Graham last year, Arizona State went 8-5 ATS, but more importantly they went 4-1 as a home favorite, the scenario in play here.  Led by junior QB Taylor Kelly, this offense should be able to put up points on every opponent they play this year.  On the other side, you can always expect Wisconsin to be solid in the fundamentals of the game.  Yet this team is too one-dimensional for my liking in this big game, as it relies far too heavily on its ground game.  Lay the points here, as the Sun Devils should get their first win over a ranked opponent under Todd Graham.   

Fourth Down: Auburn -5.5 vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State makes its second appearance in The Four To Score, and once again, they are on the wrong side of the action.  The Bulldogs looked terrible in their opener against Oklahoma State, mustering up next to nothing on the offensive end.  Contrast that to Auburn, a team who is now on the upswing now that Guz Malzahn is holding the reins.  The former OC under Chizik has come back to Auburn after a single season at Arkansas State, where he went 9-4 ATS.  The Tigers are nowhere near the 2010 team in terms of skill, but they are improving under Malzahn (especially on the offensive side of the ball), and should be able to get the cover at home against a very bad Mississippi State team.  

Extra Point:  Nebraska vs. UCLA OVER 69

Last year's version of this game saw 66 points put up on the board, and I expect this year's edition to easily get into the 70s or 80s.  Brett Hundley and Taylor Martinez are both back to lead their high-powered offenses, but both teams struggle mightily on defense.  The Huskers gave up 34 points to Wyoming in their season opener, and the Bruins gave up loads of points last year when they went on the road.  This might be the most fun game to watch all week, as both teams could easily get into the 40s in what should be a very close game. 

The Four To Score: 4-4

Extra Points: 1-0

Overall: 5-4