The Four To Score: Week 2

Lots of Chalk, Few Big Games

Week 1 has come and gone, but it was certainly a good one for those who read last week's edition of The Four To Score.  To briefly recap, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss narrowly covered, while Washington beat the daylights out of Boise State.  TCU was the only team that failed to get the job done, giving us a 3-1 record while leaving Gary Patterson to violently wipe the sweat of defeat off his face.  

Fear not though Gary, as another week of football is here to give your Horned Frogs a chance at righting the ship, and provides us with a chance at improving upon our 3-1 mark by going undefeated.  There are big numbers all over the board in Vegas, with very few big games on the docket.  That being said, after lots of analyzing, number-crunching, and caffeine-consumption, I've found four games that should provide winners for any of you that take part in that terrible, degenerate, government-frowned-upon activity known as "sports betting".  Now that Gary has gotten all the sweat out of his eyes, here are this week's picks:

First Down: Florida -3 vs. Miami

Miami is the savy underdog pick of the week for some college football fans out there.  After all, the Canes have 18 returning starters, and are getting points at home in a rivalry game, so it's easy to see why some people might think Florida should be on "Upset Alert."  However, these people are overlooking the fact that Miami was absolutely garbage against the three best defenses they played last year.  In games against Kansas State, Florida State, and Notre Dame, the Canes averaged 8.66 points a game.  Given that statistic, the coach Miami does not want to face is Will "Coach Boom" Muschamp, one of the best defensive minds in the game.  The Gators defense was ranked third in the country last season, and showed no signs of letting up in their game against Toledo last week, despite only returning 4 starters on that side the ball.  They say "defense wins championships", but it should really be phrased as "defense wins close rivalry games."  Florida's offense won't be pretty, but its defense will get the job done.  Lay the road chalk with the Gators, who have gone 10-3 as a road favorite since since 2008.

Second Down: South Carolina +3.5 vs. Georgia 

The Gamecocks and Bulldogs will square off this weekend between the hedges, with the winner becoming the favorite to win the SEC East.  Many pundits are picking Georgia to bounce back after their narrow loss to Clemson last week, but I'm a big believer in Spurrier and Clowney this year, and the value here lies with the Gamecocks.  Spurrier owns Mark Richt's soul, beating the Bulldogs each of the last three years.  Additionally, Clowney and Co. had extra time to recover and prepare for this week's game after an easy win against UNC last Thursday, while Georgia exerted a tremendous amount of energy Saturday night in that heavyweight bout with Clemson.  Though this year's game should be much closer than last year's rout, the Gamecocks still have the better defense, and are better suited to win a low-scoring slugfest.  I expect this game to come down to the wire, and with special teams play potentially deciding the outcome, you can't overlook the suspension of Georgia's starting kicker.  Give me Spurrier, Clowney, the three points, and the hook. 

Third Down: Michigan -3.5 vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame travels to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines in this "big rivalry" game that is not a "historic rivalry" depending on what day of the week it is for Brian Kelly.  Michigan has won three of the last four games played between these two teams, covering the spread every time.  In the one game they lost, which was last year, the Wolverines lost by only a touchdown despite turning the ball over six times.  Notre Dame may be stout up front with their defensive line this year, but I think the Wolverines have a definite edge at quarterback with Devin Gardner.  The Big House will be rocking on Saturday, and the Irish's luck has to be close to running out given how many close games they won last season.  Take the primetime home favorite as they look to get revenge in the last game of this rivalry to be played in Ann Arbor for some time. 

Fourth Down: USC -15.5 vs. Washington State

This line opened up at -17, but has since been moved down by bettors unimpressed with USC's opening week performance at Hawaii.  While USC looked very shaky last week, I try to avoid putting too much value into individual games.  Many people have the Trojans as their pick to win the PAC 12 South, and for good reason.  With Marqise Lee returning along with 14 other starters, the only thing this team needs is a serviceable quarterback.  I expect whomever starts this week to perform much better than last, given that the Trojans will be in the friendly confines of the Coliseum.  Over the past two years, USC has been phenomenal as a favorite at home, going 7-3 when laying the points.  On the other sideline, Washington State put up a great fight at Auburn last week, but turned the ball over three times, as quarterback Connor Halliday threw three picks.  A quarterback making errant throws is the last thing you want when Mike Leach is your coach, calling fifty pass plays a game.  Lay the points, as the Trojans should win big.

Extra Point: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia UNDER 58

Very seldom do I take totals, but I just can't help myself here.  Last week, the Oklahoma defense put up an extremely impressive performance, shutting out a Louisiana-Monroe offense that brought back eight starters.  OU's performance was very surprising considering the defense was considered a question mark before the season started, but they were very solid on tape.  Meanwhile, West Virginia struggled mightily at home against William and Mary, barely notching a 24-17 victory.  The Mountainers lost their three best players from last year's offense, and I expect that unit to have a very rough time in their first conference trip to Memorial Stadium.  With each team starting inexperienced quarterbacks, and the Oklahoma defense looking stout, I love the under here.

Best of luck, and hopefully we won't have to sweat-out any of these games like Gary up there. 

The Four To Score: Week 1

Praise Baby Jesus, CFB Is Back!

The time has finally come, and the excitement in the air is palpable.  Football is back for another season of unbelievable plays, drama, and mayhem.  With this new year of football comes my first attempt at blogging through an entire season.  I'll do my best to get as many posts up here as I can while also taking care of that God-forsaken thing known as "law school", but you can count on me posting one weekly CFB blog each week: The Four To Score, which will provide my four college football picks ATS every week, with an "Extra Point" selection as well.  Hopefully you find this weekly piece both informative and entertaining, and should my picks fail you, feel free to give me all the grief that you deem appropriate in the comments section. Without further adieu, here are the picks for this week.

1st Down: Ole Miss -3 at Vanderbilt

Yes, you read that correctly.  I'm taking the road chalk on the opening night of the college football season.  Those of you who followed last season closely are probably exclaiming "Hey Jackwagon, Vandy covered at home last year against Clowney and South Carolina, so surely they'll get the cover or outright win here."  However, this is a new year, and there is a lot to love about the Ole Miss Rebels, especially the fact that they return 19 starters. QB Bo Wallace is back with four upper-classmen lineman to lead the way up front, and the electrifying WR Donte Moncrief out wide.  On the other side of the ball, the Rebels return last year's leading tackler in LB Denzel Nkemdiche, and they have added his younger brother DE Robert Nkemdiche, the highest-rated recruit in the country last year.  This defensive unit returns 10 starters, and should improve upon last year's 27.6 points allowed per game.  Additionally, Ole Miss was much better than their 7-6 record last year, as they nearly beat both LSU and Texas A&M while also going 9-3 ATS.  Vandy does return 13 starters, but they have a new starting quarterback, and have to replace the school's all-time leading rusher Zac Stacy.  I expect Ole Miss to come out very hungry in this one, especially when you consider how they lost to Vandy last year. Go against the grain, and lay the points in this one.

2nd Down: Washington -3.5 vs. Boise State

I'm usually a big backer of Chris Petersen and the Broncos, but I love the Huskies in this rematch of last year's Las Vegas Bowl for a number of reasons.  First, Boise barely beat the Huskies last year with a late field goal in the fourth quarter on a neutral field.  This year though, the game will be played in the newly-renovated Husky Stadium, giving Washington a big home-field advantage in addition to the revenge factor that is in play. Additionally, Washington is the more experienced team here, as they have twice as many returning starters as the Broncos.  Among those returning for the Huskies are third-year starting QB Keith Price, and all-world TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who should be the first TE taken in next year's draft if he declares.  Washington disappointed last season, and this mature lineup is eager to show it is much better than last year's record indicates.  Also, don't forget that Sarkisian gets his team to play well in big games, as shown in their upset of Stanford last year, and against USC in previous years.  An experienced, well-coached team returning to its home stadium, with the revenge factor in play is an automatic play to me with the short line posted on the board.

3rd Down: TCU +4.5 vs. LSU

If there was ever a time to pick against a top-tier SEC team in a big non-conference game, this would be it.  LSU will bring plenty of fans to JerryWorld for this one, but I expect there to be a giant turnout of TCU fans and locals to cheer on the home underdog.  Beyond the great atmosphere this game will produce, I think TCU has the advantage in a few key areas.  First and foremost: COACHING.  Gary Patterson is known for knocking off ranked opponents, as they have won 9 of their last 13 against ranked teams.  Moreover, he is not the Mad Hatter, who at times looks like he has no idea about what he is doing during the crucial points of a game.  On top of the big coaching advantage, TCU should have the advantage under center, with Casey Pachall returning to the team after being suspended for much of last year.  For those of you who may have forgotten about Pachall, he is the #1 FBS QB in Pass Efficiency among active players.  Finally, TCU's defense is loaded, bringing back nine starters from a team that was the second best defense in the Big XII last season, while LSU lost nearly everyone on that side of the ball.  The Horned Frogs defense could be bolstered by the potential return of the suspended DE Devonte Fields, as it was announced that he will dress for the game, though Patterson was vague about whether he would play.  Either way, this game should be a tight one all the way down to the wire, and thus the value is on the better-coached home dog.

4th Down: Oklahoma State -12.5 vs. Mississippi State

Like the TCU vs. LSU game, this one will also be played on a "neutral" field at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas.  Unlike the TCU vs. LSU matchup, I don't see this one being close at all.  Though Mississippi State brings back 12 starters, they were horrible last year against ranked teams.  In four games against ranked opponents, they lost all of them by double digits, and lost three of them by 20 or more points.  The defense was awful against quality opponents, giving up over 34 points in each of those contests, and over 350 yards in each game, including 693 against Texas A&M.  Additionally, they lost every game in which they were an underdog, both straight up and ATS.  Meanwhile, the #13 Oklahoma State Cowboys bring back 15 starters, including 8 from an offense that put up 45.7 points a game last year.  Though they lost Joseph Randle to the NFL, Oklahoma State has produced six consecutive 1,000 yard RBs, so there shouldn't be much worrying about a drop-off in rushing production.  When you look at the numbers from last season, the Cowboys were fantastic as favorites, going 7-3 when laying points, and 7-0 as a favorite at home or on a neutral field.  Simply put, this Cowboys offense should run all over the Bulldogs in what will essentially be a home game for Oklahoma State.

Extra Point: Texas OVER 9.5 Wins
Since the season has not started yet, props for win totals are still available.  Go ahead and call me a homer for this pick, but there is a lot to like about the Longhorns this season. Nineteen returning starters, an easy Big XII schedule, and one of the best OL and RB unit duos in the country should bode well for the Longhorns this year.  Though he has received heavy criticism in the past few years, Mack has achieved ten wins in the regular season seven times since 2001.  While I don't think Texas can go undefeated, I do think a ten wins is easily attainable for this squad given it's schedule, and is one of my favorite Season Win Total Props on the board.

That's all for this week.  Hope you enjoyed the read, and are ready for a great season here at Rushing The Field!