NBA Finals Games 6 & 7 Preview

Something Has To Give

The 2013 NBA Finals thus far has played out like Rocky and Apollo in the 15th round of Rocky II.  One team throws a giant haymaker, only to have it countered by an equally powerful punch the next game.  Neither side has yielded to the other, and we stand in the exact same position we were in back in 2011: a Texas team heading back to Miami with a 3-2 advantage over the Heat.  This series has been far more intriguing to me than the 2011 NBA Finals though, and when you look at the history and story-lines going into these last two games, you realize that something major is going to have to give for one of these teams to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

The Bounce-Back Theory:  If you've been watching at home, you know that no team has won back-to-back games in this series.  When you dig a bit deeper into these teams' records from this season, it becomes obvious why neither team has won two in a row.  First, the Miami Heat are 12-0 after a loss, dating back to January.  Not only that, but the Heat have covered the spread every time in that 12-0 stretch.  Whenever this Miami team loses, it comes back big the next night.  Then you take a look at the San Antonio Spurs season, and you see that they are 19-1 in games following a loss when Tim Duncan plays.  The Spurs will have to win consecutive games, including a near-impossible situation in Game 6, to avoid a Game 7.  On the other hand, the Heat will have to win consecutive games at home against a team who doesn't lose consecutive games.  Something has to give.

Closeout & Must-Win Games:  The Spurs can end the Heat's season on Tuesday night in a scenario that they do well in.  San Antonio has been fantastic in series-clinching games this season, as they are undefeated in closeout games.  For an even bigger and more historical perspective, the Spurs have only lost one closeout game in their five NBA Finals appearances, although that could change Tuesday.  On the other side of the aisle, the Heat have not lost a "win or go home" game since their Game 6 loss to Dirk & Co. in the 2011 Finals.  In must-win games since then, LeBron has come up huge for the Heat, scoring more than thirty points in every contest.  So what is it going to be? Will Tim Duncan and the Spurs, the team who has never lost an NBA Finals series, beat the Heat once in two games that LeBron thrives in?  Or will the Heat's streak in must-win games succumb to the Spurs incredible record in closeout games? Something has to give. 

Danny Green & The Spurs 3-Point Shooting vs. Miami Defense at Home:

Green has been hotter from behind the arc than Kate Upton in a swimsuit pictorial.  Not only has he set the record for most three-point shots made in an NBA Finals, but he's made an insane 65.7% of his attempts from deep.  No one saw this type of performance coming, as the potential NBA Finals MVP was at 80/1 to win the award before the series started.  He hasn't been alone though, as the Spurs have shot 50% or better from behind the arc in three of the five games this series. The three-point shot has been instrumental in getting the Spurs their 3-2 advantage, but there is reason to believe that their hot shooting from deep could end in Games 6 and 7.  Miami's defense was absolutely terrible in the three games in San Antonio, but they are a much better defensive unit at home.  On the road this series, the Heat gave up 106.6 points per game.  Yet at home, Miami has only given up 88 points per game.  More importantly though, they have been much better at defending the three-point shot on their home court, limiting the Spurs to a clip of 39.5%.  Contrast that with the games in San Antonio, where the Spurs shot 55.9% from behind the line, and it's evident how much better Miami is defensively when they are on their home court, especially at defending the three.  This match-up could very well be the one that decides how this series winds up.  Something has to give. 

Given all these statistics, match-ups, and situations that are in play, we should be in for an epic conclusion to this NBA Finals.  Hope you enjoyed this blog post, and let me know how you think this series will end.

Bonus Nugget:  In case you were wondering just how tight this series is, Vegas has this series as a dead-heat right now, even though the Spurs hold a 3-2 advantage.  Current lines from bookmakers indicate Vegas sees Miami as the slight favorite, with a 53% chance to win the series.