The Four To Score: Week 2

Let The Good Times Roll 

"Nick, it was only one shot of Fireball with Holgo"

Despite the minefield of mega-lines that is Week 1 of every college football season, we were able to start the season off on the right track. It wasn't always easy (see: Bo Wallace's dumpster-fire first half), and some luck was needed at times (looking at you, Buckeyes), but there were some absolutely correct calls made last week as well. Thanks to incredible performances from Kenny Trill and Aaron Jones, Texas A&M and UTEP said "to hell with the spread" and pulled off road upsets despite being dogs of more than a touchdown. I've got a very narrow lead over Chad coming out of the gate, but it was a damn good week for The Four To Score overall, as our picks went a combined 7-2-1. There are a few more marquee matchups on the board this week, but as shown by UTEP, winners can be found in even the least appealing games. Lets jump into this week's picks, as we do our best to avoid a Wisconsin-esque collapse in Week 2.

First Down: Oregon -12 vs. Michigan State, 6:30 PM EST (Garrett)

Michigan State has all the conference championship hype behind it now that Braxton Miller has been lost for the season. It has also has a shiny Rose Bowl trophy from last season that most people are probably putting a lot of weight into when looking into this week's game. But Sparty doesn't know what it will be walking into Saturday when they set foot in Autzen Stadium, and they sure as hell don't have the country's best player on their team. Oregon has been fantastic as a home favorite over the past ten years, going 36-22-2 ATS. Marcus Mariota has also been a horse to back during his time on campus, as the best player in the country has gone 16-10 against the number. Michigan State's defense was fairly salty on the whole last season, but they only return five starters this year, and last year's unit gave up some pretty big numbers to two of the best offensive teams it faced (374 yds against Ohio State, 392 at Nebraska). Mariota and the Ducks' offensive pace will prove to be too much, as the Ducks make a declaration of intent in a marquee game that features the lowest Oregon home betting line since 2010.

Stanford -2.5 vs. USC, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)

Oh boy, this one is going to be fun. The margin of victory for whoever wins won't exceed single digits. There is not a single team in college football I have been more impressed with than Stanford over the past 5 years. I loved what Harbaugh did, and David Shaw has only improved on that mold. In 2010 and 2011 Chip Kelly's dystopian duck cyborg blood machine dismantled Stanford by at least 20 points, but the Cardinal have solved their Oregon problem over the past two years (two wins: 17-14, 26-20). I know USC isn't Oregon, but I mention them to show Stanford can hold an explosive offense down, as far as scheme goes (the likes of 19 year letterman Shayne Skov will be sorely missed, obviously). USC is a dangerous team, and they appear to be the cream of the Pac 12 West out of the gate. This one could go either way. but  the Revenge of the Nerds continues into 2014. Give me the proven, consistent Cardinal by a field goal.

Second Down: Colorado State +10 at Boise State, 10:15 PM EST (Garrett)

Don't look now, but Jim McElwain is building himself a nice little program up at Colorado State. The Rams started the season off on the right track last week, beating in-state rival Colorado by 14 in Denver. Last year's game between these two teams was a strange one, as the Rams outgained the Broncos by 189 yards, held the ball twice as long, but lost by 12 due to going 4-7 on 4th Down. Colorado State's offense showed no signs of slowing down last week, as they produced two 100 yard rushers in the victory over the Buffs. If the Rams can be a bit better in the turnover game, their rushing attack should be able to control the clock, and the offense will give them a chance to win outright.

No, we don't miss you.

Texas +1 vs. BYU, 7:00 PM EST (Chad)
This a complete gut feeling, and I want desperately to be right. As much trauma as the Horns offense has experienced over the past six weeks, it's hard to disagree with this line. But, I saw a different Texas team last week. A team that was actually playing football, and isn't going to lose if they can help it. The key cogs to a Texas victory haven't been suspended (yet). The defense will carry the day, and the two-headed monster of Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray will do just enough to keep Texas' head above water offensively. The culture change in Austin is real, thank god, and Texas escapes to Arlington undefeated.

Third Down: Washington State -3 vs. Nevada, 10:30 PM EST FRIDAY (Garrett)

And he covers on Friday. 

If previous trends continue, Washington State losing a close one at home last week to Rutgers should be a blessing for bettors this week. Mike Leach has been pretty damn good at getting his teams to bounce back after a loss, as Wazzu has gone 9-6 ATS in games coming off a SU loss. Furthermore, the Cougars have been good against the number away from home, going a perfect 6-0 last season, and 8-4 over the last two seasons. They may be bottom-feeders in the PAC 12, but Leach's team should have a distinct talent advantage this week when they head to Reno to take on a Nevada team that gave up an average of 500 yards per game last season. That type of defense is exactly what pass-happy Mike Leach and Connor Halliday want to see in a game they must win if they want any chance of going to a second consecutive bowl game.

I wish we missed you. I really do. But, we don't. We miss your pants, though.

Tennessee -17 vs. Arkansas State 12:00 PM EST (Chad)
Consider me a full believer in what Butch Jones is doing in Knoxville. He has won everywhere he's been, and the Volunteers were better than people realize last year. Tennessee looked better than expected against a competent Utah State team last week, and the Vols are still being underestimated. This team has talent, and they will put a scare into an over-hyped OU team next week. Plus, nothing Arkansas State is bringing to the table excites me. Literally, nothing. I have no intention of watching this one, but will be refreshing the box score frequently. Tennessee cruises into their showdown with the Sooners next week by at least 3 scores...

Fourth Down: Oklahoma -24.5 at Tulsa, 12 PM EST (Garrett)

Call me crazy for laying this kind of chalk on the road, but history is on my side in this one. Since the turn of the century, these two teams have met on the gridiron seven times, and in every game but one, Big Brother has hammered the hell out of Little Brother. Outside of the 2005 matchup when Bob Stoops had Paul Thompson and Rhett Bomar (CHA-CHING!) under center, Oklahoma has won every other game in this series by 31 or more! Bolstering my belief that another blowout is in the cards are the numbers Tulsa's opponents put up last year. Against the better teams they played in conference last season, Tulsa was annihilated. Against both UNT and Marshall, they were outgained by at least 275 yards, and were throttled by 34 points on the road at East Carolina. Hell, they just gave up 516 yards to TULANE last week, including 254 on the ground. Oklahoma's offense will run riot, and the Sooners' defense should do plenty to hold Tulsa in check. Bobby's boys win by at least thirty.

Pittsburgh -4 at Boston College, 7:00 PM EST (Chad)
I really hate to throw a boring, middle of the road ACC game at you guys here, but what else are you going to watch on Friday night? Boston College has essentially zero returning skill players on offense. Andre Williams has taken his talents and 2,200 rushing yards to the NFL, and his incredible season was all that kept the Eagles relevant for much of 2013. Pitt, however, has the look of a team who is finally taking on their head coach's identity. Paul Chryst was the Offensive Coordinator at Wisconsin during the prime of the Bielema years, when the Badgers just absolutely pounded the rock. Chryst returns two 800 yard backs from last year (James Conner and Isaac Bennett) and four starters on the offensive line. Look for Pitt to try and bulldoze their way to a seven point win.

P.S:  Boston College's addition of Florida transfer Tyler Murphy at QB is a total wild card here and could ruin everything. He looked good against a helpless UMass team in week one. This is my fourth pick for a reason, so proceed with caution. 

Extra Point: Texas vs. BYU UNDER 46.5, 7:30 PM EST (Garrett)

I have absolutely no confidence in predicting who will win this game, but all signs point to it being a game dominated by the defenses. With both David Ash and Dom Espinosa out, QB Tyrone Swoopes and C Jake Raulerson will both be making their first ever collegiate starts, which will probably lead to some trying times for the Horns on offense. Flip the script, and you can bank on Taysom Hill not getting anywhere close to the numbers he put up in last year's game in Provo, as the Texas front seven looked pretty damn nasty last week. Both teams will be desperate for points in this one, and barring D/ST TDs, this one has the making of a "first team to twenty wins" game...if either team even gets to twenty.

UCLA -23.5 vs. Memphis, 10:00 PM EST (Chad)
I'm not big on UCLA this year, but this is absolutely ridiculous. Yes, UCLA struggled against Virginia. Virginia had the horses to stay with UCLA on critical downs, and it showed some chinks in the Bruins armor. UCLA will be in some dog fights in league play, but not against Memphis. This is a classic case of people overreacting to a bad showing. UVA has some athletes on defense (seriously, is there a bigger "sleeping giant" than UVA?), and the scare they gave UCLA should provide the Bruins with some added motivation to prove they are the team the country thinks they are. UCLA runs away with this one early. 

Garrett's Record: 4-1

Chad's Record: 3-1-1

Overall Four To Score Record: 7-2-1

The Four To Score: Week 1

Praise Baby Jesus, CFB Is Back!

The time has finally come, and the excitement in the air is palpable.  Football is back for another season of unbelievable plays, drama, and mayhem.  With this new year of football comes my first attempt at blogging through an entire season.  I'll do my best to get as many posts up here as I can while also taking care of that God-forsaken thing known as "law school", but you can count on me posting one weekly CFB blog each week: The Four To Score, which will provide my four college football picks ATS every week, with an "Extra Point" selection as well.  Hopefully you find this weekly piece both informative and entertaining, and should my picks fail you, feel free to give me all the grief that you deem appropriate in the comments section. Without further adieu, here are the picks for this week.

1st Down: Ole Miss -3 at Vanderbilt

Yes, you read that correctly.  I'm taking the road chalk on the opening night of the college football season.  Those of you who followed last season closely are probably exclaiming "Hey Jackwagon, Vandy covered at home last year against Clowney and South Carolina, so surely they'll get the cover or outright win here."  However, this is a new year, and there is a lot to love about the Ole Miss Rebels, especially the fact that they return 19 starters. QB Bo Wallace is back with four upper-classmen lineman to lead the way up front, and the electrifying WR Donte Moncrief out wide.  On the other side of the ball, the Rebels return last year's leading tackler in LB Denzel Nkemdiche, and they have added his younger brother DE Robert Nkemdiche, the highest-rated recruit in the country last year.  This defensive unit returns 10 starters, and should improve upon last year's 27.6 points allowed per game.  Additionally, Ole Miss was much better than their 7-6 record last year, as they nearly beat both LSU and Texas A&M while also going 9-3 ATS.  Vandy does return 13 starters, but they have a new starting quarterback, and have to replace the school's all-time leading rusher Zac Stacy.  I expect Ole Miss to come out very hungry in this one, especially when you consider how they lost to Vandy last year. Go against the grain, and lay the points in this one.

2nd Down: Washington -3.5 vs. Boise State

I'm usually a big backer of Chris Petersen and the Broncos, but I love the Huskies in this rematch of last year's Las Vegas Bowl for a number of reasons.  First, Boise barely beat the Huskies last year with a late field goal in the fourth quarter on a neutral field.  This year though, the game will be played in the newly-renovated Husky Stadium, giving Washington a big home-field advantage in addition to the revenge factor that is in play. Additionally, Washington is the more experienced team here, as they have twice as many returning starters as the Broncos.  Among those returning for the Huskies are third-year starting QB Keith Price, and all-world TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who should be the first TE taken in next year's draft if he declares.  Washington disappointed last season, and this mature lineup is eager to show it is much better than last year's record indicates.  Also, don't forget that Sarkisian gets his team to play well in big games, as shown in their upset of Stanford last year, and against USC in previous years.  An experienced, well-coached team returning to its home stadium, with the revenge factor in play is an automatic play to me with the short line posted on the board.

3rd Down: TCU +4.5 vs. LSU

If there was ever a time to pick against a top-tier SEC team in a big non-conference game, this would be it.  LSU will bring plenty of fans to JerryWorld for this one, but I expect there to be a giant turnout of TCU fans and locals to cheer on the home underdog.  Beyond the great atmosphere this game will produce, I think TCU has the advantage in a few key areas.  First and foremost: COACHING.  Gary Patterson is known for knocking off ranked opponents, as they have won 9 of their last 13 against ranked teams.  Moreover, he is not the Mad Hatter, who at times looks like he has no idea about what he is doing during the crucial points of a game.  On top of the big coaching advantage, TCU should have the advantage under center, with Casey Pachall returning to the team after being suspended for much of last year.  For those of you who may have forgotten about Pachall, he is the #1 FBS QB in Pass Efficiency among active players.  Finally, TCU's defense is loaded, bringing back nine starters from a team that was the second best defense in the Big XII last season, while LSU lost nearly everyone on that side of the ball.  The Horned Frogs defense could be bolstered by the potential return of the suspended DE Devonte Fields, as it was announced that he will dress for the game, though Patterson was vague about whether he would play.  Either way, this game should be a tight one all the way down to the wire, and thus the value is on the better-coached home dog.

4th Down: Oklahoma State -12.5 vs. Mississippi State

Like the TCU vs. LSU game, this one will also be played on a "neutral" field at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas.  Unlike the TCU vs. LSU matchup, I don't see this one being close at all.  Though Mississippi State brings back 12 starters, they were horrible last year against ranked teams.  In four games against ranked opponents, they lost all of them by double digits, and lost three of them by 20 or more points.  The defense was awful against quality opponents, giving up over 34 points in each of those contests, and over 350 yards in each game, including 693 against Texas A&M.  Additionally, they lost every game in which they were an underdog, both straight up and ATS.  Meanwhile, the #13 Oklahoma State Cowboys bring back 15 starters, including 8 from an offense that put up 45.7 points a game last year.  Though they lost Joseph Randle to the NFL, Oklahoma State has produced six consecutive 1,000 yard RBs, so there shouldn't be much worrying about a drop-off in rushing production.  When you look at the numbers from last season, the Cowboys were fantastic as favorites, going 7-3 when laying points, and 7-0 as a favorite at home or on a neutral field.  Simply put, this Cowboys offense should run all over the Bulldogs in what will essentially be a home game for Oklahoma State.

Extra Point: Texas OVER 9.5 Wins
Since the season has not started yet, props for win totals are still available.  Go ahead and call me a homer for this pick, but there is a lot to like about the Longhorns this season. Nineteen returning starters, an easy Big XII schedule, and one of the best OL and RB unit duos in the country should bode well for the Longhorns this year.  Though he has received heavy criticism in the past few years, Mack has achieved ten wins in the regular season seven times since 2001.  While I don't think Texas can go undefeated, I do think a ten wins is easily attainable for this squad given it's schedule, and is one of my favorite Season Win Total Props on the board.

That's all for this week.  Hope you enjoyed the read, and are ready for a great season here at Rushing The Field!