2013 FIFA Confederations Cup Preview and Predictions

Brazil Looks To Regain Form, Spain Tries To Keep The Throne

The 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup is finally upon us, with host nation Brazil ready to show the world that everything is good to go for the summer of 2014.  Though this competition is mainly used as a rehearsal for host countries to prepare for the much larger and more prominent World Cup, it also provides the tournament participants to gain some invaluable experience against quality opposition.  This year is no different, as the likes of Brazil, Spain, Italy, Mexico, and Uruguay are all vying for the trophy.  Also competing are Japan, Nigeria, and Tahiti, with each hoping to pull their best United States impression and make a surprise appearance in the final.  While the 2009 final between Brazil and the United States was a memorable one, no one can argue that the world wants to see the host nation meet Spain in this year's final.  The talent on the field for that match would be absolutely insane, and the current soccer kings would be taking on the team they took the crown from.  A lot of matches must be played before that can happen, so let's begin our preview by analyzing the teams in each group.

Group A

Brazil

Odds To Win Group: 8/13

Odds To Win Tournament: 3/2

Matches: 6/15 vs. Japan @ 3:00 PM EST; 6/19 vs. Mexico @ 3:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Italy @ 3:00 PM

The pressure is on for coach Luiz Felipe Scolari and the Selecao to get their act together after a string of uninspiring performances.  Since taking over command of the squad in late November of 2012, Scolari's squad has only managed one win in their preparations for 2014, a 4-0 thrashing of lowly Bolivia.  Other than that, Brazil has drawn four times and lost a game to England.  Perhaps this lack of wins is a result of less pressure being on the players, as the team is automatically qualified for the 2014 World Cup as the host nation and does not have to go through the rigors of CONEMBOL qualifying.  While that specific pressure to qualify is not present, the pressure to impress the fans at home will always be present, regardless of who is playing or coaching.  Soccer is life in Brazil, and merely making it to the final would not be enough to satisfy Brazilians considering the tournament is being played on their home turf.  

Though the pressure of an entire nation is on their shoulders, there is plenty of talent to spread it around to.  Scolari's team for the tournament includes world-class talents in Dani Alves, David Luiz, Oscar, and Fred to name just a few.  Even with such a stacked squad, all eyes will be on Neymar, the wonderkid who just signed a five-year deal with Barcelona.  Because he resisted the temptation to ply his trade in Europe for so long, much of the world has only seen him play as a member of the national team.  That will all change this summer, as Neymar's every move will be watched by the world from here on out.  While I do have some reservations about how he will handle the pressure with his new club, I think the comfort of playing in his home country will allow Neymar to have a great tournament.

Despite the immense talent on the roster, some fans of the game may think that Brazil's most recent results show that the team is more vulnerable than ever before.  While the lack of wins may carry some weight, history carries more in my opinion.  The fact is that Brazil has never finished worse than second in a major tournament it has hosted (World Cups and Copa Americas).  If you want to go one step further, the Selecao has never finished worse than third in any World Cup played on South American soil.  This team has always thrived when playing in front of its home fans, and this tournament should be no different.  

Group Prediction: 1st

  

Mexico

Odds To Win Group: 6/1

Odds To Win Tournament: 9/1

Matches: 6/16 vs. Italy @ 3:00 PM EST; 6/19 vs. Brazil @ 3:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Japan @ 3:00 PM

Like Brazil, El Tri has struggled mightily in 2013,and just got their first win of the year in a qualifier at Jamaica.  Mexico has had such a tough go of it lately that they haven't even scored in qualifiers at Estadio Azteca, their home fortress.  The win in Kingston might be just what Mexico needed though, and victories in their upcoming games against Panama and Costa Rica could give Mexico much-needed momentum heading into the Confederations Cup.

Mexico has been on a tear in recent international tournaments, and coach Jose Manuel de Torre needs El Tri  to continue that in Brazil to keep his job secure.  A look back at their recent tournament performances reveals that Mexico may be in the middle of their "Golden Age" of soccer.  They won the 2011 Gold Cup to qualify for this tournament, finished first in the 2011 U-17 World Cup and third in the 2011 U-20 World Cup, and capped it off by winning gold in London at the 2012 Olympics.  Yet more draws or losses in qualifying, and a bad showing in Brazil could mean the end for El Tri's current manager.  The talent is there for Mexico to get out of its group though, and the team's form and chemistry should only get better as June wears on with how many games and practice sessions they are getting in.  El Tri's strength is in its width, and will want to get the ball outside to Andres Guardado and Pablo Barrera to start their attacks.  When it comes to finishing, Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez is lethal any time he gets his foot on a ball in the box, and is a nightmare for defenders due to how well he moves off the ball.  Simply put, the man has a sixth sense for being in the right spot at the right time, and makes the most of the opportunities that come his way. After all, he did score 10 goals in 22 appearances for Manchester United this year.  Mexico does need its central defenders to be at its best though against Italy and Brazil, and needs Aldo de Nigris to score a few goals to take some of the load off Chicharito's back.  It would be even better for El Tri if Giovani dos Santos could get back into the starting eleven now that Mexico's dispute with his club team has ended.

The tournament schedule sets up well for Mexico, despite them being in the tougher of the two groups.  They open with their two toughest games against Italy and Brazil, before playing their final group game against Japan.  Brazil at home is daunting, so Mexico's best chances at points will be in its first and third games.  It's well documented that Italy is a slow-starter in international tournaments, and they haven't won their opening game in a Euro Cup or World Cup since 2006.  The Asian champions won't be sacrificial lambs by any means, but any team would much rather face them than Brazil for a trip to the semifinals.  This setup is extremely similar to that of the 2009 version of the Confederations Cup, where the United States defeated Egypt 3-0 and Italy lost Brazil by an identical margin to send Sam's Army into the semis.  El Tri's recent form is concerning, but you can't ignore how this team plays in a tournament format.  In addition to the tournament successes in the last few years, Mexico has advanced out of its group in every World Cup that it has qualified for since 1980.  This team knows how to get out of its group, and a favorable schedule has me backing them to advance to the semifinals.

Group Prediction: 2nd      

  

Italy

Odds To Win Group: 5/2

Odds To Win Tournament: 13/2

Matches: 6/16 vs. Mexico @ 3:00 PM EST; 6/19 vs. Japan @ 6:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Brazil @ 3:00 PM

Italy is coming off an impressive showing in the 2012 Euro Cup, finishing as runner-up to the number one team in the world, Spain.  The team didn't lose a game until the final, and the mercurial Mario Balotelli wowed spectators around the world with his attacking prowess.  Since then, the Italians have climbed to the top of their World Cup qualifying group with four wins and one draw.  Throw in two friendly draws against Brazil and the Netherlands, and you have a team who hasn't lost a game against quality opposition since late 2012.

Coach Cesare Prandelli is relying on many of the same players who took Italy to the brink of glory last summer.  Familiar names like Montolivo, Chielleni, De Rossi, and Marchisio will all be making appearances in Brazil.  Once again though, Italy will depend heavily on team captain Gianluigi Buffon, Andrea Pirlo, and Mario Balotelli.  Buffon has been Italy's goalkeeper since the 2002 World Cup qualifiers, and is one of the best shot-stoppers of our generation.  Then you have Pirlo, who is an absolute joy to watch.  He is by no means flashy, and is nowhere near being the best athlete on the field.  The man has a feel for the game that is unparalleled though, and pulls the strings for Italy in a manner that most central midfielders could only dream of.  He dictates the pace of the game and orchestrates Italy's attack so well by creating for others that you barely notice the class he is exhibiting.  One last thing that must be said about Pirlo is the threat he poses from set pieces.  If he hits a spot kick the way he wants to, odds are that the keeper isn't getting to it.  Enjoy watching Andrea Pirlo while you can, as the 2014 World Cup will most likely be the last time he plays for the Azzurri, and he could retire from soccer altogether.  Finally, you have the imposing Mario Balotelli.  When he wants to be the best player on the pitch, he often is.  Other times, you can get a lackadaisical, uninspired performance.  You might even see him sent off the pitch, like in his most recent game against the Czech Republic.  He could single-handedly fire Italy to the finals, or be part of the reason his team doesn't get out of their group.  You never know what you will get from Balotelli, and that is part of the fun of watching him.

Considering that all the key parts from the 2012 Euro Cup run are back for this tournament, you think they would be a lock to get out of their group.  Yet Italy is a different team when they leave their continent.  They have never won a World Cup when leaving the continent, and have struggled mightily in recent tournaments not played in Europe.  They played very poorly in the 2002 World Cup, and failed to get out of their group in both tournaments played in South Africa.  Italy only managed two wins in all three competitions combined, and lost two games per tournament.  The pressure to perform may also be lacking, given how well they performed last summer.  Don't be surprised if we see a repeat of the 2009 Confederations Cup, where Italy loses to Brazil in their final group game and is eliminated on tie-breaker. 

Group Prediction: Third

Japan

Odds To Win Group: 10/1

Odds To Win Tournament: 33/1

Matches: 6/15 vs. Brazil @ 3:00 PM EST, 6/19 vs. Italy @ 6:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Mexico @ 3:00 PM

Japan recently became the first team to qualify (not including host-nation Brazil) for the 2014 World Cup after tying Australia at home.  No longer having to worry about qualification, Japan is free to focus solely on getting out of their Confederations Cup group.  Opening up the tournament against Brazil is an unenviable task, especially when you consider that Brazil thrashed Japan 4-0 when they last met in late 2012.  Japan has pulled an upset on the road recently though, as they beat France in Saint-Denis just a few days before losing to Brazil.  They will be an underdog in every game they play in the tournament, so getting out of the group alone would be a huge success.  

The Samurai Blue are led into Brazil by coach Alberto Zaccheroni, having qualified for this summer's tournament by winning the 2011 AFC Asian Cup.  Zaccheroni's squad is comprised mostly of players who play their club ball in Europe, but there also some talents from the J-League.  Four players stand out though after examining the 23-man roster which was released earlier this week.  First you have Keisuke Honda, the central attacking midfielder for CSKA Moscow who Arsene Wenger named as the best player of the 2010 World Cup.  Then you have Shinji Kagawa, the Manchester United man who will pair in the attack with Honda.  Behind those two is Gamba Osaka's Yasuhito Endo, a central midfielder who is the most capped player in Japan's history.  Finally, Inter defender Yuto Nagatomo is a rock in Japan's back four, and is great in the overlap game.  If Japan wants to pull some upsets and earn a place in the semifinals, it's going to need these four players to all have fantastic tournaments.  

When I look at the schedule, I chalk up the opening match against Brazil as a loss, especially when you take into account what happened the last time the two teams played.  That leaves Japan needing to get probably at least four points in their last two games against Italy and Mexico to have a chance at advancing.  Italy has more talent on paper, but Zaccheroni should have Japan in the right positions tactically, given his Italian background.  Mexico is certainly beatable, but Japan will have to play very well to take down an extremely motivated El Tri in the final group game.  Advancing out of the group isn't outside of the realm of possibilities, but the odds are just stacked against Japan to accomplish that task this summer. 

Group Prediction: 4th

Group B

Spain

Odds To Win Group: 4/9

Odds To Win Tournament: 13/8

Matches: 6/16 vs. Uruguay @ 6:00 PM EST, 6/20 vs. Tahiti @ 3:00 PM, 6/23 vs. Nigeria @ 3:00 PM

The best team in the world is looking to cement its legacy as the greatest of all time over these next two summers, with visions of winning both the Confederations Cup and the World Cup.   While we all know which is the more important title, Spain will be looking to atone for their shocking 2-0 defeat to the United States in the 2009 Confederations Cup semifinal.  Their record in recent international competitions says it all: 2008 Euro Cup champions, 2010 World Cup Champions, 2012 Euro Cup Champions.  Spain has not only enjoyed a golden generation of players, but those players have capitalized on the opportunities presented to them on the biggest stages.  If Spain and its same core group of players can do the unthinkable and win the 2014 World Cup, this team will go down as the best international squad to have ever played the game.  

Coach Vicente Del Bosque has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal when selecting a starting eleven.  Other international managers would be begging to have half, or even a quarter of the players that Spain brings to this tournament.  The squad is so deep and talented that even Vinny Del Negro could probably coach this team to Confederations Cup glory.   Xavi and Iniesta are the twin engines that make La Furia Roja run, but they are surrounded  by an abundance of talent.  Up top, David Villa, David Silva, Cesc Fabregas, and Fernando Torres all provide serious firepower for the Spanish attack.  Complimenting Xavi and Iniesta in the midfield are players like Javi Martinez, Sergio Busquets, and Santi Cazorla.  Behind them you have experienced defenders like Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique showing the ropes to up-and-coming talents like Jordi Alba and Cesar Azpilicueta. To round out the squad, you have Spain's captain and most capped player of all time, Iker "The Saint" Casillas, one of the best goalkeepers in the world.  I could go on and on about how incredible this team is, but I will leave that to the authors of the future books that will be written about this group of players.

While this squad is the most talented team in the tournament, there are some things working against it.  First, the squad's most important players, Xavi and Iniesta, are getting up there in age and have played an insane amount of games for Barcelona and Spain since the 2008 Euro Cup.  These are two of the finest midfielders in the game, but to say their legs are not wary is probably a foolish statement.  In addition, Spain's players are so talented that the vast majority, if not all, are integral to their club teams and have logged a lot of minutes over the past season.  Other than that, Spain's luck is bound to run out at some point.  Talent will always play the most important role in determining the outcome of a tournament, but a bit of luck is also needed to claim a trophy.  With how many tournaments Spain has won in the recent years, this could be the year that Spain gets unlucky in a final and goes home as a runner-up.  The group stage will be very easy to navigate though, and Spain should easily advance to the semifinals.

Group Prediction: 1st

Uruguay
Odds To Win Group: 5/2
Odds To Win Tournament: 8/1
Matches: 6/16 vs. Spain @ 6:00 PM EST, 6/20 vs. Nigeria @ 6:00 PM, 6/23 vs. Tahiti @ 3:00 PM

La Celeste has struggled in World Cup qualifying, and their entire focus is on their upcoming qualifier against Venezuela.  A friendly victory over France earlier this week should give the squad some momentum though, and a win over Venezuela could have the Uruguayan team hitting on all cylinders going into their first Confederations Cup game against Spain.  Uruguay qualified for the Confederations Cup by winning the 2011 Copa America held in Argentina, and before that went on a magical run to the semifinals of the 2010 World Cup.

To recreate the successes of the last two tournaments, coach Oscar Tabarez is going to need Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez to carry the load once again when it comes to finding the back of the net.  The two combined to score 8 of Uruguay's 11 goals in the 2010 World Cup, with Forlan winning the Golden Ball award given to the best player of the tournament.  A year later in Argentina, they scored 6 of the team's 9 goals to bring the Copa America trophy back to Uruguay.  Forlan isn't getting any younger though, and this could be his last international tournament for La Celeste if they fail to turn it around in qualifying.  Suarez had a great season for Liverpool, but will be chomping at the bit (sorry, I couldn't help myself) to make up for his Mike Tyson impression at the end of the season.  The player who needs to step up though is Napoli striker Edinson Cavani, who has scored an abundance of goals for his club team, but has failed to replicate that success for the national team in international tournaments.  He only managed one goal in the 2010 World Cup, and could not find the back of the net in Argentina a year later.  Cavani scored 29 goals in 34 Serie A games this season, and with Forlan and Suarez getting most of the public's attention, he may be a wise play to make on "First Goalscorer" bets.

Assuming every team in this group beats Tahiti, and that Spain goes undefeated in group play, Uruguay vs. Nigeria could turn out to be an elimination game, with the winner headed to the semifinals.  A draw in that match wouldn't be the end of the world though, as Uruguay would know how many goals it would need to score against Tahiti to advance on goal differential.  What could essentially guarantee advancement for Uruguay would be a draw against Spain in the opening match.  Spain hasn't managed more than a draw in its last two tournament openers, which should bode well for Uruguay on their home continent.  While Uruguay may be capable of getting a point against Spain, I can't see Nigeria getting any points in their last match because Spain will be clicking at that point in the tournament with two matches under their belt.  The odds are in Uruguay's favor to advance, though it could be very close if they don't take care of business against Nigeria.

Group Prediction: 2nd  

Nigeria
Odds To Win Group: 11/2
Odds To Win Tournament: 20/1
Matches: 6/17 vs. Tahiti @ 3:00 PM EST, 6/20 vs. Uruguay @ 6:00 PM, 6/23 vs. Spain @ 3:00 PM

The Super Eagles qualified for the Confederations Cup by winning the African Cup of Nations in February.  Key to the triumph was a quarterfinal upset-win over Ivory Coast, which spurred the team on to lift their continent's cup for the first time since 1994.  Nigeria was not a favorite to win their continental tournament, and given their success there, they won't be intimidated as an underdog in Brazil.  The team has not lost in 2013, though most of the teams they played don't compare to their fellow Group B competitors, Spain and Uruguay.

Leading coach Stephen Keshi's Super Eagles into the tournament is Chelsea midfielder John Mikel Obi.  He'll pull the strings for Nigeria much more than he does at Chelsea, and will be the creative presence in the midfield for his country.  Two of Nigeria's most lethal attacking options, Emmanuel Emenike and and Victor Moses, will miss the tournament due to injuries.  With this duo not making the trip to Brazil, Keshi will have to rely on Ideye Brown and others to pick up the slack.  Overall, Keshi has made some very questionable managerial decisions regarding his Confederations Cup roster.  Not included in the squad are experienced forwards Obafemi Martins and Peter Odemwingie, who have combined to score 27 goals in their 94 caps for Nigeria.  Keshi has gone the same route he did with his African Cup of Nations roster, where he selected less-experienced players from Nigeria's professional league.  Though he was ruthlessly criticized by the media and Nigerian officials, Keshi was able to silence his critics by bringing home the title.  It just remains to be seen whether these decisions will provide the same magic against much stronger international competition.

If Nigeria wants to have any chance of getting out of their group, two things have to happen.  First, they must obliterate Tahiti in their opening game.  Goal differential could easily come into play as a tiebreaker, and with Uruguay playing Tahiti on the last day of group play, they will know exactly how many goals they need to score should this tie-breaker scenario come into play.  Second, Nigeria must get at least a draw against Uruguay.  If they don't take a point or more away from that game, they might as well pack their bags.

Group Predicition: 3rd


Tahiti
Odds To Win Group: 1000/1
Odds To Win Tournament: 5000/1
Matches: 6/17 vs. Nigeria @ 3:00 PM EST, 6/20 vs. Spain @ 3:00 PM, 6/23 vs. Uruguay @ 3:00 PM

I'm not going to waste your time with this one.  You only need to look at the odds above to see how big of an underdog Tahiti is in this tournament.  This is the Little Giants vs. Urbania Cowboys, except there is zero possibility of a happy ending here.  Their surprise run in the 2012 OFC Nations Cup secured their entry into this tournament, but this will be Tahiti's only trip to Brazil, as they have failed to qualify for next summer's World Cup.  They will be vastly outmatched against every team in their group, and securing a single point would be an incredible feat.  Based off their most recent result though, a 7-0 loss to Chile's U-20 team, Tahiti will do their best to limit the amount of goals they concede and look respectable in front of a global audience.  Be prepared to see some ridiculous lines on every game this team plays.

Group Prediction: 4th


Semis and Final  
Based off my group predictions, our semifinals would be Spain vs. Mexico and Brazil vs. Uruguay.  In the past, underdogs have surprisingly made the finals of this tournament quite often, as Cameroon, Japan, and the United States have all achieved the feat.  I'm going to go chalk this year though, and predict that the people get what they want from this year's Confederations Cup final: Brazil vs. Spain.  Should it happen, we can only hope that the match lives up to our expectations.  Brazil has won this tournament three times previously, and I think they make it a fourth here, with Spain getting unlucky in the final.

Hope you enjoyed the article, and I'll be providing my take on individual games and how to play them once the tournament begins.