The Four To Score: Week One

Big Lines, Slim Pickins 

The Four To Score is back for another season which will surely be filled with narrow escapes, hold-your-breath moments, and inevitable bad beats. Despite some rough patches in the middle of last season, we capped the year after Week 13 with a record of 30-30-1, going 5-0 that final week. This time around, Chad West, CPA, will be going toe-to-toe with me all season long, adding his thoughts on the weeks spreads and totals to the mix. We'll have running totals for the season at the bottom, giving you ample opportunity to heap praise upon or give us grief should we be doomed to mediocrity. 

While we're happier about the return of CFB than Nick Saban is about being engaged in a "process," Week 1 always proves to be a difficult task. With many games featuring heavily mismatched teams comes many giant lines, making it difficult to mix-and-match winners between the few premier matchups and the sure-to-be blowouts. After consulting the tarot cards, Brent Musburger's not-so-secret gambling diary, and Switzer's stash of Sooner Magic, here are this week's picks.

First Down: Arkansas +21 @ Auburn, 4 PM EST (Garrett)

After their "shock the nation" campaign last year, I'll be looking to go against the Auburn Tigers in a lot of spots this season. Don't get me wrong, I love watching what Gus Malzahn draws up on offense every Saturday. That being said, after going 12-2 against the number last season, you can expect to see some inflated numbers in Auburn games this season, and this appears to be one of them. In last season's matchup, the Tigers covered on the road as 7-point favorites in November, but the Razorbacks only lost by 18 points SU despite losing the turnover battle 3-0. Auburn only beat one SEC opponent by 21+ last season, and while the Razorbacks are by no means contenders in the West, they do have a stable of very good running backs that can eat up yards and control the clock. Auburn should start the season 1-0 after this weekend, but if Bielema's boys can limit the turnovers, they should be well within the big number posted in Vegas.

Penn State +2 @ UCF (in Ireland),  7:30 AM EST (Chad)
George O'Leary and his Central Florida Knights are coming off of a banner year and they have put in the work over the past few years to have sustained success. However, I still see a significant talent discrepancy between the Knights and Penn State. James Franklin took some marginal talent at Vanderbilt and made them a winner, and he inherits a Nittany Lions roster with plenty of talent. UCF has 9 returning defensive starters, but Penn State returns Zach Zwinak (989 rushing yards in 2013), Bill Belton (800 rushing yards in 2013) returning, as well as (deserving) media darling quarterback Christian Hackenberg. That kind of fire power returning will be a huge asset in week one. Penn State wins this one outright.

Second Down: Ole Miss -10 vs Boise State, 8 PM EST THURSDAY (Garrett) 

At first glance, most people would probably look at this line and think the only team to back would be Boise State. Remember, it wasn't too long ago that this team was knocking off a big opponent in a season opener every year: 2009 vs. Oregon, 2010 vs. Virginia Tech, and 2011 vs. Georgia. Factor in those memories with an Ole Miss team that isn't an SEC powerhouse by any means, and you start to wonder how in the hell the Rebels are favored by ten. However, the Broncos are a shade of what they used to be, evidenced by their showings against the good, physical teams on their schedule last year: Washington, BYU, and Oregon State. Boise lost each of those games by more than two touchdowns, and gave up an average of over 200 yards on the ground. Ole Miss should be able to run the ball behind their massive offensive line, and WR Laquon Treadwell has to be licking his chops when he looks across the line and sees a 5'9" corner matching up against him. The Rebels should score early and often, starting the season off with a double-digit win.

Texas A&M +10.5 @ South Carolina, 6:00 PM EST Thursday (Chad)

No Johnny, No Covers? 

I'm already on the record this season calling for South Carolina to slip back a little this season, and this Thursday night line is too good for me to pass up. I couldn't think more highly of Aggie Head Coach Kevin Sumlin, or his young Offensive Coordinator Jake Spavital. A&M will score plenty this year. However, this one will be a relatively low scoring affair. South Carolina will run the ball and attempt to hit some big plays off play action (my guess is against a Cover 4 look in the 2nd Quarter). The Aggies will attempt to pound the rock with talented backs Tra Carson and Brandon Williams to steal one on the road. South Carolina likely comes away with the victory, but A&M and Kevin Sumlin will keep it competitive. 

Third Down: UTEP +8 vs New Mexico, 8 PM EST Thursday (Garrett)

In a game that surely isn't on many people's "Must Watch"list, the Miners should be a very live dog on the road. Last year's game hung around UTEP -6/-7, and sixty minutes weren't enough to separate these two teams, with UNM winning in overtime. All that has changed between these two teams is the venue, yet the spread has been flipped on its head! It's nearly impossible for the Miners to be worse on defense than they were last season, and if they show marginal improvement in this contest, the Miners will have a very good chance to win this one outright.

Florida State -18 vs. Oklahoma State (Arlington, TX) 8PM EST (Chad)

It could be a long day for the Pokes if this guy gets rolling. 

This pick isn't an indictment of Oklahoma State, although they do have to replace 7 starters on both sides of the ball. This pick is all about how absolutely loaded Florida State is on both sides of the ball. FSU won't struggle to score, and they have some absolutely freakish talent on defense. This line is towards the upper bounds of what I think will happen here, but I'm confident nonetheless. Look for a young Oklahoma State team to hang tough for a quarter and a half, then FSU will blow the doors off Jerry's Stadium. FSU by three scores. 

Fourth Down: Ohio State -16 vs. Navy, 12 PM EST (Garrett)

This game got all the way up to -17 before Braxton Miller went down, and then bookmakers adjusted down to the -12.5 to -14 area, only to see the number climb to -16 again. Ohio State's defense will have had plenty of time to prepare for Navy's option attack, and their massive front four should wreak havoc on Navy's offensive line. Though losing Miller hurts, JT Barrett will have had a full two weeks to get acclimated as the starter, and the Buckeyes offense still put up points last season when Kenny Guiton filled in for Miller. The Buckeyes will be out to prove a point this week, and should be good for the cover.

LSU -4 vs. Wisconsin (in Houston, TX) 9 PM EST (Chad)
I know, I know, "Gary Anderson always covers." I'm not going to argue against that trend, and I don't have much to go on here other than gut. LSU has rarely gotten blown out under Defensive Coordinator John Chavis, and Wisconsin isn't exactly going to try and hang half a hundred. Both of these team will want to play slow and control the clock, and something tells me the Mad Hatter has some magic up his sleeve this Saturday. This one will be close, and can go either way, but give me the Bayou Bengals in Houston. 

Extra Point: Ole Miss OVER 31.5 pts, 6 PM EST THURSDAY(Garrett)

As I hit on earlier, Ole Miss should be able to score at will against Boise State. The Rebels will have major advantages on the outside with their WRs against short CBs. Combine that with a rushing attack that averaged 190 yards a game last season, and I can't see the Rebels scoring less than 35 in this one. Hotty Toddy, y'all.

There is some creepy and bad amateur football this weekend

Purdue v. Western Michigan UNDER 54.5 pts, 12 PM EST (Chad)
Nobody is going to watch this game because there's no reason to. I can't see either one of these teams lighting the world on fire, and this number is high enough I can't pass it up. Taking the under in modern college football is always dangerous, but this pillow fight likely ends under 50 total points.