The Four To Score: Week Five

Conference Races Are About to Heat Up….HALLELUJAH! 

Rich Rod and Chad on Saturdays. 

Finally, we're getting into the meat and potatoes of the college football season. Forget the dainty amouse-bouches and appetizers, we're ready for steady massive helpings of conference showdowns every week from here on out. This couldn't come soon enough, especially after last week's mediocrity here at The Four To Score. Losing Florida +14 was a loss that felt like it should have been a win during the game, but after stepping back and thinking about the game on Sunday, Will Muschamp's boys had absolutely no business hanging around for so long. Shame on me for following my heart and trusting you, Coach Boom. Long gone are the days of you chest-bumping Brian Orakpo, instead replaced by defensive mishaps leading to lots of offensive yards for opponents. Similarly, Chad took the brunt of it thanks to the least likely of characters….Greg F'n Davis. Somehow, Pitt squandered a ten point halftime lead and lost to the Hawkeyes in a game that saw the Panthers win the box score by a margin of over 100 yards. Curse the Master of Bubble Screens for putting up 17 points in the second half and blowing the cover for Chad (2-3 last week), who just can't seem to get a bounce. Hopefully things start to look up for Chad, and I'll do my best to avoid a regression to the mean (2-2-1 last week) as we break down this week's appetizing card.

First Down: Texas Tech +14 at Oklahoma State, 7:30 PM EST Thursday (Garrett)

Call me crazy for it, but I'm backing Kliff's crew this week as they head to Stillwater. The Red Raiders defense has been an absolute mess to start the season, and the offense hasn't clicked as many have expected. Yet I think this could be the week where things start heading in the positive direction for Texas Tech. They had a bye week last week, and fired their defensive coordinator, which hopefully fixes some of their defensive ills like it did for Texas in 2013. That extra week to prepare for Mike Gundy's squad will not only help the defense get its act in order, but should have also provided Davis Webb more reps to get on the same page with his WRs. As in most games between these two teams, there should be points aplenty, but I think the Red Raiders will do just enough to keep this to a single-digit game in a "rally the troops"moment to start conference play.

Oklahoma State -14 vs. Texas Tech, 7:30 PM EST Thursday (Chad)
This one will probably bite me in the ass. This is wayyy to many points, and there's little chance Tech is actually as bad as they looked against Arkansas a few weeks ago. Nonetheless, I'm laying the points with the bright orange headed step children of Oklahoma State. The loss of J.W. Walsh doesn't sting as much as some seem to think. Inside the Cowboys program, their has been effusive praise for newly minted starting QB Daxx Garman since he got on campus, and his throw first-style is tailor made for what Gundy likes to do on offense. Garman's arm will let Gundy pound the rock when he needs to, and play action teams to death. Tonight, the Pokes won't stray to far from that model. Gundy is no idiot, and he's seen that Arky tape. Scheme can't fix how small the Red Raiders are up front. Childs, Roland and Tyreek Hill will set the pace for a competent OSU rushing attack, and Garman will deliver some daggers over the top on the DB's who come up to help on the run. Given the amount of points they're giving this one will be close, but Gundy and the step-children cover.

Second Down: Washington +8 vs. Stanford, 4:15 PM EST (Garrett)

Situationally, there are a lot of reasons to like Washington in this spot. First and foremost, this game reeks of a look-ahead spot for Stanford, as the Cardinal surely have been peeking at that date with #8 Notre Dame next weekend. Additionally, Husky Stadium is a very tough place to play, as Stanford learned two years ago when Washington pulled a 17-13 upset over the Cardinals. The Huskies will also be looking to avenge last year's heartbreaker in Palo Alto, a game that included a fantastic performance from the now departed Keith Price. On the stat sheet, you have to love seeing Washington +8 in Turnover Margin, and I think QB Cyler Miles can cause some problems for the stout Stanford defense with his feet. Ultimately we should see both teams pound the ball on the ground (Washington 4th in country with 51 rush attempts per game; Stanford averaging 34), leading to another very close contest (last two games decided by a combined 7 points) up in Seattle. Take Washington and the points in this one.

It's the simple things in life...

TCU -32 @ SMU, 12:00 PM EST (Chad)
Much to the disappointment of Eric Dickerson, the Ponies may very well be the worst team in college football. SMU's best performance of the season came in a 37 point loss to North Texas, who lost the following week to Louisiana Tech by 21 points. Ouch. Next up is a seemingly improved TCU team, where Gary Patterson is attempting to reconcile his defense-first ways with the need to score points in modern college football. TCU has gone to a spread-esque system helmed by Leach and Holgorsen proteges. The early returns are promising (despite the much maligned Treyvone Boykin still being the Horned Frogs signal caller) and TCU is certainly capable of hanging some points on SMU. TCU's defense looks dominant, and Boykin stays out of his own way enough to put 45 or so on the board. TCU big. 

Third Down: Texas A&M -9.5 vs. Arkansas, 3:30 PM EST (Garrett)

Last year's game in JerryWorld closed with Arkansas being a 13.5 point underdog. Looking at this line, I can't justify Arkansas being four points better in this contest. Yes, they got a big win against Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Tech offense isn't operating at a high level yet, and this same Arkansas defense got torched by Auburn for 595 yards in Week 1. The Aggies' offense is far more explosive than Auburn's in my book, and I think Texas A&M's defense has improved markedly from last season (held South Carolina under 100 yards in Week 1 when everyone thought Spurrier would run it down Sumlin's throat). Bielema's best bet to keep this one close is to shorten the game by running the ball and the clock, but that will go out the window should A&M jump out to an early lead. Kenny Trill, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Speedy Noil will just be too much for Woo Pig in Dallas, as the best offense in the land (averaging 613 ypg) will light up the scoreboard and win this one by double digits.

Yell Leaders…..The Absolute WORST. 

Texas -12 @ Kansas, 4:00 PM EST (Chad)
Seriously, Texas is not bad enough to have earned this line. BYU and UCLA are both decent. Kansas, on the other hand, is still really, really bad. The highest single game QBR for a Kansas QB in the Weis era? Just north of 60. Hoagie the Hut's still relatively extant reputation as an offensive guru is mind boggling. The aggregate of his teams offensive statistics at talent rich Notre Dame and Florida were exactly average. At Kansas?! Bahaha. "Decided strategic advantage," my ass. Texas has looked sort of meh on offense with Swoopes under center, but we saw marked improvement from BYU through the 4th quarter of the UCLA game. The Longhorn aren't great (as we are all too aware,) but they're not beat "Kansas by less than 10" bad (although Texas was THAT bad under uncle Mack in 2012). If Texas doesn't cover this...

Please no. Please.

Fourth Down: Baylor -21 vs. Iowa State, 8:20 PM EST (Garrett)

To describe last year's game as a "blowout" would be an understatement. The Bears had their way with the Cyclones, covering the spread as 33 point favorites in a 71-7 victory. Art Briles and Bryce Petty have shown no signs of slowing up this season, as they have dominated their inferior opponents by at least 42 points in all three games. Don't be fooled by that rivalry victory, as the Cyclones fit the description of "inferior opponent. Iowa State was absolutely dominated on the stat sheet by both Kansas State (-152 in yards) and North Dakota State (-253 in yards). Furthermore, there offense has only topped put up more than 17 points on one occasion (21 against Kansas State). This spread should be much closer to -28 given last year's spread, and how Iowa State has looked this season. Lay the points with Art Briles' offensive juggernaut.

Tennessee +17 @ Georgia, 11:00 PM EST (Chad)
Butch Jones' track record speaks for itself at this point. Successful stops at Central Michigan and Cincinnati preceded his current gig in Knoxville, where he's recruited well and his efforts are starting to show. A 24 point loss to OU two weeks ago wasn't as bad as it looked, and if not for the "Florida Menace" (Erik Striker) that game would've been much closer. Don't look now SEC East foes, but Tennessee is rising. They won't beat anyone they shouldn't this year, but they are sure gonna scare some folks. Georgia still has Todd Gurley, probably the country's best player. Tennessee will struggle to stop Gurley, as anyone would. Georgia should run the ball with relative ease all day. However, Georgia won't be concerned with style points during this conference game, and Mark Richt will be perfectly satisifed with an ugly win, which they get by less than 17.

Extra Point: Wisconsin OVER 42.5 points, 12:00 PM EST (Garrett)

Melvin Gordon will run for all the yards on Saturday.

Take a look at the box score from when South Florida played North Carolina State, and you'll see that the Wolfpack rushed for 315 yards against the Bulls. Now translate that to this matchup, where the Bulls will be taking on the best rushing attack in the country, who just happened to put up 644 yards on the ground against Bowling Green last weekend, and is averaging 7.8 yards per carry on the season. The Badgers should be able to gash South Florida (93rd in the country in points allowed) left and right, leading to a ton of points for the Badgers this weekend in Madison.

Wyoming vs. Michigan State UNDER 47.5 points, 3:30 PM EST (Chad)
I really hate to do this to you guys. Two college football teams who are paying hundreds of thousands of dollars for coaches should be able to muster 50 points between them. However, Dantonio and his minion Pat Narduzzi hate points and they don't really like to let people score them. Wyoming and Craig Bohl have been the absolute ugliest team in the country this year, win or lose. It will be a sad afternoon for points in East Lansing. 

Garrett's Record: 12-6-2 (66.7%)

Chad's Record: 7-12-1 (36.8%) 

Overall Record: 19-18-3 (51.3%)