2014 College Football Preview: Big XII

Sooners Defense Shines in the Land of Offense

For the first time in a long time the Big XII is underrated. Since the geniuses in Belmont Hall nuked this conference back to a poor man's Southwest Conference with the Longhorn Network (we all agree that was a bad idea now, right?), BIG XII fans have had to take the "Dan Beebe" and "Little Ten" barbs from our friends and the national media lying down. Thanks in part to OU playing the best game a BIG XII team has played since 2011 in last year's Sugar Bowl, this conference has some credibility nationally heading into 2014. However, the national media still isn't talking about this conference like they should. This league is deeeep. Everywhere you look there is talent, competent coaching, and enthusiasum (except in Lawrence, of course). Sure, there are existing heirarchies. Oklahoma and Texas will always be the big dogs, but an emerging upper middle class programs like Baylor, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State are starting to threaten the status quo. Even teams like TCU, Texas Tech, and West Virginia have showed recent flashes of impressive talent and long term upward mobility that should keep coaches in Norman and Austin up late into the night. Here's how we see things going in the most wide open, and least predictable, Power 5 conference:

The Bonafide Contenders

1. Oklahoma: It's hard not to put the Sooners out front to begin the year. Big Game Bob was long thought to be dead by the land thief faithful, especially after absolutely brutal performances against Texas and Baylor during the middle of the 2013 season. Then, a cold ass winter's morning in Stillwater changed everything. Whether you attribute it to an all too predictable appearance from Squinky, or Bob Stoops sneaking into Barry Switzer's house to steal his reserve supply of "Sooner Magic" (which is really just whiskey spiked with Everclear), the Sooners beat a talented Pokes squad and stole a BCS bid. The rest is history. Big Game Bob and has returned, and he is on a war march against the ESPN powered SEC death machine. Be careful what you wish for, Bobby--the Sooners are loaded and ready to make a run at the inagural College Football playoff. Mike Stoops has overseen vast improvements in the Sooner defense over the past two seasons, and with front seven stalwarts Charles Tapper, Erik Striker, and Jordan Phillips returning along with some young talent in the secondary, look for that trend to continue. In a conference known for it's offense, the OU defense will separate the Sooners from the rest of the pack. On offense, too much of the attention is being put on Knight and a potential dark horse Heisman run. This Sooner team will be a run first outfit, with tailbacks Keith Ford, Alex Ross, and Freshman Adonis Samaje Perine running behind a veteran offensive line. The schedule also lines up favorably for OU with tilts against Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State occuring in Norman (a mid-November date with the Texas Tech Fighting Goslings seems ominous, however). The Sooners don't need Knight to be the 'Bama slayer every week. If Knight plays within the offense and stays healthy, look for OU to be the cream of the Big XII and receive a spot in the playoff. We'll see how much of Switzer's secret stash Bobby's got left if the Sooners get matched up with the SEC Champion in Dallas.

 Switzer looks like he's had plenty

2. Baylor:  Like Art Briles' cornpone charm, there's not much doubt that Baylor is here to stay as a Big XII power. Briles has done a remarkable job getting the Bears into the perma-contender category, and are always amongst the country's elite on offense. This years Bears will once again be capable of scoring (unlike most of the students in Waco. Public School has it's benefits, you know). Bryce Petty is the real deal, and he will once again put up Playstation numbers getting the ball to receivers Antwan Goodley and Levi Norwood. Despite the departures of the speedy Lache Seastrunk and massive Cyril Richardson, the Bears will once again be a power team running the football, as Shock Linwood proved as a freshman he is capable of carrying the load. So what's new in Waco? Defense. Art Briles has silently assembled an impressive front seven that gives the Bears the potential to repeat as conference Champion. Bryce Hager is a tackling machine, and Briles has recruited massive, strong lineman to keep bodies off of him (the most important one being Nose Andrew Billings, a weight room legend before he stepped on campus in Waco). However, the player that should most excite Baylor fans is junior Defensive End Shawn Oakman, an absolute freak who seems like a created player on Madden. 6-9 280? Moves more like a fast linebacker than an NBA Power Forward? He can't be real, can he? I assure you he is real. Terrifingly so. If Phil Bennett uses this guy correctly, look out--he will be in the conversation for the big time national defensive awards, a spot in the first round of next year's NFL Draft, and the reason Trevor Knight suddenly develops a stutter on November 2nd. The Trio of Oakman, Hager, and Billings will anchor a solid Bears Defense and help keep Baylor in the conversation for the Big XII title, and just maybe a playoff birth. The Bears seem to lack a little in the back half of the secondary necessary to knock off the Sooners, but Briles' Bears will not merely be an also-ran.

Shawn Oakman will be a menace for the Bears this season.

The Volatile Second-Tier

3. Texas: Gone are the days of endless sideline clapping, worries of getting blown out in Dallas every year no matter how much talent was dressed in burnt orange, and the constant use of the phrase "scares you to death." The overdue and much-needed change in leadership many Longhorns fans had been clamoring for finally came to fruition in January with the arrival of Charlie Strong to The Forty Acres following Mack Brown's exit.

Texas fans will be praying to deities you can't even find on the Internet to keep David Ash healthy. 

Since landing in Austin, Chuck has been focused on changing the mentality of the program, getting rid of the country club vibes that had plagued it for years. No more saying "we're tough"...Charlie Strong and his players are going to let their product on the field show it. While this team promises to be physical and aggressive (see: S&C Coach Pat Moorer), there are lingering questions that make it difficult to say with confidence that Texas can compete with Baylor and Oklahoma for the crown. Can QB David Ash and LB Jordan Hicks stay healthy for an entire season to lead their respective units? Outside of soon-to-be-playing-on-Sundays Quandre Diggs, who will step up in the secondary? Will Daje Johnson finally be the consistent, explosive performer Texas fans have longed for since Ramonce Taylor was lining up all over the field? Who in the hell is going to reliably catch passes outside of the currently injured Jaxon Shipley, and Marcus Johnson? When you combine all of these questions (and the countless more Longhorns fans can talk to you about, if you're not into the whole brevity thing) with a tough schedule that features home games against BYU and Baylor, UCLA and OU at neutral sites, and very tough road trips to Manhattan and Lubbock (the Bermuda Triangle of National Championship Dreams), it just isn't logical to say this team can finish the season at the top of the bill. They'll most certainly compete, and are more than capable of beating Baylor, Oklahoma, and UCLA on any given night, but the consistency needed to win a championship will more than likely not be where Strong thinks it will be in the coming years.

4. TCU: As we touched on in our first blog of the season, we think the Horned Frogs are due for a big bounce-back year after going 4-8 last season. There is some reason for concern, as Gary Patterson had hoped that Texas A&M transfer Matt Joeckel would taking the starting QB job from Trevone Boykin, as Boykin's talents would better serve TCU at RB or WR. Further adding to Patterson's perma-frown, Joeckel hasn't won the job outright, as Patterson recently stated that both players will see time under center in the season opener.

The inspiration for Katy Perry's "Roar"

Despite the question marks at QB, TCU's defense can keep them in every game. Anchored by future NFL talent DT Chucky Hunter, the Horned Frogs return eight starters from last year's defense that gave TCU a chance to win every game (excluding Texas) despite the offense being second-to-last in the conference in points scored (only Kansas scored less, as both were only teams in conference with less than 200 points in 9 games). By our count, there are seven "sure wins" on the schedule this year, and if the offense can show up against the conference powerhouses, there is no doubt that this team COULD get to nine or ten wins. We'll know whether this team can wreak havoc in the conference race early, as TCU opens up conference play at home against Oklahoma on Oct. 4th, and at Baylor on Oct. 11th. Go 1-1 in those two contests, and TCU could control it's own destiny the rest of the season if the chips fall their way.

5. Kansas State: Unlike Texas Tech, you know what you're going to get from Bill Snyder's squad every year: a team that, despite not having anywhere near as much talent as other teams in the conference, is extremely well-coached, fundamentally sound, and will not beat itself. Just look at last year's defensive unit. The Wildcats only brought two starters back on defense in 2013, and only gave up .7 more points per game than in 2012. Based on the results he's achieved using recruiting hand-me-downs and JUCO transfers, we're convinced Snyder could build a skyscraper out of toothpicks.

The Wizard of Manhattan

That being said, if the Wildcats are going to take a step forward following last year's 8-5 campaign, they are going to need much more consistency from starting QB Jake Waters. Since Colin Klein took the reigns of the offense against Texas in 2010, teams have known what to expect from the Wildcats offense: running the ball, running the ball, and more running the ball. Despite losing Klein, Bill Snyder stuck to K-State's bread and butter, running the ball 72% of the time the Wildcats were on offense last year. When Waters was asked to throw last season, fans had no idea what to expect. He struggled mightily at times, completing less than 50% of his passes four times against conference opponents, including a 6-15 performance against Baylor, and going 10-24 against TCU later in the season. Following the close victory over TCU, he resembled a Big XII quarterback, evidenced by his numbers in the bowl win over Michigan (21-27, 271, 3 TD, 0 INT), and the close loss to Oklahoma (17-29, 348, 3 TD, 2 INT). Now that the job is his alone (Daniel Sams transferred in offseason) we should see more consistency from Waters. K-State will go as Waters goes, as the quality opponents on their schedule will load the box, forcing Waters to beat them by throwing the ball, which should delight star WR Tyler Lockett.  

6. Texas Tech: Over the past decade, no team has better personified the Big XII nature of "wide open and least predictable" than the Red Raiders. You know Tech is going to put up points and throw for as many yards as there are co-eds who would throw themselves at Kliff Kingsbury, but when it comes to accurately predicting which games the team will win, you're more likely to hit a triple-20 on a dartboard after downing seven margaritas from Chimy's than peg which team will show up every week. Last year was the perfect example. Hopes were high in Lubbock after Tech started 7-0 even though fans had no clue as to which quarterback would be under center every series. Then they got boat-raced in their last five games against the better teams of the Big XII, despite having two very winnable contests at home against Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Left for dead, many figured the late trend to continue in the Holiday Bowl against the high-powered offense of Arizona State, as the Sun Devils were favored by two touchdowns in Vegas. All Tech did was flip the spread, winning easily after jumping out to an early 21-point lead.

Beyonce is BAE to Kliff. Kliff is BAE to Tech co-eds. 

Much like last year, it's extremely hard to get a grasp on how good this team will be. Like every year with Tech, you start off by thinking this team should up points in bunches, with offensive mastermind Kingsbury drawing up the plays for returning QB Davis Webb, who threw for 20 TDs last season and had a monster performance in the Holiday Bowl. Then you remember the Red Raiders lost their top two pass-catchers from last year, as all-world TE Jace Amaro and WR Eric Ward are no longer roaming that insanely large campus (seriously, Texas Tech's campus is never-ending, as whoever built it thought it would be a grand idea to have a minimum of fifteen football fields between every building). You look at the defensive depth chart and see a ton of upper-classmen, but then remember that only four starters return, and that Tech's defense gave up over 200 yards per game on the ground last season. Turn your attention to the schedule, and at first glance it looks favorable, as both Texas and Oklahoma will have to venture to Lubbock in November. Given their penchant for upsetting these teams when they have thoughts of playing for a National Championship (2002 vs. #4 Texas, 2008 vs. #1 Texas, 2011 @ #3 Oklahoma as 28 point underdogs), it's not a stretch to see them upsetting one of the two this year, but you can just as easily envision them getting beaten soundly in both games. Just as easily as they could surprise teams and finish 3rd in the conference this year, they could also underwhelm and finish 7th. Until Kingsbury assembles something resembling a defense in Lubbock, it's unwise to project Tech as anything but a middle-tier team.

7. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys shouldn't have lost a game last year, with poor performances against West Virginia and hated in-state rival Oklahoma being the only blemishes on the Pokes' regular season ledger. Despite last year's disappointment, Mike Gundy has done an unbelievable job in Stillwater the past decade. Gundy has turned this team into a conference title contender year in and year out, but Gundy's bunch will not be in the hunt for a Big XII crown this year. OSU only returns 4 starters on each side of the ball, and will sorely miss the contributions of Justin Gilbert, Daytawion Lowe, and Shaun Lewis on defense. Despite key departures on offense, the Cowboys have proven to be consistently capable of fielding potent offenses in Gundy's tenure, and the second year for Offensive Coordinator Mike Yurcich shouldn't be any different. JW Walsh has had his ups and downs during his first two years in Stillwater, but he has shown enough magic to prove capable of making plays when he needs to. Playmakers Desmond Roland and Tyreek Hill will provide the occasional spark, but in the end the Cowboys won't have enough fire power on offense, experience on defense, or reprieves from Squinky to avoid being smack dab in the middle of the conference. The Pokes better hope Chief Osceola is happy with the sacrifice he is afforded Week 1, and spares the Cowboys any significant injuries, or this team could plummet even lower than the disappointing middle of the pack finish we have them projected for.

Squinky may have a larger presence than usual in Stillwater (recently featured on Biography's "Hoarders: Cigarettes, '90's Chevy Silverados, and Dispair.") this season.

"Staying above water, but only barely"

8. West Virginia: It seemed like the perfect hire. A whiskey chugging, all black wearing, gambling-addicted offensive genius coming to Morgantown to get the Mountaineers over the 9 win hump. Things went according to plan in Dana Holgorsen's first season as the head coach at West Virginia, with the 'neers winning the Big East and absolutely dismantling Clemson in the Orange Bowl. It looked like Holgo was the perfect coach to bring the Mountaineers into the turbo charged big XII, but Dana's first two years helming the Mountaineers in the BIG XII cannot be characterized but anything other than a disappointment. Holgo's teams have had some bad bounces and tough breaks, but they have been more competitive than people realize. 2013 brought a 1-point, double overtime home loss to TCU, and an equally demoralizing 1-point home loss to eventual conference co-champion Oklahoma (which featured a yards orgy to the tune of 400+ yards from Tavon Austin). 2014 wasn't any better, with home overtime losses to Texas and Iowa State. Considering how competitive this team has been the past two years, the return of steady senior Clint Trickett, and Holgo's offensive acumen there is reason for optimism in Morgantown. Mr. Everything back Charles Sims has taken his talents to the league, but the Mountaineers return a bevy of playmakers, including Dreamius Smith, Wendall Smallwood, Mario Alford, and Daikel Shorts. Pitt transfer  running back Russel Shell will also contribute immediately, with Holgo finding ways to turn Shell into a Charles Sims clone. Not only should the offense be more consistent for the Mountaineers this season, the defense should resemble something other than a broken flood levvee. While not the Defensive Coordinator by title, former Penn State DC Tom Bradley comes to Morgantown as an Associate Head Coach with years of experience coaching competent defenses in State College. His influence is much needed, and should help keep opposing teams total yards and points out of the stratoshpere. Despite all the reasons for optimism--and the Mountaineers will be a much better football team than they were last year--the rest of the league also got better. The Mountaineers simply can't get over the hump in their new conference, with other middle class programs like Baylor and Oklahoma State making massive strides over the past 5 years. Look for the Mountaineers mimic their coach at a wedding with an open bar-- Aggressive, Eager to Score, but in the end not enough stamina to finish to finish any better than the bottom half of the league.

 "Excuse me sir, the groom has instructed me to escort you out. He believes your behavior is beginning to make the other guests uncomfortable."

 "You took of your pants and tried to exchange underwear with all the bridemaids, except the hefty gal, who you called "Miss Piggy."

 "No, I won't tell him you called him that, and we don't take bets here."

 "My name is Tom, not 'Drink Butler,' or 'Sweet Cheeks' and no you can't have another BOTTLE of Jim Beam, you are cut off. They should not have served you the first two."

 "I'm just as God made me, sir. Now, if you will please put your pants back on and follow me, we have arranged for transportation back to your hotel."

"We are 30 Miles from anything that would resemble a navigable body water. There is no way you came here in your boat."

"Okay, maybe there is. I... I... Let me get my manager."

9. Iowa State: Like West Virginia, this team was way better last season than people realize. The 3-9 Cyclones suffered three devastingly close in conference losses (Texas by 1, Tech by a touchdown, and TCU by 3). It's hard to criticize anything about Paul Rhoads' tenure in Ames, having led the Cyclones to three bowl appearances as arguably the least recource-rich football program in the BIG XII. Rhoads continues to do things to improve the Cyclones and grow the profile of his program. This offseason's biggest move was the addition of Verbally Abusive the Hut, more commonaly referred to by his human name, "Mark Mangino." If half the ancedotes you hear thrown around about Mangino are true, he may not be a candidate for Man of the Year. This may or may not be because on the Hut's home planet they have no time for common courtesy or cardio. One thing is absolutely undisputable--Mark Mangino can flat out coach (far better than his brother and arch rival, Hoagie the Hut, more commonly referred to by his human name, "Charlie Weis." Seriously, what kind of Intergallactic scandal is Kansas football involved in?) Mangino was a part of the Miracle in Manhattan under Bill Snyder and Stoops' first 3 years in Norman before getting the chance to run his own program at Kansas. Mangino somehow made Kansas (yes, Kansas!) sort of passable as a football program, highlighted by a 12-1 2007 season that ended in an Orange Bowl (yes, Kansas!) victory over Virgina Tech. Iowa State returns some pieces on offense that could make this team fun to watch. Quen Bundrage and Aaron Wimberly can make plays for this team in the right situations, which their new coordinator will be eager to put them in. Mangino's presence in Ames should be exciting to Cyclones fans, but until the talent level rises on both sides of the ball at Iowa State, this team will be the little engine that could--competitive, hard working, but not capable of playing with the conference's upper crust (unless it's one of those magical Thursday nights in Ames).

 Verbally Abusive the Hut with his dear friend, King Obie the Hut.

Deep in Ramsay Bolton's dungeon

Calm down, Charlie. No chance in hell Ramsay gives you that sausage...

DFL. Kansas: There are basement-dwellers, and then there is Kansas. Given how far the Jayhawks have fallen since their trip to the 2008 Orange Bowl, it feels like it has been a century since Todd Reesing was slinging the rock all over the park in Lawrence. Last summer, head coach Charlie Weis referred to his team as a "pile of crap." That team went on to win three games, and only one was against a conference foe (West Virginia). This year, Charlie has told KU fans they'll have a reason to attend games in October and November, but when you look at the schedule, the scale tilts heavily toward the Jayhawks not reaching their goal of making a bowl game. Outside of their home opener against SE Missouri State, it's extremely hard to find any other game to mark off as a "sure win", especially after losing their top two returning RBs (the lone productive unit at Kansas in recent years) to season-ending injuries. Keep in mind that outside of the win against West Virginia, Kansas lost every other conference game by double digits, and only two of those were by less than twenty points! Maybe they can pull off an upset against either Iowa State or at West Virginia, but all signs point to this team being at, or underneath last year's win total of three games. Sorry, Jayhawks fans, your squad is destined to be the Reek of the Big XII yet again.

"I...am....Rock....Chalk....Reek"

Offensive Player of the Year: QB Bryce Petty, Baylor
Every time we tried to find a player that could take down the preseason favorite from Baylor, we found a question mark or reason that lead us right back to the senior quarterback in Waco. Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray are both incredible running backs for the Texas Longhorns, but they will split carries all season long, hurting their individual numbers.  Davis Webb could put up crazy numbers in Lubbock in his second year under Kingsbury, but Petty's numbers will likely be just as good, and Baylor will probably have the better record at season's end, putting Petty ahead of Webb.  After throwing for 4,000+ yards with a TD-INT ratio of 32:3 last season, and with there being no signs of Baylor slowing their offensive pace down this year, this is Petty's award to lose.

Defensive Player of the Year: DE Cedric Reed, Texas (Garrett); DE Shawn Oakman, Baylor (Derek)
We're split on this one, but agree that a defensive end will take home the award, given the increased potential for sacks in the pass-happy Big XII. Cedric Reed had a monster year for the Longhorns last season that included 79 tackles, 10 sacks, and 9 tackles for loss. Some doubt whether he'll be as effective without Jackson Jeffcoat on the opposite end, but with lots of talent returning on the defensive line, Cedric Reed should still be able to get in the backfield plenty of times this season.

Shawn Oakman is not a name being mentioned by many reporters or fans heading into the 2014 season, and this pick may look quite foolish in retrospect. That said, I'm a sucker for athletic freaks, and Oakman definitely fits the bill. He was occasionally dominant last season, and there's no reason to believe his production will decrease this year. Look for Oakman to have some Clowney-esque highlights throughout the Fall, to be the cream of an impressive crop of Big XII defensive lineman inlcuding Texas' Cedric Reed and OU's Charles Tapper, and to garner some national buzz come awards season.