The Realm of Football: Part Two

And the Lord Jameis hath said: "Thou shall plow thine's woman right in her nether reigons." 

Ah, yes...Who would have thought a mere string of words could bring down the playoff hopes and dreams of an entire university? Unbelievably so, the sentence so aptly translated by David Tenenbaum (Twitter: @DTenenbaum) nearly did just that. If it wasn't for the heroics of trusty Squire Maguire and Clemson being Clemson, the mighty Seminoles would find themselves eliminated from playoff contention before the arrival of October. Instead, we will now more than likely be forced to see the realm's least liked player playing for it all in January, leaving us to forever curse the name "Dabo" for not doing the deed. Beyond the shenanigans of Lord Jameis (probably more apt to call him Jameis the Jester), there were plenty of other intriguing happenings in the realm, leaving us with a quite a bit to decipher and discuss. Here are just a few of the things on our feeble minds after four weeks of football.

1. The tide is rising in Mississippi, not Alabama.

Dak The Destroyer eviscerated The Mad Hatter's defense.

Before Paul Finebaum callers start harassing us, Alabama did some really impressive things this week against Florida. We all knew that Amari Cooper isn't from this planet, instead hailing from the some other land in our galaxy that gave birth to Julio Jones. Additionally, Blake Sims looked like a damn good quarterback, making us eat our words for ever doubting a Nick Saban QB (Greg McElroy excluded). That being said, this is what the realm is supposed to expect of Alabama: they have the best recruiting haul year in and year out, have phenomenal facilities, and the Dark Lord of Defense running their ship. Contrast that with the Ole Miss Rebels and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. No one expects anything from these units. Since the earliest days of the realm, these programs have been seen as the Hodors of college football…and now the Hodors just might be contenders for the championship. Though there are still a ton of conference tilts left to be played, both have shown themselves to be capable of going toe to toe with Alabama and Auburn. Nkemdiche's unit in Oxford looked nasty against Boise, laying hard hit after hard hit against the Broncos in the season opener. Combine that with a Bo Wallace that merely distributes and avoids the big mistakes (pray to the CFB Gods for this), and Rebels fans have many reasons to believe they could be playing for it all in Atlanta in December. However, the more impressive team from The Magnolia State is unquestionably Mississippi State. Dan Mullen's group, led by the fearsome DAK THE DESTROYER went into Death Valley, at night, and whipped the Mad Hatter and his crew into submission. Most ardent followers of the game have known about Dak for some time, making the defense's performance the most unbelievable of the night. The Bulldogs went into Baton Rouge, and didn't concede a touchdown to LSU's offense (which has two very good RBs in Hilliard and Fournette) until the fourth quarter. These Mississippi teams are for real, citizens of the realm. Do we dare say that the Egg Bowl will decide the winner of the SEC West? Hard as that may be to fathom, this could be the year that winter indeed comes. 

2. The PAC 12 has challenged the SEC to a trial by combat to decide the best conference race of the season.

Making the winning catch while apparently taking a shot to the jewels? LEGENDARY.

We're not backtracking from what we said about the SEC West a few weeks ago in the first edition of The Realm of Football. Furthermore, the SEC East looks to be wide open given the unpredictability of Spurrier's squad, and the fact that Mark Richt and Gary Pinkel are still in control of Georgia and Mizzou. Yet despite how great these races should be, if this past weekend was any indication, the PAC 12 race will give the SEC all it can handle. The final hours of Saturday night were full of west coast mayhem, as there were two fantastic contests finishing within minutes of each other. First, Pullman began to look like Lubbock, as the Ducks were able to hold off Mike Leach's pesky offense despite giving up seven sacks. Only minutes later, the Cardiac Cats from Tucson completed an unbelievable comeback that included 36 fourth quarter points, and the Hill Mary. Much like the SEC, this conference has shown us that even the bottom feeders can give the top dogs a run, which should lead to an incredible race. Just think about it: USC looked promising after beating Stanford, then fell to lowly BC; UCLA was a popular playoff pick, but has looked unimpressive, and Hundley's status is up in the air; ASU has lost Taylor Kelly for a few weeks, so who knows what the Sun Devils will look like; Utah just went to Ann Arbor and beat the snot out of Michigan in the Big House; Stanford is still a pretty good squad that should get close to 10 wins. There are a ton of unknowns right now in the PAC 12 outside of a certain dude up in Eugene, and it will be fun to watch those questions get answered over the coming weeks.

3. Speaking of that dude in Eugene…

ALL HAIL THE ONE TRUE KING, KING MARIOTA. We can't hide our Marcus Mariota bromance here at Rushing The Field. Even if Lord Jameis wasn't engaging in hijinks, he'd still be second best to the man at the helm of the dystopian duck cyborg blood machine. Despite his offensive line not showing up last week in Pullman, Mariota still went 21-25 for 329 yards and 5 TDs, which also included a key 28 yard scamper on 4th and 10 late in the third quarter when the game was tied. And his yearly stats, you ask? A mere 71 of 96 for 1135 yards and 13 TDs, plus three more scores and 214 yards on the ground. If he can continue at this pace over the next 8 games, he'll finish with over 3,000 yards passing, close to 1,000 on the ground, and roughly 48 combined TDs. Let's hope the Ducks' O-Line can shape up and keep the king upright, as we might be witnessing one of the greatest individual seasons ever. 

4. Marcus is The King, but Optimus Perine may be the baddest man in the land.

CFB's Greg Oden…Someone check this guy's birth certificate!

As West Virginia learned this past week, Samaje Perine is not to be messed with, and is not easy to bring down. College football's version of Greg Oden had his coming out party this weekend, and what a scene it was. 34 carries, 242 yards, 4 TDs. I can't even begin to tell you how many of those yards were after first contact, as the 5'11" true freshman made countless WVU defenders regret taking the field Saturday night. He may not be as dynamic as a certain former Sooner currently in trouble with the law, but he's a bowling ball of a bruiser that is going to wear down Big XII teams left and right in the weeks to come. Either way, the RB by committee experiment at Oklahoma has ended, as Optimus Perine has taken the reigns.

5. Charlie Strong inherited a sacked and smoldering House Longhorn. 

At least they gave Charlie a sweet cowboy hat. 

You know it's bad when you see Twitter debates among respected sports writers and CFB analysts about whether Mack left the program in better shape than Mackovic. Yes, John Freaking Mackovic. Mackovic certainly didn't win a national championship, and the program certainly wasn't the behemoth in terms of national attention it is now thanks to Grandaddy Mack, but when you look at the talent on this squad, you start to wonder what in the world Mack was doing in his last four years on The Forty. If you check NFL DraftScout, you'll find that only six Longhorns are projected to be drafted this season, and while it's still early and much better than last year's donut in the draft, none are projected higher than the 3rd round. It must be said that this website somehow has not included DT Malcom Brown in its rankings, and the one shining star of the Longhorns could be a first or second round pick after this season should he come out. Still, when you're the University of Texas, and you have only one guy who MIGHT be a first round draft pick, someone wasn't doing their job in both recruiting and developing talent. Keep in mind, Mackovic won three conference championships in his last four seasons on The Forty, and left Mack Brown some serious talent in Ricky Williams, Casey Hampton, Shaun Rogers, Leonard Davis, Mike Williams, and Quentin Jammer. There is nothing anywhere close to that on this year's roster. Barring the NCAA allowing Vince Young to suit up again for the Horns, it's going to take a few years for Charlie to get this program back to where it was from 2004-2009 in terms of talent. Let's just hope the burnt orange fanatics can keep that in mind while Charlie rebuilds the house.

Anyone see some Mack and DeLoss in here?

That's all for this week in The Realm of Football! We hope you are enjoying our sub-optimal blogging, and please feel free to share it with other citizens of the realm.

The Realm of Football: Part One

"They are we thought they were!"....Or maybe not? 

The first two weeks are in the books, and The Realm of Football still stands similar to how it did before the season started...for the most part. Certainly there were some scares, as Mike Gundy had Jameis Winston looking at Oklahoma State like they were a group of Publix security guards. Yet some things are going according to plan, as Marcus Mariota looks like the one true king that can unify The Realm, despite the arrival of the potential usurper known as "Kenny Trill." However, there has been one major turning point in the evolving story, told last weekend across varying states in the north. House Delany was pillaged, sacked, and burned to the ground, as Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan were all publicly beheaded in their primetime matchups. Fear not though, members of House Delany. Given recent showings, House Bowlsby is looking equally weak, especially after the Mormons had their way with the house's first-born child, refusing to even offer her a nice meal before completely ruining her. Indeed, The Realm of Football can be a savage place. Let's review some of the happenings from the first two weeks, and look ahead at what may happen in the months to come.  

1. Be hesitant with the "anointing oils", as they will often light your ass on fire and make you look like an idiot.  

So often in the early weeks, overreactions are made without taking a step back and remembering where we are in the course of a football season. Crowns are placed on the heads of some, and others call for houses to be burned to the ground in Evan Williams fueled rage. One week it's: "Oh my God, this offense is the greater than listening to angry Will Muschamp." The next: "The only thing worse than that defense is taking heroin. Actually, taking heroin would probably be better than having to watch that defense again." 

Two prime examples of this phenomena are the Charlie Strong Players Not Yet Kicked Off The Team and the Arizona Wildcats. Both fan bases were jacked up on Mountain Dew after the first weekend of football, as the Texas defense held North Texas to 94 yards of total offense, and The Fighting Rich Rods put up nine billion yards of offense against UNLV with a new quarterback and no Ka'Deem Carey. Fast forward to Week 2, and the Wildcats are fighting for their lives to escape San Antonio (yes, there is D-1 football in San Antonio) with a win, followed by the Burnt Orange Sea parting for Mormon Tebow to galavant into the end zone repeatedly. 

Mormon Tebow > Dylan Haynes 

The simple fact is that it is still way too early in the season to make calls on how most of these teams will look at season's end, and that there is still a ton of football to play. Plenty of time is left for teams to develop and grow into a better version than what they currently are, and plenty of time remains for the wheels to come off the bus. Lets wait a few more weeks before deciding whether to break out the twenty-one year scotch, or down grain alcohol without a mixer.

2. Regarding Marcus Mariota...forget what was said above. All Hail King Mariota. 

Through two weeks: 31-48 for 585 yds, 6 TDs; 15 rushes for 85 yards and 1 TD. 

Get yo hands off The King

670 yards of total offense, 7 TDs, no INTs....And a double-digit win over a Top 10 team. Ladies and gentlemen, the best player in the country is officially your Heisman frontrunner. 

3. Kenny Trill is just another cog in the Kevin Sumlin Offense WonderMachine

"You see, Kenny, I push this button, and voila, 500 yards of offense."

Don't get me wrong, I think Kenny Hill is a fantastic player. As good as he is though, that performance against South Carolina validated my belief that there isn't a better coach than Sumlin when it comes to developing quarterbacks. Just think about the players Sumlin has molded in recent years: Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, Johnny Manziel, and now Kenny Hill. Lots of insane numbers, and two of those big shiny trophies called "Heismans" comprise the notches on Sumlin's belt. Of course it's still early in the season, and the South Carolina defensive performance was the prequel to Texas' 3rd Quarter play, but you can't ignore the way Hill put up the numbers he did. He was throwing the ball all over the field with confidence, and marching down the field on damn near every drive. 

Hill will struggle at some point, as nearly all freshmen do. Yet based on Sumlin's past development of quarterbacks, the state of Texas will be his to rule over so long as he remains in College Station. If you're a high school quarterback or wide receiver in Texas with dreams of playing on Sunday, how could you not choose to play for the best offensive coach in the best conference in The Realm of Football?

4. Speaking of the best conference in the realm...   

The race for the SEC West will be the best in the country, and it won't even be close. Outside of maybe Arkansas, every team in this division is capable of beating anyone on any given night. While this division has generally been ruled by LSU and Alabama (with the occasional War Eagle sighting), the parity this year is incredible. 

Alabama is stacked with talent like always, but the quarterback debate still hasn't been settled, which could certainly lead to problems when the Tide begin conference play. 

Auburn and Texas A&M can score with anyone, but will either team be confident in getting a stop when it matters? 

LSU has a pair of incredible running backs, but the team looked shaky against Wisconsin. 

Ole Miss has a stout defense and great WRs, but Bo Wallace is the ultimate case of Jekyl & Hyde.

Mississipi State can't be slept on, as they hung tough in just about every big game last year, and now have Dak Prescott solidified and playing well at QB. 

Throw in the possibility of the Woo Pig RBs going off to cause an upset here or there, and you have a division race that could be filled with carnage every week. Leave your predictions about this division at the door, sit back, and enjoy the show.

5. B1G has already lost its head. House Bowlsby looks to be next on the chopping block.

The only reason the Big XII still has its head above water is because Oklahoma and Baylor have kept it afloat. There was hope for the conference after Week 1, given the inspiring performances of middle-tier Oklahoma State and West Virginia against national powerhouses. Then Week 2 happened, and House Bowlsby soiled itself. Beyond the drubbing in Austin, Kansas State needed a massive comeback late in the game to beat Iowa State, who had lost to North Dakota State the week before. (Memo to all Big XII teams: Do not play NDSU. Fool us once, shame on you. Fool us twice, shame on us, and we look like idiots.) 

Despite two W's, Tech has fallen flat on its....You get the picture. 

Last but not least, Texas Tech has proven itself to be the most undisciplined team in football. In defeating mega dominant powerhouses UTEP (they probably should have lost to the Miners) and Central Arkansas by a combined whopping 11 points, the Red Raiders racked up 25 penalties for 204 yards. Having fun and wearing "Beyonce is Bae" shirts is great and all, but this isn't a squad that can win against the better teams on its schedule while being that undisciplined. They certainly can't let it happen this week, considering their defense (108th nationally in run defense) is going up against arguably the best stable of running backs in the country. Don't be surprised if Woo Pig runs wild this weekend in Lubbock. 

6. Puddles the Duck is the greatest mascot to have ever graced the realm. 

If Marcus Mariota is the king, then Puddles is surely The Hand who pulls the strings in this realm. Should you have any doubts about it, this video will put you in your place. Unlike Kim Jong-Un, may Puddles actually live 1,000 years. (For further reading on this national treasure, read Spencer Hall's fantastic piece from earlier this week.)

That's all for this week in The Realm of Football. Be sure to follow the blog, and if you appreciate what we're producing here, share it with your friends!  

  

Texas vs. BYU Aftermath

The Truth, The Whole Truth, And Nothing But The Truth

If you're the type of Texas Longhorn fan who watches Longhorn Network obsessively, and thoroughly enjoys all the sugar-coating they provide, this isn't an article for you.  If you're the type of fan who knows Mack Brown and blindly gives him a pass because of his gentleman qualities, and because he brought this program back from the depths Mackovic took it too, this isn't an article for you.  If you're not the type of fan who critically analyzes your team, athletic department, and university,  then this definitely isn't an article for you.  Actually, if you are one of those fans mentioned above, maybe this is the article for you.  Maybe these words will get through to you.  Hopefully they will make you reassess your view of our athletic culture at Texas, and question what needs to be done on the Forty Acres.  Like Manny Diaz's defense tonight, this isn't going to be pretty.

Before we get into the meaty diatribe this piece will ultimately become, I feel it is only appropriate that I let you know my history with the University of Texas to better understand where I'm coming from.  I was born and raised to be a Texas fan since I was a young tot.  My earliest memories, good and bad, are the upset of Nebraska in the inaugural Big XII championship, and the infamous "Route 66" game against UCLA.  After attending many games with my family during middle and high school, I started attending our glorious university in the Fall of 2007.  I was there for "the good, the bad, and the ugly."  I was there when Colt struggled as a sophomore, and people were calling for John Chiles every weekend.  I was there for both runs at National Championships, from the Crabtree catch in Lubbock to the Colt McCoy injury the Rose Bowl.  Finally, my senior year was the season of 5-7 epic failure, the one that many would argue created the monster we are currently left with.  I love my alma mater, am deeply invested in it, and want only the best for our school in every single way.  So when you read the following following paragraphs, you know the analysis and opinions aren't coming from some jackwagon who has never attended a game at DKR, much less the university.

Tonight was the full reveal of the institutional failure that has pervaded our athletic department for some time now.  To some, this is nothing new, as many people have pointed to the shortcomings at Texas over the past few years.  These fans have often been called irrational, and short-sighted for blaming the higher-ups who got us to where we are today. For others, the ones who have stuck by the team, coaches, and athletic department through thick and thin, tonight has to be the realization that there is something wrong within our athletic department. This goes far beyond blaming Manny Diaz, Major Applewhite, or any other positional coaches.  After all, this staff was hand-picked by the head coach, and they are paid quite handsomely for their coaching duties.  Instead, this loss points directly to the arrogance and blindness of the two most powerful people on the Forty Acres: Mack Brown and Deloss Dodds.  Yes, I'm talking about the coach who said this was the year Texas would be "back."  Yes, I'm talking about the athletic director who has given loose leashes to Mack Brown and Rick Barnes based on their performances many moons ago, despite their inadequacies and failures in their most recent seasons.  Due to the success Dodds and Brown achieved in the mid to late 2000s, they think they can get our program back to where it needs to be.  Yet in reality, they are the ones driving it into the ground, refusing to let go of the reigns when change is desperately needed, almost as if they are the sailors saying "the captain goes down with his ship."

I know no other way than to lay it out in the simplest manner possible.  We have top-notch facilities, an incredible environment for students, and more money than most colleges and third-world countries dream about.  There is no reason an institution such as Texas should fail at anything for an extended period of time based on the advantages it has.  The head coaches of our two biggest revenue-generating sports, football and men's basketball, have underachieved for multiple seasons.  Despite this, the Athletic Director has refused to make any changes, and even worse, President Powers has backed him on it.  If you can't see the easily-apparent institutional failure here, the only thing I can assume is that you've consumed far too many adult beverages tonight, induced by the Longhorns performance.

The only thing the belief held onto by Powers, Dodds, and Brown has led us to is mediocrity.  No longer are we a feared team on the football field.  No sir, the days of Vince Young, Will Muschamp, and us imposing our will on people is long gone.  We are no longer the best football program in the state, or even the second-best program in the state.  Hell, we might not even be the third-best program in the state.  What we truly are is a soft, entitled program mocked by much of the country, led by two of the biggest egos in the entire state that refuse to realize what they have done.      

For those of you who will try to rebut where Brown and Dodds have led us, and argue that no changes should be made, the only argument you can really bring sounds something like this: "they got us here, they've earned the right to stay, and they do things the right way."  In truth though, the only "right way" is to win.  The reality is that everything comes second to winning.  It's the reason why Bobby Petrino will be coaching at a major program in a year or two, and it's the reason Johnny Manziel's antics are forgotten and why he is the starter at Texas A&M.  The good guys at Texas who used to win are no longer winning the way they used to, and it's a fact that cannot be denied.  If you think Texas, one of the biggest and most powerful universities in the country, can't find someone better, or you are afraid to risk further failure that may come with a change in the status quo, then you too have resigned yourself to mediocrity, because there will be no major improvements made under this regime.  Don't let yourself fall into the same trap that Brown and Dodds are ensnared in.  All you have to do is open your eyes...    

   

2013 Texas Longhorns Preview By The Numbers: Part 1

Can The Horns Win It All? A Look At The Numbers That Matter

Mack Brown's unit is receiving a lot of hype ahead of this upcoming season, despite an underwhelming 9-4 season last year.  Recently, Phil Steele went so far as to tab the Longhorns as the fourth best team in the country in his preseason rankings.  Others remain skeptical though, and with good reason when you consider how this team has played over the last three seasons.  The variance in opinions on this team got me interested in trying to decipher what it takes to win a national championship, and then using that information to see whether Texas is a true contender for the 2013 BCS Championship.  Rather than just look at the schedule and the depth chart, I decided to look at what doesn't lie: NUMBERS. 

Over the years of analyzing statistics for sports wagering purposes, I've learned that the Yards Per Play (YPP) statistic is one of the most useful tools available for truly gauging a team's performance on both sides of the ball.  YPP is much better to use than the Yards Per Game (YPG) statistic, because it shows which offenses and defenses are more efficient, and thus better overall.  This is especially true in college football, as teams that run up-tempo offenses are going to run more plays, and inevitably gain more yards.  After sifting through the numbers of recent seasons, the recipe for winning a title is quite apparent. Included below are statistics for every BCS National Champion since the 2004-2005 season.

      2004 USC Trojans: 6.2 Yards For, 4.1 Against, +2.1 Differential

      2005 Texas Longhorns: 7.0 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +2.8 Differential

      2006 Florida Gators: 5.9 Yards For, 4.3 Against, +1.6 Differential

      2007: LSU Tigers: 5.7 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +1.5 Differential

      2008 Florida Gators: 6.7 Yards For, 4.4 Against, +2.3 Differential

      2009 Alabama Crimson Tide: 5.8 Yards For, 4.1 Against, +1.7 Differential

      2010 Auburn Tigers: 7.0 Yards For, 5.2 Against, +1.8 Differential

      2011 Alabama Crimson Tide: 6.4 Yards For, 3.0 Against, +3.4 Differential

      2012 Alabama Crimson Tide: 6.6 Yards For, 4.0 Against, +2.6 Differential

      Averages: 6.4 Yards For, 4.2 Against, 2.2 Differential

When you look at the numbers on the whole, two major things stick out for determining what wins championships.  First, every champion has had a YPP Differential of at least 1.5.  Second, every champion except the 2010 Auburn Tigers gave up a maximum of 4.4 YPP on defense.  The 2011 Alabama Defense, which some consider as the best of all time, should be considered an outlier at the opposite end of the spectrum.  Thus, the trophy-winning recipe is fairly simple in terms of YPP: a differential of 1.5, and a defense is in the low 4's in terms of YPP.  

Now that we've figured out what champions are made of, it's time use that information and apply it to this year's version of the Texas Longhorns.  In order to get a historical sense of how Texas has done in terms of YPP, I've included those statistics for every year since the 2004-2005 season.  

      2004 Texas: 6.2 Yards For, 4.7 Against, +1.5 Differential

      2005 Texas: 7.0 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +2.8 Differential

      2006 Texas: 5.8 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +0.8 Differential

      2007 Texas: 6.0 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +1.0 Differential

      2008 Texas: 6.4 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +1.4 Differential

      2009 Texas: 5.4 Yards For, 3.7 Against, +1.7 Differential

      2010 Texas: 5.2 Yards For, 4.6 Against, +0.6 Differential

      2011 Texas: 5.2 Yards For, 4.5 Against, +0.7 Differential

      2012 Texas: 6.2 Yards For, 5.7 Against, +0.5 Differential

      Averages: 5.9 Yards For, 4.7 Against, +1.2 Differential   

When you look at Texas' numbers over the years, you realize that they fit the mold of our championship recipe.  The years in which Texas was in contention for (2004, 2008), or played for the National Championship (2005, 2009), their differential was right around 1.5 or better.  Notably, the two teams that were in contention for the title but did not make it (2004, 2008) both had defensive YPP's higher than the 4.5 threshold.

Looking ahead though, it becomes quite obvious what Texas needs to do to be in contention to lift the crystal ball next year: keep the offense trucking along and IMPROVE THE DEFENSE.  Yes, the offense struggled at times last year, but the 6.2 YPP is going to win you a ton of games.  Hell, it was 0.8 YPP better than the 2009 team that played for the BCS National Championship and had Colt McCoy running the show! With nine starters returning on offense, an experienced offensive line, and one of the best backfields in the country, you have to figure that the offensive production won't decrease. 

Thus, from a numerical standpoint, Texas' chances at playing in Pasadena hinge solely on the defense improving upon their horrible 2012 season.  The Longhorns finished 72nd in Defensive YPP last year, in what turned out to be the worst defensive performance in the history of the program.  It was so bad, that it was a minimum of 0.7 YPP worse than any other Texas team since Vince Young was under center.  Odds are that the defense can't get any worse than last season,  so what kind of numbers do we need to see to have Texas make a run? If the Offensive YPP stays roughly the same at 6.2, a Defensive YPP of 4.7 would give us a +1.5 Differential, the threshold for every BCS National Champion since 2003-2004.  Last year's defense was on the field for roughly 71 plays per game, and if you carry that number over to this season, Texas will need to only give up 333.7 YPG to achieve a 4.7 YPP.

That should definitely be manageable from both a historical, and current standpoint.  From the Texas statistics listed above, the Longhorns surrendered less than 333.7 YPG in six of the nine seasons I included.  Additionally, in Manny Diaz's first season, the Horns only gave up 306.1 YPG.  Though his defense struggled mightily last year after Jordan Hicks went down with an injury (Texas gave up over 570 YPG in three of the four games immediately following Hicks' injury) , Diaz has proven in the past that he can put up staunch defensive numbers. With nine starters returning, lots of turnover at the quarterback position in the Big XII, and only two difficult road games, all signs are pointing toward a turnaround for the Texas defensive unit.

Final Verdict:  From my analysis, I'm fairly confident in predicting that Texas will contend for the BCS National Championship this season.  The offense shouldn't see their YPP decrease, and the 4.7 Defensive YPP is more than manageable when you look at the schedule, and the number of players returning from last year.  Adding to my belief that a 4.7 Defensive YPP is manageable is the fact that if you exclude the four games immediately following Hicks' injury last season, the Defensive YPP for Texas was 4.64.  If the Defensive YPP falls to the low 4's, then there is no reason this team should not be playing for it all in Pasadena come January.  Based on what the numbers tell me, the 33/1 that Vegas is currently offering on Texas to win the BCS National Championship seems like an extremely tempting play.

Be on the lookout for the second half of this 2013 Texas Longhorn Preview By The Numbers, where I'll analyze the spreads already offered by Vegas for each Texas game.  Hope you enjoyed the read, and let me know what you think in the comments area below.