NBA Finals Games 6 & 7 Preview

Something Has To Give

The 2013 NBA Finals thus far has played out like Rocky and Apollo in the 15th round of Rocky II.  One team throws a giant haymaker, only to have it countered by an equally powerful punch the next game.  Neither side has yielded to the other, and we stand in the exact same position we were in back in 2011: a Texas team heading back to Miami with a 3-2 advantage over the Heat.  This series has been far more intriguing to me than the 2011 NBA Finals though, and when you look at the history and story-lines going into these last two games, you realize that something major is going to have to give for one of these teams to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

The Bounce-Back Theory:  If you've been watching at home, you know that no team has won back-to-back games in this series.  When you dig a bit deeper into these teams' records from this season, it becomes obvious why neither team has won two in a row.  First, the Miami Heat are 12-0 after a loss, dating back to January.  Not only that, but the Heat have covered the spread every time in that 12-0 stretch.  Whenever this Miami team loses, it comes back big the next night.  Then you take a look at the San Antonio Spurs season, and you see that they are 19-1 in games following a loss when Tim Duncan plays.  The Spurs will have to win consecutive games, including a near-impossible situation in Game 6, to avoid a Game 7.  On the other hand, the Heat will have to win consecutive games at home against a team who doesn't lose consecutive games.  Something has to give.

Closeout & Must-Win Games:  The Spurs can end the Heat's season on Tuesday night in a scenario that they do well in.  San Antonio has been fantastic in series-clinching games this season, as they are undefeated in closeout games.  For an even bigger and more historical perspective, the Spurs have only lost one closeout game in their five NBA Finals appearances, although that could change Tuesday.  On the other side of the aisle, the Heat have not lost a "win or go home" game since their Game 6 loss to Dirk & Co. in the 2011 Finals.  In must-win games since then, LeBron has come up huge for the Heat, scoring more than thirty points in every contest.  So what is it going to be? Will Tim Duncan and the Spurs, the team who has never lost an NBA Finals series, beat the Heat once in two games that LeBron thrives in?  Or will the Heat's streak in must-win games succumb to the Spurs incredible record in closeout games? Something has to give. 

Danny Green & The Spurs 3-Point Shooting vs. Miami Defense at Home:

Green has been hotter from behind the arc than Kate Upton in a swimsuit pictorial.  Not only has he set the record for most three-point shots made in an NBA Finals, but he's made an insane 65.7% of his attempts from deep.  No one saw this type of performance coming, as the potential NBA Finals MVP was at 80/1 to win the award before the series started.  He hasn't been alone though, as the Spurs have shot 50% or better from behind the arc in three of the five games this series. The three-point shot has been instrumental in getting the Spurs their 3-2 advantage, but there is reason to believe that their hot shooting from deep could end in Games 6 and 7.  Miami's defense was absolutely terrible in the three games in San Antonio, but they are a much better defensive unit at home.  On the road this series, the Heat gave up 106.6 points per game.  Yet at home, Miami has only given up 88 points per game.  More importantly though, they have been much better at defending the three-point shot on their home court, limiting the Spurs to a clip of 39.5%.  Contrast that with the games in San Antonio, where the Spurs shot 55.9% from behind the line, and it's evident how much better Miami is defensively when they are on their home court, especially at defending the three.  This match-up could very well be the one that decides how this series winds up.  Something has to give. 

Given all these statistics, match-ups, and situations that are in play, we should be in for an epic conclusion to this NBA Finals.  Hope you enjoyed this blog post, and let me know how you think this series will end.

Bonus Nugget:  In case you were wondering just how tight this series is, Vegas has this series as a dead-heat right now, even though the Spurs hold a 3-2 advantage.  Current lines from bookmakers indicate Vegas sees Miami as the slight favorite, with a 53% chance to win the series. 

Eastern Conference Finals Game 1 Recap

The King Has Spoken

With only 2.2 seconds left on the clock, and the Miami Heat facing another Game 1 loss at home, only one thing could happen.  The Pacers knew what was coming, the fans in the building knew what was coming, and every coach on the couch at home knew what was coming...And the Pacers still couldn't stop it.  LeBron got to the rim and proved once again why he is the best player in the league by a mile.  That being said, this was one hell of a game providing so much material to digest that it might as well have been the NBA equivalent of a lunch at Fogo de Chao: slow at the beginning, with a giant main course, and then going for seconds and thirds because it's just too good to pass up even though you're about to fall asleep at the table.  Consider this my attempt at covering it all before the coma hits.

The King Won't Stop Until He's Crowned Again

LeBron James has been a man on a mission ever since the 2011 Finals loss to the Dallas Mavericks.  Since then, the man has been on an absolute tear, despite playing basketball essentially non-stop since the beginning of the 2011-2012 season.  Think about it for a second.  He played in the lockout season, won the NBA finals, then went into training for the Olympics, brought home the gold in August, prepared for the 2012-2013 season, and then went on to dominate the regular season in a performance that included a 27 game win streak and another MVP award.  When you consider it altogether, this quite possibly could be the greatest two year stretch of basketball anyone has had in the history of the game.  To do what he is doing at such a high level considering the amount of games played is flat out astounding.  Tonight proved that even though he's played a ridiculous amount of basketball over the past two years, he isn't stopping until he's got another ring on his finger. 

Miami's Sluggish First Halves Continue

I don't know what it is, but Miami has had a bad habit of starting off games slowly in the playoffs this year.  For a team that has only had one playoff loss so far, they've only had two double-digit leads at halftime, as every other game has been very close early on.  Though they were able to get away with that in their first two series, it's not going to bode well in the future against the Pacers or either team in the Western Conference Finals.  Close games early on only mean more minutes for Miami's starters, which isn't good for Dwayne Wade's ailing knee.  Maybe the trainer is putting something in the Gatorade at halftime, or Battier and Spolestra are channeling Jimmy V in their half time speeches.  All we can be certain of is that this is a different ball club when they come out of the tunnel for the second half.

The Birdman Is Flapping

Serious kudos need to be given to Chris Andersen for how he has played throughout the playoffs, and especially tonight.  Although he was -3 in the +/- category, he provided an undeniable spark and contribution off the bench in his 18 minutes of playing time.  7-7 from the field, 2-2 from the line.  You read that correctly, Birdman was perfect from the field tonight.  As someone who couldn't stand him when he was with the Nuggets, he's become pretty fun to watch during his stint in Miami. 

Paul George Played An Exceptional Game, But Won't Be Remembered For It

George was huge for the Pacers tonight, and had ice in his veins when the game was on the line.  First was the shot from way deep to force overtime, and then came the three clutch freebies to give the Pacers the lead  in overtime.  Yet all George will be remembered for is overplaying James on the final play. allowing the King and Miami to get the "W" in Game 1.  It will be very interesting to see how George comes back from that in Game 2. 

Hey Vogel...That Guy Hibbert...He Can Play Some Defense

Yes, the real culprit for giving up a layup at the buzzer is Paul George for overplaying James.  If George doesn't overplay and forces LeBron into an outside shot, we may not be having this discussion.  However, if Hibbert is in there, the play may not have gone down the same way.  You have to think that Vogel could have drawn up some defense that allowed Hibbert to stay close to the paint.  With Hibbert in the game and anywhere near the paint, the odds of LeBron getting such an easy bucket are not as good, and you're increasing the odds of Miami taking a jumper.  Either way, tonight's ending will certainly effect Vogel's decision making down the road in this series if the Pacers find themselves in a close one at the end of the game.  

David West Was Huge For The Pacers

Aside from his performance at the foul line, West had himself quite a game.  11-17 from the field, 26 points, and 4 offensive rebounds.  If he can put up these numbers every night, Indiana will have a fighting chance to win this series. 

Norris Cole And David West's Family Jewels

This is all that really needs to be said.

What To Expect In Game 2

A lesser team would probably fold to the Heat in Game 2 after a loss like tonight.  The Pacers are a very tough unit though, and Miami has a bad habit of starting off slow in the first half.  If the Pacers can win the battle on the boards again, and get some quality production from Hill and Stephenson, they will have a great shot at stealing a game in Miami.  Expect to see another close game on Friday night, with the Heat pulling away late in the fourth quarter and heading to Indianapolis with a 2-0 lead.