Saturday, October 18, 2014

The Four To Score: Week Eight

Lets Forget About "Bloody Saturday"


Bloody Saturday. Black Saturday, if you're into historical stock market references. Whatever you want to call it, last week was not pretty here at Rushing The Field. Chad West, CPA and I took a severe beating. Some would say our wallets caught Ebola, given the hemorrhaging that occurred. Others might say it was as bad as SMU's football team at the beginning of the season. No matter how you slice it or dice it, last week was BAD. Now, the only positive to take from this is that the only place to go from here is up. We're like Washington, before Sarkisian arrived. If we fall any further, we'll be in Dante's Ninth Level of Hell, being forced to watch every play of every noon kickoff game in the Big Ten. No one wants to go there. I'm pretty sure Big Ten fans don't even want to go there. We do want to head back to the glorious Winner's Circle, and hopefully these picks do just that.

Oh, and if you know where Chad West, CPA, is, that information would be greatly appreciated. I can only presume he's face down in a ditch somewhere.

First Down: Oklahoma -7 vs. Kansas State, 12:00 PM EST
This line opened up around -9.5, but has since plummeted down to a touchdown, likely based on Oklahoma's performances the past two weeks. I don't think those two weeks are indicative of where this Oklahoma team is, and especially the type of team it is at home. First, the loss at TCU spoke more about where TCU is as a team, as the Horned Frogs look like a serious contender for the Big 12 Championship after back-to-back phenomenal performances against OU and Baylor. With how bad Trevor Knight's stat line was that game, if he makes a few more completions instead of interceptions, Oklahoma probably gets the W there. Secondly, anyone who knows about the Texas-OU rivalry knew Stoops was going to play that game very close to the chest, a la 2004. Oklahoma knew that if it didn't beat itself, it would win that game, and though their plan was nearly blown up by an incredible performance by Tyrone Swoopes, the Sooners were able to leave the Cotton Bowl with the Golden Hat. You can bet Oklahoma will be looking forward to return to its friendly confines after two very tough contests, and though K-State is a very well-coached ball club, there is still a big talent disparity between these two clubs. Oklahoma has been phenomenal at home under Stoops, and with an HFA around 4-5, there is no way the Sooners are only 2 -3 points better than Kansas State on a neutral field. Big Game Bob gets a statement win at home, as the Sooners win by double digits and look to get back in the playoff race.


Second Down: Washington +21 at Oregon, 8:00 PM EST
I'm going back to the well this week, after the Huskies won outright for me at Cal last weekend. Oregon certainly surprised me with their performance in the Rose Bowl last weekend, and even though King Mariota is the best player in the country, this is just too many points to pass up for a very good defensive team coached by Chris Petersen. All-Galaxy LB Shaq Thompson, who has scored four defensive TDs on the year, and the DL's in front of him will provide a very stiff test for Mariota and the Oregon offensive line. Excluding the debacle against Eastern Washington, Petersen's defensive unit hasn't given up more than twenty points in a game. I don't think Cyler Miles will be able to put up enough points for the Huskies to pull off the upset outright, but this should be a pretty close contest heading into the fourth quarter. 


Third Down: Colorado State -5.5 vs. Utah State, 7:00 PM EST

Utah State has bounced back after a bad loss against Arkansas State, but the winning streak will end in Fort Collins this week. As I stated earlier this year, I love what Nick Saban disciple Jim McElwain has been doing for the Rams. They have only lost one game ATS this year, when they had to travel up to the land of the wacky blue turf up in Idaho. Outside of that, they've done just about everything you could ask for. They won outright as a dog on the road at Boston College, something USC couldn't do. They've covered big numbers at home. They also beat their in-state rival on a neutral field to start the season. While Utah State does have a win over BYU, that win's significance is diminished by the fact that Taysom Hill's season ended in the first half. Outside of that win in Provo, the Aggies don't have a good win to their name. Give me the proven cover machine here, as Colorado State wins by at least a touchdown. 



Fourth Down: Georgia Tech -1 vs. North Carolina, 7:00 PM EST
Yes, Paul Johnson's crew failed to get the job done for me against Duke last week, but there are a lot of good things to take away from that game's box score. If it weren't for three turnovers, the Yellow Jackets probably would still be undefeated, as they out gained the Blue Devils by more than 100 yards. Additionally, even with a bye week to prepare for GT's rushing attack, Duke still gave up 6.1 yards per rush. North Carolina's sup-optimal defense doesn't have that privilege, and they have given up points to everyone this year: 58 to Notre Dame, 50 to Clemson, and 70 to East Carolina. The Tar Heels are ranked 90th in Rush Defense and 113th in Total Defense, which should bode very wall for Georgia Tech. Additionally, the Yellow Jackets have absolutely DOMINATED North Carolina in recent memory. as they have won eight of the last nine in this series. Again, Georgia Tech should run up, down, and all over North Carolina. If the defense can get a few stops against the Tar Heels offense, GT should win this one comfortably. 


Extra Point: Arkansas vs. Georgia UNDER 55.5, 4:00 PM EST

Expect to get a heavy dose of smash-mouth football in Arkansas this weekend. Bielema loves to pound the rock, and with Gurley out for Georgia, you can bank on Richt playing it close to the chest on offense. Both defensive units have also looked pretty good the past two weeks, with Arky holding Bama to fourteen points, and the Bulldogs 17th-ranked unit pitching a shutout at Mizzou. I'll take my chances on the under in what should be a close contest filled with lots of rushing attempts and punts.


Garrett's Record: 17-15-3

Chad's Record: 11-24-1

Overall Record: 28-39-4

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