2013 Texas Longhorns Preview By The Numbers: Part 1

Can The Horns Win It All? A Look At The Numbers That Matter

Mack Brown's unit is receiving a lot of hype ahead of this upcoming season, despite an underwhelming 9-4 season last year.  Recently, Phil Steele went so far as to tab the Longhorns as the fourth best team in the country in his preseason rankings.  Others remain skeptical though, and with good reason when you consider how this team has played over the last three seasons.  The variance in opinions on this team got me interested in trying to decipher what it takes to win a national championship, and then using that information to see whether Texas is a true contender for the 2013 BCS Championship.  Rather than just look at the schedule and the depth chart, I decided to look at what doesn't lie: NUMBERS. 

Over the years of analyzing statistics for sports wagering purposes, I've learned that the Yards Per Play (YPP) statistic is one of the most useful tools available for truly gauging a team's performance on both sides of the ball.  YPP is much better to use than the Yards Per Game (YPG) statistic, because it shows which offenses and defenses are more efficient, and thus better overall.  This is especially true in college football, as teams that run up-tempo offenses are going to run more plays, and inevitably gain more yards.  After sifting through the numbers of recent seasons, the recipe for winning a title is quite apparent. Included below are statistics for every BCS National Champion since the 2004-2005 season.

      2004 USC Trojans: 6.2 Yards For, 4.1 Against, +2.1 Differential

      2005 Texas Longhorns: 7.0 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +2.8 Differential

      2006 Florida Gators: 5.9 Yards For, 4.3 Against, +1.6 Differential

      2007: LSU Tigers: 5.7 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +1.5 Differential

      2008 Florida Gators: 6.7 Yards For, 4.4 Against, +2.3 Differential

      2009 Alabama Crimson Tide: 5.8 Yards For, 4.1 Against, +1.7 Differential

      2010 Auburn Tigers: 7.0 Yards For, 5.2 Against, +1.8 Differential

      2011 Alabama Crimson Tide: 6.4 Yards For, 3.0 Against, +3.4 Differential

      2012 Alabama Crimson Tide: 6.6 Yards For, 4.0 Against, +2.6 Differential

      Averages: 6.4 Yards For, 4.2 Against, 2.2 Differential

When you look at the numbers on the whole, two major things stick out for determining what wins championships.  First, every champion has had a YPP Differential of at least 1.5.  Second, every champion except the 2010 Auburn Tigers gave up a maximum of 4.4 YPP on defense.  The 2011 Alabama Defense, which some consider as the best of all time, should be considered an outlier at the opposite end of the spectrum.  Thus, the trophy-winning recipe is fairly simple in terms of YPP: a differential of 1.5, and a defense is in the low 4's in terms of YPP.  

Now that we've figured out what champions are made of, it's time use that information and apply it to this year's version of the Texas Longhorns.  In order to get a historical sense of how Texas has done in terms of YPP, I've included those statistics for every year since the 2004-2005 season.  

      2004 Texas: 6.2 Yards For, 4.7 Against, +1.5 Differential

      2005 Texas: 7.0 Yards For, 4.2 Against, +2.8 Differential

      2006 Texas: 5.8 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +0.8 Differential

      2007 Texas: 6.0 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +1.0 Differential

      2008 Texas: 6.4 Yards For, 5.0 Against, +1.4 Differential

      2009 Texas: 5.4 Yards For, 3.7 Against, +1.7 Differential

      2010 Texas: 5.2 Yards For, 4.6 Against, +0.6 Differential

      2011 Texas: 5.2 Yards For, 4.5 Against, +0.7 Differential

      2012 Texas: 6.2 Yards For, 5.7 Against, +0.5 Differential

      Averages: 5.9 Yards For, 4.7 Against, +1.2 Differential   

When you look at Texas' numbers over the years, you realize that they fit the mold of our championship recipe.  The years in which Texas was in contention for (2004, 2008), or played for the National Championship (2005, 2009), their differential was right around 1.5 or better.  Notably, the two teams that were in contention for the title but did not make it (2004, 2008) both had defensive YPP's higher than the 4.5 threshold.

Looking ahead though, it becomes quite obvious what Texas needs to do to be in contention to lift the crystal ball next year: keep the offense trucking along and IMPROVE THE DEFENSE.  Yes, the offense struggled at times last year, but the 6.2 YPP is going to win you a ton of games.  Hell, it was 0.8 YPP better than the 2009 team that played for the BCS National Championship and had Colt McCoy running the show! With nine starters returning on offense, an experienced offensive line, and one of the best backfields in the country, you have to figure that the offensive production won't decrease. 

Thus, from a numerical standpoint, Texas' chances at playing in Pasadena hinge solely on the defense improving upon their horrible 2012 season.  The Longhorns finished 72nd in Defensive YPP last year, in what turned out to be the worst defensive performance in the history of the program.  It was so bad, that it was a minimum of 0.7 YPP worse than any other Texas team since Vince Young was under center.  Odds are that the defense can't get any worse than last season,  so what kind of numbers do we need to see to have Texas make a run? If the Offensive YPP stays roughly the same at 6.2, a Defensive YPP of 4.7 would give us a +1.5 Differential, the threshold for every BCS National Champion since 2003-2004.  Last year's defense was on the field for roughly 71 plays per game, and if you carry that number over to this season, Texas will need to only give up 333.7 YPG to achieve a 4.7 YPP.

That should definitely be manageable from both a historical, and current standpoint.  From the Texas statistics listed above, the Longhorns surrendered less than 333.7 YPG in six of the nine seasons I included.  Additionally, in Manny Diaz's first season, the Horns only gave up 306.1 YPG.  Though his defense struggled mightily last year after Jordan Hicks went down with an injury (Texas gave up over 570 YPG in three of the four games immediately following Hicks' injury) , Diaz has proven in the past that he can put up staunch defensive numbers. With nine starters returning, lots of turnover at the quarterback position in the Big XII, and only two difficult road games, all signs are pointing toward a turnaround for the Texas defensive unit.

Final Verdict:  From my analysis, I'm fairly confident in predicting that Texas will contend for the BCS National Championship this season.  The offense shouldn't see their YPP decrease, and the 4.7 Defensive YPP is more than manageable when you look at the schedule, and the number of players returning from last year.  Adding to my belief that a 4.7 Defensive YPP is manageable is the fact that if you exclude the four games immediately following Hicks' injury last season, the Defensive YPP for Texas was 4.64.  If the Defensive YPP falls to the low 4's, then there is no reason this team should not be playing for it all in Pasadena come January.  Based on what the numbers tell me, the 33/1 that Vegas is currently offering on Texas to win the BCS National Championship seems like an extremely tempting play.

Be on the lookout for the second half of this 2013 Texas Longhorn Preview By The Numbers, where I'll analyze the spreads already offered by Vegas for each Texas game.  Hope you enjoyed the read, and let me know what you think in the comments area below.                  

  

Confederations Cup: Brazil vs. Italy

Azzurri Looks To Avoid Semi-Final Match vs. Spain

The final games of Group A will be played simultaneously on Saturday at 3:00 PM EST, though only one game truly matters as Japan and Mexico have already been eliminated.  With both Brazil and Italy tied atop the group at six points, the outcome of this game will determine who faces Spain in the semi-finals.  As things stand right now, Brazil would win the group because of their superior goal differential.  Thus, the scenarios are easily apparent: Brazil can win the group with a draw or win, while Italy must beat Brazil to win the group and avoid a semi-final match against Spain.  

Because it must beat Brazil to win the group, some might think that Italy is going to throw caution to the wind in order to come out victorious.  After conceding three times to Japan though, the Azzurri's attentions have to be directed to their back line.  Italy is known for it's defensive soccer, and I expect their entire focus to be on turning out a strong defensive effort against the host nation.  Remember, Italy is the nation that birthed Catenaccio, and is more prone to winning games 1-0 than 4-3. Expect to see the Italians lay back and absorb Brazil's attack for most of the game, then break on the counter quickly when they gain possession.  Not having Andrea Pirlo on the pitch, who is out with a calf injury, will definitely affect Italy's ability to possess the ball, and create attacking chances.   Unless Brazil gets a lead early on, don't expect to see a Pirlo-less Italy recklessly throwing numbers up the pitch until late in the game.

On the other side of the pitch, Brazil only needs a draw to win the group and face the runner-up of Group B, which will most likely be Uruguay.  With there being no need to press the issue against Italy, expect to see the Brazilians possess the ball with some caution, as they won't want to leave themselves exposed to the Italian counter-attack when they give up the ball.  Couple that approach with a back four that hasn't conceded a goal yet in the tournament, and you have a recipe for a low-scoring game.

Prediction:  Based on the scenarios in play, this game screams DRAW to me.  The host nation's number one goal for this game has to be keeping Italy from finding the back of the net, as it guarantees Brazil winning the group.  With both teams also putting defense as a priority for this game, you have to think this will be a low-scoring affair that is decided by no more than a goal.  

Draw +280

Under 2.5 Goals. 

         

Aaron Hernandez Murder Investigation

A Rush To Judgment?

News reports are coming in left and right regarding the ever-evolving Aaron Hernandez murder investigation.   Earlier today, it was revealed that some surveillance video cameras at his home had been intentionally smashed, along with a cell phone.  Reports are also stating that Hernandez had his house scrubbed clean by a team of house cleaners.  Additionally, a civil lawsuit has been filed against Hernandez by a man who is claiming that the New England Patriots' TE shot him outside of a Florida strip club in February.  Needless to say, the more news that breaks, the worse it looks for Aaron Hernandez.  

Because I'm currently a law student, I have a bit more interest in legal stories that are tied into the sports world.  I'll be honest, my first reactions when the story broke were not shock or disbelief.  In fact, my thoughts were more along the lines of: "Maybe this will give my fellow law students a break from drooling all over themselves while they wait for SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the United States) opinions."  Seriously, nothing gets the average law student more jazzed than upcoming SCOTUS opinions.  It's as bad as the days when teenage girls were anticipating the next Twilight movie release.  Outside of this initial reaction though, I've been able to compile a few thoughts about this very intriguing investigation. 

1. Take what you're hearing on the news with a grain of salt.  Today's media is so sensationalized that the game is all about who's first, not who's right.  Don't believe me? All you need to do is think back to how various news outlets covered the Boston Marathon Bombing.  
2. The public courtroom doesn't go by the same set of rules as an actual courtroom.  If Hernandez is charged with murder, this trial is going to get more ESPN coverage than Tim Tebow (unless Tim Tebow becomes a star witness, which would cause ESPN's collective head to explode).  We're going to hear people condemn this man, offer their opinions on what evidence will do him in, etc.  Just remember that the rules of the actual courtroom are different than the public's courtroom, i.e. there may be evidence you may read or hear about that will be precluded from court.  Should Hernandez end up in court, let's allow the actual court process to play out before passing judgment.  
3. Aaron Hernandez probably isn't playing much football this year, if any at all.  The way things stand right now, things don't look good for the Patriots' TE.  Depending on how this story evolves, I could see two things potentially happening.  First, if Hernandez is charged with murder, his season is automatically over.  I can't envision him playing a down of football while being accused of murder.  Second, depending on where this story goes and how bad it gets, the Pats could just release Hernandez altogether.  This could become a PR nightmare the longer it drags on, and it might just be in New England's best interest to cut ties.  
4. Tim Tebow needs to "carpe diem" the hell out of this situation.  Gronkowski can't get off the operating table, and Hernandez might be facing some very serious legal issues.  If there was ever a time for Tebow to move to TE, this is it.  A move right now could change the trajectory of his career dramatically depending on Gronkowski's health issues and Hernandez's legal troubles.

I have to admit, the things being said on the news sound pretty terrible for Aaron Hernandez.  That being said, we don't know all the facts to this case at this point, and should refrain from passing judgment at this time.  Nonetheless, this will be a great story to follow over the next few weeks and months, and is a great topic for discussion.  Let me know your thoughts on the Hernandez situation in the comments below.  

NBA Finals Games 6 & 7 Preview

Something Has To Give

The 2013 NBA Finals thus far has played out like Rocky and Apollo in the 15th round of Rocky II.  One team throws a giant haymaker, only to have it countered by an equally powerful punch the next game.  Neither side has yielded to the other, and we stand in the exact same position we were in back in 2011: a Texas team heading back to Miami with a 3-2 advantage over the Heat.  This series has been far more intriguing to me than the 2011 NBA Finals though, and when you look at the history and story-lines going into these last two games, you realize that something major is going to have to give for one of these teams to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

The Bounce-Back Theory:  If you've been watching at home, you know that no team has won back-to-back games in this series.  When you dig a bit deeper into these teams' records from this season, it becomes obvious why neither team has won two in a row.  First, the Miami Heat are 12-0 after a loss, dating back to January.  Not only that, but the Heat have covered the spread every time in that 12-0 stretch.  Whenever this Miami team loses, it comes back big the next night.  Then you take a look at the San Antonio Spurs season, and you see that they are 19-1 in games following a loss when Tim Duncan plays.  The Spurs will have to win consecutive games, including a near-impossible situation in Game 6, to avoid a Game 7.  On the other hand, the Heat will have to win consecutive games at home against a team who doesn't lose consecutive games.  Something has to give.

Closeout & Must-Win Games:  The Spurs can end the Heat's season on Tuesday night in a scenario that they do well in.  San Antonio has been fantastic in series-clinching games this season, as they are undefeated in closeout games.  For an even bigger and more historical perspective, the Spurs have only lost one closeout game in their five NBA Finals appearances, although that could change Tuesday.  On the other side of the aisle, the Heat have not lost a "win or go home" game since their Game 6 loss to Dirk & Co. in the 2011 Finals.  In must-win games since then, LeBron has come up huge for the Heat, scoring more than thirty points in every contest.  So what is it going to be? Will Tim Duncan and the Spurs, the team who has never lost an NBA Finals series, beat the Heat once in two games that LeBron thrives in?  Or will the Heat's streak in must-win games succumb to the Spurs incredible record in closeout games? Something has to give. 

Danny Green & The Spurs 3-Point Shooting vs. Miami Defense at Home:

Green has been hotter from behind the arc than Kate Upton in a swimsuit pictorial.  Not only has he set the record for most three-point shots made in an NBA Finals, but he's made an insane 65.7% of his attempts from deep.  No one saw this type of performance coming, as the potential NBA Finals MVP was at 80/1 to win the award before the series started.  He hasn't been alone though, as the Spurs have shot 50% or better from behind the arc in three of the five games this series. The three-point shot has been instrumental in getting the Spurs their 3-2 advantage, but there is reason to believe that their hot shooting from deep could end in Games 6 and 7.  Miami's defense was absolutely terrible in the three games in San Antonio, but they are a much better defensive unit at home.  On the road this series, the Heat gave up 106.6 points per game.  Yet at home, Miami has only given up 88 points per game.  More importantly though, they have been much better at defending the three-point shot on their home court, limiting the Spurs to a clip of 39.5%.  Contrast that with the games in San Antonio, where the Spurs shot 55.9% from behind the line, and it's evident how much better Miami is defensively when they are on their home court, especially at defending the three.  This match-up could very well be the one that decides how this series winds up.  Something has to give. 

Given all these statistics, match-ups, and situations that are in play, we should be in for an epic conclusion to this NBA Finals.  Hope you enjoyed this blog post, and let me know how you think this series will end.

Bonus Nugget:  In case you were wondering just how tight this series is, Vegas has this series as a dead-heat right now, even though the Spurs hold a 3-2 advantage.  Current lines from bookmakers indicate Vegas sees Miami as the slight favorite, with a 53% chance to win the series. 

2013 FIFA Confederations Cup Preview and Predictions

Brazil Looks To Regain Form, Spain Tries To Keep The Throne

The 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup is finally upon us, with host nation Brazil ready to show the world that everything is good to go for the summer of 2014.  Though this competition is mainly used as a rehearsal for host countries to prepare for the much larger and more prominent World Cup, it also provides the tournament participants to gain some invaluable experience against quality opposition.  This year is no different, as the likes of Brazil, Spain, Italy, Mexico, and Uruguay are all vying for the trophy.  Also competing are Japan, Nigeria, and Tahiti, with each hoping to pull their best United States impression and make a surprise appearance in the final.  While the 2009 final between Brazil and the United States was a memorable one, no one can argue that the world wants to see the host nation meet Spain in this year's final.  The talent on the field for that match would be absolutely insane, and the current soccer kings would be taking on the team they took the crown from.  A lot of matches must be played before that can happen, so let's begin our preview by analyzing the teams in each group.

Group A

Brazil

Odds To Win Group: 8/13

Odds To Win Tournament: 3/2

Matches: 6/15 vs. Japan @ 3:00 PM EST; 6/19 vs. Mexico @ 3:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Italy @ 3:00 PM

The pressure is on for coach Luiz Felipe Scolari and the Selecao to get their act together after a string of uninspiring performances.  Since taking over command of the squad in late November of 2012, Scolari's squad has only managed one win in their preparations for 2014, a 4-0 thrashing of lowly Bolivia.  Other than that, Brazil has drawn four times and lost a game to England.  Perhaps this lack of wins is a result of less pressure being on the players, as the team is automatically qualified for the 2014 World Cup as the host nation and does not have to go through the rigors of CONEMBOL qualifying.  While that specific pressure to qualify is not present, the pressure to impress the fans at home will always be present, regardless of who is playing or coaching.  Soccer is life in Brazil, and merely making it to the final would not be enough to satisfy Brazilians considering the tournament is being played on their home turf.  

Though the pressure of an entire nation is on their shoulders, there is plenty of talent to spread it around to.  Scolari's team for the tournament includes world-class talents in Dani Alves, David Luiz, Oscar, and Fred to name just a few.  Even with such a stacked squad, all eyes will be on Neymar, the wonderkid who just signed a five-year deal with Barcelona.  Because he resisted the temptation to ply his trade in Europe for so long, much of the world has only seen him play as a member of the national team.  That will all change this summer, as Neymar's every move will be watched by the world from here on out.  While I do have some reservations about how he will handle the pressure with his new club, I think the comfort of playing in his home country will allow Neymar to have a great tournament.

Despite the immense talent on the roster, some fans of the game may think that Brazil's most recent results show that the team is more vulnerable than ever before.  While the lack of wins may carry some weight, history carries more in my opinion.  The fact is that Brazil has never finished worse than second in a major tournament it has hosted (World Cups and Copa Americas).  If you want to go one step further, the Selecao has never finished worse than third in any World Cup played on South American soil.  This team has always thrived when playing in front of its home fans, and this tournament should be no different.  

Group Prediction: 1st

  

Mexico

Odds To Win Group: 6/1

Odds To Win Tournament: 9/1

Matches: 6/16 vs. Italy @ 3:00 PM EST; 6/19 vs. Brazil @ 3:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Japan @ 3:00 PM

Like Brazil, El Tri has struggled mightily in 2013,and just got their first win of the year in a qualifier at Jamaica.  Mexico has had such a tough go of it lately that they haven't even scored in qualifiers at Estadio Azteca, their home fortress.  The win in Kingston might be just what Mexico needed though, and victories in their upcoming games against Panama and Costa Rica could give Mexico much-needed momentum heading into the Confederations Cup.

Mexico has been on a tear in recent international tournaments, and coach Jose Manuel de Torre needs El Tri  to continue that in Brazil to keep his job secure.  A look back at their recent tournament performances reveals that Mexico may be in the middle of their "Golden Age" of soccer.  They won the 2011 Gold Cup to qualify for this tournament, finished first in the 2011 U-17 World Cup and third in the 2011 U-20 World Cup, and capped it off by winning gold in London at the 2012 Olympics.  Yet more draws or losses in qualifying, and a bad showing in Brazil could mean the end for El Tri's current manager.  The talent is there for Mexico to get out of its group though, and the team's form and chemistry should only get better as June wears on with how many games and practice sessions they are getting in.  El Tri's strength is in its width, and will want to get the ball outside to Andres Guardado and Pablo Barrera to start their attacks.  When it comes to finishing, Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez is lethal any time he gets his foot on a ball in the box, and is a nightmare for defenders due to how well he moves off the ball.  Simply put, the man has a sixth sense for being in the right spot at the right time, and makes the most of the opportunities that come his way. After all, he did score 10 goals in 22 appearances for Manchester United this year.  Mexico does need its central defenders to be at its best though against Italy and Brazil, and needs Aldo de Nigris to score a few goals to take some of the load off Chicharito's back.  It would be even better for El Tri if Giovani dos Santos could get back into the starting eleven now that Mexico's dispute with his club team has ended.

The tournament schedule sets up well for Mexico, despite them being in the tougher of the two groups.  They open with their two toughest games against Italy and Brazil, before playing their final group game against Japan.  Brazil at home is daunting, so Mexico's best chances at points will be in its first and third games.  It's well documented that Italy is a slow-starter in international tournaments, and they haven't won their opening game in a Euro Cup or World Cup since 2006.  The Asian champions won't be sacrificial lambs by any means, but any team would much rather face them than Brazil for a trip to the semifinals.  This setup is extremely similar to that of the 2009 version of the Confederations Cup, where the United States defeated Egypt 3-0 and Italy lost Brazil by an identical margin to send Sam's Army into the semis.  El Tri's recent form is concerning, but you can't ignore how this team plays in a tournament format.  In addition to the tournament successes in the last few years, Mexico has advanced out of its group in every World Cup that it has qualified for since 1980.  This team knows how to get out of its group, and a favorable schedule has me backing them to advance to the semifinals.

Group Prediction: 2nd      

  

Italy

Odds To Win Group: 5/2

Odds To Win Tournament: 13/2

Matches: 6/16 vs. Mexico @ 3:00 PM EST; 6/19 vs. Japan @ 6:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Brazil @ 3:00 PM

Italy is coming off an impressive showing in the 2012 Euro Cup, finishing as runner-up to the number one team in the world, Spain.  The team didn't lose a game until the final, and the mercurial Mario Balotelli wowed spectators around the world with his attacking prowess.  Since then, the Italians have climbed to the top of their World Cup qualifying group with four wins and one draw.  Throw in two friendly draws against Brazil and the Netherlands, and you have a team who hasn't lost a game against quality opposition since late 2012.

Coach Cesare Prandelli is relying on many of the same players who took Italy to the brink of glory last summer.  Familiar names like Montolivo, Chielleni, De Rossi, and Marchisio will all be making appearances in Brazil.  Once again though, Italy will depend heavily on team captain Gianluigi Buffon, Andrea Pirlo, and Mario Balotelli.  Buffon has been Italy's goalkeeper since the 2002 World Cup qualifiers, and is one of the best shot-stoppers of our generation.  Then you have Pirlo, who is an absolute joy to watch.  He is by no means flashy, and is nowhere near being the best athlete on the field.  The man has a feel for the game that is unparalleled though, and pulls the strings for Italy in a manner that most central midfielders could only dream of.  He dictates the pace of the game and orchestrates Italy's attack so well by creating for others that you barely notice the class he is exhibiting.  One last thing that must be said about Pirlo is the threat he poses from set pieces.  If he hits a spot kick the way he wants to, odds are that the keeper isn't getting to it.  Enjoy watching Andrea Pirlo while you can, as the 2014 World Cup will most likely be the last time he plays for the Azzurri, and he could retire from soccer altogether.  Finally, you have the imposing Mario Balotelli.  When he wants to be the best player on the pitch, he often is.  Other times, you can get a lackadaisical, uninspired performance.  You might even see him sent off the pitch, like in his most recent game against the Czech Republic.  He could single-handedly fire Italy to the finals, or be part of the reason his team doesn't get out of their group.  You never know what you will get from Balotelli, and that is part of the fun of watching him.

Considering that all the key parts from the 2012 Euro Cup run are back for this tournament, you think they would be a lock to get out of their group.  Yet Italy is a different team when they leave their continent.  They have never won a World Cup when leaving the continent, and have struggled mightily in recent tournaments not played in Europe.  They played very poorly in the 2002 World Cup, and failed to get out of their group in both tournaments played in South Africa.  Italy only managed two wins in all three competitions combined, and lost two games per tournament.  The pressure to perform may also be lacking, given how well they performed last summer.  Don't be surprised if we see a repeat of the 2009 Confederations Cup, where Italy loses to Brazil in their final group game and is eliminated on tie-breaker. 

Group Prediction: Third

Japan

Odds To Win Group: 10/1

Odds To Win Tournament: 33/1

Matches: 6/15 vs. Brazil @ 3:00 PM EST, 6/19 vs. Italy @ 6:00 PM; 6/22 vs. Mexico @ 3:00 PM

Japan recently became the first team to qualify (not including host-nation Brazil) for the 2014 World Cup after tying Australia at home.  No longer having to worry about qualification, Japan is free to focus solely on getting out of their Confederations Cup group.  Opening up the tournament against Brazil is an unenviable task, especially when you consider that Brazil thrashed Japan 4-0 when they last met in late 2012.  Japan has pulled an upset on the road recently though, as they beat France in Saint-Denis just a few days before losing to Brazil.  They will be an underdog in every game they play in the tournament, so getting out of the group alone would be a huge success.  

The Samurai Blue are led into Brazil by coach Alberto Zaccheroni, having qualified for this summer's tournament by winning the 2011 AFC Asian Cup.  Zaccheroni's squad is comprised mostly of players who play their club ball in Europe, but there also some talents from the J-League.  Four players stand out though after examining the 23-man roster which was released earlier this week.  First you have Keisuke Honda, the central attacking midfielder for CSKA Moscow who Arsene Wenger named as the best player of the 2010 World Cup.  Then you have Shinji Kagawa, the Manchester United man who will pair in the attack with Honda.  Behind those two is Gamba Osaka's Yasuhito Endo, a central midfielder who is the most capped player in Japan's history.  Finally, Inter defender Yuto Nagatomo is a rock in Japan's back four, and is great in the overlap game.  If Japan wants to pull some upsets and earn a place in the semifinals, it's going to need these four players to all have fantastic tournaments.  

When I look at the schedule, I chalk up the opening match against Brazil as a loss, especially when you take into account what happened the last time the two teams played.  That leaves Japan needing to get probably at least four points in their last two games against Italy and Mexico to have a chance at advancing.  Italy has more talent on paper, but Zaccheroni should have Japan in the right positions tactically, given his Italian background.  Mexico is certainly beatable, but Japan will have to play very well to take down an extremely motivated El Tri in the final group game.  Advancing out of the group isn't outside of the realm of possibilities, but the odds are just stacked against Japan to accomplish that task this summer. 

Group Prediction: 4th

Group B

Spain

Odds To Win Group: 4/9

Odds To Win Tournament: 13/8

Matches: 6/16 vs. Uruguay @ 6:00 PM EST, 6/20 vs. Tahiti @ 3:00 PM, 6/23 vs. Nigeria @ 3:00 PM

The best team in the world is looking to cement its legacy as the greatest of all time over these next two summers, with visions of winning both the Confederations Cup and the World Cup.   While we all know which is the more important title, Spain will be looking to atone for their shocking 2-0 defeat to the United States in the 2009 Confederations Cup semifinal.  Their record in recent international competitions says it all: 2008 Euro Cup champions, 2010 World Cup Champions, 2012 Euro Cup Champions.  Spain has not only enjoyed a golden generation of players, but those players have capitalized on the opportunities presented to them on the biggest stages.  If Spain and its same core group of players can do the unthinkable and win the 2014 World Cup, this team will go down as the best international squad to have ever played the game.  

Coach Vicente Del Bosque has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal when selecting a starting eleven.  Other international managers would be begging to have half, or even a quarter of the players that Spain brings to this tournament.  The squad is so deep and talented that even Vinny Del Negro could probably coach this team to Confederations Cup glory.   Xavi and Iniesta are the twin engines that make La Furia Roja run, but they are surrounded  by an abundance of talent.  Up top, David Villa, David Silva, Cesc Fabregas, and Fernando Torres all provide serious firepower for the Spanish attack.  Complimenting Xavi and Iniesta in the midfield are players like Javi Martinez, Sergio Busquets, and Santi Cazorla.  Behind them you have experienced defenders like Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique showing the ropes to up-and-coming talents like Jordi Alba and Cesar Azpilicueta. To round out the squad, you have Spain's captain and most capped player of all time, Iker "The Saint" Casillas, one of the best goalkeepers in the world.  I could go on and on about how incredible this team is, but I will leave that to the authors of the future books that will be written about this group of players.

While this squad is the most talented team in the tournament, there are some things working against it.  First, the squad's most important players, Xavi and Iniesta, are getting up there in age and have played an insane amount of games for Barcelona and Spain since the 2008 Euro Cup.  These are two of the finest midfielders in the game, but to say their legs are not wary is probably a foolish statement.  In addition, Spain's players are so talented that the vast majority, if not all, are integral to their club teams and have logged a lot of minutes over the past season.  Other than that, Spain's luck is bound to run out at some point.  Talent will always play the most important role in determining the outcome of a tournament, but a bit of luck is also needed to claim a trophy.  With how many tournaments Spain has won in the recent years, this could be the year that Spain gets unlucky in a final and goes home as a runner-up.  The group stage will be very easy to navigate though, and Spain should easily advance to the semifinals.

Group Prediction: 1st

Uruguay
Odds To Win Group: 5/2
Odds To Win Tournament: 8/1
Matches: 6/16 vs. Spain @ 6:00 PM EST, 6/20 vs. Nigeria @ 6:00 PM, 6/23 vs. Tahiti @ 3:00 PM

La Celeste has struggled in World Cup qualifying, and their entire focus is on their upcoming qualifier against Venezuela.  A friendly victory over France earlier this week should give the squad some momentum though, and a win over Venezuela could have the Uruguayan team hitting on all cylinders going into their first Confederations Cup game against Spain.  Uruguay qualified for the Confederations Cup by winning the 2011 Copa America held in Argentina, and before that went on a magical run to the semifinals of the 2010 World Cup.

To recreate the successes of the last two tournaments, coach Oscar Tabarez is going to need Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez to carry the load once again when it comes to finding the back of the net.  The two combined to score 8 of Uruguay's 11 goals in the 2010 World Cup, with Forlan winning the Golden Ball award given to the best player of the tournament.  A year later in Argentina, they scored 6 of the team's 9 goals to bring the Copa America trophy back to Uruguay.  Forlan isn't getting any younger though, and this could be his last international tournament for La Celeste if they fail to turn it around in qualifying.  Suarez had a great season for Liverpool, but will be chomping at the bit (sorry, I couldn't help myself) to make up for his Mike Tyson impression at the end of the season.  The player who needs to step up though is Napoli striker Edinson Cavani, who has scored an abundance of goals for his club team, but has failed to replicate that success for the national team in international tournaments.  He only managed one goal in the 2010 World Cup, and could not find the back of the net in Argentina a year later.  Cavani scored 29 goals in 34 Serie A games this season, and with Forlan and Suarez getting most of the public's attention, he may be a wise play to make on "First Goalscorer" bets.

Assuming every team in this group beats Tahiti, and that Spain goes undefeated in group play, Uruguay vs. Nigeria could turn out to be an elimination game, with the winner headed to the semifinals.  A draw in that match wouldn't be the end of the world though, as Uruguay would know how many goals it would need to score against Tahiti to advance on goal differential.  What could essentially guarantee advancement for Uruguay would be a draw against Spain in the opening match.  Spain hasn't managed more than a draw in its last two tournament openers, which should bode well for Uruguay on their home continent.  While Uruguay may be capable of getting a point against Spain, I can't see Nigeria getting any points in their last match because Spain will be clicking at that point in the tournament with two matches under their belt.  The odds are in Uruguay's favor to advance, though it could be very close if they don't take care of business against Nigeria.

Group Prediction: 2nd  

Nigeria
Odds To Win Group: 11/2
Odds To Win Tournament: 20/1
Matches: 6/17 vs. Tahiti @ 3:00 PM EST, 6/20 vs. Uruguay @ 6:00 PM, 6/23 vs. Spain @ 3:00 PM

The Super Eagles qualified for the Confederations Cup by winning the African Cup of Nations in February.  Key to the triumph was a quarterfinal upset-win over Ivory Coast, which spurred the team on to lift their continent's cup for the first time since 1994.  Nigeria was not a favorite to win their continental tournament, and given their success there, they won't be intimidated as an underdog in Brazil.  The team has not lost in 2013, though most of the teams they played don't compare to their fellow Group B competitors, Spain and Uruguay.

Leading coach Stephen Keshi's Super Eagles into the tournament is Chelsea midfielder John Mikel Obi.  He'll pull the strings for Nigeria much more than he does at Chelsea, and will be the creative presence in the midfield for his country.  Two of Nigeria's most lethal attacking options, Emmanuel Emenike and and Victor Moses, will miss the tournament due to injuries.  With this duo not making the trip to Brazil, Keshi will have to rely on Ideye Brown and others to pick up the slack.  Overall, Keshi has made some very questionable managerial decisions regarding his Confederations Cup roster.  Not included in the squad are experienced forwards Obafemi Martins and Peter Odemwingie, who have combined to score 27 goals in their 94 caps for Nigeria.  Keshi has gone the same route he did with his African Cup of Nations roster, where he selected less-experienced players from Nigeria's professional league.  Though he was ruthlessly criticized by the media and Nigerian officials, Keshi was able to silence his critics by bringing home the title.  It just remains to be seen whether these decisions will provide the same magic against much stronger international competition.

If Nigeria wants to have any chance of getting out of their group, two things have to happen.  First, they must obliterate Tahiti in their opening game.  Goal differential could easily come into play as a tiebreaker, and with Uruguay playing Tahiti on the last day of group play, they will know exactly how many goals they need to score should this tie-breaker scenario come into play.  Second, Nigeria must get at least a draw against Uruguay.  If they don't take a point or more away from that game, they might as well pack their bags.

Group Predicition: 3rd


Tahiti
Odds To Win Group: 1000/1
Odds To Win Tournament: 5000/1
Matches: 6/17 vs. Nigeria @ 3:00 PM EST, 6/20 vs. Spain @ 3:00 PM, 6/23 vs. Uruguay @ 3:00 PM

I'm not going to waste your time with this one.  You only need to look at the odds above to see how big of an underdog Tahiti is in this tournament.  This is the Little Giants vs. Urbania Cowboys, except there is zero possibility of a happy ending here.  Their surprise run in the 2012 OFC Nations Cup secured their entry into this tournament, but this will be Tahiti's only trip to Brazil, as they have failed to qualify for next summer's World Cup.  They will be vastly outmatched against every team in their group, and securing a single point would be an incredible feat.  Based off their most recent result though, a 7-0 loss to Chile's U-20 team, Tahiti will do their best to limit the amount of goals they concede and look respectable in front of a global audience.  Be prepared to see some ridiculous lines on every game this team plays.

Group Prediction: 4th


Semis and Final  
Based off my group predictions, our semifinals would be Spain vs. Mexico and Brazil vs. Uruguay.  In the past, underdogs have surprisingly made the finals of this tournament quite often, as Cameroon, Japan, and the United States have all achieved the feat.  I'm going to go chalk this year though, and predict that the people get what they want from this year's Confederations Cup final: Brazil vs. Spain.  Should it happen, we can only hope that the match lives up to our expectations.  Brazil has won this tournament three times previously, and I think they make it a fourth here, with Spain getting unlucky in the final.

Hope you enjoyed the article, and I'll be providing my take on individual games and how to play them once the tournament begins.