The Four To Score: Week 13

Few Weeks Remain, But Opportunities Are Everywhere

There are only three full Saturdays of college football left before Bowl Season begins, as we get closer each week to determining which teams will be playing for it all in Pasadena.  Despite the dwindling time left in this season, you don't have to look hard to find big games and soft lines to take advantage of.  We went a respectable 3-2 last week, getting very unlucky in the Texas Tech game, but were also extremely fortunate that Georgia defenders had not been taught to bat a ball down on Hail Mary.  I'm not even going to speak of what happened in Austin last week, so lets just get into this week's contests.

First Down: LSU -4.5 vs. Texas A&M  3:30 PM EST

The Tigers won a close one in College Station at the beginning of last season, before everyone became obsessed with Johnny Football.  Manziel and his teammates will certainly be looking for revenge this week, with an eye on a potential BCS bid, but they are about to find out that Death Valley is not a hospitable place.  LSU is undefeated at home this season, and the Aggies are 0-2 ATS in away games.  Texas A&M defense still can't stop anyone, as evidenced by the 41 points the inept Mississippi State offense put up a few weeks ago.  Manziel may be able to put up a few points in Baton Rouge, but it won't be enough due to his team's defensive deficiencies.  Mettenberger and The Mad Hatter win this one by at least a touchdown in front of their raucous fans.  

Second Down: Oklahoma State +9 vs. Baylor 8:00 PM EST

If you saw how the Cowpoke fans welcomed the Gameday bus into town, you only have to imagine what Saturday night will be like in Stillwater when the fans in orange and black have had all day to consume alcoholic beverages.  Oklahoma State is getting more than a touchdown at home, against a team that only beat them by a touchdown in Waco last season.  The Cowboys showed what they were worth last week in Austin, when they essentially packed Mack Brown's office up for him.  Boone Pickens Stadium will be absolutely insane on Saturday night, and if the Bears manage to escape with a victory, it will be by a very slim margin.  Take the primetime home dog and the points, with a nibble at the big ML. 

Third Down: Arizona State -2 vs. UCLA 7:00 PM EST

Saturday night's game means everything for these two teams, as the winner will control their own destiny in the Pac 12 South.  With so much on the line, you have to look at how the teams have performed in big games.  Arizona State lost a close one to Notre Dame, but also won a big non-conference game against Wisconsin, and their huge victory over USC looks better with every week that passes.  On the other sideline, UCLA was lucky to win last week thanks to Keith Price's injury, and they have gotten beat soundly by the other two good teams they played (Stanford and Oregon).  This game will probably come down to the wire, but the Sun Devils win this one by at least a field goal and book their place in the Pac 12 championship game. 

Fourth Down: Washington State -1.5 vs. Utah  3:30 PM EST

Washington State's postseason dreams likely hinge on this game, as they can become bowl eligible with a win in Pullman this weekend.  The Cougars showed last weekend that they are determined to make it to a bowl by upsetting Arizona in Tucson, and Mike Leach's team looks incredibly focused after their two week break.  Since upsetting Stanford in Salt Lake City, Utah has been abysmal, losing four consecutive games.  Even worse for Utah fans is the fact that their team has lost every road conference game by double digits this season.  This game is a no-brainer...Swing your sword and back Mike Leach at home. 

Extra Point: Ohio State vs. Indiana UNDER 82 3:30 PM EST

This point total is is very close to last week's Baylor vs. Texas Tech game, which was also in the 80s.  People have been clamoring that Indiana can put up points with the best of them, after putting up 28 against Mizzou and Michigan State.  But the fact remains that this is the Big Ten, not the Big 12.  Indiana showed their true colors last week when they only managed a field goal against Wisconsin.  The Hoosiers have scored more than 17 points only once in their last five visits to the Horseshoe, and you know Urban Meyer will be looking for the blowout here.  Ohio State will get theirs, and the Buckeyes defense will keep the Hoosiers in check.  This one stays well under the total, with the Buckeyes winning big.  

The Four To Score: 20-25-1

Extra Points: 5-5-1

Overall: 25-30-1 

The Four To Score: Week 12

Conference Races Winding Down With Huge Games

We're getting closer and closer to the end of the season with each passing week, and the conference races are heating up with big games every week.  Look across the entire country, and you'll find at least one game in every conference that could have a major impact in determining who the conference champion will be.  Unfortunately the national race is nowhere near as compelling, as all signs point to an Alabama vs. Florida State game for the crystal ball, thanks to the Oregon "We Want Bama" Ducks forgetting that they had to play Stanford last week.  Without further hesitation, here are this week's picks.  

First Down: Texas +3 vs. Oklahoma State  3:30 PM EST

The Texas Longhorns probably should not have come away from Morgantown with a win, but last week's performance was a sign that this a team who has come together and simply refuses to lose.  Arguably the most important matchup in the Big XII this weekend, this week's game will likely decide which team plays in the Cotton Bowl, unless either team can upset Baylor in the coming weeks.  Oklahoma State has come on strong in the second half of this season, but I don't think they'd be a six point favorite on a neutral field, as this line would indicate.  Although the Longhorns have been very sketchy at home in the last few seasons under Mack Brown, DKR should be packed and rocking this weekend (not the norm in Austin), fueling the Horns to an upset victory.  Take the Burnt Orange and the points. 

Second Down: USC +4 vs. Stanford  8:00 PM EST

Stanford comes into this game feeling pretty good about themselves, as they are now the favorite to win the conference after last weekend's big home win against Oregon.  However, the Trojans have experienced a bit of a revival under Ed Orgeron, as they have won every game since he took the reigns.   USC will have all the motivation in the world in this one, as they have lost the last four meetings to the Cardinal, and have not won in Los Angeles since 2005.  This scenario reminds me a lot of the Texas vs. Oklahoma game earlier this season, and I'm not making the same mistake again.  USC ends Stanford's streak, catching the Cardinal in a hangover spot.   

Third Down: Texas Tech +28 vs. Baylor  7:00 PM EST

Baylor rolled against the Sooners last week, and Tech faltered at home once again in a big way, so the obvious thought is that this game should be a blowout. After all, Baylor has rolled through just about everyone this season.  Yet I think there is still a bit of fight in this year's version of the Red Raiders.  Now, I'm not saying that I think Texas Tech wins this outright, but I think they come out and keep it from getting ugly.  Give me Kliff's boys and the four touchdowns.  

Fourth Down: Auburn -3 vs. Georgia  3:30 PM EST 

Auburn is on a tear right now, while Georgia has underwhelmed this season due to injuries.  I'll be the first to tell you that I did not see anything like this coming for the Auburn Tigers, but they have been incredibly impressive in their last few games, even if they did come against middle-of-the-road SEC teams.  I don't see Auburn looking ahead in this one, as their QB Nick Marshall is a Georgia transfer.  It may not be a blowout like Auburn's last few games, but Gus Malzahn's gets the win here against an opponent they've only beaten once in their last seven tries.

Extra Point: Kansas State OVER 28 Points
The K-State offense has gelled over the last few weeks, and is rolling.  Though Texas Tech has some problems tackling, you have to give the Wildcats some credit for that performance last weekend.  Kansas State is averaging 34 points a game, and have gone over the total of 28 in four of their last five. Look for them to do it again here, against the dumpster-fire of the Big XII.

The Four To Score: 18-23-1
Extra Points: 4-5-1
Overall: 22-28-1

The Four To Score: Week 11

It Can't Get Worse Than Last Week

Last week was a new low point, going 0-5 here at The Four To Score.  Tons of close calls, but in the end, we just didn't get the job done.  No point in hiding from it, only thing to do now is get back on the horse and make some gains after defecating all over ourselves last weekend.  As it's homecoming weekend here, I've got some debauchery to partake in, so let's get into this week's picks and keep it short and sweet.

First Down: Texas Tech -2.5 vs. Kansas State

Texas Tech will bounce back here, after losing two in a row to the schools from Oklahoma.  Teams that get destroyed one week tend to come out with a fire lit under them the following, and Texas Tech got destroyed plus a little more last week.  Kansas State has been playing well of late, but they have lost both of their away games this season.  It may come down to be a field goal, but that will be good enough to get us to the window.  Suns up, Gun.....Yeah, there is no way in hell I'm saying that crap. 

Second Down: LSU +13 at Alabama

With how poorly Oregon is executing right now in Palo Alto, Alabama may very well be the unquestionable #1 team in the country come kickoff time on Saturday.  However, Alabama and LSU games tend to be slugfests, and the thirteen seems like way too many points here, given the recent history between these teams.  Outside of the National Championship game, every contest since 2007 has been decided by single digits.  Take the points, and watch these two squads knock the hell out of each other for sixty minutes. 

Third Down: UCLA +1.5 at Arizona

UCLA has undeniably been in a funk here, while Arizona has been rolling.  However, Arizona has only played one good team this year, and got shellacked in that one up in Seattle.  I don't trust B.J. Denker, and I can't trust a Wildcats team that has only played one good ball-club on the year.  UCLA has the better quarterback and defense in this matchup, and that should be plenty to get the victory here in Tucson.  After all, this is the same Bruins team that beat the tar out of Arizona last season. 

Fourth Down: Michigan -6.5 vs. Nebraska

Both of these teams forgot how to play the game of football last week, as Michigan got eviscerated in East Lansing, and Nebraska survived against Northwestern only because of Hail Mary.  These units are very inconsistent, but I think there is some value here at Michigan under a touchdown.  The Wolverines have taken care of business at home this season, winning every game but one by at least a touchdown.  Nebraska's one road game was a loss at Minnesota, and it wasn't pretty.  Give me the home team and a potent offense to bounce back after the sluggish performance against Michigan State.

Extra Point: UCLA at Arizona OVER 56.5

There will be points.  Lots of them. Book it. 

The Four To Score: Week 10

The Games May Suck, But These Picks Don't

Let's face it...this week's games are horrible.  In fact, some might even say they are worse than the jerseys Oregon State sported against USC this week, which really is saying something based on the level of "suck" the Beavers achieved Friday night.  Given the amount of crap that was put up on the board this week, it was tough finding some good numbers out there, kind of like finding an NFL game that doesn't involve a torn ACL.  Seriously, the amount of torn ACLs has gotten utterly ridiculous.  Before I get further off topic, here are this week's picks. 

First Down: Virginia Tech -4 at Boston College  12:00 PM EST

Beamer's boys are coming off a surprising loss to Duke, where the offense sputtered and only managed to put up 10 points.  Luckily for the Hokies, BC has given up points to everyone, surrendering at least 20 points in each of their last five contests.  Additionally, Logan Thomas and Beamer love playing the Golden Eagles, as they've beaten them each of the past five years.  You know the VT defense will always come to play, and they've been a very impressive unit so far this season, having only given up more than 20 points twice.   I'm banking that Logan Thomas and his offensive teammates can't play any worse than they did last week, so I'll lay the points with the staunch defense while the number posted on the board is the lowest it's been all week.

Second Down: Nebraska -5.5 vs. Northwestern  3:30 PM EST

Nebraska will be out to lay the wood this week after being upset last week in Minnesota, and there isn't a better team to do it against than Northwestern.  Northwestern has completely melted down since losing to Ohio State, as they've lost every game since that heartbreaker.  The Cornhuskers were rolling before losing to the Gophers, as they had won three straight, covering the spread every time.  Though the last two games between these two squads have been close ones, I expect the Huskers to get back on track this week.  Take the points and Big Red at a much better line than the opener of -7.

Third Down: Arkansas +8.5 vs. Auburn  6:00 PM EST

Raise your hand if you had Auburn as Alabama's biggest threat in the SEC West this season...Yeah, that's right, no one did.  People have been heaping praise on the Tigers after their upset win in College Station, but plenty of teams are capable of beating the Aggies and their non-existent defense this season.  Look, I'm not saying Auburn is a bad team, or that it got lucky against Johnny Football.  What I am saying is that there is no way they should be favored by more than a touchdown on the road against an Arkansas team that is coming off a bye week.  The off week was exactly Bielema and his boys needed after getting throttled in three consecutive contests, and they should come out fired up to pull the upset against the newly crowned Top 10 team.  Arkansas may win this one outright, but if they lose, it will be by a narrow margin.

Fourth Down: Miami +22 at Florida State  8:00 PM EST 

All week long people have been slamming the Hurricanes, describing them as the new Texas Tech, aka the most overrated team in the Top 10.  After all, they nearly lost their last two games against the lowly squads of Wake Forest and North Carolina.  If you looked at only those two games, and combined them with how well Famous Jameis is playing, of course this game looks like a blowout.  However, the Hurricanes are still an undefeated ball club, and you have to think that they've been looking ahead to this contest for the past two weeks.  Things can get pretty weird in rivalry games, and this is a gigantic number to post for a rivalry game featuring two undefeated ball clubs.  I don't think Miami can win this one outright, but I certainly think they can keep it within three touchdowns.  Give me the massive amount of points an "Da U." 

Extra Point: Arizona OVER 41.5 Points  3:30 PM EST 

California can't stop the run, as they are rated 90th in the country in Rushing Defense.  Arizona loves to run, as they have the 10th best Rushing Offense in the country, thanks in part to the best back in the country, Ka'deem Carey.  If you look at California's box scores this season, it's blatantly obvious that this defense can't stop anyone.  They've given up over 30 points in every contest, and have conceded over 41 in six of them.  On the other side, the Wildcats have gotten hot lately, as they have scored over 31 points in each of their last three games.  Arizona will pound the ball at will, and they should score just about every time in what should be a high-scoring matchup. 

The Four To Score: 16-16-1

Extra Points: 3-4-1

Overall: 19-20-1

The Four To Score: Week 9

The Band Journey Once Said: "Don't Stop Winning" 

Another week, another set of picks from The Four To Score going 3-2.  It seems darn near automatic now, given that we've gone 12-6-2 in the last four weeks.  But, you must never settle for complacency, and this week provides us yet another opportunity at getting an elusive undefeated weekend ATS.  Without further hesitation, here are this week's picks.   

First Down: Texas +2.5 vs. TCU; 7:30 PM EST

I'm not going to lie, I was very puzzled when this line opened TCU -3.  The Horned Frogs have been very unimpressive this season, and looked downright awful last week at Oklahoma State.  Texas is coming off its most impressive win of the season against Oklahoma, and had an extra week off to prepare for Gary Patterson's boys.  The Longhorns, which were once dead in the water, now have something to play for, and are a very different team than the one that lost to BYU and Ole Miss.  It should be a close one, but expect Mack Brown and Case McCoy to get the revenge win in Fort Worth. 

Second Down: UCLA +23.5 vs. Oregon; 7:00 PM EST

Another Oregon game, another decision based solely on principle.  This line opened up around Oregon -17, and has been bought up all the way to -23.5.  At that -17 number, Oregon probably has to be the play if there is one to be made there, but a 6.5 point difference makes this a completely different story.  UCLA will have some extra motivation on their side this weekend after struggling at Stanford last week, and their defense will be the best the Ducks have seen all season.  Oregon may be the best team in the country, but remember last week's play against them with Washington State to quell your worries. The Ducks should get the win, but the Bruins will get the cover thanks to the inflated margin.  

Third Down: Oregon State +5 vs. Stanford; 10:30 PM EST

The Beavers have gotten hot, and Sean Mannion is the best quarterback you know nothing about.  Since losing their season opener to Eastern Washington,  Oregon State has reeled off six straight wins, with four of them coming by double digits.  Individually, Mannion has been unreal, throwing for just under 3,000 yards and 29 TDs.  On the flip side, Stanford is in the tail end of its most difficult stretch of the season, having played three very tough opponents in Washington, Utah, and UCLA in the past three weeks.  Last year's game went down to the wire in Palo Alto, with the Cardinal edging out the Beavers after trailing by nine late in the third quarter.  You can expect this game to be very close once again, so take the points with the home team in Corvallis.   

Fourth Down: Oklahoma -6.5 vs. Texas Tech; 3:30 PM EST

Texas Tech comes into this game as one of the last unbeaten teams in college football, after running off seven consecutive wins to start the season.  However, the Red Raiders haven't played a solid team yet this season, and the last thing you went to take into Norman is team that isn't battle-tested.  Historically the home team has dominated this series, as the only road team to get a win since 2004 was Tech in 2011.  When the games have been played in Norman, the Sooners have had their way, usually winning by double digits.  Oklahoma is the more proven commodity, and they are under the key number, making this a no-brainer.  

Extra Point: UCLA OVER 24.5 PTS

The trend is all too common when it comes to Oregon.  They often get out to a big lead, the starters come out, and their opponent scores some garbage time points.  In their last two games, the Ducks have given up 24 or more, and even gave up 38 to Wazzu last weekent.  Although UCLA only scored 10 points last weekend, their offense has shown the capability to put up points this year (averaging 39.8 ppg), and I expect them to get some on the board before Oregon's second and third-stringers come in toward the end of the game.  

The Four To Score: 14-14-2

Extra Points: 3-3-1

Overall: 17-17-3

The Four To Score: Week 8

"Just Win, Baby!"

Let begin this week's column by saying I will gladly take a loss if it means my Horns smoked the Sooners in the Cotton Bowl.  That age-old adage of "never bet against your team" proved true last week, as Mack Brown and the boys came out and kicked in Oklahoma's teeth relentlessly for sixty minutes.  They proved me and the rest of the country wrong, and it was oh so glorious.  Despite that loss though, we had our third consecutive winning week here at The Four To Score, going 3-2 over the weekend, with the only other loss occurring in Washington.  Over the past three weeks, we've definitely been on fire like Daje Johnson's feet, going 9-4-2 in all of our plays, for a 60% winning clip.  The train is running full speed now, and we have no intention of it stopping.  

First Down: Clemson +3 vs. Florida State; 8 PM EST

Though Clemson has underwhelmed in previous weeks, lets not forget about that big win in Week 1 against Georgia.  This game against Florida State is very similar to that one, as the Tigers enter as primetime home underdogs once again.  Famous Jameis Winston has been fantastic for the seminoles this season, but this will be Florida State's first real test of the season.  Death Valley will be rocking just like it did when Georgia came town, and I'm expecting Jameis to get a bit rattled during his first experience in this kind of atmosphere.  Give me the more experienced Tajh Boyd and the points, as the home team in this game has won the last six outright. 

Second Down:  Washington State +40 vs. Oregon; 10 PM EST

This play is one based solely on principle.  Every line that has come out on the Ducks has been hammered by the public, and because the Ducks have kept covering, the books have pushed the lines higher and higher.  There is no way the Cougars should be getting 40 points here, as they are a fairly respectable 4-3 team, despite a big loss to Oregon State last week.  Remember they beat USC at the Coliseum, and gave Auburn all the could handle down in Alabama.  In their last three meetings, the Cougars haven't lost to the Ducks by more than 25 points.  Oregon should get an easy win, but I expect Washington State to keep it within the forty point margin, as teams coming off a big loss generally play much better the following week.

Third Down: Stanford -4.5 vs. UCLA; 3:30 PM EST

I love what Jim Mora and Brett Hundley have done down in UCLA this season.  However, this is not the spot to make a play on them.  Stanford is coming off an upset loss to Utah last week, meaning they are playing for their season this week against the Bruins.  If they lose to UCLA, their chance at a PAC-12 North division title is gone, as there is no way in hell that Oregon will lose two games this season.  Stanford has won the last five in this series, including two last season in back-to-back weeks.  David Shaw will have his team motivated, as Stanford comes out fired up to get the win and keep their season alive. 

Fourth Down: Notre Dame -2.5 vs. USC; 7:30 PM EST

The Trojans got us the cover at home against Arizona last week, but they are facing a much tougher test when they head to South Bend this weekend.  Though USC has had extra time to prepare for this week's contest, they are 2-7 in their last nine games ATS, and are 0-9 in their last nine road games ATS.  Notre Dame is coming off a bye week after beating a solid Arizona State team on a neutral field. Remember, that Sun Devil team is the one that beat the snot out of USC, and ended Lane Kiffin's career.  With how big Notre Dame is up front on defense, the Trojans' running game should struggle, and will it all be on quarterback Cody Kessler's shoulders.  USC may be better than they were when Kiffin is in charge, but they won't be good enough to get the win in South Bend.  The Irish win a close one at home, ending the streak of road teams dominating this series over the past four years. 

Extra Point: LSU vs. Ole Miss OVER 60 

In the last three contests between these two schools, LSU has put over 40 points on the board in each game.  This year's unit might be the better than all of the previous three, as the Tigers have put points up on everyone except the staunch Florida defense.  Ole Miss has given up 30 points three times this season, including 41 to Johnny Football last weekend.  The fact is that the Rebels can't stop an above average offense, let alone one as good as Texas A&M's.  LSU will probably get the cover, but the better play here is the OVER, as the Tigers might get into the 50's here, with Ole Miss putting some points on the board as well. 

The Four To Score: 11-13-2

Extra Points: 3-2-1

Overall: 14-16-3

"Houston...We have a problem."

Time To Call VY 

The Houston Texans have officially imploded.  After getting drubbed in San Fran last weekend, this was supposed to be the weekend that Schaub and the rest of the H-Town boys got back on track.  I mean, come on, St. Louis struggled against Jacksonville last week, and has looked horrible this season. Nearly everyone across the country had the Rams at the bottom of their power rankings heading into this week.  Then the teams took the field, and everything went to hell and a hand-basket in the blink of an eye.  Jeff Fisher's team came out and beat the Texans in every aspect of the game, revealing that Houston is spiraling completely out of control.  When you look at the tape and the stat lines, one thing is crystal clear: you can't blame the Texans' defense.  They gave up only 216 yards of offense today, yet the Rams put up 38 points.  Yes, it's evident that the blame is shouldered by the men on the other side of the ball for Houston, who put their defensive comrades in bad positions every week.  But the Texans have a great offensive line, and fantastic weapons at WR, TE, and RB.  Thus, in my opinion the blame falls solely on one position: quarterback.

If you've been keeping track at home, this was the fifth consecutive week that the Texans threw a pick-six.  Except this time it wasn't Schaub, but TJ Yates who did the deed.  Combined, the two have managed to throw more interceptions than touchdowns this season, and it's easy to see that the fan base has lost all faith in the two.  Hell, you could even hear cheers from the Houston fans when Schaub left the game with an injury today.  With the losses mounting and increasing unrest from Texans fans, there is one move that Houston's front office should make immediately, for a variety of reasons...signing Vince Young.  

Now although I am a University of Texas alum, I ask you to hear me out on this instead of simply disregarding my opinion as the dumb idea of a "homer."  First, the quarterback play can't get any worse than it already is in Houston, so there is nothing to lose by signing Vince.  Despite the falling out with Fisher, and the struggles in Philly, Young has won 60% of his starts in the NFL, and he looked like the VY of old earlier this preseason with the Packers.  Hell, the Packers GM even admitted that Vince would probably be the backup if they had signed him earlier in the offseason.  Secondly, this move would help the Houston office save face with its fan base, not destroy it.  Some have said that signing VY off the street would make it seem like everything is out of control in Houston.  News flash, Texans front office: IT IS OUT OF CONTROL.  By signing Young, you're bringing some excitement to town and satisfying the fan base, as the hometown boy will finally be suiting up for the team he's always wanted to play for.  Not to mention that plenty of Texans fans were clamoring for the team to draft him with the first overall pick after he took down USC in the Rose Bowl.  Vince would be fully invested in the Texans, and those of you who have followed his career have seen what can happen when the man is in his zone.  All you have to do is think back to his last two seasons at Texas, and his early years in Tennessee.  If he's given the opportunity to lead that offense, and they get a few wins under their belt, the sky could be the limit for the Texans despite their poor start.  What might be seen as some to be a band-aid fix could turn into a long term solution, as the Texans are loaded everywhere else.  If Vince were to succeed as the Texans quarterback this season, it COULD go down as the greatest move the franchise has ever made, from both on-and-off-the-field standpoints.

For those who might have lingering hesitations after the Tennessee fiasco and the Philly backup appearances, all you have to see is this tweet from earlier today:

@VinceYoung: Let them know VY is in shape and ready to go! I always loved my birth place and everyone who lives in it IM READY

The man wants this.  He wants the pressure of being under center in his hometown, he wants to be the one to take Houston to the top.  As a fan, how can you not want that after seeing the timid play of Schaub and Yates over the past few weeks, knowing full well that Vince can't do any worse than they have?  The ball is the Texans' court now; all they have to do is pick up the phone.