The Four To Score: Week Eight

Lets Forget About "Bloody Saturday"

Bloody Saturday. Black Saturday, if you're into historical stock market references. Whatever you want to call it, last week was not pretty here at Rushing The Field. Chad West, CPA and I took a severe beating. Some would say our wallets caught Ebola, given the hemorrhaging that occurred. Others might say it was as bad as SMU's football team at the beginning of the season. No matter how you slice it or dice it, last week was BAD. Now, the only positive to take from this is that the only place to go from here is up. We're like Washington, before Sarkisian arrived. If we fall any further, we'll be in Dante's Ninth Level of Hell, being forced to watch every play of every noon kickoff game in the Big Ten. No one wants to go there. I'm pretty sure Big Ten fans don't even want to go there. We do want to head back to the glorious Winner's Circle, and hopefully these picks do just that.

Oh, and if you know where Chad West, CPA, is, that information would be greatly appreciated. I can only presume he's face down in a ditch somewhere.

First Down: Oklahoma -7 vs. Kansas State, 12:00 PM EST

This line opened up around -9.5, but has since plummeted down to a touchdown, likely based on Oklahoma's performances the past two weeks. I don't think those two weeks are indicative of where this Oklahoma team is, and especially the type of team it is at home. First, the loss at TCU spoke more about where TCU is as a team, as the Horned Frogs look like a serious contender for the Big 12 Championship after back-to-back phenomenal performances against OU and Baylor. With how bad Trevor Knight's stat line was that game, if he makes a few more completions instead of interceptions, Oklahoma probably gets the W there. Secondly, anyone who knows about the Texas-OU rivalry knew Stoops was going to play that game very close to the chest, a la 2004. Oklahoma knew that if it didn't beat itself, it would win that game, and though their plan was nearly blown up by an incredible performance by Tyrone Swoopes, the Sooners were able to leave the Cotton Bowl with the Golden Hat. You can bet Oklahoma will be looking forward to return to its friendly confines after two very tough contests, and though K-State is a very well-coached ball club, there is still a big talent disparity between these two clubs. Oklahoma has been phenomenal at home under Stoops, and with an HFA around 4-5, there is no way the Sooners are only 2 -3 points better than Kansas State on a neutral field. Big Game Bob gets a statement win at home, as the Sooners win by double digits and look to get back in the playoff race.

Second Down: Washington +21 at Oregon, 8:00 PM EST

I'm going back to the well this week, after the Huskies won outright for me at Cal last weekend. Oregon certainly surprised me with their performance in the Rose Bowl last weekend, and even though King Mariota is the best player in the country, this is just too many points to pass up for a very good defensive team coached by Chris Petersen. All-Galaxy LB Shaq Thompson, who has scored four defensive TDs on the year, and the DL's in front of him will provide a very stiff test for Mariota and the Oregon offensive line. Excluding the debacle against Eastern Washington, Petersen's defensive unit hasn't given up more than twenty points in a game. I don't think Cyler Miles will be able to put up enough points for the Huskies to pull off the upset outright, but this should be a pretty close contest heading into the fourth quarter. 

Third Down: Colorado State -5.5 vs. Utah State, 7:00 PM EST

Utah State has bounced back after a bad loss against Arkansas State, but the winning streak will end in Fort Collins this week. As I stated earlier this year, I love what Nick Saban disciple Jim McElwain has been doing for the Rams. They have only lost one game ATS this year, when they had to travel up to the land of the wacky blue turf up in Idaho. Outside of that, they've done just about everything you could ask for. They won outright as a dog on the road at Boston College, something USC couldn't do. They've covered big numbers at home. They also beat their in-state rival on a neutral field to start the season. While Utah State does have a win over BYU, that win's significance is diminished by the fact that Taysom Hill's season ended in the first half. Outside of that win in Provo, the Aggies don't have a good win to their name. Give me the proven cover machine here, as Colorado State wins by at least a touchdown. 

Fourth Down: Georgia Tech -1 vs. North Carolina, 7:00 PM EST

Yes, Paul Johnson's crew failed to get the job done for me against Duke last week, but there are a lot of good things to take away from that game's box score. If it weren't for three turnovers, the Yellow Jackets probably would still be undefeated, as they out gained the Blue Devils by more than 100 yards. Additionally, even with a bye week to prepare for GT's rushing attack, Duke still gave up 6.1 yards per rush. North Carolina's sup-optimal defense doesn't have that privilege, and they have given up points to everyone this year: 58 to Notre Dame, 50 to Clemson, and 70 to East Carolina. The Tar Heels are ranked 90th in Rush Defense and 113th in Total Defense, which should bode very wall for Georgia Tech. Additionally, the Yellow Jackets have absolutely DOMINATED North Carolina in recent memory. as they have won eight of the last nine in this series. Again, Georgia Tech should run up, down, and all over North Carolina. If the defense can get a few stops against the Tar Heels offense, GT should win this one comfortably. 

Extra Point: Arkansas vs. Georgia UNDER 55.5, 4:00 PM EST

Expect to get a heavy dose of smash-mouth football in Arkansas this weekend. Bielema loves to pound the rock, and with Gurley out for Georgia, you can bank on Richt playing it close to the chest on offense. Both defensive units have also looked pretty good the past two weeks, with Arky holding Bama to fourteen points, and the Bulldogs 17th-ranked unit pitching a shutout at Mizzou. I'll take my chances on the under in what should be a close contest filled with lots of rushing attempts and punts.

Garrett's Record: 17-15-3

Chad's Record: 11-24-1

Overall Record: 28-39-4

The Four To Score: Week 3

Conference play needs to get here...FAST!

Yeah, we get it Pat. We messed up. Now go back to eating hot dogs in the box.

As stated before, the college football season is a bit of a marathon, and you are bound to slip up at some points here and there. Last week, The Four To Score forgot to tie its shoes and fell flat on its face. Bad picks (Wazzu, Texas, and UCLA) and bad beats (Texas-BYU under, Stanford) brought us back toward the 50% mark after a stellar Week 1. Chad was hit a bit harder by last week's results, as he struggled to a 1-4 week. I'd argue that I was a bit more unlucky, as the only thing that kept me from a winning week was the Texas defense not coming out of the tunnel until the fourth quarter (game was 6-0 at halftime and destined to go well under the total, only for there to be 35 points in 3rd quarter). Enough with the griping though. The third week of college football provides us with an opportunity to make things right, and get back on that winning horse. Based on the card this week, we'll just say that we can't wait for conference play to get here.... 

First Down: West Virginia +3.5 at Maryland, 12:00 PM EST (Garrett)

Revenge of the Holgo

Though the Mountaineers got ruined (37-0 in this game last year, Holgo's boys are a much different team than the version we saw last year. They more than held their own against Alabama in the opener, and looked sharp again last week, even if they were only playing Towson. On the other side of the ball, Maryland looks like it might have taken a step back from last year. They haven't played anyone coming out the gate, yet still nearly lost to South Florida last week in a game that saw the Terps turn the ball over six times! Had they played a team with a competent offense, Maryland would rightfully be 1-1. The last thing you can do against a Dana Holgorsen team is give them more opportunities to score...Clint Trickett and the Moutaineers will do just enough this week in a big revenge spot to get the win outright. Prepare the couches, Morgantown!

The face of a man about to deliver a Country Ass Whippin'

Baylor -33 at Buffalo, 8:00 EST FRIDAY (Chad)

Baylor is rapidly becoming the Oregon of the Bible belt, exchanging the frank, to the point speed of Chip Kelly with the folksy, cornpone spinnings of Art Briles. Briles is a long undervalued master of Offense and his Bears have cruised through the first two weeks. Baylor leaves their new Boatgating Palace for the first time this season and heads to the Canadian Border town of Buffalo to play the Bulls. Honestly, I have no idea who Buffalo's current coach is, and I don't care. It could be the second coming of Hal Mumme and my analysis wouldn't change. Buffalo beat Duquesne by 10(!) in week one, then proceeded to lose to the Juggernaut that is Army by 8 in week two. Buffalo is bad, and Baylor is not. Baylor by more than 5 scores.

Second Down: Arkansas +2 at Texas Tech, 3:30 PM EST (Garrett)

I must admit that I'm a bit worried about the lights finally coming on against Texas Tech. That being said, this team in turmoil is going up against an extremely hungry Arkansas team desperate to end a ten game losing streak in games against meaningful opposition. Simply put, the situation and the matchup favor Woo Pig. The Red Raiders have been undisciplined (25 penalties for 204 yards) and couldn't stop the run against lowly UTEP or Central Arkansas (108th in the country, giving up 224.5 ypg on the ground). Conversely, Bielema's boys at Arkansas thrive on running the ball, as they are currently 12th in the country in rushing yards, and QB Brandon Allen is a lot better than most people think. The Razorbacks ground attack should allow them to slow the game, and keep Tech's offense from getting into a groove by keeping them off the field. Woo Pig narrowly missed out on the cover in Week 1 against Auburn, but they get the cover and the win here.

Unfortunately, the Universe will not deprive the archetypal Tech fan of a W Saturday. Wreck 'Em!

Texas Tech -2 vs. Arkansas, 3:30 EST (Chad)

Under very few circumstances would I ever pick against Texas Tech with conviction given the past decade plus of Red Raider football. At home, against a less than established opponent is not one of them.  Yes, Arkansas can run the ball. Yes, Arkansas has considerably more talent than either Central Arkansas or UTEP. But, let's be real. This is Texas Tech, Destroyer of Dreams, playing in their desolate tumbleweed and tortilla infested fortress. Cliff Kingsbury is no idiot, and will have his guys fired up and ready to play Arkansas. They will even be wearing Dykes era throwback helmets, which would make the Hogs running all over them all to ironic. Kliff has hired a non-idiot to run his defense (Matt Wallerstedt) who will stuff the box. Brandon Allen might be "better than people think," but better there is a bunch of room between "Literally Cannot Hit Broad Side of Barn" and "Still Not Very Good" (Allen is somewhere between those two right now). It may not be a blowout, it may not be convincing, but somehow the Raider's pull this one off. 

Third Down: Colorado +15.5 vs. Arizona State, 10:00 PM EST (Garrett)

As I stated in our season preview, the Sun Devils are likely to regress this season given the inexperience on defense (only 2 returning starters). This is the first game in which that unit will go up against a competent offense, as last week's opponent New Mexico is an option-based team, and Weber state is Weber State. Look, I'm not saying Colorado is a world-beater that will win this one outright. After all, they barely beat UMass last week by a field goal. That being said, the offense did look like a unit that had figured some things out, and this game is a massive revenge spot for the Buffaloes given what the Sun Devils did to them in Tempe last season (54-13). Expect to see some wacky things happen late at night in Boulder on Saturday, as Arizona State will be hoping to just get to their bye week unscathed before hitting the bulk of their schedule.

Oregon -43.5 vs. Wyoming, 2:00 PM EST (Chad)
Oregon scored 46 against Michigan State, the latest "Hey, the B1G doesn't suck!" team to get embarrassed. Wyoming is... I can't. Seriously, if my editorial director wouldn't have thrown a fit, I would've just put "BAHAHAHAHA" and then a picture of Puddles riding a motorcycle. But... Actually, whatever. I don't care...

Fourth Down: Penn State -3 vs. Rutgers, 8 PM EST (Garrett)

Happy times in Happy Valley right now. 

I was pretty impressed when Rutgers was able to go on the road to Wazzu in Week 1 and get an upset win as an eight point underdog. Then Wazzu lost last week to Nevada, and Rutgers' win against Mike Leach's crew started to look like just an ordinary W. Though Rutgers returns 16 starters and will be playing their first ever B1G game at home, I just think there is a distinct difference in talent here that will lead to a Penn State victory. I loved seeing how James Franklin's unit responded to some adversity in Dublin, driving down the field in the last 1:13 of the game to kick a game-winning field goal (not to mention UCF is a much more formidable opponent than Wazzu). Also, don't forget the added meaning every game now has for the Nittany Lions, as they recently had their postseason eligibility reinstated. For the conference race and bowl purposes, the Penn State can ill afford to lose a game against the team that many predicted would finish at the bottom of the B1G East. Hackenberg will shine once again for Penn State, as they win by a touchdown on the road.

Georgia -5.0 at South Carolina, 3:30 EST (Chad)
When we last saw our hero, he was sulking back to his headquarters at Augusta National, fresh off a swagtastic ass whipping from Kevin Sumlin and the Aggies ( I know they played East Carolina and won last week, but that ruins the narrative). Unfortunately, things will get worse before they get better for the HBC. I predicted doom for South Carolina this year and nothing I've seen in the first two week changes that line of thinking. They simply lost too much on defense to be a front line contender in the SEC. Georgia, however, has the look of a front runner all of the sudden, with Todd Gurley looking very much like an invitee to New York for the Heisman ceremony come awards season. Sandstorm and a little Tennessee trash talkin' had a hell of a run over the past 3 seasons, but Saturday marks the true beginning of the end for Spurrier's run at South Carolina. Our hero will next be relevant in 2017... (URL for SpurrierforTexas.com still available. NO, not for a coaching position, silly, for Governor!).

Extra Point: Notre Dame vs. Purdue UNDER 57.5, 7:30 PM EST (Garrett)

In the past eight years, this game has gone under the total five times (5-2-1), and only twice has the posted total been north of 57.5 (both contests went under). When you look at this matchup, a few things stand out. First, Purdue is &%^*&! awful. Secondly, this game reeks of being a hangover spot for Notre Dame after last week's huge rivalry win over Michigan. Purdue struggled to score against Central Michigan last week at home, and odds are that trend will continue against the team that shutout Michigan in primetime. That being said, this one will probably be closer than people think (Notre Dame is -28), as four of the last five games in this series have been decided by 11 points or less. Purdue struggles to score, but somehow hangs around for awhile in a game that stays well under the posted total. 

"I told you sir, we are out of midsize sedans. We have a great selection in the economy class still available."

Arkansas St. +17.5 vs. Miami (FL) 3:30 EST (Chad)
At this point, I wouldn't trust Al Golden to run an Enterprise Rent-a-Car (get it, he looks like he works there). Looking at comps, Arkansas State covered against a pretty good Tennessee team on the road in Knoxville last week. Miami is probably about as talented as the Volunteers, but is still breaking in a True Freshman at Quarterback. Arkansas States doesn't win, but they lose by less than this. 

Garrett's Record: 6-4

Chad's Record: 4-5-1

Overall Four To Score Record: 10-9-1

The Four To Score: Week 10

The Games May Suck, But These Picks Don't

Let's face it...this week's games are horrible.  In fact, some might even say they are worse than the jerseys Oregon State sported against USC this week, which really is saying something based on the level of "suck" the Beavers achieved Friday night.  Given the amount of crap that was put up on the board this week, it was tough finding some good numbers out there, kind of like finding an NFL game that doesn't involve a torn ACL.  Seriously, the amount of torn ACLs has gotten utterly ridiculous.  Before I get further off topic, here are this week's picks. 

First Down: Virginia Tech -4 at Boston College  12:00 PM EST

Beamer's boys are coming off a surprising loss to Duke, where the offense sputtered and only managed to put up 10 points.  Luckily for the Hokies, BC has given up points to everyone, surrendering at least 20 points in each of their last five contests.  Additionally, Logan Thomas and Beamer love playing the Golden Eagles, as they've beaten them each of the past five years.  You know the VT defense will always come to play, and they've been a very impressive unit so far this season, having only given up more than 20 points twice.   I'm banking that Logan Thomas and his offensive teammates can't play any worse than they did last week, so I'll lay the points with the staunch defense while the number posted on the board is the lowest it's been all week.

Second Down: Nebraska -5.5 vs. Northwestern  3:30 PM EST

Nebraska will be out to lay the wood this week after being upset last week in Minnesota, and there isn't a better team to do it against than Northwestern.  Northwestern has completely melted down since losing to Ohio State, as they've lost every game since that heartbreaker.  The Cornhuskers were rolling before losing to the Gophers, as they had won three straight, covering the spread every time.  Though the last two games between these two squads have been close ones, I expect the Huskers to get back on track this week.  Take the points and Big Red at a much better line than the opener of -7.

Third Down: Arkansas +8.5 vs. Auburn  6:00 PM EST

Raise your hand if you had Auburn as Alabama's biggest threat in the SEC West this season...Yeah, that's right, no one did.  People have been heaping praise on the Tigers after their upset win in College Station, but plenty of teams are capable of beating the Aggies and their non-existent defense this season.  Look, I'm not saying Auburn is a bad team, or that it got lucky against Johnny Football.  What I am saying is that there is no way they should be favored by more than a touchdown on the road against an Arkansas team that is coming off a bye week.  The off week was exactly Bielema and his boys needed after getting throttled in three consecutive contests, and they should come out fired up to pull the upset against the newly crowned Top 10 team.  Arkansas may win this one outright, but if they lose, it will be by a narrow margin.

Fourth Down: Miami +22 at Florida State  8:00 PM EST 

All week long people have been slamming the Hurricanes, describing them as the new Texas Tech, aka the most overrated team in the Top 10.  After all, they nearly lost their last two games against the lowly squads of Wake Forest and North Carolina.  If you looked at only those two games, and combined them with how well Famous Jameis is playing, of course this game looks like a blowout.  However, the Hurricanes are still an undefeated ball club, and you have to think that they've been looking ahead to this contest for the past two weeks.  Things can get pretty weird in rivalry games, and this is a gigantic number to post for a rivalry game featuring two undefeated ball clubs.  I don't think Miami can win this one outright, but I certainly think they can keep it within three touchdowns.  Give me the massive amount of points an "Da U." 

Extra Point: Arizona OVER 41.5 Points  3:30 PM EST 

California can't stop the run, as they are rated 90th in the country in Rushing Defense.  Arizona loves to run, as they have the 10th best Rushing Offense in the country, thanks in part to the best back in the country, Ka'deem Carey.  If you look at California's box scores this season, it's blatantly obvious that this defense can't stop anyone.  They've given up over 30 points in every contest, and have conceded over 41 in six of them.  On the other side, the Wildcats have gotten hot lately, as they have scored over 31 points in each of their last three games.  Arizona will pound the ball at will, and they should score just about every time in what should be a high-scoring matchup. 

The Four To Score: 16-16-1

Extra Points: 3-4-1

Overall: 19-20-1