The Four To Score: Week 13

Few Weeks Remain, But Opportunities Are Everywhere

There are only three full Saturdays of college football left before Bowl Season begins, as we get closer each week to determining which teams will be playing for it all in Pasadena.  Despite the dwindling time left in this season, you don't have to look hard to find big games and soft lines to take advantage of.  We went a respectable 3-2 last week, getting very unlucky in the Texas Tech game, but were also extremely fortunate that Georgia defenders had not been taught to bat a ball down on Hail Mary.  I'm not even going to speak of what happened in Austin last week, so lets just get into this week's contests.

First Down: LSU -4.5 vs. Texas A&M  3:30 PM EST

The Tigers won a close one in College Station at the beginning of last season, before everyone became obsessed with Johnny Football.  Manziel and his teammates will certainly be looking for revenge this week, with an eye on a potential BCS bid, but they are about to find out that Death Valley is not a hospitable place.  LSU is undefeated at home this season, and the Aggies are 0-2 ATS in away games.  Texas A&M defense still can't stop anyone, as evidenced by the 41 points the inept Mississippi State offense put up a few weeks ago.  Manziel may be able to put up a few points in Baton Rouge, but it won't be enough due to his team's defensive deficiencies.  Mettenberger and The Mad Hatter win this one by at least a touchdown in front of their raucous fans.  

Second Down: Oklahoma State +9 vs. Baylor 8:00 PM EST

If you saw how the Cowpoke fans welcomed the Gameday bus into town, you only have to imagine what Saturday night will be like in Stillwater when the fans in orange and black have had all day to consume alcoholic beverages.  Oklahoma State is getting more than a touchdown at home, against a team that only beat them by a touchdown in Waco last season.  The Cowboys showed what they were worth last week in Austin, when they essentially packed Mack Brown's office up for him.  Boone Pickens Stadium will be absolutely insane on Saturday night, and if the Bears manage to escape with a victory, it will be by a very slim margin.  Take the primetime home dog and the points, with a nibble at the big ML. 

Third Down: Arizona State -2 vs. UCLA 7:00 PM EST

Saturday night's game means everything for these two teams, as the winner will control their own destiny in the Pac 12 South.  With so much on the line, you have to look at how the teams have performed in big games.  Arizona State lost a close one to Notre Dame, but also won a big non-conference game against Wisconsin, and their huge victory over USC looks better with every week that passes.  On the other sideline, UCLA was lucky to win last week thanks to Keith Price's injury, and they have gotten beat soundly by the other two good teams they played (Stanford and Oregon).  This game will probably come down to the wire, but the Sun Devils win this one by at least a field goal and book their place in the Pac 12 championship game. 

Fourth Down: Washington State -1.5 vs. Utah  3:30 PM EST

Washington State's postseason dreams likely hinge on this game, as they can become bowl eligible with a win in Pullman this weekend.  The Cougars showed last weekend that they are determined to make it to a bowl by upsetting Arizona in Tucson, and Mike Leach's team looks incredibly focused after their two week break.  Since upsetting Stanford in Salt Lake City, Utah has been abysmal, losing four consecutive games.  Even worse for Utah fans is the fact that their team has lost every road conference game by double digits this season.  This game is a no-brainer...Swing your sword and back Mike Leach at home. 

Extra Point: Ohio State vs. Indiana UNDER 82 3:30 PM EST

This point total is is very close to last week's Baylor vs. Texas Tech game, which was also in the 80s.  People have been clamoring that Indiana can put up points with the best of them, after putting up 28 against Mizzou and Michigan State.  But the fact remains that this is the Big Ten, not the Big 12.  Indiana showed their true colors last week when they only managed a field goal against Wisconsin.  The Hoosiers have scored more than 17 points only once in their last five visits to the Horseshoe, and you know Urban Meyer will be looking for the blowout here.  Ohio State will get theirs, and the Buckeyes defense will keep the Hoosiers in check.  This one stays well under the total, with the Buckeyes winning big.  

The Four To Score: 20-25-1

Extra Points: 5-5-1

Overall: 25-30-1 

The Four To Score: Week 2

Lots of Chalk, Few Big Games

Week 1 has come and gone, but it was certainly a good one for those who read last week's edition of The Four To Score.  To briefly recap, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss narrowly covered, while Washington beat the daylights out of Boise State.  TCU was the only team that failed to get the job done, giving us a 3-1 record while leaving Gary Patterson to violently wipe the sweat of defeat off his face.  

Fear not though Gary, as another week of football is here to give your Horned Frogs a chance at righting the ship, and provides us with a chance at improving upon our 3-1 mark by going undefeated.  There are big numbers all over the board in Vegas, with very few big games on the docket.  That being said, after lots of analyzing, number-crunching, and caffeine-consumption, I've found four games that should provide winners for any of you that take part in that terrible, degenerate, government-frowned-upon activity known as "sports betting".  Now that Gary has gotten all the sweat out of his eyes, here are this week's picks:

First Down: Florida -3 vs. Miami

Miami is the savy underdog pick of the week for some college football fans out there.  After all, the Canes have 18 returning starters, and are getting points at home in a rivalry game, so it's easy to see why some people might think Florida should be on "Upset Alert."  However, these people are overlooking the fact that Miami was absolutely garbage against the three best defenses they played last year.  In games against Kansas State, Florida State, and Notre Dame, the Canes averaged 8.66 points a game.  Given that statistic, the coach Miami does not want to face is Will "Coach Boom" Muschamp, one of the best defensive minds in the game.  The Gators defense was ranked third in the country last season, and showed no signs of letting up in their game against Toledo last week, despite only returning 4 starters on that side the ball.  They say "defense wins championships", but it should really be phrased as "defense wins close rivalry games."  Florida's offense won't be pretty, but its defense will get the job done.  Lay the road chalk with the Gators, who have gone 10-3 as a road favorite since since 2008.

Second Down: South Carolina +3.5 vs. Georgia 

The Gamecocks and Bulldogs will square off this weekend between the hedges, with the winner becoming the favorite to win the SEC East.  Many pundits are picking Georgia to bounce back after their narrow loss to Clemson last week, but I'm a big believer in Spurrier and Clowney this year, and the value here lies with the Gamecocks.  Spurrier owns Mark Richt's soul, beating the Bulldogs each of the last three years.  Additionally, Clowney and Co. had extra time to recover and prepare for this week's game after an easy win against UNC last Thursday, while Georgia exerted a tremendous amount of energy Saturday night in that heavyweight bout with Clemson.  Though this year's game should be much closer than last year's rout, the Gamecocks still have the better defense, and are better suited to win a low-scoring slugfest.  I expect this game to come down to the wire, and with special teams play potentially deciding the outcome, you can't overlook the suspension of Georgia's starting kicker.  Give me Spurrier, Clowney, the three points, and the hook. 

Third Down: Michigan -3.5 vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame travels to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines in this "big rivalry" game that is not a "historic rivalry" depending on what day of the week it is for Brian Kelly.  Michigan has won three of the last four games played between these two teams, covering the spread every time.  In the one game they lost, which was last year, the Wolverines lost by only a touchdown despite turning the ball over six times.  Notre Dame may be stout up front with their defensive line this year, but I think the Wolverines have a definite edge at quarterback with Devin Gardner.  The Big House will be rocking on Saturday, and the Irish's luck has to be close to running out given how many close games they won last season.  Take the primetime home favorite as they look to get revenge in the last game of this rivalry to be played in Ann Arbor for some time. 

Fourth Down: USC -15.5 vs. Washington State

This line opened up at -17, but has since been moved down by bettors unimpressed with USC's opening week performance at Hawaii.  While USC looked very shaky last week, I try to avoid putting too much value into individual games.  Many people have the Trojans as their pick to win the PAC 12 South, and for good reason.  With Marqise Lee returning along with 14 other starters, the only thing this team needs is a serviceable quarterback.  I expect whomever starts this week to perform much better than last, given that the Trojans will be in the friendly confines of the Coliseum.  Over the past two years, USC has been phenomenal as a favorite at home, going 7-3 when laying the points.  On the other sideline, Washington State put up a great fight at Auburn last week, but turned the ball over three times, as quarterback Connor Halliday threw three picks.  A quarterback making errant throws is the last thing you want when Mike Leach is your coach, calling fifty pass plays a game.  Lay the points, as the Trojans should win big.

Extra Point: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia UNDER 58

Very seldom do I take totals, but I just can't help myself here.  Last week, the Oklahoma defense put up an extremely impressive performance, shutting out a Louisiana-Monroe offense that brought back eight starters.  OU's performance was very surprising considering the defense was considered a question mark before the season started, but they were very solid on tape.  Meanwhile, West Virginia struggled mightily at home against William and Mary, barely notching a 24-17 victory.  The Mountainers lost their three best players from last year's offense, and I expect that unit to have a very rough time in their first conference trip to Memorial Stadium.  With each team starting inexperienced quarterbacks, and the Oklahoma defense looking stout, I love the under here.

Best of luck, and hopefully we won't have to sweat-out any of these games like Gary up there.