2013 Texas Longhorns Preview By The Numbers: Part 1

Can The Horns Win It All? A Look At The Numbers That Matter

Mack Brown's unit is receiving a lot of hype ahead of this upcoming season, despite an underwhelming 9-4 season last year.  Recently, Phil Steele went so far as to tab the Longhorns as the fourth best team in the country in his preseason rankings.  Others remain skeptical though, and with good reason when you consider how this team has played over the last three seasons.  The variance in opinions on this team got me interested in trying to decipher what it takes to win a national championship, and then using that information to see whether Texas is a true contender for the 2013 BCS Championship.  Rather than just look at the schedule and the depth chart, I decided to look at what doesn't lie: NUMBERS. 

Over the years of analyzing statistics for sports wagering purposes, I've learned that the Yards Per Play (YPP) statistic is one of the most useful tools available for truly gauging a team's performance on both sides of the ball.  YPP is much better to use than the Yards Per Game (YPG) statistic, because it shows which offenses and defenses are more efficient, and thus better overall.  This is especially true in college football, as teams that run up-tempo offenses are going to run more plays, and inevitably gain more yards.  After sifting through the numbers of recent seasons, the recipe for winning a title is quite apparent. Included below are statistics for every BCS National Champion since the 2004-2005 season.

      2004 USC Trojans: 6.2 Yards For, 4.1 Against, +2.1 Differential

      2005 Texas Longhorns: 7.0 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +2.8 Differential

      2006 Florida Gators: 5.9 Yards For, 4.3 Against, +1.6 Differential

      2007: LSU Tigers: 5.7 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +1.5 Differential

      2008 Florida Gators: 6.7 Yards For, 4.4 Against, +2.3 Differential

      2009 Alabama Crimson Tide: 5.8 Yards For, 4.1 Against, +1.7 Differential

      2010 Auburn Tigers: 7.0 Yards For, 5.2 Against, +1.8 Differential

      2011 Alabama Crimson Tide: 6.4 Yards For, 3.0 Against, +3.4 Differential

      2012 Alabama Crimson Tide: 6.6 Yards For, 4.0 Against, +2.6 Differential

      Averages: 6.4 Yards For, 4.2 Against, 2.2 Differential

When you look at the numbers on the whole, two major things stick out for determining what wins championships.  First, every champion has had a YPP Differential of at least 1.5.  Second, every champion except the 2010 Auburn Tigers gave up a maximum of 4.4 YPP on defense.  The 2011 Alabama Defense, which some consider as the best of all time, should be considered an outlier at the opposite end of the spectrum.  Thus, the trophy-winning recipe is fairly simple in terms of YPP: a differential of 1.5, and a defense is in the low 4's in terms of YPP.  

Now that we've figured out what champions are made of, it's time use that information and apply it to this year's version of the Texas Longhorns.  In order to get a historical sense of how Texas has done in terms of YPP, I've included those statistics for every year since the 2004-2005 season.  

      2004 Texas: 6.2 Yards For, 4.7 Against, +1.5 Differential

      2005 Texas: 7.0 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +2.8 Differential

      2006 Texas: 5.8 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +0.8 Differential

      2007 Texas: 6.0 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +1.0 Differential

      2008 Texas: 6.4 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +1.4 Differential

      2009 Texas: 5.4 Yards For, 3.7 Against, +1.7 Differential

      2010 Texas: 5.2 Yards For, 4.6 Against, +0.6 Differential

      2011 Texas: 5.2 Yards For, 4.5 Against, +0.7 Differential

      2012 Texas: 6.2 Yards For, 5.7 Against, +0.5 Differential

      Averages: 5.9 Yards For, 4.7 Against, +1.2 Differential   

When you look at Texas' numbers over the years, you realize that they fit the mold of our championship recipe.  The years in which Texas was in contention for (2004, 2008), or played for the National Championship (2005, 2009), their differential was right around 1.5 or better.  Notably, the two teams that were in contention for the title but did not make it (2004, 2008) both had defensive YPP's higher than the 4.5 threshold.

Looking ahead though, it becomes quite obvious what Texas needs to do to be in contention to lift the crystal ball next year: keep the offense trucking along and IMPROVE THE DEFENSE.  Yes, the offense struggled at times last year, but the 6.2 YPP is going to win you a ton of games.  Hell, it was 0.8 YPP better than the 2009 team that played for the BCS National Championship and had Colt McCoy running the show! With nine starters returning on offense, an experienced offensive line, and one of the best backfields in the country, you have to figure that the offensive production won't decrease. 

Thus, from a numerical standpoint, Texas' chances at playing in Pasadena hinge solely on the defense improving upon their horrible 2012 season.  The Longhorns finished 72nd in Defensive YPP last year, in what turned out to be the worst defensive performance in the history of the program.  It was so bad, that it was a minimum of 0.7 YPP worse than any other Texas team since Vince Young was under center.  Odds are that the defense can't get any worse than last season,  so what kind of numbers do we need to see to have Texas make a run? If the Offensive YPP stays roughly the same at 6.2, a Defensive YPP of 4.7 would give us a +1.5 Differential, the threshold for every BCS National Champion since 2003-2004.  Last year's defense was on the field for roughly 71 plays per game, and if you carry that number over to this season, Texas will need to only give up 333.7 YPG to achieve a 4.7 YPP.

That should definitely be manageable from both a historical, and current standpoint.  From the Texas statistics listed above, the Longhorns surrendered less than 333.7 YPG in six of the nine seasons I included.  Additionally, in Manny Diaz's first season, the Horns only gave up 306.1 YPG.  Though his defense struggled mightily last year after Jordan Hicks went down with an injury (Texas gave up over 570 YPG in three of the four games immediately following Hicks' injury) , Diaz has proven in the past that he can put up staunch defensive numbers. With nine starters returning, lots of turnover at the quarterback position in the Big XII, and only two difficult road games, all signs are pointing toward a turnaround for the Texas defensive unit.

Final Verdict:  From my analysis, I'm fairly confident in predicting that Texas will contend for the BCS National Championship this season.  The offense shouldn't see their YPP decrease, and the 4.7 Defensive YPP is more than manageable when you look at the schedule, and the number of players returning from last year.  Adding to my belief that a 4.7 Defensive YPP is manageable is the fact that if you exclude the four games immediately following Hicks' injury last season, the Defensive YPP for Texas was 4.64.  If the Defensive YPP falls to the low 4's, then there is no reason this team should not be playing for it all in Pasadena come January.  Based on what the numbers tell me, the 33/1 that Vegas is currently offering on Texas to win the BCS National Championship seems like an extremely tempting play.

Be on the lookout for the second half of this 2013 Texas Longhorn Preview By The Numbers, where I'll analyze the spreads already offered by Vegas for each Texas game.  Hope you enjoyed the read, and let me know what you think in the comments area below.