The Four To Score: Week Seven

Another Week of Mayhem? 

While last week was one of the best College Football has seen in quite some time, the same can't be said for The Four To Score. Chad West, CPA, and I certainly had our struggles last week, going a horrendous 3-7. There's no denying we Charlie Weis'd it last week, but things wouldn't have been so bad if Stanford hadn't blown coverage on fourth down late in the game. Alas, things like that happen when you're picking games, and you have to balance out the good times with the bad beats. Before this gets as depressing as listening to some of the callers on the Finebaum show, lets delve into this week's card, which presents a slew of fantastic games much like last week. 

First Down: Texas A&M -2 vs. Ole Miss, 9:00 PM EST (Garrett)

One team is looking to bounce back following an embarrassing loss in Starkville, and the other is primed for a letdown after the biggest win in the history of its university….You get where I'm going with this one. It took everything Ole Miss had in the tank to beat Alabama this week, and it's hard to envision getting that type of performance from a team in back-to-back weeks, especially now that is has to go into the hostile environment created by the cult in College Station. While Dr. Bo showed up and played the game of his life last week, Kenny Trill struggled in Starkville. I'm not certain Dr. Bo can go two weeks in a row with a clean sheet in the interception category, but there is no way Kenny Trill and his skill players have a worse performance than they did last week. Sumlin will get his athletes in space to negate the tremendous skill the Rebel defense has up front in players like Nkemdiche, and the Aggies will notch their first big home SEC Win. Sadly, that means you'll have to hear incessant whooping Saturday night.

Baylor -8 vs. TCU, 3:30 PM  EST (Chad)
When this line started at -11, a was a TCU lean. In our season preview column, I picked the Frogs to as my team most likely to improve, and after last week's upset win over Oklahoma it's clear TCU is improved. However, Baylor is a monster at home, and at -8 I can't pass this line up. TCU had to pull out all the stops to beat OU, and Baylor will no doubt be studying the film on that speed option that gave the sooners fits in the first half. I don't see another ace up TCU's sleeve to jump out to an early two score lead. Additionally, Baylor showed last week they are comfortable grinding out a substantial win. Baylor pulls away by double digits in the second half.

Second Down: UCLA +2.5 vs. Oregon, 3:30 PM EST (Garrett)

Both of these teams suffered upsets at home last week, but there is a lot more reason for concern with the Oregon Ducks right now. The past two weeks have highlighted just how big the problems are with Oregon's makeshift offensive line, as the Ducks gave up ten sacks to Wazzu and Arizona. Neither of those teams are known for the things they do on the defensive side of the ball. Conversely, UCLA's strength is its' front seven, and they will be breathing down Mariota's neck all night long in the Rose Bowl. The wrong team is favored in the Rose Bowl this week, as the Bruins will give the Ducks their second consecutive loss, knocking Oregon out of the playoff and making Mark Helfrich's seat very hot.

Auburn -3 @ Mississippi State, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)
I just can't get on board the Clanga Train. My co-blogger's crush on Dak Prescott is well noted, and well deserved. However, I think the Auburn Defense duels him to a relative draw. Auburn does the Auburn thing, and wears the Bulldogs out up front with their running attack. Duke Williams and Sammie Coates get free an awful lot in the Bulldog secondary of play action during the second half, and Auburn comes away with a comfortable win. 

Third Down: Washington +3.5 vs. California, 6:00 PM EST (Garrett)

I realize the Huskies struggled mightily on offense against Stanford. It also can't be ignored that Keith Price, Bishop Sankey, and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins are no longer on campus. That being said, there is just no way I can explain the line shift from last year's game to this year's. Last year, the Huskies were favored by a whopping 28 points in Seattle. Now, if you're excluding Home Field Advantage, you're telling me Cal has closed a 25 point gap? When Washington returned 16 starters to start the season?!? Cal's offense may be lighting up the scoreboard, but they haven't played a competent defense other than Northwestern, and they beat PAC 12 basement dwellers Colorado and Wazzu by a combined four points!!! Though this play is purely based on principle, the Huskies defense will be the best defense Cal has seen this year, and the offense should have sorted some of its issues out over the bye week. It also doesn't hurt that Washington has dominated this series recently, winning six of the last seven.

OU-14.5 vs. Texas (at the Cotton Bowl), 12:00 PM EST (Chad)
It saddens me that for the first time in a reallllly long time, I will not be in the Cotton Bowl on Saturday. If you're at the fair Saturday, please drink a plastic-infused beer for me. Now, I hate picking this game, but after talking with Garrett I'm fairly secure in my pick. Last year, Texas took advantage of the absence of OU's best interior defensive lineman (the massive Jordan Phillips) and gouged the Sooners up front for a ton of yards. Case McCoy made the 4 best throw of his career, and UT upset the Sooners. This year, Jordan Phillips is healthy, and the Sooners have proven fairly stingy up front. I don't see many ways for the Longhorns to make yards, much less score, with the inept Shawn Watson calling plays. The rumors out of Norman are Stoops has been in position meetings all week (something he hasn't done since he essentially retired after the 2000 National Championship). The Sooners are going in to Dallas ready, and if they lose it will be because Texas actually beats them. The continued absence of Keith Ford hurts the Sooners some, but they score enough, and keep Texas to few enough, to cover.

Fourth Down: Georgia Tech -3 vs. Duke, 12:00 PM EST (Garrett)

When you look at how Duke has faired against Georgia Tech in previous years, the box scores depict a crime scene. Last year, the Yellow Jackets rushed for 344 yards. The year before that, they rushed for 330. Three years ago, they gained 364 on the ground. Simply put, Georgia Tech has run the option up and down Duke's throat year in and year out. So far this season, Duke has only played one competent team, the Miami Hurricanes. Duke lost to them, giving up over 200 yards on the ground, while the Yellow Jackets took care of Al Golden and Co. last week in Atlanta. Though they have had an extra week to prepare for the option attack, things still probably won't bode well for a unit ranked 79th in the country in Rush Defense, when they've played teams like Kansas, Tulane, and almighty Elon. Georgia Tech will run left, right, up, down, and all over Duke this week. Hell, they should probably run all over everyone after the pep talks they get every week from their team chaplain….

Michigan State -20.5 at Purdue, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)
At this point, Michigan State may be the most underrated team in the country. If not for a baffling half in Eugene a month ago, we would be talking about this team as a borderline playoff shoe-in. Purdue, on the other hand well, sucks. Pat Narduzzi's defense keeps Purdue out of the endzone, and the Spartans methodically pound away at the score board all afternoon. This one smells like a rout, and unfortunately, Michigan State continues to inches their way back into the playoff picture. 

Extra Point: Notre Dame vs. North Carolina UNDER 65 Points (Garrett)

This game definitely reeks of a look ahead situation for Notre Dame, with a trip to Florida State on deck next weekend. That being said, the Notre Dame defense does rank 3rd in the country in points allowed per game, and considering it hasn't given up more than 17 points all season, it should be able to dictate the terms of the affair at home this weekend. It won't be as ugly the game last week against Stanford, but this one has the looks of a game that goes under the total, with Notre Dame not winning as convincingly as it probably should.

Florida vs. LSU UNDER 47 Points (Chad)
These two may not score a single point. Florida is sticking with much maligned starter Jeff Driskel again, almost entirely because of a lack of reasonable alternatives. LSU will put a true freshman under center again, which oh boy, that's gonna be fun. You couldn't pay me to watch this game. Florida wins 2-0.

Garrett's Record: 16-11-3

Chad's Record: 11-19-1

Overall Record: 27-30-4