The Four To Score: Week 2

Lots of Chalk, Few Big Games

Week 1 has come and gone, but it was certainly a good one for those who read last week's edition of The Four To Score.  To briefly recap, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss narrowly covered, while Washington beat the daylights out of Boise State.  TCU was the only team that failed to get the job done, giving us a 3-1 record while leaving Gary Patterson to violently wipe the sweat of defeat off his face.  

Fear not though Gary, as another week of football is here to give your Horned Frogs a chance at righting the ship, and provides us with a chance at improving upon our 3-1 mark by going undefeated.  There are big numbers all over the board in Vegas, with very few big games on the docket.  That being said, after lots of analyzing, number-crunching, and caffeine-consumption, I've found four games that should provide winners for any of you that take part in that terrible, degenerate, government-frowned-upon activity known as "sports betting".  Now that Gary has gotten all the sweat out of his eyes, here are this week's picks:

First Down: Florida -3 vs. Miami

Miami is the savy underdog pick of the week for some college football fans out there.  After all, the Canes have 18 returning starters, and are getting points at home in a rivalry game, so it's easy to see why some people might think Florida should be on "Upset Alert."  However, these people are overlooking the fact that Miami was absolutely garbage against the three best defenses they played last year.  In games against Kansas State, Florida State, and Notre Dame, the Canes averaged 8.66 points a game.  Given that statistic, the coach Miami does not want to face is Will "Coach Boom" Muschamp, one of the best defensive minds in the game.  The Gators defense was ranked third in the country last season, and showed no signs of letting up in their game against Toledo last week, despite only returning 4 starters on that side the ball.  They say "defense wins championships", but it should really be phrased as "defense wins close rivalry games."  Florida's offense won't be pretty, but its defense will get the job done.  Lay the road chalk with the Gators, who have gone 10-3 as a road favorite since since 2008.

Second Down: South Carolina +3.5 vs. Georgia 

The Gamecocks and Bulldogs will square off this weekend between the hedges, with the winner becoming the favorite to win the SEC East.  Many pundits are picking Georgia to bounce back after their narrow loss to Clemson last week, but I'm a big believer in Spurrier and Clowney this year, and the value here lies with the Gamecocks.  Spurrier owns Mark Richt's soul, beating the Bulldogs each of the last three years.  Additionally, Clowney and Co. had extra time to recover and prepare for this week's game after an easy win against UNC last Thursday, while Georgia exerted a tremendous amount of energy Saturday night in that heavyweight bout with Clemson.  Though this year's game should be much closer than last year's rout, the Gamecocks still have the better defense, and are better suited to win a low-scoring slugfest.  I expect this game to come down to the wire, and with special teams play potentially deciding the outcome, you can't overlook the suspension of Georgia's starting kicker.  Give me Spurrier, Clowney, the three points, and the hook. 

Third Down: Michigan -3.5 vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame travels to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines in this "big rivalry" game that is not a "historic rivalry" depending on what day of the week it is for Brian Kelly.  Michigan has won three of the last four games played between these two teams, covering the spread every time.  In the one game they lost, which was last year, the Wolverines lost by only a touchdown despite turning the ball over six times.  Notre Dame may be stout up front with their defensive line this year, but I think the Wolverines have a definite edge at quarterback with Devin Gardner.  The Big House will be rocking on Saturday, and the Irish's luck has to be close to running out given how many close games they won last season.  Take the primetime home favorite as they look to get revenge in the last game of this rivalry to be played in Ann Arbor for some time. 

Fourth Down: USC -15.5 vs. Washington State

This line opened up at -17, but has since been moved down by bettors unimpressed with USC's opening week performance at Hawaii.  While USC looked very shaky last week, I try to avoid putting too much value into individual games.  Many people have the Trojans as their pick to win the PAC 12 South, and for good reason.  With Marqise Lee returning along with 14 other starters, the only thing this team needs is a serviceable quarterback.  I expect whomever starts this week to perform much better than last, given that the Trojans will be in the friendly confines of the Coliseum.  Over the past two years, USC has been phenomenal as a favorite at home, going 7-3 when laying the points.  On the other sideline, Washington State put up a great fight at Auburn last week, but turned the ball over three times, as quarterback Connor Halliday threw three picks.  A quarterback making errant throws is the last thing you want when Mike Leach is your coach, calling fifty pass plays a game.  Lay the points, as the Trojans should win big.

Extra Point: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia UNDER 58

Very seldom do I take totals, but I just can't help myself here.  Last week, the Oklahoma defense put up an extremely impressive performance, shutting out a Louisiana-Monroe offense that brought back eight starters.  OU's performance was very surprising considering the defense was considered a question mark before the season started, but they were very solid on tape.  Meanwhile, West Virginia struggled mightily at home against William and Mary, barely notching a 24-17 victory.  The Mountainers lost their three best players from last year's offense, and I expect that unit to have a very rough time in their first conference trip to Memorial Stadium.  With each team starting inexperienced quarterbacks, and the Oklahoma defense looking stout, I love the under here.

Best of luck, and hopefully we won't have to sweat-out any of these games like Gary up there.