The Four To Score: Week 13

Few Weeks Remain, But Opportunities Are Everywhere

There are only three full Saturdays of college football left before Bowl Season begins, as we get closer each week to determining which teams will be playing for it all in Pasadena.  Despite the dwindling time left in this season, you don't have to look hard to find big games and soft lines to take advantage of.  We went a respectable 3-2 last week, getting very unlucky in the Texas Tech game, but were also extremely fortunate that Georgia defenders had not been taught to bat a ball down on Hail Mary.  I'm not even going to speak of what happened in Austin last week, so lets just get into this week's contests.

First Down: LSU -4.5 vs. Texas A&M  3:30 PM EST

The Tigers won a close one in College Station at the beginning of last season, before everyone became obsessed with Johnny Football.  Manziel and his teammates will certainly be looking for revenge this week, with an eye on a potential BCS bid, but they are about to find out that Death Valley is not a hospitable place.  LSU is undefeated at home this season, and the Aggies are 0-2 ATS in away games.  Texas A&M defense still can't stop anyone, as evidenced by the 41 points the inept Mississippi State offense put up a few weeks ago.  Manziel may be able to put up a few points in Baton Rouge, but it won't be enough due to his team's defensive deficiencies.  Mettenberger and The Mad Hatter win this one by at least a touchdown in front of their raucous fans.  

Second Down: Oklahoma State +9 vs. Baylor 8:00 PM EST

If you saw how the Cowpoke fans welcomed the Gameday bus into town, you only have to imagine what Saturday night will be like in Stillwater when the fans in orange and black have had all day to consume alcoholic beverages.  Oklahoma State is getting more than a touchdown at home, against a team that only beat them by a touchdown in Waco last season.  The Cowboys showed what they were worth last week in Austin, when they essentially packed Mack Brown's office up for him.  Boone Pickens Stadium will be absolutely insane on Saturday night, and if the Bears manage to escape with a victory, it will be by a very slim margin.  Take the primetime home dog and the points, with a nibble at the big ML. 

Third Down: Arizona State -2 vs. UCLA 7:00 PM EST

Saturday night's game means everything for these two teams, as the winner will control their own destiny in the Pac 12 South.  With so much on the line, you have to look at how the teams have performed in big games.  Arizona State lost a close one to Notre Dame, but also won a big non-conference game against Wisconsin, and their huge victory over USC looks better with every week that passes.  On the other sideline, UCLA was lucky to win last week thanks to Keith Price's injury, and they have gotten beat soundly by the other two good teams they played (Stanford and Oregon).  This game will probably come down to the wire, but the Sun Devils win this one by at least a field goal and book their place in the Pac 12 championship game. 

Fourth Down: Washington State -1.5 vs. Utah  3:30 PM EST

Washington State's postseason dreams likely hinge on this game, as they can become bowl eligible with a win in Pullman this weekend.  The Cougars showed last weekend that they are determined to make it to a bowl by upsetting Arizona in Tucson, and Mike Leach's team looks incredibly focused after their two week break.  Since upsetting Stanford in Salt Lake City, Utah has been abysmal, losing four consecutive games.  Even worse for Utah fans is the fact that their team has lost every road conference game by double digits this season.  This game is a no-brainer...Swing your sword and back Mike Leach at home. 

Extra Point: Ohio State vs. Indiana UNDER 82 3:30 PM EST

This point total is is very close to last week's Baylor vs. Texas Tech game, which was also in the 80s.  People have been clamoring that Indiana can put up points with the best of them, after putting up 28 against Mizzou and Michigan State.  But the fact remains that this is the Big Ten, not the Big 12.  Indiana showed their true colors last week when they only managed a field goal against Wisconsin.  The Hoosiers have scored more than 17 points only once in their last five visits to the Horseshoe, and you know Urban Meyer will be looking for the blowout here.  Ohio State will get theirs, and the Buckeyes defense will keep the Hoosiers in check.  This one stays well under the total, with the Buckeyes winning big.  

The Four To Score: 20-25-1

Extra Points: 5-5-1

Overall: 25-30-1 

As Your Attorney, I Advise You...

Johnny Football Needs To Become Johnny Lay Low

After a hiatus from writing due to a number of things, I've figured the best opportunity to get back in the game is to offer my two cents on the Johnny Football drama that has been all over ESPN for the past few weeks.  Now I may not be a Heisman-winning quarterback staring at millions of dollars in future earnings, but I am a recent college graduate from a football-crazy school who drank a "frew brew" at fraternity parties back in the day, so I might just be semi-qualified to comment on this topic.  Based on my past experiences of dodging flying beer cans, here is my personal advice to the media's favorite person.

Dear Johnny, 

A few months ago, I ran into you at a bar on Sixth Street.  To be specific, it was Thanksgiving night, after TCU had beaten my hapless Longhorns.  While some might give you a bit of hell for being on Sixth two nights before your final regular season game against Mizzou, we both know Gary Pinkel's squad had less to offer than a bar after 2:15 AM, so no harm done there.  Hell, even last year's Longhorns could have beaten that team, which is saying something.  Honestly, you seemed like a pretty cool dude, which is why I'm offering this bit of advice to you.  

When I was an undergrad at the University of Texas, the Holy Triumvirate of Quarterbacks were dominating college football.  You might have even met a few of them in your time: Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow.  Combined, they were darlings of the media.  They could do no wrong, and some would even argue that they were God's gifts to mankind.  The fact of the matter is this, Johnny:  these guys didn't give the media anything bad to talk about.  You never heard about these guys being drunker than Cooter Brown, or oversleeping for an event because they were shacked up at a slam's place.  Today's media loves drama, and if you give them an inch, they will take a mile.  While we both might like to have lived in an era of the past, when a person's indiscretions could be hidden from snooping media eyes, there is no chance of that happening.  You can only play the hand you are dealt; as your attorney (if you don't understand that nod, I'm sorry) I advise you to do the following:

1. Lay low for the next few months.  If you want to get your booze on, have a few friends over and crack some brews at your place.  Just know who will be attending, so your shenanigans stay on the DL.  As much as you want to be a normal rowdy college student, you can't with today's media.  Normal students can get blackout at a bar on a Wednesday, but they aren't potential first-round NFL Draft picks who the media cares about.  You control your destiny over what the media can say about you.  Lay low, and there is nothing they can say. 
2. Stay away from Austin this season.  Some bitter Horns in the 512 will jump at any chance to take a photo of you that will make you look bad in front of a national audience.  You can't really blame them either, as the current Horns on campus don't know what a good football season feels like, and seeing your squad rise in the rankings unquestionably makes their blood boil.  Yes, Austin is the best city in the state, and by far the most fun.  Yes, it looks like Las Vegas or New Orleans when you have to live in College Station.  For the sake of your wallet though, stay away until the season is over.
3. Get the hell out of College Station after this season.  Yes, if you return for your junior season, your God-like status among those maroon sheep will grow even more.  But for the sake of your future, you need to get the hell out of Dodge.  Nothing good can come from you staying another year in college. Media scrutiny over every move you make will only increase, your draft stock can't go any higher, and the threat of injury will always be present.  You know what happened to Leinart and Barkley.  You're a first round talent, but are scaring NFL owners and GM's away due to your off-the-field antics. After Aaron Hernandez went full-idiot this summer, the NFL higher-ups will be looking for any and every reason to not draft a player who they see as risky due to off-the-field issues.  Take the money and run while you can, before the media or the NFL gets any more dirt on you.   

With that out of the way, I wish you nothing but the best this season, Mr. Football.

Your Attorney,

Dr. Gonzo

Hope you enjoyed the piece, and I'll do my best to bring you more of my thoughts and insights on a regular basis, as we are getting closer to football season. 

         

  

100 Days Away From The First Saturday Of College Football

The 10 Things I'm Looking Forward To

1. Can Jadeveon Clowney become the first defensive player to win the Heisman since Charles Woodson?  The guy is an athletic freak.  Anyone who has watched a hint of college football or ESPN  knows this guy will be the first pick in next year's draft, and he probably would have been taken first this year if he had been draft eligible.  He finished last season with 13 sacks, setting the single season record at South Carolina in a campaign that saw him receive the AT&T All America Player of The Year award.  Offenses are going to do their best to limit Clowney via scheme and double teams, but odds are that he will still have a monster season.  The only question is whether he can unseat the guy that comes in at #2 on this last.      
2. What does Johnny Football do for an encore after becoming the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy?
   
   Yes, the kid is cocky.  Yes, the kid posts some stuff on the internet that he should probably just keep to himself.  But facts are facts, and Manziel is a winner.  Johnny Football is a flat-out gamer, and as much as it pains me to say it, the Aggies will probably have another good season down in College Station.  That being said, the odds are against him becoming only the second player to win two Heisman trophies.  Remember, not even Tim Tebow could accomplish that with the ESPN hype machine behind him.  Manziel lost a key member of his offensive line to the draft in Luke Joeckel, and the A&M defense will have some problems in getting off the field this season.  He's also going to face stiff competition from Jadeveon Clowney, De'Anthony Thomas, and other great players around the country.  I just can't see a repeat happening this year, but if anyone can do it after Tebow missed out, it's Johnny Football.   
3. Alabama at Texas A&M, September 14, 2013 at 2:30 PM on CBS.
   
   Prepare yourselves, Aggies.  Nick Saban is coming for you.  You can bet every penny in your bank account that Nick Saban has this date circled in blood on his calendar.  The best ball coach in the land will be out for revenge on September 14th, and the people in College Station have every right to be terrified of what might happen on that afternoon in mid-September.  The last time Nick Saban coached a revenge game, LSU couldn't cross the fifty yard line when they played for the 2012 BCS National Championship.  Now he's got an experienced quarterback with two national titles under his belt going up against a very suspect defense.  This has "recipe for disaster" written all over it for the Aggies.  Alabama will probably open up as a 3.5 or 4 point favorite in this one, and I'd highly recommend you lay the points.  Sorry Aggies, but the Death Star is pointed right at you, and Luke Skywalker is nowhere in sight. 
4. What will Oregon look like without Chip Kelly at the helm?
   
   Chip did his best Pete Carroll impression and got the heck out of Eugene when the time was right, taking his craft to the NFL.  It's hard to see the Ducks regressing though because of the pieces still there.  They return eight starters on offense, including quarterback Marcus Mariota and running back De'Anthony Thomas, who just might be the fastest man in college football.  The Ducks will still keep the fast-paced offense in place, and should still produce a solid unit on a defense.  I don't know if playing for the national title is in the cards, but I could definitely see the Ducks taking a conference championship back to Eugene this season.
5. How will the LSU Defense perform after having eight players selected in the 2013 NFL Draft?
   
   The fact that LSU had eight defensive players drafted is a testament to the talent that the coaches in Baton Rouge develop and produce on a yearly basis.  Maybe the Cajun cooking has something to do with it, but whatever it is, The Mad Hatter and S&C Coach Tommy Moffitt churn out defensive talent no matter the circumstances.  Yet you have to think that losing so many players to the draft in one year is going to have an impact.  They'll still be a pretty good unit, but a there will be a lot of young players out there that are bound to make some errors and get exposed from time to time.  Bonus Nugget: LSU will once again have the best name in college football, this time with Ego Ferguson.
6. Can Mack Brown finally get back over the hump and beat Oklahoma?
   
   Mack is feeling the pressure, and it will only keep increasing until the Oklahoma game in October.  The recipe for success is incredibly simple.  Since 2000, Texas has gone to a BCS game every time it has beaten Oklahoma except for Colt McCoy's freshman season in 2006.  You beat Oklahoma, and everything else takes care of itself.  With Landry Jones gone, it's now or never for Mack Brown and company.  The Longhorns return tons of talent on both sides of the ball, including the most experienced quarterback in the Big XII in David Ash.  Win the Red River Rivalry game, and both the conference championship and BCS games are well within reach.  If Mack fails to get the best of Bob Stoops, he'll be cleaning out his office at the end of the season.
7. Will Lane Kiffin save his job at USC?  
   
   Probably the only coach feeling the same amount of pressure, if not more, is Lane Kiffin at USC.  The Trojans were nowhere near meeting expectations in Los Angeles last season, and the pressure is on for Kiffin to right the ship.  A favorable schedule should give Kiffin more time though, as the USC's only two tough road games are at Notre Dame and across town at UCLA.  The Trojans get Stanford at home, and don't have to face the Oregon Ducks in the regular season.  Although Matt Barkley is gone, Marqise Lee is still on campus to take some of the pressure off Max Wittek's shoulders or whoever else Kiffin puts under center.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Kiffin let go after this year, but I think he'll still be in Los Angeles for the 2014 season.  Bonus Nugget: Lane Kiffin may not be doing well on the field, but boy did he do well off the field.  Well done, Lane.
   
8. How much will Kansas State regress without Optimus Klein?  
   
   Colin Klein has left Manhattan, so you can expect the Wildcats to be down a bit this year.  Don't expect a disaster though, as Bill Snyder is one of the best in the business at getting the most out of his talent.  What that guy has done at Kansas State is remarkable.  I shudder to think what he could do if he had the talent that Texas and Oklahoma get every year.  It might be a an eight-win season for K-State this year, but don't be surprised if Snyder and the Wildcats pull off an upset at home against TCU or Oklahoma in November.  Lord knows they want give someone the treatment that Baylor gave them last season.  Side Note:  If you are on Twitter, you need to follow @kellyinvegas.  Beautiful gal that knows her stuff about college football and sports betting.  Be careful what you tweet though, as she will rip your throat out if you go in there talking like an idiot. She'll probably give me hell just because I projected eight wins for K-State.  Link: https://twitter.com/kellyinvegas
9. How will Kliff Kingsbury and Brett Bielema do in their first seasons at Texas Tech and Arkansas?  
   
   These were two my two favorite hires of the offseason by a mile, but for different reasons.  On one hand, you have Kingsbury returning home to Lubbock and reinstalling Mike Leach's offense.  Tech went with the exciting, flashy, young coach to replace Tommy T.  Though he is young, there is not a person out there who knows Leach's offense better than Kingsbury, and you can bet your bottom dollar that Tech will be producing an exciting brand of football this season.  For all of you doubters, just look at what Kingsbury did with Manziel last year at Texas A&M.  They may not come anywhere near winning the Big XII championship, but they will be a fun team to watch with Kliff running the show.  Over in Arkansas, the Razorbacks went with the safe play and hired Brett Bielema away from Wisconsin.  The man may not have won a national title up in cheesehead land, but he took Wisconsin to three consecutive Rose Bowl games with an offense that relied on running the ball relentlessly behind massive, talented offensive lineman.  Let's see here....running the ball and offensive line talent...sounds a bit like SEC football doesn't it?  If he can produce an SEC defense, Bielema might be giving Saban and Miles a run for the SEC West down the road.  Bonus Nugget:  While there is no need to discuss what Kliff Kingsbury will do for himself in Lubbock, Brett Bielema needs to be applauded for outkicking his coverage by a mile.  Seriously, he kicked it into the parking lot. 
   
10. In case you had forgotten who Jadeveon Clowney is...

    

Hope you enjoyed the piece, and let me know what has you most excited about the 2013 season.