The Four To Score: Week 9

The Band Journey Once Said: "Don't Stop Winning" 

Another week, another set of picks from The Four To Score going 3-2.  It seems darn near automatic now, given that we've gone 12-6-2 in the last four weeks.  But, you must never settle for complacency, and this week provides us yet another opportunity at getting an elusive undefeated weekend ATS.  Without further hesitation, here are this week's picks.   

First Down: Texas +2.5 vs. TCU; 7:30 PM EST

I'm not going to lie, I was very puzzled when this line opened TCU -3.  The Horned Frogs have been very unimpressive this season, and looked downright awful last week at Oklahoma State.  Texas is coming off its most impressive win of the season against Oklahoma, and had an extra week off to prepare for Gary Patterson's boys.  The Longhorns, which were once dead in the water, now have something to play for, and are a very different team than the one that lost to BYU and Ole Miss.  It should be a close one, but expect Mack Brown and Case McCoy to get the revenge win in Fort Worth. 

Second Down: UCLA +23.5 vs. Oregon; 7:00 PM EST

Another Oregon game, another decision based solely on principle.  This line opened up around Oregon -17, and has been bought up all the way to -23.5.  At that -17 number, Oregon probably has to be the play if there is one to be made there, but a 6.5 point difference makes this a completely different story.  UCLA will have some extra motivation on their side this weekend after struggling at Stanford last week, and their defense will be the best the Ducks have seen all season.  Oregon may be the best team in the country, but remember last week's play against them with Washington State to quell your worries. The Ducks should get the win, but the Bruins will get the cover thanks to the inflated margin.  

Third Down: Oregon State +5 vs. Stanford; 10:30 PM EST

The Beavers have gotten hot, and Sean Mannion is the best quarterback you know nothing about.  Since losing their season opener to Eastern Washington,  Oregon State has reeled off six straight wins, with four of them coming by double digits.  Individually, Mannion has been unreal, throwing for just under 3,000 yards and 29 TDs.  On the flip side, Stanford is in the tail end of its most difficult stretch of the season, having played three very tough opponents in Washington, Utah, and UCLA in the past three weeks.  Last year's game went down to the wire in Palo Alto, with the Cardinal edging out the Beavers after trailing by nine late in the third quarter.  You can expect this game to be very close once again, so take the points with the home team in Corvallis.   

Fourth Down: Oklahoma -6.5 vs. Texas Tech; 3:30 PM EST

Texas Tech comes into this game as one of the last unbeaten teams in college football, after running off seven consecutive wins to start the season.  However, the Red Raiders haven't played a solid team yet this season, and the last thing you went to take into Norman is team that isn't battle-tested.  Historically the home team has dominated this series, as the only road team to get a win since 2004 was Tech in 2011.  When the games have been played in Norman, the Sooners have had their way, usually winning by double digits.  Oklahoma is the more proven commodity, and they are under the key number, making this a no-brainer.  

Extra Point: UCLA OVER 24.5 PTS

The trend is all too common when it comes to Oregon.  They often get out to a big lead, the starters come out, and their opponent scores some garbage time points.  In their last two games, the Ducks have given up 24 or more, and even gave up 38 to Wazzu last weekent.  Although UCLA only scored 10 points last weekend, their offense has shown the capability to put up points this year (averaging 39.8 ppg), and I expect them to get some on the board before Oregon's second and third-stringers come in toward the end of the game.  

The Four To Score: 14-14-2

Extra Points: 3-3-1

Overall: 17-17-3

Texas vs. BYU Aftermath

The Truth, The Whole Truth, And Nothing But The Truth

If you're the type of Texas Longhorn fan who watches Longhorn Network obsessively, and thoroughly enjoys all the sugar-coating they provide, this isn't an article for you.  If you're the type of fan who knows Mack Brown and blindly gives him a pass because of his gentleman qualities, and because he brought this program back from the depths Mackovic took it too, this isn't an article for you.  If you're not the type of fan who critically analyzes your team, athletic department, and university,  then this definitely isn't an article for you.  Actually, if you are one of those fans mentioned above, maybe this is the article for you.  Maybe these words will get through to you.  Hopefully they will make you reassess your view of our athletic culture at Texas, and question what needs to be done on the Forty Acres.  Like Manny Diaz's defense tonight, this isn't going to be pretty.

Before we get into the meaty diatribe this piece will ultimately become, I feel it is only appropriate that I let you know my history with the University of Texas to better understand where I'm coming from.  I was born and raised to be a Texas fan since I was a young tot.  My earliest memories, good and bad, are the upset of Nebraska in the inaugural Big XII championship, and the infamous "Route 66" game against UCLA.  After attending many games with my family during middle and high school, I started attending our glorious university in the Fall of 2007.  I was there for "the good, the bad, and the ugly."  I was there when Colt struggled as a sophomore, and people were calling for John Chiles every weekend.  I was there for both runs at National Championships, from the Crabtree catch in Lubbock to the Colt McCoy injury the Rose Bowl.  Finally, my senior year was the season of 5-7 epic failure, the one that many would argue created the monster we are currently left with.  I love my alma mater, am deeply invested in it, and want only the best for our school in every single way.  So when you read the following following paragraphs, you know the analysis and opinions aren't coming from some jackwagon who has never attended a game at DKR, much less the university.

Tonight was the full reveal of the institutional failure that has pervaded our athletic department for some time now.  To some, this is nothing new, as many people have pointed to the shortcomings at Texas over the past few years.  These fans have often been called irrational, and short-sighted for blaming the higher-ups who got us to where we are today. For others, the ones who have stuck by the team, coaches, and athletic department through thick and thin, tonight has to be the realization that there is something wrong within our athletic department. This goes far beyond blaming Manny Diaz, Major Applewhite, or any other positional coaches.  After all, this staff was hand-picked by the head coach, and they are paid quite handsomely for their coaching duties.  Instead, this loss points directly to the arrogance and blindness of the two most powerful people on the Forty Acres: Mack Brown and Deloss Dodds.  Yes, I'm talking about the coach who said this was the year Texas would be "back."  Yes, I'm talking about the athletic director who has given loose leashes to Mack Brown and Rick Barnes based on their performances many moons ago, despite their inadequacies and failures in their most recent seasons.  Due to the success Dodds and Brown achieved in the mid to late 2000s, they think they can get our program back to where it needs to be.  Yet in reality, they are the ones driving it into the ground, refusing to let go of the reigns when change is desperately needed, almost as if they are the sailors saying "the captain goes down with his ship."

I know no other way than to lay it out in the simplest manner possible.  We have top-notch facilities, an incredible environment for students, and more money than most colleges and third-world countries dream about.  There is no reason an institution such as Texas should fail at anything for an extended period of time based on the advantages it has.  The head coaches of our two biggest revenue-generating sports, football and men's basketball, have underachieved for multiple seasons.  Despite this, the Athletic Director has refused to make any changes, and even worse, President Powers has backed him on it.  If you can't see the easily-apparent institutional failure here, the only thing I can assume is that you've consumed far too many adult beverages tonight, induced by the Longhorns performance.

The only thing the belief held onto by Powers, Dodds, and Brown has led us to is mediocrity.  No longer are we a feared team on the football field.  No sir, the days of Vince Young, Will Muschamp, and us imposing our will on people is long gone.  We are no longer the best football program in the state, or even the second-best program in the state.  Hell, we might not even be the third-best program in the state.  What we truly are is a soft, entitled program mocked by much of the country, led by two of the biggest egos in the entire state that refuse to realize what they have done.      

For those of you who will try to rebut where Brown and Dodds have led us, and argue that no changes should be made, the only argument you can really bring sounds something like this: "they got us here, they've earned the right to stay, and they do things the right way."  In truth though, the only "right way" is to win.  The reality is that everything comes second to winning.  It's the reason why Bobby Petrino will be coaching at a major program in a year or two, and it's the reason Johnny Manziel's antics are forgotten and why he is the starter at Texas A&M.  The good guys at Texas who used to win are no longer winning the way they used to, and it's a fact that cannot be denied.  If you think Texas, one of the biggest and most powerful universities in the country, can't find someone better, or you are afraid to risk further failure that may come with a change in the status quo, then you too have resigned yourself to mediocrity, because there will be no major improvements made under this regime.  Don't let yourself fall into the same trap that Brown and Dodds are ensnared in.  All you have to do is open your eyes...    

   

2013 Texas Longhorns Preview By The Numbers: Part 1

Can The Horns Win It All? A Look At The Numbers That Matter

Mack Brown's unit is receiving a lot of hype ahead of this upcoming season, despite an underwhelming 9-4 season last year.  Recently, Phil Steele went so far as to tab the Longhorns as the fourth best team in the country in his preseason rankings.  Others remain skeptical though, and with good reason when you consider how this team has played over the last three seasons.  The variance in opinions on this team got me interested in trying to decipher what it takes to win a national championship, and then using that information to see whether Texas is a true contender for the 2013 BCS Championship.  Rather than just look at the schedule and the depth chart, I decided to look at what doesn't lie: NUMBERS. 

Over the years of analyzing statistics for sports wagering purposes, I've learned that the Yards Per Play (YPP) statistic is one of the most useful tools available for truly gauging a team's performance on both sides of the ball.  YPP is much better to use than the Yards Per Game (YPG) statistic, because it shows which offenses and defenses are more efficient, and thus better overall.  This is especially true in college football, as teams that run up-tempo offenses are going to run more plays, and inevitably gain more yards.  After sifting through the numbers of recent seasons, the recipe for winning a title is quite apparent. Included below are statistics for every BCS National Champion since the 2004-2005 season.

      2004 USC Trojans: 6.2 Yards For, 4.1 Against, +2.1 Differential

      2005 Texas Longhorns: 7.0 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +2.8 Differential

      2006 Florida Gators: 5.9 Yards For, 4.3 Against, +1.6 Differential

      2007: LSU Tigers: 5.7 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +1.5 Differential

      2008 Florida Gators: 6.7 Yards For, 4.4 Against, +2.3 Differential

      2009 Alabama Crimson Tide: 5.8 Yards For, 4.1 Against, +1.7 Differential

      2010 Auburn Tigers: 7.0 Yards For, 5.2 Against, +1.8 Differential

      2011 Alabama Crimson Tide: 6.4 Yards For, 3.0 Against, +3.4 Differential

      2012 Alabama Crimson Tide: 6.6 Yards For, 4.0 Against, +2.6 Differential

      Averages: 6.4 Yards For, 4.2 Against, 2.2 Differential

When you look at the numbers on the whole, two major things stick out for determining what wins championships.  First, every champion has had a YPP Differential of at least 1.5.  Second, every champion except the 2010 Auburn Tigers gave up a maximum of 4.4 YPP on defense.  The 2011 Alabama Defense, which some consider as the best of all time, should be considered an outlier at the opposite end of the spectrum.  Thus, the trophy-winning recipe is fairly simple in terms of YPP: a differential of 1.5, and a defense is in the low 4's in terms of YPP.  

Now that we've figured out what champions are made of, it's time use that information and apply it to this year's version of the Texas Longhorns.  In order to get a historical sense of how Texas has done in terms of YPP, I've included those statistics for every year since the 2004-2005 season.  

      2004 Texas: 6.2 Yards For, 4.7 Against, +1.5 Differential

      2005 Texas: 7.0 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +2.8 Differential

      2006 Texas: 5.8 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +0.8 Differential

      2007 Texas: 6.0 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +1.0 Differential

      2008 Texas: 6.4 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +1.4 Differential

      2009 Texas: 5.4 Yards For, 3.7 Against, +1.7 Differential

      2010 Texas: 5.2 Yards For, 4.6 Against, +0.6 Differential

      2011 Texas: 5.2 Yards For, 4.5 Against, +0.7 Differential

      2012 Texas: 6.2 Yards For, 5.7 Against, +0.5 Differential

      Averages: 5.9 Yards For, 4.7 Against, +1.2 Differential   

When you look at Texas' numbers over the years, you realize that they fit the mold of our championship recipe.  The years in which Texas was in contention for (2004, 2008), or played for the National Championship (2005, 2009), their differential was right around 1.5 or better.  Notably, the two teams that were in contention for the title but did not make it (2004, 2008) both had defensive YPP's higher than the 4.5 threshold.

Looking ahead though, it becomes quite obvious what Texas needs to do to be in contention to lift the crystal ball next year: keep the offense trucking along and IMPROVE THE DEFENSE.  Yes, the offense struggled at times last year, but the 6.2 YPP is going to win you a ton of games.  Hell, it was 0.8 YPP better than the 2009 team that played for the BCS National Championship and had Colt McCoy running the show! With nine starters returning on offense, an experienced offensive line, and one of the best backfields in the country, you have to figure that the offensive production won't decrease. 

Thus, from a numerical standpoint, Texas' chances at playing in Pasadena hinge solely on the defense improving upon their horrible 2012 season.  The Longhorns finished 72nd in Defensive YPP last year, in what turned out to be the worst defensive performance in the history of the program.  It was so bad, that it was a minimum of 0.7 YPP worse than any other Texas team since Vince Young was under center.  Odds are that the defense can't get any worse than last season,  so what kind of numbers do we need to see to have Texas make a run? If the Offensive YPP stays roughly the same at 6.2, a Defensive YPP of 4.7 would give us a +1.5 Differential, the threshold for every BCS National Champion since 2003-2004.  Last year's defense was on the field for roughly 71 plays per game, and if you carry that number over to this season, Texas will need to only give up 333.7 YPG to achieve a 4.7 YPP.

That should definitely be manageable from both a historical, and current standpoint.  From the Texas statistics listed above, the Longhorns surrendered less than 333.7 YPG in six of the nine seasons I included.  Additionally, in Manny Diaz's first season, the Horns only gave up 306.1 YPG.  Though his defense struggled mightily last year after Jordan Hicks went down with an injury (Texas gave up over 570 YPG in three of the four games immediately following Hicks' injury) , Diaz has proven in the past that he can put up staunch defensive numbers. With nine starters returning, lots of turnover at the quarterback position in the Big XII, and only two difficult road games, all signs are pointing toward a turnaround for the Texas defensive unit.

Final Verdict:  From my analysis, I'm fairly confident in predicting that Texas will contend for the BCS National Championship this season.  The offense shouldn't see their YPP decrease, and the 4.7 Defensive YPP is more than manageable when you look at the schedule, and the number of players returning from last year.  Adding to my belief that a 4.7 Defensive YPP is manageable is the fact that if you exclude the four games immediately following Hicks' injury last season, the Defensive YPP for Texas was 4.64.  If the Defensive YPP falls to the low 4's, then there is no reason this team should not be playing for it all in Pasadena come January.  Based on what the numbers tell me, the 33/1 that Vegas is currently offering on Texas to win the BCS National Championship seems like an extremely tempting play.

Be on the lookout for the second half of this 2013 Texas Longhorn Preview By The Numbers, where I'll analyze the spreads already offered by Vegas for each Texas game.  Hope you enjoyed the read, and let me know what you think in the comments area below.                  

  

100 Days Away From The First Saturday Of College Football

The 10 Things I'm Looking Forward To

1. Can Jadeveon Clowney become the first defensive player to win the Heisman since Charles Woodson?  The guy is an athletic freak.  Anyone who has watched a hint of college football or ESPN  knows this guy will be the first pick in next year's draft, and he probably would have been taken first this year if he had been draft eligible.  He finished last season with 13 sacks, setting the single season record at South Carolina in a campaign that saw him receive the AT&T All America Player of The Year award.  Offenses are going to do their best to limit Clowney via scheme and double teams, but odds are that he will still have a monster season.  The only question is whether he can unseat the guy that comes in at #2 on this last.      
2. What does Johnny Football do for an encore after becoming the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy?
   
   Yes, the kid is cocky.  Yes, the kid posts some stuff on the internet that he should probably just keep to himself.  But facts are facts, and Manziel is a winner.  Johnny Football is a flat-out gamer, and as much as it pains me to say it, the Aggies will probably have another good season down in College Station.  That being said, the odds are against him becoming only the second player to win two Heisman trophies.  Remember, not even Tim Tebow could accomplish that with the ESPN hype machine behind him.  Manziel lost a key member of his offensive line to the draft in Luke Joeckel, and the A&M defense will have some problems in getting off the field this season.  He's also going to face stiff competition from Jadeveon Clowney, De'Anthony Thomas, and other great players around the country.  I just can't see a repeat happening this year, but if anyone can do it after Tebow missed out, it's Johnny Football.   
3. Alabama at Texas A&M, September 14, 2013 at 2:30 PM on CBS.
   
   Prepare yourselves, Aggies.  Nick Saban is coming for you.  You can bet every penny in your bank account that Nick Saban has this date circled in blood on his calendar.  The best ball coach in the land will be out for revenge on September 14th, and the people in College Station have every right to be terrified of what might happen on that afternoon in mid-September.  The last time Nick Saban coached a revenge game, LSU couldn't cross the fifty yard line when they played for the 2012 BCS National Championship.  Now he's got an experienced quarterback with two national titles under his belt going up against a very suspect defense.  This has "recipe for disaster" written all over it for the Aggies.  Alabama will probably open up as a 3.5 or 4 point favorite in this one, and I'd highly recommend you lay the points.  Sorry Aggies, but the Death Star is pointed right at you, and Luke Skywalker is nowhere in sight. 
4. What will Oregon look like without Chip Kelly at the helm?
   
   Chip did his best Pete Carroll impression and got the heck out of Eugene when the time was right, taking his craft to the NFL.  It's hard to see the Ducks regressing though because of the pieces still there.  They return eight starters on offense, including quarterback Marcus Mariota and running back De'Anthony Thomas, who just might be the fastest man in college football.  The Ducks will still keep the fast-paced offense in place, and should still produce a solid unit on a defense.  I don't know if playing for the national title is in the cards, but I could definitely see the Ducks taking a conference championship back to Eugene this season.
5. How will the LSU Defense perform after having eight players selected in the 2013 NFL Draft?
   
   The fact that LSU had eight defensive players drafted is a testament to the talent that the coaches in Baton Rouge develop and produce on a yearly basis.  Maybe the Cajun cooking has something to do with it, but whatever it is, The Mad Hatter and S&C Coach Tommy Moffitt churn out defensive talent no matter the circumstances.  Yet you have to think that losing so many players to the draft in one year is going to have an impact.  They'll still be a pretty good unit, but a there will be a lot of young players out there that are bound to make some errors and get exposed from time to time.  Bonus Nugget: LSU will once again have the best name in college football, this time with Ego Ferguson.
6. Can Mack Brown finally get back over the hump and beat Oklahoma?
   
   Mack is feeling the pressure, and it will only keep increasing until the Oklahoma game in October.  The recipe for success is incredibly simple.  Since 2000, Texas has gone to a BCS game every time it has beaten Oklahoma except for Colt McCoy's freshman season in 2006.  You beat Oklahoma, and everything else takes care of itself.  With Landry Jones gone, it's now or never for Mack Brown and company.  The Longhorns return tons of talent on both sides of the ball, including the most experienced quarterback in the Big XII in David Ash.  Win the Red River Rivalry game, and both the conference championship and BCS games are well within reach.  If Mack fails to get the best of Bob Stoops, he'll be cleaning out his office at the end of the season.
7. Will Lane Kiffin save his job at USC?  
   
   Probably the only coach feeling the same amount of pressure, if not more, is Lane Kiffin at USC.  The Trojans were nowhere near meeting expectations in Los Angeles last season, and the pressure is on for Kiffin to right the ship.  A favorable schedule should give Kiffin more time though, as the USC's only two tough road games are at Notre Dame and across town at UCLA.  The Trojans get Stanford at home, and don't have to face the Oregon Ducks in the regular season.  Although Matt Barkley is gone, Marqise Lee is still on campus to take some of the pressure off Max Wittek's shoulders or whoever else Kiffin puts under center.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Kiffin let go after this year, but I think he'll still be in Los Angeles for the 2014 season.  Bonus Nugget: Lane Kiffin may not be doing well on the field, but boy did he do well off the field.  Well done, Lane.
   
8. How much will Kansas State regress without Optimus Klein?  
   
   Colin Klein has left Manhattan, so you can expect the Wildcats to be down a bit this year.  Don't expect a disaster though, as Bill Snyder is one of the best in the business at getting the most out of his talent.  What that guy has done at Kansas State is remarkable.  I shudder to think what he could do if he had the talent that Texas and Oklahoma get every year.  It might be a an eight-win season for K-State this year, but don't be surprised if Snyder and the Wildcats pull off an upset at home against TCU or Oklahoma in November.  Lord knows they want give someone the treatment that Baylor gave them last season.  Side Note:  If you are on Twitter, you need to follow @kellyinvegas.  Beautiful gal that knows her stuff about college football and sports betting.  Be careful what you tweet though, as she will rip your throat out if you go in there talking like an idiot. She'll probably give me hell just because I projected eight wins for K-State.  Link: https://twitter.com/kellyinvegas
9. How will Kliff Kingsbury and Brett Bielema do in their first seasons at Texas Tech and Arkansas?  
   
   These were two my two favorite hires of the offseason by a mile, but for different reasons.  On one hand, you have Kingsbury returning home to Lubbock and reinstalling Mike Leach's offense.  Tech went with the exciting, flashy, young coach to replace Tommy T.  Though he is young, there is not a person out there who knows Leach's offense better than Kingsbury, and you can bet your bottom dollar that Tech will be producing an exciting brand of football this season.  For all of you doubters, just look at what Kingsbury did with Manziel last year at Texas A&M.  They may not come anywhere near winning the Big XII championship, but they will be a fun team to watch with Kliff running the show.  Over in Arkansas, the Razorbacks went with the safe play and hired Brett Bielema away from Wisconsin.  The man may not have won a national title up in cheesehead land, but he took Wisconsin to three consecutive Rose Bowl games with an offense that relied on running the ball relentlessly behind massive, talented offensive lineman.  Let's see here....running the ball and offensive line talent...sounds a bit like SEC football doesn't it?  If he can produce an SEC defense, Bielema might be giving Saban and Miles a run for the SEC West down the road.  Bonus Nugget:  While there is no need to discuss what Kliff Kingsbury will do for himself in Lubbock, Brett Bielema needs to be applauded for outkicking his coverage by a mile.  Seriously, he kicked it into the parking lot. 
   
10. In case you had forgotten who Jadeveon Clowney is...

    

Hope you enjoyed the piece, and let me know what has you most excited about the 2013 season.