The Four To Score: Week 13

Few Weeks Remain, But Opportunities Are Everywhere

There are only three full Saturdays of college football left before Bowl Season begins, as we get closer each week to determining which teams will be playing for it all in Pasadena.  Despite the dwindling time left in this season, you don't have to look hard to find big games and soft lines to take advantage of.  We went a respectable 3-2 last week, getting very unlucky in the Texas Tech game, but were also extremely fortunate that Georgia defenders had not been taught to bat a ball down on Hail Mary.  I'm not even going to speak of what happened in Austin last week, so lets just get into this week's contests.

First Down: LSU -4.5 vs. Texas A&M  3:30 PM EST

The Tigers won a close one in College Station at the beginning of last season, before everyone became obsessed with Johnny Football.  Manziel and his teammates will certainly be looking for revenge this week, with an eye on a potential BCS bid, but they are about to find out that Death Valley is not a hospitable place.  LSU is undefeated at home this season, and the Aggies are 0-2 ATS in away games.  Texas A&M defense still can't stop anyone, as evidenced by the 41 points the inept Mississippi State offense put up a few weeks ago.  Manziel may be able to put up a few points in Baton Rouge, but it won't be enough due to his team's defensive deficiencies.  Mettenberger and The Mad Hatter win this one by at least a touchdown in front of their raucous fans.  

Second Down: Oklahoma State +9 vs. Baylor 8:00 PM EST

If you saw how the Cowpoke fans welcomed the Gameday bus into town, you only have to imagine what Saturday night will be like in Stillwater when the fans in orange and black have had all day to consume alcoholic beverages.  Oklahoma State is getting more than a touchdown at home, against a team that only beat them by a touchdown in Waco last season.  The Cowboys showed what they were worth last week in Austin, when they essentially packed Mack Brown's office up for him.  Boone Pickens Stadium will be absolutely insane on Saturday night, and if the Bears manage to escape with a victory, it will be by a very slim margin.  Take the primetime home dog and the points, with a nibble at the big ML. 

Third Down: Arizona State -2 vs. UCLA 7:00 PM EST

Saturday night's game means everything for these two teams, as the winner will control their own destiny in the Pac 12 South.  With so much on the line, you have to look at how the teams have performed in big games.  Arizona State lost a close one to Notre Dame, but also won a big non-conference game against Wisconsin, and their huge victory over USC looks better with every week that passes.  On the other sideline, UCLA was lucky to win last week thanks to Keith Price's injury, and they have gotten beat soundly by the other two good teams they played (Stanford and Oregon).  This game will probably come down to the wire, but the Sun Devils win this one by at least a field goal and book their place in the Pac 12 championship game. 

Fourth Down: Washington State -1.5 vs. Utah  3:30 PM EST

Washington State's postseason dreams likely hinge on this game, as they can become bowl eligible with a win in Pullman this weekend.  The Cougars showed last weekend that they are determined to make it to a bowl by upsetting Arizona in Tucson, and Mike Leach's team looks incredibly focused after their two week break.  Since upsetting Stanford in Salt Lake City, Utah has been abysmal, losing four consecutive games.  Even worse for Utah fans is the fact that their team has lost every road conference game by double digits this season.  This game is a no-brainer...Swing your sword and back Mike Leach at home. 

Extra Point: Ohio State vs. Indiana UNDER 82 3:30 PM EST

This point total is is very close to last week's Baylor vs. Texas Tech game, which was also in the 80s.  People have been clamoring that Indiana can put up points with the best of them, after putting up 28 against Mizzou and Michigan State.  But the fact remains that this is the Big Ten, not the Big 12.  Indiana showed their true colors last week when they only managed a field goal against Wisconsin.  The Hoosiers have scored more than 17 points only once in their last five visits to the Horseshoe, and you know Urban Meyer will be looking for the blowout here.  Ohio State will get theirs, and the Buckeyes defense will keep the Hoosiers in check.  This one stays well under the total, with the Buckeyes winning big.  

The Four To Score: 20-25-1

Extra Points: 5-5-1

Overall: 25-30-1 

The Four To Score: Week 12

Conference Races Winding Down With Huge Games

We're getting closer and closer to the end of the season with each passing week, and the conference races are heating up with big games every week.  Look across the entire country, and you'll find at least one game in every conference that could have a major impact in determining who the conference champion will be.  Unfortunately the national race is nowhere near as compelling, as all signs point to an Alabama vs. Florida State game for the crystal ball, thanks to the Oregon "We Want Bama" Ducks forgetting that they had to play Stanford last week.  Without further hesitation, here are this week's picks.  

First Down: Texas +3 vs. Oklahoma State  3:30 PM EST

The Texas Longhorns probably should not have come away from Morgantown with a win, but last week's performance was a sign that this a team who has come together and simply refuses to lose.  Arguably the most important matchup in the Big XII this weekend, this week's game will likely decide which team plays in the Cotton Bowl, unless either team can upset Baylor in the coming weeks.  Oklahoma State has come on strong in the second half of this season, but I don't think they'd be a six point favorite on a neutral field, as this line would indicate.  Although the Longhorns have been very sketchy at home in the last few seasons under Mack Brown, DKR should be packed and rocking this weekend (not the norm in Austin), fueling the Horns to an upset victory.  Take the Burnt Orange and the points. 

Second Down: USC +4 vs. Stanford  8:00 PM EST

Stanford comes into this game feeling pretty good about themselves, as they are now the favorite to win the conference after last weekend's big home win against Oregon.  However, the Trojans have experienced a bit of a revival under Ed Orgeron, as they have won every game since he took the reigns.   USC will have all the motivation in the world in this one, as they have lost the last four meetings to the Cardinal, and have not won in Los Angeles since 2005.  This scenario reminds me a lot of the Texas vs. Oklahoma game earlier this season, and I'm not making the same mistake again.  USC ends Stanford's streak, catching the Cardinal in a hangover spot.   

Third Down: Texas Tech +28 vs. Baylor  7:00 PM EST

Baylor rolled against the Sooners last week, and Tech faltered at home once again in a big way, so the obvious thought is that this game should be a blowout. After all, Baylor has rolled through just about everyone this season.  Yet I think there is still a bit of fight in this year's version of the Red Raiders.  Now, I'm not saying that I think Texas Tech wins this outright, but I think they come out and keep it from getting ugly.  Give me Kliff's boys and the four touchdowns.  

Fourth Down: Auburn -3 vs. Georgia  3:30 PM EST 

Auburn is on a tear right now, while Georgia has underwhelmed this season due to injuries.  I'll be the first to tell you that I did not see anything like this coming for the Auburn Tigers, but they have been incredibly impressive in their last few games, even if they did come against middle-of-the-road SEC teams.  I don't see Auburn looking ahead in this one, as their QB Nick Marshall is a Georgia transfer.  It may not be a blowout like Auburn's last few games, but Gus Malzahn's gets the win here against an opponent they've only beaten once in their last seven tries.

Extra Point: Kansas State OVER 28 Points
The K-State offense has gelled over the last few weeks, and is rolling.  Though Texas Tech has some problems tackling, you have to give the Wildcats some credit for that performance last weekend.  Kansas State is averaging 34 points a game, and have gone over the total of 28 in four of their last five. Look for them to do it again here, against the dumpster-fire of the Big XII.

The Four To Score: 18-23-1
Extra Points: 4-5-1
Overall: 22-28-1

The Four To Score: Week 11

It Can't Get Worse Than Last Week

Last week was a new low point, going 0-5 here at The Four To Score.  Tons of close calls, but in the end, we just didn't get the job done.  No point in hiding from it, only thing to do now is get back on the horse and make some gains after defecating all over ourselves last weekend.  As it's homecoming weekend here, I've got some debauchery to partake in, so let's get into this week's picks and keep it short and sweet.

First Down: Texas Tech -2.5 vs. Kansas State

Texas Tech will bounce back here, after losing two in a row to the schools from Oklahoma.  Teams that get destroyed one week tend to come out with a fire lit under them the following, and Texas Tech got destroyed plus a little more last week.  Kansas State has been playing well of late, but they have lost both of their away games this season.  It may come down to be a field goal, but that will be good enough to get us to the window.  Suns up, Gun.....Yeah, there is no way in hell I'm saying that crap. 

Second Down: LSU +13 at Alabama

With how poorly Oregon is executing right now in Palo Alto, Alabama may very well be the unquestionable #1 team in the country come kickoff time on Saturday.  However, Alabama and LSU games tend to be slugfests, and the thirteen seems like way too many points here, given the recent history between these teams.  Outside of the National Championship game, every contest since 2007 has been decided by single digits.  Take the points, and watch these two squads knock the hell out of each other for sixty minutes. 

Third Down: UCLA +1.5 at Arizona

UCLA has undeniably been in a funk here, while Arizona has been rolling.  However, Arizona has only played one good team this year, and got shellacked in that one up in Seattle.  I don't trust B.J. Denker, and I can't trust a Wildcats team that has only played one good ball-club on the year.  UCLA has the better quarterback and defense in this matchup, and that should be plenty to get the victory here in Tucson.  After all, this is the same Bruins team that beat the tar out of Arizona last season. 

Fourth Down: Michigan -6.5 vs. Nebraska

Both of these teams forgot how to play the game of football last week, as Michigan got eviscerated in East Lansing, and Nebraska survived against Northwestern only because of Hail Mary.  These units are very inconsistent, but I think there is some value here at Michigan under a touchdown.  The Wolverines have taken care of business at home this season, winning every game but one by at least a touchdown.  Nebraska's one road game was a loss at Minnesota, and it wasn't pretty.  Give me the home team and a potent offense to bounce back after the sluggish performance against Michigan State.

Extra Point: UCLA at Arizona OVER 56.5

There will be points.  Lots of them. Book it. 

The Four To Score: Week 10

The Games May Suck, But These Picks Don't

Let's face it...this week's games are horrible.  In fact, some might even say they are worse than the jerseys Oregon State sported against USC this week, which really is saying something based on the level of "suck" the Beavers achieved Friday night.  Given the amount of crap that was put up on the board this week, it was tough finding some good numbers out there, kind of like finding an NFL game that doesn't involve a torn ACL.  Seriously, the amount of torn ACLs has gotten utterly ridiculous.  Before I get further off topic, here are this week's picks. 

First Down: Virginia Tech -4 at Boston College  12:00 PM EST

Beamer's boys are coming off a surprising loss to Duke, where the offense sputtered and only managed to put up 10 points.  Luckily for the Hokies, BC has given up points to everyone, surrendering at least 20 points in each of their last five contests.  Additionally, Logan Thomas and Beamer love playing the Golden Eagles, as they've beaten them each of the past five years.  You know the VT defense will always come to play, and they've been a very impressive unit so far this season, having only given up more than 20 points twice.   I'm banking that Logan Thomas and his offensive teammates can't play any worse than they did last week, so I'll lay the points with the staunch defense while the number posted on the board is the lowest it's been all week.

Second Down: Nebraska -5.5 vs. Northwestern  3:30 PM EST

Nebraska will be out to lay the wood this week after being upset last week in Minnesota, and there isn't a better team to do it against than Northwestern.  Northwestern has completely melted down since losing to Ohio State, as they've lost every game since that heartbreaker.  The Cornhuskers were rolling before losing to the Gophers, as they had won three straight, covering the spread every time.  Though the last two games between these two squads have been close ones, I expect the Huskers to get back on track this week.  Take the points and Big Red at a much better line than the opener of -7.

Third Down: Arkansas +8.5 vs. Auburn  6:00 PM EST

Raise your hand if you had Auburn as Alabama's biggest threat in the SEC West this season...Yeah, that's right, no one did.  People have been heaping praise on the Tigers after their upset win in College Station, but plenty of teams are capable of beating the Aggies and their non-existent defense this season.  Look, I'm not saying Auburn is a bad team, or that it got lucky against Johnny Football.  What I am saying is that there is no way they should be favored by more than a touchdown on the road against an Arkansas team that is coming off a bye week.  The off week was exactly Bielema and his boys needed after getting throttled in three consecutive contests, and they should come out fired up to pull the upset against the newly crowned Top 10 team.  Arkansas may win this one outright, but if they lose, it will be by a narrow margin.

Fourth Down: Miami +22 at Florida State  8:00 PM EST 

All week long people have been slamming the Hurricanes, describing them as the new Texas Tech, aka the most overrated team in the Top 10.  After all, they nearly lost their last two games against the lowly squads of Wake Forest and North Carolina.  If you looked at only those two games, and combined them with how well Famous Jameis is playing, of course this game looks like a blowout.  However, the Hurricanes are still an undefeated ball club, and you have to think that they've been looking ahead to this contest for the past two weeks.  Things can get pretty weird in rivalry games, and this is a gigantic number to post for a rivalry game featuring two undefeated ball clubs.  I don't think Miami can win this one outright, but I certainly think they can keep it within three touchdowns.  Give me the massive amount of points an "Da U." 

Extra Point: Arizona OVER 41.5 Points  3:30 PM EST 

California can't stop the run, as they are rated 90th in the country in Rushing Defense.  Arizona loves to run, as they have the 10th best Rushing Offense in the country, thanks in part to the best back in the country, Ka'deem Carey.  If you look at California's box scores this season, it's blatantly obvious that this defense can't stop anyone.  They've given up over 30 points in every contest, and have conceded over 41 in six of them.  On the other side, the Wildcats have gotten hot lately, as they have scored over 31 points in each of their last three games.  Arizona will pound the ball at will, and they should score just about every time in what should be a high-scoring matchup. 

The Four To Score: 16-16-1

Extra Points: 3-4-1

Overall: 19-20-1

The Four To Score: Week 9

The Band Journey Once Said: "Don't Stop Winning" 

Another week, another set of picks from The Four To Score going 3-2.  It seems darn near automatic now, given that we've gone 12-6-2 in the last four weeks.  But, you must never settle for complacency, and this week provides us yet another opportunity at getting an elusive undefeated weekend ATS.  Without further hesitation, here are this week's picks.   

First Down: Texas +2.5 vs. TCU; 7:30 PM EST

I'm not going to lie, I was very puzzled when this line opened TCU -3.  The Horned Frogs have been very unimpressive this season, and looked downright awful last week at Oklahoma State.  Texas is coming off its most impressive win of the season against Oklahoma, and had an extra week off to prepare for Gary Patterson's boys.  The Longhorns, which were once dead in the water, now have something to play for, and are a very different team than the one that lost to BYU and Ole Miss.  It should be a close one, but expect Mack Brown and Case McCoy to get the revenge win in Fort Worth. 

Second Down: UCLA +23.5 vs. Oregon; 7:00 PM EST

Another Oregon game, another decision based solely on principle.  This line opened up around Oregon -17, and has been bought up all the way to -23.5.  At that -17 number, Oregon probably has to be the play if there is one to be made there, but a 6.5 point difference makes this a completely different story.  UCLA will have some extra motivation on their side this weekend after struggling at Stanford last week, and their defense will be the best the Ducks have seen all season.  Oregon may be the best team in the country, but remember last week's play against them with Washington State to quell your worries. The Ducks should get the win, but the Bruins will get the cover thanks to the inflated margin.  

Third Down: Oregon State +5 vs. Stanford; 10:30 PM EST

The Beavers have gotten hot, and Sean Mannion is the best quarterback you know nothing about.  Since losing their season opener to Eastern Washington,  Oregon State has reeled off six straight wins, with four of them coming by double digits.  Individually, Mannion has been unreal, throwing for just under 3,000 yards and 29 TDs.  On the flip side, Stanford is in the tail end of its most difficult stretch of the season, having played three very tough opponents in Washington, Utah, and UCLA in the past three weeks.  Last year's game went down to the wire in Palo Alto, with the Cardinal edging out the Beavers after trailing by nine late in the third quarter.  You can expect this game to be very close once again, so take the points with the home team in Corvallis.   

Fourth Down: Oklahoma -6.5 vs. Texas Tech; 3:30 PM EST

Texas Tech comes into this game as one of the last unbeaten teams in college football, after running off seven consecutive wins to start the season.  However, the Red Raiders haven't played a solid team yet this season, and the last thing you went to take into Norman is team that isn't battle-tested.  Historically the home team has dominated this series, as the only road team to get a win since 2004 was Tech in 2011.  When the games have been played in Norman, the Sooners have had their way, usually winning by double digits.  Oklahoma is the more proven commodity, and they are under the key number, making this a no-brainer.  

Extra Point: UCLA OVER 24.5 PTS

The trend is all too common when it comes to Oregon.  They often get out to a big lead, the starters come out, and their opponent scores some garbage time points.  In their last two games, the Ducks have given up 24 or more, and even gave up 38 to Wazzu last weekent.  Although UCLA only scored 10 points last weekend, their offense has shown the capability to put up points this year (averaging 39.8 ppg), and I expect them to get some on the board before Oregon's second and third-stringers come in toward the end of the game.  

The Four To Score: 14-14-2

Extra Points: 3-3-1

Overall: 17-17-3

The Four To Score: Week 8

"Just Win, Baby!"

Let begin this week's column by saying I will gladly take a loss if it means my Horns smoked the Sooners in the Cotton Bowl.  That age-old adage of "never bet against your team" proved true last week, as Mack Brown and the boys came out and kicked in Oklahoma's teeth relentlessly for sixty minutes.  They proved me and the rest of the country wrong, and it was oh so glorious.  Despite that loss though, we had our third consecutive winning week here at The Four To Score, going 3-2 over the weekend, with the only other loss occurring in Washington.  Over the past three weeks, we've definitely been on fire like Daje Johnson's feet, going 9-4-2 in all of our plays, for a 60% winning clip.  The train is running full speed now, and we have no intention of it stopping.  

First Down: Clemson +3 vs. Florida State; 8 PM EST

Though Clemson has underwhelmed in previous weeks, lets not forget about that big win in Week 1 against Georgia.  This game against Florida State is very similar to that one, as the Tigers enter as primetime home underdogs once again.  Famous Jameis Winston has been fantastic for the seminoles this season, but this will be Florida State's first real test of the season.  Death Valley will be rocking just like it did when Georgia came town, and I'm expecting Jameis to get a bit rattled during his first experience in this kind of atmosphere.  Give me the more experienced Tajh Boyd and the points, as the home team in this game has won the last six outright. 

Second Down:  Washington State +40 vs. Oregon; 10 PM EST

This play is one based solely on principle.  Every line that has come out on the Ducks has been hammered by the public, and because the Ducks have kept covering, the books have pushed the lines higher and higher.  There is no way the Cougars should be getting 40 points here, as they are a fairly respectable 4-3 team, despite a big loss to Oregon State last week.  Remember they beat USC at the Coliseum, and gave Auburn all the could handle down in Alabama.  In their last three meetings, the Cougars haven't lost to the Ducks by more than 25 points.  Oregon should get an easy win, but I expect Washington State to keep it within the forty point margin, as teams coming off a big loss generally play much better the following week.

Third Down: Stanford -4.5 vs. UCLA; 3:30 PM EST

I love what Jim Mora and Brett Hundley have done down in UCLA this season.  However, this is not the spot to make a play on them.  Stanford is coming off an upset loss to Utah last week, meaning they are playing for their season this week against the Bruins.  If they lose to UCLA, their chance at a PAC-12 North division title is gone, as there is no way in hell that Oregon will lose two games this season.  Stanford has won the last five in this series, including two last season in back-to-back weeks.  David Shaw will have his team motivated, as Stanford comes out fired up to get the win and keep their season alive. 

Fourth Down: Notre Dame -2.5 vs. USC; 7:30 PM EST

The Trojans got us the cover at home against Arizona last week, but they are facing a much tougher test when they head to South Bend this weekend.  Though USC has had extra time to prepare for this week's contest, they are 2-7 in their last nine games ATS, and are 0-9 in their last nine road games ATS.  Notre Dame is coming off a bye week after beating a solid Arizona State team on a neutral field. Remember, that Sun Devil team is the one that beat the snot out of USC, and ended Lane Kiffin's career.  With how big Notre Dame is up front on defense, the Trojans' running game should struggle, and will it all be on quarterback Cody Kessler's shoulders.  USC may be better than they were when Kiffin is in charge, but they won't be good enough to get the win in South Bend.  The Irish win a close one at home, ending the streak of road teams dominating this series over the past four years. 

Extra Point: LSU vs. Ole Miss OVER 60 

In the last three contests between these two schools, LSU has put over 40 points on the board in each game.  This year's unit might be the better than all of the previous three, as the Tigers have put points up on everyone except the staunch Florida defense.  Ole Miss has given up 30 points three times this season, including 41 to Johnny Football last weekend.  The fact is that the Rebels can't stop an above average offense, let alone one as good as Texas A&M's.  LSU will probably get the cover, but the better play here is the OVER, as the Tigers might get into the 50's here, with Ole Miss putting some points on the board as well. 

The Four To Score: 11-13-2

Extra Points: 3-2-1

Overall: 14-16-3

"Houston...We have a problem."

Time To Call VY 

The Houston Texans have officially imploded.  After getting drubbed in San Fran last weekend, this was supposed to be the weekend that Schaub and the rest of the H-Town boys got back on track.  I mean, come on, St. Louis struggled against Jacksonville last week, and has looked horrible this season. Nearly everyone across the country had the Rams at the bottom of their power rankings heading into this week.  Then the teams took the field, and everything went to hell and a hand-basket in the blink of an eye.  Jeff Fisher's team came out and beat the Texans in every aspect of the game, revealing that Houston is spiraling completely out of control.  When you look at the tape and the stat lines, one thing is crystal clear: you can't blame the Texans' defense.  They gave up only 216 yards of offense today, yet the Rams put up 38 points.  Yes, it's evident that the blame is shouldered by the men on the other side of the ball for Houston, who put their defensive comrades in bad positions every week.  But the Texans have a great offensive line, and fantastic weapons at WR, TE, and RB.  Thus, in my opinion the blame falls solely on one position: quarterback.

If you've been keeping track at home, this was the fifth consecutive week that the Texans threw a pick-six.  Except this time it wasn't Schaub, but TJ Yates who did the deed.  Combined, the two have managed to throw more interceptions than touchdowns this season, and it's easy to see that the fan base has lost all faith in the two.  Hell, you could even hear cheers from the Houston fans when Schaub left the game with an injury today.  With the losses mounting and increasing unrest from Texans fans, there is one move that Houston's front office should make immediately, for a variety of reasons...signing Vince Young.  

Now although I am a University of Texas alum, I ask you to hear me out on this instead of simply disregarding my opinion as the dumb idea of a "homer."  First, the quarterback play can't get any worse than it already is in Houston, so there is nothing to lose by signing Vince.  Despite the falling out with Fisher, and the struggles in Philly, Young has won 60% of his starts in the NFL, and he looked like the VY of old earlier this preseason with the Packers.  Hell, the Packers GM even admitted that Vince would probably be the backup if they had signed him earlier in the offseason.  Secondly, this move would help the Houston office save face with its fan base, not destroy it.  Some have said that signing VY off the street would make it seem like everything is out of control in Houston.  News flash, Texans front office: IT IS OUT OF CONTROL.  By signing Young, you're bringing some excitement to town and satisfying the fan base, as the hometown boy will finally be suiting up for the team he's always wanted to play for.  Not to mention that plenty of Texans fans were clamoring for the team to draft him with the first overall pick after he took down USC in the Rose Bowl.  Vince would be fully invested in the Texans, and those of you who have followed his career have seen what can happen when the man is in his zone.  All you have to do is think back to his last two seasons at Texas, and his early years in Tennessee.  If he's given the opportunity to lead that offense, and they get a few wins under their belt, the sky could be the limit for the Texans despite their poor start.  What might be seen as some to be a band-aid fix could turn into a long term solution, as the Texans are loaded everywhere else.  If Vince were to succeed as the Texans quarterback this season, it COULD go down as the greatest move the franchise has ever made, from both on-and-off-the-field standpoints.

For those who might have lingering hesitations after the Tennessee fiasco and the Philly backup appearances, all you have to see is this tweet from earlier today:

@VinceYoung: Let them know VY is in shape and ready to go! I always loved my birth place and everyone who lives in it IM READY

The man wants this.  He wants the pressure of being under center in his hometown, he wants to be the one to take Houston to the top.  As a fan, how can you not want that after seeing the timid play of Schaub and Yates over the past few weeks, knowing full well that Vince can't do any worse than they have?  The ball is the Texans' court now; all they have to do is pick up the phone. 

The Four To Score: Week 7

Like Fletcher's Corny Dogs, Victory Tastes Good

The dynamite went boom in Week 6, as we went 4-1 against the number, and got our second consecutive winning week.  If not for those damn Sooners giving up a garbage time TD, we would have had a perfect week, but once again Bob Stoops put the screws to a Longhorn fan.  Thanks, Bobby, you're still a prick.  Despite our shortcomings early on in the season, we are now 6-2-2 over the last two weeks, a very respectable number for anyone in the business of CFB prognostication.  This week brings about my favorite game of every season, the Red River Shootout in Dallas.  Although this game is no longer the rivalry it once was when I was an undergrad (Thanks again, Mack), the weekend is still one of the best of the year, filled with incredible amounts of debauchery, fried foods, and wax cups full of beer.  Before I start rambling about all the glorious things you can find at the State Fair, here are this week's picks. 

First Down: Oklahoma -13.5 vs. Texas

What?!? A Longhorn fan betting against the Horns in the biggest game of the season?!? Yup, you're damn right.  This isn't about emotions, this is strictly business.  Bob Stoops always has his team ready for this game, and his boy's always take the field as if it's the last they will ever play.  The same can't be said for Mack Brown, who has a habit of clapping his way blowouts where his team is out of the game by halftime.  Texas has shown the world they can't compete with the big boys this season, and this Oklahoma defense should wreak havoc on Case McCoy.  Mack has only beaten Bobby once without Vince Young or Colt McCoy under center, and though this game may not be as bad as the past two, Oklahoma should still win handily.  Consider this the first nail in Mack's coffin. 

Second Down: Washington +14 vs. Oregon

This game is much more than just the battle of the two best helmets in the country.  Puddles better look out, as the Huskies are Oregon's first legitimate opponent of the season.  If you watched the game in Palo Alto last week, you saw that Washington was the better team on the night, and should've come away with the victory.  Stanford was lucky to escape with a victory, mostly because of how poorly the Huskies performed in the kick return game.  Keith Price is flat out balling right now, as he has returned to the form of his first two seasons on campus.  The Ducks have to travel to Washington this week, and though I have them as the top team in the country right now, there is no way they should be laying this many points against this good of a team.  Keep in mind, the Huskies only lost by 21 at Oregon last year, and they are a much better team this season.  Husky Stadium should be rocking, and Washington should keep it within the number, potentially even getting the outright win.  

Third Down: USC -6.5 vs. Arizona (Thursday night game)

Both teams are coming off a bye heading into this week's game, but these two teams are headed in opposite directions.  USC made the right move by firing Lane Kiffin, and though Ed Orgeron isn't the greatest interim head coach, the team should be headed in a positive direction now that they've gotten rid of that toxic Kiffin poison.  Arizona, on the other hand, still has BJ Denker under center, and anyone who watched him against Washington knows the Wildcats aren't going far with him under center.  He is extremely limited in the passing game, and should be the perfect matchup for a USC defense looking to get back on track after the debacle in Tempe.  It may not be pretty, but the Trojans should win by double digits in this revenge scenario.  

Fourth Down: LSU -6.5 vs. Florida

Don't get me wrong, I love Will Muschamp's defense.  However, I hate an inexperienced quarterback traveling to Death Valley.  Though Tyler Murphy had a pretty solid game against Arkansas at The Swamp last week, there is a big difference between the friendly confines of home, and the hostile atmosphere of Tiger Stadium.  LSU's defense is nowhere near as good as last year's unit, but they should have some success at home against Murphy, who is starting only his second game.  Mettenberger's numbers may not be as gaudy as they have been the last few weeks due to the stingy Florida defense, but he should produce just enough to get LSU backers the cover.  

Extra Point: Baylor 1H -9

Last week's extra point of Baylor OVER 49 might have been the easiest play in the history of the universe, as the Bears went over the total in the second quarter.  Art Briles' team is for real, and not only have they demolished every team they've gone up against, they've also hammered every line Vegas has set, as they have covered their last ten and gone over the total in 23 of their last 29!  Kansas State will probably be missing their top two receivers this week, and their defense gave up over thirty points to two unimpressive offenses in Oklahoma State and Texas.  Baylor should cover the 1H line easily again, and taking the full game at -17.5 might also be a strong play given their recent track record of blowing teams out.  Also, their uniform and helmet for last week's game (pictured above) was one of the filthiest I've ever seen in college football.  Other than beer drinking, it seems they are doing everything right in Waco these days.     

The Four To Score: 9-12-2

Extra Points: 2-2-1

Overall: 11-14-3

The Four To Score: Week 6

Breaking: Congress Still Sucks, College Football Does Not

Unlike our fellow citizens on Capitol Hill, we made some progress last Saturday, going 2-1-2 in our five picks of the week.  As our record indicates, we were just a few plays away from it being a 4-1 week, but we'll take nay kind of winning week after the dry spells we had previously encountered.  As always though, a winning week should not increase the size of your ego, but only the amount of scotch in your glass.  That being said, I've poured a mighty tall one to get me through this piece, so cheers to you and enjoy this week's picks.  

First Down: LSU -9.5 vs. Mississippi State

If you remember from our Week 1 post, Mississippi State is absolutely terrible against ranked opposition.  I'm talking the type of terribleness that can only be compared T.W. Samuel's whisky without any kind of mixer.  LSU nearly pulled the upset in Athens next week, and though they came up short, they proved themselves to be one of the top teams in the country.  The Tigers may not put up as many points as they did last week due to an improved Bulldogs defense, but I'm pretty confident that Mississippi State will struggle mightily in trying to keep up with Mettenberger.  It may not be pretty, but LSU should win comfortably by two touchdowns.

Second Down: Washington +8 vs. Stanford

As evidenced by my previous posts, I love the Washington Huskies this year.  They have completely put last year's debacle behind them en route to starting off the year undefeated.  Stanford once agains has one helluva ball club in Palo Alto this year, but Sarkisian and his boys had some success against the Cardinal up in Seattle last year, pulling the upset in the middle of the season.  All signs point to this being a very tight game, even though Stanford is out for revenge.  Give me the Huskies and the points, as Sarkisian has a good history of having his team ready to play against big-name opponents.

Third Down: Miami -5.5 vs. Georgia Tech

This is purely a situational play here, as I'm not completely sold on how good the Hurricanes are this year.  Al Golden's boys were able to beat Florida in a close one earlier this year, but it's hard to gauge the quality of this team because of how bad the rest of their opponents have been. But what I do know is that Miami has absolutely dominated Georgia Tech in recent history, winning the last four games in the series, three of which were by double digits.  It's clear that Golden's team has figured out how to stop the triple option that Georgia Tech relies so heavily upon.  The Hurricanes should be able to win by at least a touchdown at home against this familiar opponent. 

Fourth Down: Oklahoma -9 vs. TCU

Look at the schedule, and this has the makings of a trap game for OU as it's sandwiched between Notre Dame and Texas.  After all, TCU played LSU tough in the season opener, and they no longer have a quarterback controversy on their hands.  Yet the fact is that TCU hasn't beaten a quality opponent yet, while Oklahoma went up to South Bend last week and took care of business against the Golden Domers.  Old Bobby up in Norman has got his swagger back, and their defense is reminding me of those rabid Sooner units from the early 2000s when Rocky Calmus and Roy Williams were causing Chris Simms to soil himself every other snap.  Sooners get an easy win in Norman this weekend before the Red River Blowout.  

Extra Point:  Baylor OVER 49 Team Points

Last year's game was a boat race that saw the Bears put up 63 points in Morgantown.  Not much has changed this year, as Baylor has put up 69 points or more in every game it has played.  West Virginia's defense is better than last year's, but that's not saying much considering West Virginia couldn't stop anyone in the 2012 campaign.  Considering that they gave up 37 to Maryland though, Baylor should roll easily.  Sic Em Bears, as Art Briles will run it up trying to reach that magical number of 69 once again. 

The Four To Score: 6-11-2

Extra Points: 1-2-1

Overall: 7-13-3

The Four To Score: Week 5

Conference Races Begin This Week

The fourth week of the CFB season took its toll on us in every way possible.  Not only could we not find a half-decent game on the TV, but we were also unable to find a winner.  Yes, once again Ray Charles could have probably made some better picks than The Four To Score was able to muster up.  Florida and Tennessee, two teams extremely inept when the ball is on their hands, scoring exactly 48 points to cause a push was the icing on the feces cake.  Thankfully this weeks' slate of games is filled with a bunch of dandies, so if the well runs dry once again, at least there will be some good football on the tube.  If only I could translate some of that success from the NFL down to the college level...No excuses though, and here are my hopefully-not-completely-God-awful picks of the week.   

First Down: Washington -9.5 vs. Arizona

Home teams have dominated this series the past three seasons, with the visiting school losing by double digits in every contest.  Two of the games were absolute blowouts, and despite both these teams being 3-0, I expect this year's version to follow the trend.  You see, this Washington team looks much more like the 2011 squad, not the lame 2012 version.  Furthermore, the Huskies have played much better competition than the Wildcats this season. beating both Boise State and Illinois by double digits.  Arizona no longer has Matt Scott under center, and I'm not sold on current QB BJ Denker.  Washington will be seeking revenge after last year's drubbing in front of its rabid fans, and Arizona will have to make the long trip up to the Pacific Northwest.  This one will probably get out of hand early, as the Huskies win big.  

Second Down: LSU +3 vs. Georgia

The Tigers barely missed out on getting the cover last week by giving up a late score, but I think they will get the outright win this week in Athens.  Though they missed getting the ATS win, LSU moved to 3-0, and I'm still convinced they are the most complete team in the SEC West.  Georgia has given up points to every team it has faced this season, as even lowly North Texas was able to put 21 on the board last week between the hedges.  Zach Mettenberger is emerging right before our eyes, and Georgia hasn't shown me anything to make me think they can stop LSU's balanced attack.  Give me the better defense and the points in Athens this weekend.  

Third Down: Arizona State -4.5 vs. USC

There is no doubt that the Sun Devils had to change their bed sheets after last week's performance in Stanford.  Yup, Todd Graham and his boys went up to Palo Alto and got rick-rolled, as the outcome of the game was decided about twenty minutes after kickoff.  However, the Sun Devils have a very favorable matchup this week, despite the name on the scoreboard being USC.  The Trojans were underwhelming on offense once again, struggling to beat Utah State at in Los Angeles.  USC may have a great defense, but with Arizona State's ability to put up points at home, Lane Kiffin's offense will have to muster up some serious offense to keep pace.  The home team has dominated this series the past three years, and I expect the trend to continue, as the Sun Devils are 4-2 as home favorites dating back to last season.  Todd Graham and the Sun Devils bounce back at home, and get themselves back in the race for the PAC-12 South.  

Fourth Down: Ohio State -6.5 vs. Wisconsin

The Horeshoe. Primetime.  Braxton Miller is back.  Yes, everything is in favor of the Buckeyes in this giant Big Ten matchup.  Last year's game went to overtime at Camp Randall, and though Gary Andersen's boys have looked impressive early on, this just does not seem like the spot to back the Badgers.  Ohio State's defense is rounding into form, and with this spread dipping under the key number of 7, the value is on the Buckeyes.  Don't be surprised if this game opens up tight and stays close, but the Buckeyes should pull away late, as Braxton Miller will look to impress after his absence due to injury.

Extra Point: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma UNDER 50 

I am going to keep this short and sweet.  Last year's game finished with 43 points, with offenses led by Everett Golson and Landry Jones.  Neither of them return, and neither team has shown an ability to put up a ton of points on a consistent basis.  Both teams boast very solid defenses, and they should be the units that dominate this game.  Everything on paper says this should be a hard-fought, low-scoring game.  Hopefully the defenses do their jobs, and the UNDER easily hits. 

The Four To Score: 4-11 

Extra Points: 1-1-1

Overall: 5-12-1.......El Peor. 

The Four To Score: Week 4

The CFB Gods Have Frowned Upon Us

Last week was absolutely brutal for The Four To Score.  It was darker, and contained more punches to the gut than Sunday's episode of Breaking Bad.  First, Alabama gave up a meaningless, garbage time touchdown to leave us hooked by the line.  Then both Auburn and Arizona State failed to cover by a single score, and just when you thought it couldn't get any worse, UCLA and Nebraska failed to go over the total after scoring 59 points in the first three quarters.  Bo Pelini may have had some choice words for Husker fans after that Ohio State game a few years ago, but the only forceful language needed to be spoken this week should directed at him and his offense for failing to score in the final 37 minutes of the game.  You would think the CFB Gods would pay us back for enduring such misery by giving us a week full of juicy, enticing games.  Instead, they defecated on us some more and decided to give us a Week 3 schedule that can only be described as "El Peor."  That being said, here is the best of the worst. 

First Down: USC -6 vs. Utah State

I know, I know. Yes, this team is coached by Lane Kiffin, one of the biggest douches in football.  Yes, this team lost to Wazzu earlier this season, and burned the hell out of us in doing so.  However, they got back on track with a win at Boston College last week, and this defensive unit is still extremely solid.  The offense should get better with every week that passes, and Marqise Lee should start seeing more of the ball.  On the flip side, Utah State lost their other game against a PAC-12 foe earlier this season against in-state rival Utah.  The Aggies defense gave up 30 points to the Utes, and 20 to the Air Force Falcons.  I expect them to give up a considerable amount of points to the Trojans, and for the USC defense to keep Utah State in check.  For the love of God, Lane Kiffin, get us to the window! 

Second Down: Arizona State +6.5 vs. Stanford

Todd Graham's Sun Devils came up with a huge victory against Wisconsin last week, albeit with a controversial ending.  I said in last week's edition that this ASU team is probably the best in the PAC-12 South, and their come-from-behind victory made me an even bigger believer, as last year's team would have probably folded under such conditions.  Graham will certainly have his team up for their second big game in a row, against a Stanford team that has been surprisingly unimpressive so far this season.  The Cardinal could have just been going vanilla in the early weeks to save up for this game, but this week's only matchup between ranked opponents should go down to the wire.  

Third Down: LSU -17 vs. Auburn

Auburn may be 3-0, but they are also a young team, and they have to play at Tiger Stadium this week...at night.  The difference between day and night games at LSU is worth at least three points with the book, and Phil Steele goes as far to say the home field advantage is worth eight points at night.  Malzahn is doing a great job of bringing this team back from the depths Gene Chizik took it to, but they will be outmanned and outclassed on Saturday night in Baton Rouge.  When all is said and done, LSU could be lifting the crystal ball in Pasadena.  The big guns in Vegas love this LSU team, and they very well may be the more complete team after seeing Alabama give up 42 points to Texas A&M last week.  If there was ever a time to lay a lot of chalk in the SEC, its on the LSU Tigers at home, under the lights, against a team who has gone 2-7 ATS as a road dog the last two years.  Geaux Tigers, and leave the Mad Hatter antics at home, Les.

Fourth Down: Arkansas +2.5 vs. Rutgers

Woo Pig only has one thing on their mind this week: REVENGE.  Arkansas fell into a deep, dark abyss last season, losing to Rutgers at home along the way.  With Bret Bielema now in charge though, the Razorbacks are 3-0 and showing signs of life again.  Though the Scarlet Knights are not an SEC opponent, they provide Arkansas a perfect opportunity to show the country that this year's team is vastly improved from the one that took the field las season.  Rutgers played Fresno State very tough in the season opener, but they are only 5-9 ATS as a home favorite over the past four seasons.  Arkansas has all the motivation in the world here, and should edge out a victory thanks to the fact that they actually have a competent coach leading their program again.  Oh, and for those of you who doubt Bielema, I give you this: 

Yeah, this dude out-kicked his coverage by a country mile.  How can you doubt this man's ability after seeing that? 

Extra Point: Florida vs. Tennessee UNDER 48

Since the start of the 2012 season, Will Muschamp's defense has only given up more than 20 points on three occasions: to E.J. Manuel's Florida State; to Teddy Bridgewater's Louisville; and to Miami last week.  As you can see, it takes a pretty special talent at quarterback to put up points on Florida, and I don't see first-round NFL talent under center for the Volunteers this season.  The Gators will be out for blood after losing to Miami two weeks ago, and Tennessee is going to be the sacrificial lamb.  This should be a low-scoring, physical contest with the Florida defense attacking the Vols like rabid dogs, and Jeff Driskel keeping his own offense from scoring too many points as well.  

The Four To Score: 4-7

Extra Points: 1-1

Overall: 5-8

The Four To Score: Week 3

It's Finally Here... Darth Saban vs. Johnny Moneyball 

Everyone's "Game Of The Year" has finally arrived, and with a few other great matchups out there, The Four To Score should get back on track easily after a brutal Week 2.  There is no need to shy away from what happened last week.  When you're in the business of predicting football games, you're bound to get you're tail kicked every once in awhile, that is just the harsh reality of the business.  Thanks to the talents of Devin Gardner, and the complete disregard for ball security from West Virginia and Oklahoma, The Four To Score ended up an underwhelming 2-3 for the week, which at least isn't as bad as Jeff Driskel in the red-zone, or the Texas defense against a simple option play.  Fear not though, as this week's games have me more confident than Nick Saban in a revenge game.  

First Down: Alabama -7.5 vs. Texas A&M

This is the absolute lock of the week.  As mentioned above, Nick Saban has every reason to be confident heading into a revenge game, as he has never lost one.  For those of you with hazy memories, all you have to look back to is the 2011 BCS National Championship, where Saban and Alabama drew an actual "red line" at half field, and refused to let LSU cross it.  While Johnny Manziel is a gamer, he will bet outmatched this year due the departure of some of Texas A&M's key offensive players from last year (Luke Joekcel and Ryan Swope to name a few), and the fact that Saban had an entire offseason to prepare for the Texas A&M spread offense.  Additionally, Texas A&M's defense gave up over 500 yards to Rice, and 390 to Sam Houston State.  If that doesn't tell you what's going to happen when they go up against two-time BCS National Champion A.J. McCarron and Co., who are 7-2 over the past two years as a road favorite, you're blinder than USC and Texas fans who still support Lane Kiffin or Mack Brown.  The hype behind this game leads people to believe it's the "Game Of The Year", but really it will just be a comfortable, double-digit win for Alabama.  All hail Darth Saban.

Second Down: Colorado +8.5 vs. Fresno State

You can now pick your jaw up off the ground after seeing Colorado as my Second Down pick.  This Colorado team is vastly improved from last year's squad, and will be looking for redemption after getting stomped by Fresno State last year.  Speaking of the Bulldogs, they've been very underwhelming this year, as they nearly lost their home opener against Rutgers after being projected by some to be a BCS-buster this year.  After a string of terrible seasons, bettors are going to be very hesitant on Colorado solely because of how bad they were ATS under previous coaches.  But Coach Mike MacIntyre was phenomenal ATS in his last two years at San Jose State, going 19-6 against the number.    Take the points and the team out for revenge. 

Third Down: Arizona State -5.5 vs. Wisconsin

Coming into this game, neither team has allowed its opponents to get on the scoreboard.  That will all change late Saturday night once this Pac-12 vs. Big Ten matchup gets under way.  After seeing USC soil its pants last weekend (to my demise), there is now no doubt that the Sun Devils are the best team in the Pac 12 South.  Under Todd Graham last year, Arizona State went 8-5 ATS, but more importantly they went 4-1 as a home favorite, the scenario in play here.  Led by junior QB Taylor Kelly, this offense should be able to put up points on every opponent they play this year.  On the other side, you can always expect Wisconsin to be solid in the fundamentals of the game.  Yet this team is too one-dimensional for my liking in this big game, as it relies far too heavily on its ground game.  Lay the points here, as the Sun Devils should get their first win over a ranked opponent under Todd Graham.   

Fourth Down: Auburn -5.5 vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State makes its second appearance in The Four To Score, and once again, they are on the wrong side of the action.  The Bulldogs looked terrible in their opener against Oklahoma State, mustering up next to nothing on the offensive end.  Contrast that to Auburn, a team who is now on the upswing now that Guz Malzahn is holding the reins.  The former OC under Chizik has come back to Auburn after a single season at Arkansas State, where he went 9-4 ATS.  The Tigers are nowhere near the 2010 team in terms of skill, but they are improving under Malzahn (especially on the offensive side of the ball), and should be able to get the cover at home against a very bad Mississippi State team.  

Extra Point:  Nebraska vs. UCLA OVER 69

Last year's version of this game saw 66 points put up on the board, and I expect this year's edition to easily get into the 70s or 80s.  Brett Hundley and Taylor Martinez are both back to lead their high-powered offenses, but both teams struggle mightily on defense.  The Huskers gave up 34 points to Wyoming in their season opener, and the Bruins gave up loads of points last year when they went on the road.  This might be the most fun game to watch all week, as both teams could easily get into the 40s in what should be a very close game. 

The Four To Score: 4-4

Extra Points: 1-0

Overall: 5-4