Praise Baby Jesus...College Football is Back
That feeling is in the air once again...BBQ grills are being fired up, college co-eds are cleaning their beer funnels while also stocking up on boot-size bottles of Fireball, and Steve Spurrier has been working on his visor throw. Yes, the 2014 College Football season is finally upon us. With the dawn of this new season, we've decided to add another fantastic writer to our group, in similar fashion to the lead up for the World Cup. Chad West, CPA, will be bringing his talents and wealth of CFB knowledge to the blogosphere here at Rushing The Field. His obsession with this sport is borderline clinically insane, but that is to be expected with a kid who was raised as a Sooner and later converted to a Longhorn. Expect to see posts from Chad displaying his never-ending love for The Old Ball Coach, and his disdain for all things related to Mack Brown and the "NFL Syndrome."
Over the coming days, we'll be providing you an in-depth look into the nation's wildest conference, the Big XII. Additionally, we'll be posting our thoughts and reactions every week during the season, and The Four To Score will be returning for all the degenerates out there. To get the juices flowing, here are our ten biggest thoughts and predictions about the upcoming season.
1. Tons of people across the country had Ohio State projected to make the first ever College Football Playoff. Does the loss of Braxton Miller completely ruin the hopes and dreams of the Buckeye faithful?
Garrett: Any time you lose a player who passed for 2,000 yards and rushed for 1,000 more in the previous season, it's going to hurt your program. Add in the fact that Braxton is a senior leader in the locker room that many pundits considered to be a contender for the Heisman, and most fan bases across the country would already call the season lost before it has even begun. However, this is not the end of the world for Buckeyes fans when you consider the circumstances in play. Sure, JT Barrett doesn't have the experience of Braxton Miller, as he hasn't played a down of football since his senior year in high school. Yet he was a very highly touted recruit during his time in Wichita Falls, and some people in Texas considered him to be the best high school quarterback in the state, ahead of current University of Texas backup QB Tyrone Swoopes. He's not the same threat in the running game, but he's a polished passer who is better than Miller was as a freshman. Throw in 11 returning starters to surround Barrett with experience, plus a very favorable schedule that doesn't include Nebraska, Iowa, or Wisconsin, and you're looking at a team that will probably still be favored in every game except for their trip to East Lansing. Their status as a favorite for the playoff surely has diminished, but don't be surprised if this team is still in the conversation in November.
Bold Prediction: JT Barrett leads Ohio State to double digit wins, and Braxton Miller never plays again for the Buckeyes, instead deciding to turn pro.
Chad: Losing a proven superstar like Braxton Miller is tough for an Urban Meyer squad that many thought would make the playoff. However, I think the commentariat is overreacting. Losing Miller hurts from a leadership standpoint, but Meyer is an absolute magician when it comes to getting quarterbacks to produce in his system (save for that last year at Florida, when he was practically tranquilized with Nitrates and Zoloft). Let's remember the job Kenny Guyton did for this team as a fill-in over the past two years. I believe Meyer will have J.T. Barrett ready to play and he will do a competent enough job of getting the ball to Ohio State's playmakers that the Buckeye Defense can carry this team to 9 wins. The three games now in serious doubt are Sept. 6th vs. Virginia Tech, Oct. 25th at Penn State, and Nov. 8 at Michigan State. That said, all of these games are winnable with Barrett under center, and I'd say two of them were very (very) losable with Braxton Miller under center (See Beamer Ball, Pat Narduzzi). In total, the loss of Braxton Miller takes Ohio State from a consensus top 5-6 conference title winning team with a great shot to make the playoff to something more like a top 15 team with a puncher's chance of winning the B1G and cracking the top 4.
2. Keeping with the theme of how important one player can be to a college team, which player is totally irreplaceable to his school?
Garrett: The obvious answer here is Marcus Mariota. Before injuring his knee against UCLA last season, he was a Heisman contender putting up video game numbers for the undefeated Ducks. Following the injury, Oregon lost their only two games of the season, ruining their BCS National Championship hopes. When you look at the Ducks' rushing statistics before and after the injury, Mariota's importance is glaringly apparent. In five of the games taking place before the injury, Oregon's run-heavy offense put up 300+ yards. Yet in the three games immediately following the injury, the Ducks were held under 200 yards rushing every game, and were held under 150 against both Utah and Stanford. Oregon will need Mariota healthy this season to have any chance at winning a national title.
Digging a bit deeper into the realm of college football, you could argue that Bo Wallace is more irreplaceable for the Ole Miss Rebels than Mariota is for the Ducks. In the two years preceding his arrival in Oxford, the Rebels won a combined six games. Since winning the starting job in 2012, he's lead Ole Miss to 15 wins and bowl games in both seasons under center. Delving into the numbers, he threw for just under 3,000 yards in 2012 as a sophomore, but then went over that number last season, throwing for over 300 yards in three of the Rebels' biggest games (Auburn, Texas A&M, LSU). Wallace has had some problems with throwing interceptions at crucial points in games, but when you look at what he's done as a whole for this team, and the dearth of experience behind him (two redshirt freshman), it's obvious that the Rebels' success rests squarely on the shoulders of Dr. Bo.
Chad: Jameis Winston is an obvious pick here, but with the impressive talent Jimbo Fisher has assembled at FSU it's not impossible to concieve of Air Bud playing quarterback for a playoff-caliber Seminole team. Brett Hundley at UCLA is absolutely indispensable if that team has any shot at the playoff. UCLA is a lower tier bowl team without Hundley.
The previous statement is bold, but imagine the Bruins playing Texas, Arizona State, Oregon, Washington, USC, and Stanford with the likes of Jerry Neuheisel as a signal caller. It's hard to see the Bruins winning more than two of those games without Hundley. All the Myles Jack/ Chuck Norris comparisons aside, the Bruins go from a legitimate playoff contender to a candidate for the Las Vegas Bowl without the country's most irreplacable player, Brett Hundley.
3. The start of every season begins with new faces leading different programs across the country. Which new coach will have the most success in his new landscape? Will any new coordinator have a major impact on his program?
Garrett: Steve Sarkisian should do well in his first season at USC, but given the lofty expectations Trojan fans have for their team every year, I think his successor at Washington will have the more "successful" season. Though major players Bishop Sankey, Keith Price, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins have moved on, Chris Petersen has inherited a Huskies program that is in infinitely better shape than Sarkisian found it in 2009. Petersen still has plenty of goods in the cupboard, as fourteen starters return, including the insanely gifted Shaq Thompson. Thompson has started 25 games as a linebacker/nickel back at Washington, but has also been given a look at running back ahead of this season. He won't be Bishop Sankey 2.0, but there is no reason to believe this kid can't be another Myles Jack. Joining him in the backfield will be QB Cyler Miles, who might be slightly behind Keith Price in the passing department, but is a much bigger threat with his legs, adding another dimension to the Washington attack. Perhaps the bigger contributing factor to believing Petersen will succeed in year one is the schedule...the Huskies get two of their three toughest games at home (Stanford and UCLA at home, Oregon on the road) and don't have to face their old coach and USC. Given the returning talent and favorable schedule, Washington will have a great chance at eclipsing last year's nine wins.
Chad: TCU was awful on Offense last year. The Horned Frogs topped 400 yards of total offense only 4 times, 9th in the high octane BIG XII and directly contributing to a dissapointing 4-8 season. But, thanks to Gary Patterson's perma-frown and the always compentent TCU defense, the Horned Frogs lost 4 of those 8 games by 4 points or less. Enter TCU's new Co-Offensive Coordinators: Doug Meacham and Sonnie Cumbie. Both these guys are young, but Meacham and Cumbie have worked under the most impressive offensive minds in football including Mike Leach, Dana Holgorsen, Mike Gundy, and Kliff Kingsbury. If this duo has learned half as much as I think they have while at Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, TCU is going to score more points, and show up in the win column alot more often in 2014. Look for the Frogs to win at least 8, and to make some surprising noise in a deep big XII conference.
4. Just as there new coaches, there are also talented, bright-eyed freshman lacing it up for the first time. Who will be the newcomer of the year?
Garrett: It's doubtful that he will lead LSU to a national title, a la Jameis Winston at FSU in 2013, but true freshman Leonard Fournette should have a huge season in Baton Rouge. The 6'1, 225 pound running back is essentially a grown-ass man at the ripe age of 19, as evidenced by his high school tape. With Zach Mettenberger gone, and LSU still unsettled as to who will start at QB in Week 1, you can bank on Les Miles having a penchant for pounding the rock all season long. Bolstering the likelihood of Fournette making a big splash in the SEC this year are the departures of the Tigers' top three rushers from last season, and the return of four starting offensive lineman. He will be splitting the lion's share of the carries with Kenny Hilliard, but don't be surprised if he takes control of the position by the end of the year, much like Adrian Peterson and Cedric Benson did in their first college seasons.
Chad: The hype surrounding Fournette is almost deafening at this point. I can't disagree here, especially considering the the play calling tendencies and the offensive line. The kid is set up for a special season. For the sake of parity, I will throw WR Speedy Noil of Texas A&M's name out there. I fell in love with Noil watching practices for the Under Armour All-American Game, struck by his speed and suprising physicality for a slightly built dude. Every word you hear out of Aggieland heaps effusive praise on Noil, and I think he will be a big time contributor to an Aggie offense breaking new starters in all over the place. If Noil returns punts and kicks look out--the Aggies will steal a game or two they have no business winning.
Bonus quasi-homer prediction: Oklahoma' Freshman Samaje Perine is the primary back in Norman by the time they travel to Dallas to play Texas the second weekend in October.
5. Which teams are destined to bounce back from sub-optimal seasons, and which programs are bound to take a few steps back?
Garrett: Hopefully Arizona State fans enjoyed last season, as Todd Graham's boys will come back down to earth this year. Last year's PAC 12 runner-up managed to achieve double-digit wins for the first time since 2007, but all signs point to 2014 being a very tough campaign for the Sun Devils. Graham has said that this year's offense is the best he's seen, but they are sure to struggle mightily on the other side of the ball. The Sun Devils return only two starters from a defense that was exposed by the better teams it faced last season. In the last five games of 2013, ASU's defense gave up an average of 443.8 yards per game, and also gave up over 400 yards earlier in the season against both Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Further hurting the unit is the departure of Will Sutton, as the mammoth DT will now be playing on Sundays for the Chicago Bears. The schedule does them no favors this year, as the Sun Devils will have to go to USC and Washington, while also facing UCLA, Stanford, and Notre Dame. Their season finale should also be a tough one, as Arizona will be out for blood, attempting to reclaim the Territorial Cup after getting embarrassed in Phoenix last year. Considering the brutal schedule and inexperienced defense, I don't see a way that the Sun Devils can match last year's win total.
Conversely, I expect a big turnaround from Will Muschamp and the Florida Gators. Beyond the simple notion that it can't get any worse than a 4-8 season that included a loss to Georgia Southern (who did not complete a single pass), there is a lot to like about this Florida team. First, you can expect Muschamp to field an extremely salty defense this season. Though their performance dropped off due to injuries (and lack of motivation) in the second half of the season after the wheels had come off the bus, this unit was arguably the best in the country through the first six games of the season. In those six contests, which included a close loss to LSU, the Gators only gave up 235.3 yards per game. Though some players have graduated or gone on to the NFL, 7 starters still return to anchor a defense that should look much more like the defense we saw the first half of last season. Switching to the other side of the ball, the offense won't be world-beaters by any means, but they should be a much better unit under new OC Kurt Roper. Roper's offenses at Duke gained over 400 yards per game the past two seasons, and with starting QB Jeff Driskel healthy again, Florida's offense should be more successful at moving the chains than they were last year, when three QBs took snaps because of injuries. Finally, while any SEC schedule is going to be tough, the Gators do get three of their toughest conference games at home, as Missouri, South Carolina, and LSU will all have to journey to The Swamp. I'll go on record and say that Muschamp gets at least eight wins this year, which should cool off the hot seat he's been sitting on since the end of last season.
Chad: This one hurts for me. I love Steve Spurrier. I think the Head Ball Coach is a national treasure worthy of his own holiday and visor-clad monument in D.C. That said, this year's South Carolina team is going to regress from where it was last season, despite a favorable schedule. Those touting the Gamecocks as playoff contenders point to experience across the offensive line, a stable of talented running backs, and a defense that returns 6 starters. Where they see 6 starters back, I see 5 key starters missing from 2013's unit, including 3 defensive lineman who will have productive NFL careers. I know it's the SEC and the Spurrier has recruited well over the past few cycles, but guys like Jadeveon Clowney, Chaz Sutton, and Stacey Quarles are nearly impossible to replace. South Carolina will miss their star-studded defensive line from 2013, and the 11 win mark for the first time since 2010.
My answer in number 3 tipped my hand here, but I really like TCU to have a huge turnaround, and potentially get in the mix in a wide open Big XII. TCU's offensive futility was noted above--the Horned Frogs couldn't run it or throw it, and that cost them in close games. Credit Gary Patterson for going out and getting two young coordinators who will bring TCU into the 21st century offensively. The schedule allows for a smooth transition to the new offense, unlike last season when the Frogs took their lumps from a talented but underachieving LSU team in week one. Look for TCU to double their win total from last year.
6. Can Jameis become the second repeat Heisman winner in history? If not, which player is most likely to strike the pose in December?
Garrett: Pretty boy Matt Leinart couldn't do it, despite only taking ballroom dance in his final season in Los Angeles. Tim Tebow couldn't do it, despite being God's second favorite son. Johnny Football couldn't do it, despite drinking beers and eating skittles (#BeerSkittlesHeisman). None of these college football legends have done it, and while Florida State faces a schedule far easier to maneuver through than a Publix security guard, the odds are stacked against Famous Jameis. His numbers this season will inevitably be compared to the gaudy numbers he put up last season, and if they don't make the playoff, you can pretty much put his chances of winning the award in the garbage, as the season will be deemed a failure compared to last season's national championship. Assuming Jameis doesn't defy the odds and join Archie Griffin in the back-to-back club, I think this is Marcus Mariota's award to lose. Before his injury last season, he was the clear favorite to lift the trophy in New York. His numbers on the year made Braxton Miller look like a chump, as he threw for over 3600 yards, had a TD:INT ratio of 31:4, and rushed for for 860 yards, the bulk of which came before the injury. If he was healthy all of last season, he likely would have joined Johnny Football and Vince Young in the 3,000 & 1,000 club. With a very favorable schedule that includes 8 home games, and only one tough away game (at UCLA), expect to see Mariota's stat sheet include some stupid numbers.
Chad: Nah. If Florida State is half as good as I think they are, he won't even get to play 'til half time this year, so Jameis may see his numbers decrease. Additionally, Carlos Williams as the full time starter at running back will also lead to some inter-team vote cannibalization a la Adrian Peterson and Jason White in '04. Finally, I think the totality of college footbal is suffering from Jameis fatigue. The rape allegation, the stolen crab legs (although I have legitimately forgotten to pay for an item before leaving a store. I have a college degree), and voters seeming reluctant to vote for the same guy twice (Archie Griffin, you ruined everything).
The best bet out there is on Oregon's Marcus Mariotta. He's going to put up the numbers, and I think Oregon's runs the table. Heisman voters are lazy. They will see Mariotta's gawdy numbers, that shiny zero in the Duck's loss column, and remember Jameis stole crab legs. Heisman: Mariotta.
7. Auburn came out of nowhere last season, only to surprise everyone and play for it all against the Florida State Seminoles in January. Which team is the most likely to be this year's Auburn?
Garrett: It may not be quite as big of a surprise as Auburn was last year, but Ole Miss is a dark horse team that could find themselves in the playoff if the ball bounces their way. Everyone is talking about Alabama, LSU, or Auburn coming out of the SEC West, but there are plenty of reasons to believe this team could make it to Atlanta in a year where no teams in the conference truly stand out. They have the most experienced quarterback in the league in Bo Wallace, and fourteen other starters returning, including nine on defense. Their schedule is a gift from the SEC God, Mike Slive: they dodge the traditional top three teams from the SEC East (Georgia, Florida, South Carolina), and divisional foes Auburn and Alabama will both have to journey to Oxford. Though they'll be an underdog in Baton Rouge in October, it's not too far-fetched to envision this team to lose only two games in the regular season, and win the division via tie-breaker. Defeat the SEC East Champion in Atlanta, and it's very hard to see a two-loss SEC Champion from the West getting left out of the playoff. A lot will have to go right for it to happen, but probably nowhere near as much as The Prayer at Jordan-Hare and Kick Six.
Chad: There's not an Auburn-esque turnaround to be had this year. If I had to pick an under the radar team to win a Big 5 Conference and sneak into the playoff it would be Nebraska. They have one of the best running backs in the country in Ameer Abdullah, sack machine Randy Gregory on defense, and a schedule that isn't horrible (although at Michigan State and at Wisconsin are hardly fun). A few good bounces here and there, and this team could be sitting at 11-1 and headed to the B1G Championship. If they win the B1G, I say they make the playoff. Plus, Pelini has sort of embraced being Pelini. Bring the cat out at the Spring Game? Wearing a skin tight alternate jersey to reveal it to the team? He's either losing the last small shred of sanity he had, or he has become the ultimate player's coach (this isn't a false binary, these are the only two options).
8. The playoff every fan has been screaming for has finally arrived. Who will be the inaugural four teams that play for it all?
Garrett: After much contemplation, and a lot of going back-and-forth these the four teams I believe will play for it all in January.
Florida State: Though I don't think Jameis will lift the Heisman for a second time, you have to think this team gets into the playoff given their schedule. A ton of talent returns to Tallahassee, and they face their three toughest opponents at home (Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida). The Seminoles will be huge favorites in every game they play, and when you take into account their status as defending national champion, you have to think they get into a playoff even if they have a slip-up, so long as its a close contest against a decent opponent.
Oregon: As previously stated, they have a favorable schedule and the best player in the country in Marcus Mariota. As long as they win the PAC 12 Championship game in December, they'll find themselves in the playoff even if they lose a regular season game to UCLA or Stanford.
Oklahoma: I'm sure Chad will have something to say about this selection, and while I have looked at all the reasons to keep this team out of the playoff, I have settled upon the sad likelihood that Bobby will have a great chance to win his second national championship. The Sooners defense should be the best in the Big XII, as LB Eric Striker will lead a very experienced unit that boasts 9 returning starters. QB Trevor Knight doesn't need to recreate his performance against Alabama last season in every game this year. As long as Knight can avoid the big mistakes and manage the game in his sophomore season, the Sooners should be able to ride their defense to an extremely successful year. They will be favored in every game they play this season, and their biggest challenger to the Big XII crown, Baylor, will have to travel to Norman this season, where Oklahoma is 57-4 over the past ten years.
South Carolina: Barring a meteor strike, it's almost a sure bet that there will be an SEC team in the playoff. No team from the SEC East has won the conference title since Florida back when Tebow-mania was in full swing, but the streak of SEC West dominance comes to an end this season. Despite losing the most talented player in college football, Spurrier will finally break through this season, as the South Carolina Gamecocks will advance to the College Football Playoff as the one-loss SEC Champion. They've won 11 games in each of the past three seasons, return 14 starters this year, and face a very manageable schedule that is devoid of Alabama and LSU. Spurrier's boys will only be an underdog when they travel to Auburn, but even that contest should be a winnable game for the Gamecocks. Take care of Georgia on September 13th, and even with a loss against Auburn, this team will be playing in Atlanta barring an upset.
Chad: I'm not even going to try to seed this thing, because crazy things can happen (hi, Auburn). Here are the four teams, in no particular order, that play in Jerry World for it all in January.
The first of my four slots goes to Florida State. I'm not even going to bother explaining this one. FSU is the most talented team in the country, and the only thing that will keep them from gaining a playoff birth is beating themselves. (btw, this team could totally pull a Florida state and lose to NC State or Boston College, just sayin').
My second slot goes to Alabama, in part because they're really good, in part because no matter what the SEC champion will be in the playoff. The SEC is deeeep this year, and I don't see anyone escaping without a loss. However, Alabama is once again the cream of the conference, and they'll win the league. But what if they have a loss? It doesnt matter. Seriously, a 9-3 Alabama team could limp into the SEC title game, win it, and the selection committee would take them. Whether it is true or not, the SEC has done a great job of convincing the country they are far and away the best conference. Therefore, the SEC champion, Alabama, will be in the playoff PAAWWWLLLL.
My third pick is Oregon. The Ducks should have played in a BCS bowl last year, and had the Sugar Bowl not selected Oklahoma it would be Oregon recieving all the hype the Sooners have been the beneficiary of since January. Only UCLA and Stanford stand in the Ducks way this year. UCLA is overrated, and Mark Helfrich's points blood machine will expose the Bruins. However, the Ducks still have a Stanford problem, having lost to Brian Shaw's bunch the last two seasons. Timing is everything in this sport, and the Ducks are in a more talent laden roster cycle than Stanford is this season. Unless Barry Sanders Jr. is the second coming of... well his dad, I guess, look for Oregon to win the Pac 12 and earn a playoff bid.
Ah, the final spot. I tried desperately to find different team to slot in here, but I'm going with Oklahoma. For starters, I'm not buying the Trevor Knight hype. He was fantastic in the Sugar Bowl, but that was his peak during a season of numerous deep valleys. However, the Sooners don't need Knight to be the 'Bama slayer very often, if at all this season. Before the Sugar Bowl, Knight was bad. He couldn't wrestle the startign job from now TE Blake Bell, and QB play cost the Sooners in their only to loses to Texas and Baylor. How did the Sooners win 11 with such a dumpster fire behind center for the first 12 games? Mike Stoops has the Sooner defense playing like it did 12 years ago, and well enough to carry the Sooners through much of the season. The defense will carry the mail through much of this season again, with the like of Charles Tapper, Erik Striker, and Jordan Phillips making up on of the country's best front 7's. The Sooners only need Trevor Knight and the rest of the offense to pick their spots and take care of the ball, which they are capable of. The Sooners will be favored in every game they play, and should run the table to nab a playoff spot.
Thanks for reading, and check back in the coming days and weeks for more material!
1. Tons of people across the country had Ohio State projected to make the first ever College Football Playoff. Does the loss of Braxton Miller completely ruin the hopes and dreams of the Buckeye faithful?
Garrett: Any time you lose a player who passed for 2,000 yards and rushed for 1,000 more in the previous season, it's going to hurt your program. Add in the fact that Braxton is a senior leader in the locker room that many pundits considered to be a contender for the Heisman, and most fan bases across the country would already call the season lost before it has even begun. However, this is not the end of the world for Buckeyes fans when you consider the circumstances in play. Sure, JT Barrett doesn't have the experience of Braxton Miller, as he hasn't played a down of football since his senior year in high school. Yet he was a very highly touted recruit during his time in Wichita Falls, and some people in Texas considered him to be the best high school quarterback in the state, ahead of current University of Texas backup QB Tyrone Swoopes. He's not the same threat in the running game, but he's a polished passer who is better than Miller was as a freshman. Throw in 11 returning starters to surround Barrett with experience, plus a very favorable schedule that doesn't include Nebraska, Iowa, or Wisconsin, and you're looking at a team that will probably still be favored in every game except for their trip to East Lansing. Their status as a favorite for the playoff surely has diminished, but don't be surprised if this team is still in the conversation in November.
Bold Prediction: JT Barrett leads Ohio State to double digit wins, and Braxton Miller never plays again for the Buckeyes, instead deciding to turn pro.
Chad: Losing a proven superstar like Braxton Miller is tough for an Urban Meyer squad that many thought would make the playoff. However, I think the commentariat is overreacting. Losing Miller hurts from a leadership standpoint, but Meyer is an absolute magician when it comes to getting quarterbacks to produce in his system (save for that last year at Florida, when he was practically tranquilized with Nitrates and Zoloft). Let's remember the job Kenny Guyton did for this team as a fill-in over the past two years. I believe Meyer will have J.T. Barrett ready to play and he will do a competent enough job of getting the ball to Ohio State's playmakers that the Buckeye Defense can carry this team to 9 wins. The three games now in serious doubt are Sept. 6th vs. Virginia Tech, Oct. 25th at Penn State, and Nov. 8 at Michigan State. That said, all of these games are winnable with Barrett under center, and I'd say two of them were very (very) losable with Braxton Miller under center (See Beamer Ball, Pat Narduzzi). In total, the loss of Braxton Miller takes Ohio State from a consensus top 5-6 conference title winning team with a great shot to make the playoff to something more like a top 15 team with a puncher's chance of winning the B1G and cracking the top 4.
2. Keeping with the theme of how important one player can be to a college team, which player is totally irreplaceable to his school?
Garrett: The obvious answer here is Marcus Mariota. Before injuring his knee against UCLA last season, he was a Heisman contender putting up video game numbers for the undefeated Ducks. Following the injury, Oregon lost their only two games of the season, ruining their BCS National Championship hopes. When you look at the Ducks' rushing statistics before and after the injury, Mariota's importance is glaringly apparent. In five of the games taking place before the injury, Oregon's run-heavy offense put up 300+ yards. Yet in the three games immediately following the injury, the Ducks were held under 200 yards rushing every game, and were held under 150 against both Utah and Stanford. Oregon will need Mariota healthy this season to have any chance at winning a national title.
Digging a bit deeper into the realm of college football, you could argue that Bo Wallace is more irreplaceable for the Ole Miss Rebels than Mariota is for the Ducks. In the two years preceding his arrival in Oxford, the Rebels won a combined six games. Since winning the starting job in 2012, he's lead Ole Miss to 15 wins and bowl games in both seasons under center. Delving into the numbers, he threw for just under 3,000 yards in 2012 as a sophomore, but then went over that number last season, throwing for over 300 yards in three of the Rebels' biggest games (Auburn, Texas A&M, LSU). Wallace has had some problems with throwing interceptions at crucial points in games, but when you look at what he's done as a whole for this team, and the dearth of experience behind him (two redshirt freshman), it's obvious that the Rebels' success rests squarely on the shoulders of Dr. Bo.
Chad: Jameis Winston is an obvious pick here, but with the impressive talent Jimbo Fisher has assembled at FSU it's not impossible to concieve of Air Bud playing quarterback for a playoff-caliber Seminole team. Brett Hundley at UCLA is absolutely indispensable if that team has any shot at the playoff. UCLA is a lower tier bowl team without Hundley.
The previous statement is bold, but imagine the Bruins playing Texas, Arizona State, Oregon, Washington, USC, and Stanford with the likes of Jerry Neuheisel as a signal caller. It's hard to see the Bruins winning more than two of those games without Hundley. All the Myles Jack/ Chuck Norris comparisons aside, the Bruins go from a legitimate playoff contender to a candidate for the Las Vegas Bowl without the country's most irreplacable player, Brett Hundley.
3. The start of every season begins with new faces leading different programs across the country. Which new coach will have the most success in his new landscape? Will any new coordinator have a major impact on his program?
Garrett: Steve Sarkisian should do well in his first season at USC, but given the lofty expectations Trojan fans have for their team every year, I think his successor at Washington will have the more "successful" season. Though major players Bishop Sankey, Keith Price, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins have moved on, Chris Petersen has inherited a Huskies program that is in infinitely better shape than Sarkisian found it in 2009. Petersen still has plenty of goods in the cupboard, as fourteen starters return, including the insanely gifted Shaq Thompson. Thompson has started 25 games as a linebacker/nickel back at Washington, but has also been given a look at running back ahead of this season. He won't be Bishop Sankey 2.0, but there is no reason to believe this kid can't be another Myles Jack. Joining him in the backfield will be QB Cyler Miles, who might be slightly behind Keith Price in the passing department, but is a much bigger threat with his legs, adding another dimension to the Washington attack. Perhaps the bigger contributing factor to believing Petersen will succeed in year one is the schedule...the Huskies get two of their three toughest games at home (Stanford and UCLA at home, Oregon on the road) and don't have to face their old coach and USC. Given the returning talent and favorable schedule, Washington will have a great chance at eclipsing last year's nine wins.
Chad: TCU was awful on Offense last year. The Horned Frogs topped 400 yards of total offense only 4 times, 9th in the high octane BIG XII and directly contributing to a dissapointing 4-8 season. But, thanks to Gary Patterson's perma-frown and the always compentent TCU defense, the Horned Frogs lost 4 of those 8 games by 4 points or less. Enter TCU's new Co-Offensive Coordinators: Doug Meacham and Sonnie Cumbie. Both these guys are young, but Meacham and Cumbie have worked under the most impressive offensive minds in football including Mike Leach, Dana Holgorsen, Mike Gundy, and Kliff Kingsbury. If this duo has learned half as much as I think they have while at Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, TCU is going to score more points, and show up in the win column alot more often in 2014. Look for the Frogs to win at least 8, and to make some surprising noise in a deep big XII conference.
4. Just as there new coaches, there are also talented, bright-eyed freshman lacing it up for the first time. Who will be the newcomer of the year?
Garrett: It's doubtful that he will lead LSU to a national title, a la Jameis Winston at FSU in 2013, but true freshman Leonard Fournette should have a huge season in Baton Rouge. The 6'1, 225 pound running back is essentially a grown-ass man at the ripe age of 19, as evidenced by his high school tape. With Zach Mettenberger gone, and LSU still unsettled as to who will start at QB in Week 1, you can bank on Les Miles having a penchant for pounding the rock all season long. Bolstering the likelihood of Fournette making a big splash in the SEC this year are the departures of the Tigers' top three rushers from last season, and the return of four starting offensive lineman. He will be splitting the lion's share of the carries with Kenny Hilliard, but don't be surprised if he takes control of the position by the end of the year, much like Adrian Peterson and Cedric Benson did in their first college seasons.
Chad: The hype surrounding Fournette is almost deafening at this point. I can't disagree here, especially considering the the play calling tendencies and the offensive line. The kid is set up for a special season. For the sake of parity, I will throw WR Speedy Noil of Texas A&M's name out there. I fell in love with Noil watching practices for the Under Armour All-American Game, struck by his speed and suprising physicality for a slightly built dude. Every word you hear out of Aggieland heaps effusive praise on Noil, and I think he will be a big time contributor to an Aggie offense breaking new starters in all over the place. If Noil returns punts and kicks look out--the Aggies will steal a game or two they have no business winning.
Bonus quasi-homer prediction: Oklahoma' Freshman Samaje Perine is the primary back in Norman by the time they travel to Dallas to play Texas the second weekend in October.
5. Which teams are destined to bounce back from sub-optimal seasons, and which programs are bound to take a few steps back?
Garrett: Hopefully Arizona State fans enjoyed last season, as Todd Graham's boys will come back down to earth this year. Last year's PAC 12 runner-up managed to achieve double-digit wins for the first time since 2007, but all signs point to 2014 being a very tough campaign for the Sun Devils. Graham has said that this year's offense is the best he's seen, but they are sure to struggle mightily on the other side of the ball. The Sun Devils return only two starters from a defense that was exposed by the better teams it faced last season. In the last five games of 2013, ASU's defense gave up an average of 443.8 yards per game, and also gave up over 400 yards earlier in the season against both Wisconsin and Notre Dame. Further hurting the unit is the departure of Will Sutton, as the mammoth DT will now be playing on Sundays for the Chicago Bears. The schedule does them no favors this year, as the Sun Devils will have to go to USC and Washington, while also facing UCLA, Stanford, and Notre Dame. Their season finale should also be a tough one, as Arizona will be out for blood, attempting to reclaim the Territorial Cup after getting embarrassed in Phoenix last year. Considering the brutal schedule and inexperienced defense, I don't see a way that the Sun Devils can match last year's win total.
Conversely, I expect a big turnaround from Will Muschamp and the Florida Gators. Beyond the simple notion that it can't get any worse than a 4-8 season that included a loss to Georgia Southern (who did not complete a single pass), there is a lot to like about this Florida team. First, you can expect Muschamp to field an extremely salty defense this season. Though their performance dropped off due to injuries (and lack of motivation) in the second half of the season after the wheels had come off the bus, this unit was arguably the best in the country through the first six games of the season. In those six contests, which included a close loss to LSU, the Gators only gave up 235.3 yards per game. Though some players have graduated or gone on to the NFL, 7 starters still return to anchor a defense that should look much more like the defense we saw the first half of last season. Switching to the other side of the ball, the offense won't be world-beaters by any means, but they should be a much better unit under new OC Kurt Roper. Roper's offenses at Duke gained over 400 yards per game the past two seasons, and with starting QB Jeff Driskel healthy again, Florida's offense should be more successful at moving the chains than they were last year, when three QBs took snaps because of injuries. Finally, while any SEC schedule is going to be tough, the Gators do get three of their toughest conference games at home, as Missouri, South Carolina, and LSU will all have to journey to The Swamp. I'll go on record and say that Muschamp gets at least eight wins this year, which should cool off the hot seat he's been sitting on since the end of last season.
Chad: This one hurts for me. I love Steve Spurrier. I think the Head Ball Coach is a national treasure worthy of his own holiday and visor-clad monument in D.C. That said, this year's South Carolina team is going to regress from where it was last season, despite a favorable schedule. Those touting the Gamecocks as playoff contenders point to experience across the offensive line, a stable of talented running backs, and a defense that returns 6 starters. Where they see 6 starters back, I see 5 key starters missing from 2013's unit, including 3 defensive lineman who will have productive NFL careers. I know it's the SEC and the Spurrier has recruited well over the past few cycles, but guys like Jadeveon Clowney, Chaz Sutton, and Stacey Quarles are nearly impossible to replace. South Carolina will miss their star-studded defensive line from 2013, and the 11 win mark for the first time since 2010.
My answer in number 3 tipped my hand here, but I really like TCU to have a huge turnaround, and potentially get in the mix in a wide open Big XII. TCU's offensive futility was noted above--the Horned Frogs couldn't run it or throw it, and that cost them in close games. Credit Gary Patterson for going out and getting two young coordinators who will bring TCU into the 21st century offensively. The schedule allows for a smooth transition to the new offense, unlike last season when the Frogs took their lumps from a talented but underachieving LSU team in week one. Look for TCU to double their win total from last year.
6. Can Jameis become the second repeat Heisman winner in history? If not, which player is most likely to strike the pose in December?
Chad: Nah. If Florida State is half as good as I think they are, he won't even get to play 'til half time this year, so Jameis may see his numbers decrease. Additionally, Carlos Williams as the full time starter at running back will also lead to some inter-team vote cannibalization a la Adrian Peterson and Jason White in '04. Finally, I think the totality of college footbal is suffering from Jameis fatigue. The rape allegation, the stolen crab legs (although I have legitimately forgotten to pay for an item before leaving a store. I have a college degree), and voters seeming reluctant to vote for the same guy twice (Archie Griffin, you ruined everything).
The best bet out there is on Oregon's Marcus Mariotta. He's going to put up the numbers, and I think Oregon's runs the table. Heisman voters are lazy. They will see Mariotta's gawdy numbers, that shiny zero in the Duck's loss column, and remember Jameis stole crab legs. Heisman: Mariotta.
7. Auburn came out of nowhere last season, only to surprise everyone and play for it all against the Florida State Seminoles in January. Which team is the most likely to be this year's Auburn?
Garrett: It may not be quite as big of a surprise as Auburn was last year, but Ole Miss is a dark horse team that could find themselves in the playoff if the ball bounces their way. Everyone is talking about Alabama, LSU, or Auburn coming out of the SEC West, but there are plenty of reasons to believe this team could make it to Atlanta in a year where no teams in the conference truly stand out. They have the most experienced quarterback in the league in Bo Wallace, and fourteen other starters returning, including nine on defense. Their schedule is a gift from the SEC God, Mike Slive: they dodge the traditional top three teams from the SEC East (Georgia, Florida, South Carolina), and divisional foes Auburn and Alabama will both have to journey to Oxford. Though they'll be an underdog in Baton Rouge in October, it's not too far-fetched to envision this team to lose only two games in the regular season, and win the division via tie-breaker. Defeat the SEC East Champion in Atlanta, and it's very hard to see a two-loss SEC Champion from the West getting left out of the playoff. A lot will have to go right for it to happen, but probably nowhere near as much as The Prayer at Jordan-Hare and Kick Six.
Chad: There's not an Auburn-esque turnaround to be had this year. If I had to pick an under the radar team to win a Big 5 Conference and sneak into the playoff it would be Nebraska. They have one of the best running backs in the country in Ameer Abdullah, sack machine Randy Gregory on defense, and a schedule that isn't horrible (although at Michigan State and at Wisconsin are hardly fun). A few good bounces here and there, and this team could be sitting at 11-1 and headed to the B1G Championship. If they win the B1G, I say they make the playoff. Plus, Pelini has sort of embraced being Pelini. Bring the cat out at the Spring Game? Wearing a skin tight alternate jersey to reveal it to the team? He's either losing the last small shred of sanity he had, or he has become the ultimate player's coach (this isn't a false binary, these are the only two options).
8. The playoff every fan has been screaming for has finally arrived. Who will be the inaugural four teams that play for it all?
Garrett: After much contemplation, and a lot of going back-and-forth these the four teams I believe will play for it all in January.
Florida State: Though I don't think Jameis will lift the Heisman for a second time, you have to think this team gets into the playoff given their schedule. A ton of talent returns to Tallahassee, and they face their three toughest opponents at home (Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida). The Seminoles will be huge favorites in every game they play, and when you take into account their status as defending national champion, you have to think they get into a playoff even if they have a slip-up, so long as its a close contest against a decent opponent.
Oregon: As previously stated, they have a favorable schedule and the best player in the country in Marcus Mariota. As long as they win the PAC 12 Championship game in December, they'll find themselves in the playoff even if they lose a regular season game to UCLA or Stanford.
Oklahoma: I'm sure Chad will have something to say about this selection, and while I have looked at all the reasons to keep this team out of the playoff, I have settled upon the sad likelihood that Bobby will have a great chance to win his second national championship. The Sooners defense should be the best in the Big XII, as LB Eric Striker will lead a very experienced unit that boasts 9 returning starters. QB Trevor Knight doesn't need to recreate his performance against Alabama last season in every game this year. As long as Knight can avoid the big mistakes and manage the game in his sophomore season, the Sooners should be able to ride their defense to an extremely successful year. They will be favored in every game they play this season, and their biggest challenger to the Big XII crown, Baylor, will have to travel to Norman this season, where Oklahoma is 57-4 over the past ten years.
South Carolina: Barring a meteor strike, it's almost a sure bet that there will be an SEC team in the playoff. No team from the SEC East has won the conference title since Florida back when Tebow-mania was in full swing, but the streak of SEC West dominance comes to an end this season. Despite losing the most talented player in college football, Spurrier will finally break through this season, as the South Carolina Gamecocks will advance to the College Football Playoff as the one-loss SEC Champion. They've won 11 games in each of the past three seasons, return 14 starters this year, and face a very manageable schedule that is devoid of Alabama and LSU. Spurrier's boys will only be an underdog when they travel to Auburn, but even that contest should be a winnable game for the Gamecocks. Take care of Georgia on September 13th, and even with a loss against Auburn, this team will be playing in Atlanta barring an upset.
Chad: I'm not even going to try to seed this thing, because crazy things can happen (hi, Auburn). Here are the four teams, in no particular order, that play in Jerry World for it all in January.
The first of my four slots goes to Florida State. I'm not even going to bother explaining this one. FSU is the most talented team in the country, and the only thing that will keep them from gaining a playoff birth is beating themselves. (btw, this team could totally pull a Florida state and lose to NC State or Boston College, just sayin').
My second slot goes to Alabama, in part because they're really good, in part because no matter what the SEC champion will be in the playoff. The SEC is deeeep this year, and I don't see anyone escaping without a loss. However, Alabama is once again the cream of the conference, and they'll win the league. But what if they have a loss? It doesnt matter. Seriously, a 9-3 Alabama team could limp into the SEC title game, win it, and the selection committee would take them. Whether it is true or not, the SEC has done a great job of convincing the country they are far and away the best conference. Therefore, the SEC champion, Alabama, will be in the playoff PAAWWWLLLL.
My third pick is Oregon. The Ducks should have played in a BCS bowl last year, and had the Sugar Bowl not selected Oklahoma it would be Oregon recieving all the hype the Sooners have been the beneficiary of since January. Only UCLA and Stanford stand in the Ducks way this year. UCLA is overrated, and Mark Helfrich's points blood machine will expose the Bruins. However, the Ducks still have a Stanford problem, having lost to Brian Shaw's bunch the last two seasons. Timing is everything in this sport, and the Ducks are in a more talent laden roster cycle than Stanford is this season. Unless Barry Sanders Jr. is the second coming of... well his dad, I guess, look for Oregon to win the Pac 12 and earn a playoff bid.
Ah, the final spot. I tried desperately to find different team to slot in here, but I'm going with Oklahoma. For starters, I'm not buying the Trevor Knight hype. He was fantastic in the Sugar Bowl, but that was his peak during a season of numerous deep valleys. However, the Sooners don't need Knight to be the 'Bama slayer very often, if at all this season. Before the Sugar Bowl, Knight was bad. He couldn't wrestle the startign job from now TE Blake Bell, and QB play cost the Sooners in their only to loses to Texas and Baylor. How did the Sooners win 11 with such a dumpster fire behind center for the first 12 games? Mike Stoops has the Sooner defense playing like it did 12 years ago, and well enough to carry the Sooners through much of the season. The defense will carry the mail through much of this season again, with the like of Charles Tapper, Erik Striker, and Jordan Phillips making up on of the country's best front 7's. The Sooners only need Trevor Knight and the rest of the offense to pick their spots and take care of the ball, which they are capable of. The Sooners will be favored in every game they play, and should run the table to nab a playoff spot.
Thanks for reading, and check back in the coming days and weeks for more material!
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