Countdown To Brazil: Off The Post

125 Days Away From The World's Greatest Sporting Event

Welcome to the first edition of Off The Post, our weekly piece covering news and issues relating to the upcoming 2014 FIFA World Cup.  Football here in the United States just ended, but that only means that the world's football is heating up.  As we get closer to June, we will be ratcheting up the coverage beyond this weekly post, providing breakdowns of teams, groups, matchups, betting odds, and even some off-the-wall topics.  Before this goes any further, I'd like to introduce you to the fantastic writers I've brought in to help cover this mammoth event.

Kyle McLaughlin: Sadly, he's a Barcelona supporter, but that is the only poor thing I can say about this guy relating to the field of soccer.  When he's not working in the legal profession, you're sure to find him watching a game taking place across the pond, looking for the next up-and-coming talent.  If you have any doubt as to this man's dedication to the game or his intelligence, you only need to know that while watching the 2010 World Cup, he also passed the state bar exam.  Outside of work and soccer, Kyle is a fan of the finer things in life: Lone Star beer and great local eateries that most people have never heard about. 

Tito Moreira:  He's well on his way toward becoming a professor in academia, but Tito has already earned his stripes when it comes to knowledge of the world's game.  Born in Los Angeles, Tito has been playing the game since he could stand upright, and even played for the Nicaraguan national team before deciding to focus on his studies.  Like Kyle, he's well versed in the European leagues, but can also provide great insights into Central and South American teams, given his roots.  Don't let the fact that he's a Manchester City supporter turn you away, because despite this substantial character flaw, he truly knows the ins and outs of the game.

Now that you've got the background on the new team members of Rushing The Field, let's get into this week's topics.

1. Does Colombia have any chance of hoisting the trophy if Falcao misses the tournament?  Do you think there is any chance that he is able to lace up the boots and give it a go? 

Garrett: I see no chance of Falcao making it back in time for the tournament, and as a result see Colombia's chances of hoisting the trophy squashed.  He was integral in Colombia getting to Brazil, as he scored nine goals in CONMEBOL qualifying.  Jackson Martinez can provide some firepower up top and hope to fill Falcao's shoes, but you need everything to go right, plus a little luck to win a World Cup.  They are still more than capable of making it out of their group, and maybe winning a knockout game, but winning it all is off the table without Falcao.  If Falcao were to prove me wrong and lace up the boots this summer, I would probably deem it to be a more impressive comeback than Adrian Peterson's.

Kyle: I think it would have been unlikely for Colombia to win the World Cup with Falcao, and it will be even harder without him.  Colombia received more attention than usual from the international media after finishing second in the always difficult CONMEBOL (South America) region.  However, they finished second without having to play Brazil in qualifying, who was excluded from the qualification process due to their World Cup inclusion as the host nation. That being said, Colombia would have likely finished third in CONMEBOL qualifying if Brazil had competed.  It is hard to imagine the third place team from South America as a favorite to win the World Cup, but it could happen.  The international media doesn't give enough attention to international sides that aren't named "Brazil" or "Argentina."  Colombia's recent win against a strong Belgium team in Belgium was an indication of their side's quality.

Currently, Falcao is being given a 50% chance of being fit for the World Cup.  However, even if he does return in time, he will not have played competitive soccer for over five months. Jose Pekerman, the Colombia manager, must then decide what he will do with or without Falcao. One option will be to insert another forward and continue to play with two forwards. Another option would be to only place one player up top and instead go with five players in the midfield.

Personally, I'm cheering for Colombia to make it out of their group, and I think they will progress with or without Falcao.  I grew up watching Colombian players do this at Wembley, dominate the midfield with style, and play beautiful soccer during a difficult time for their country.  Do yourself a favor and watch the ESPN 30 For 30 documentary The Two Escobars on Netflix.

Tito:  Falcao's quality is undeniable, hence the high priced summer move.  The belief that he gives teammates equals that of the skill he displays on the pitch.  I dare to say that he is among the best true forwards in the current game.  I say true forwards because his role is not one of creator, or having that "gambete" that may South Americans possess.  His domain is within that chalked 18-yard box, and in that box he is lethal.  Watching Falcao lead Colombia to second place in the always intense CONMEBOL gave me a nostalgic sensation.  If you were a fan of soccer in the 90's, you know watching Colombia's "Golden Era" was a joy.  With the likes of Asprilla dribbling toward goal, Perea being the stronghold of the defense, and of course the notorious "El Pibe" Valderamma spraying balls left and right, Colombia always had impressive showings...however, the belief that they would hold the trophy at the end of the World Cup was unlikely.  Considering this year's Colombia isn't as dominating as the Colombia from the 90's, the chances of them winning the World Cup would have been bleak even with Falcao leading the way.  

This year's Colombia reminded me of Uruguay four years ago.  They are a strong team revolving around a couple of stellar players.  If you remember, Uruguay made it to the semi-finals being spear-headed by Forlan and Suarez.  I figure that Colombia, at its best, would be following a similar course.  The fact that the World Cup will be held in South America does pose as an advantage for the Colombians, or any South American team for that matter, but many teams have more balanced squads.

2. Will the USMNT's recent trip to Brazil give them any sort of advantage over their group opponents?

Garrett: Believe it or not, I think this early journey down south will give the USMNT a slight advantage over their opponents.  Though many of the big names were missing, and only a few potential starters made the trip, getting the lay of the land should provide the coaches with some valuable insights to help them in June.  I'm not saying this trip will provide any dramatic advantages to Klinsmann and his squad, but becoming acquainted with the surrounding environments in each city could provide a slight advantage.  Increasing a player's comfort level with the stadiums, hotel, or practice pitches may not seem like much, but it very well could prove to be the difference when you consider that none of their group opponents have made a similar trip to Brazil.  

Kyle: I believe the recent trip to Brazil will give the U.S. a slight edge over their group opponents, but only because it may improve the logistical aspects of their World Cup trip.  None of their group opponents (Germany, Ghana, and Cristiano Ronaldo) qualified for the Confederations Cup in 2013.  The teams that participated in the Confederations Cup have an advantage over non-participating teams, as they familiarized themselves with Brazil and the logistical problems in a tournament setting, whereas the U.S. only played two friendly games against Sao Paulo FC.  

The U.S. took mostly fringe players to participate in the training sessions in Brazil, and those players will be more familiar with the training facilities, team hotels, and climate. However,  not many of the players who made the trip are projected to be starters in this summer's tournament. Therefore, any advantage gained will be limited to logistics.  I'm sure the other group teams will send representatives to Brazil in advance to try to minimize logistical problems, but it will not be as realistic as actually taking a full team to Brazil ahead of time.

The U.S chose Sao Paulo, which is located in southern Brazil, as their home base prior to the World Cup draw.  Unfortunately for the U.S., all three of their group games are located in the northern cities of Manaus, Recife, and Natal.  It has been reported that the U.S. will now be forced to travel approximately 9,000 miles for their group games, making the task of advancing out of the Group of Death even more daunting.  

Tito:  The United States just went to Brazil to play a few games and get the group together again.  The showing went well, and many American fans were able to nod their head in approval to many of the players that were introduced.  On that note, since there were many players introduced, the benefit that the USMNT will obtain from going to Brazil will be limited. Getting the opportunity for players to continue to compete for spots on the squad and coalesce with one another will always play as an advantage.  The benefits that come with taking the trip will come into mental play.  For many, this trip meant that they were able to breathe the air that they plan on breathing this coming summer.  The experience mentally brings the tournament closer, and having that familiarity with the roads and buildings will ultimately reduce the shock effect of being in Brazil.  Also, this recent trip allows for the team to gather an understanding for what to expect in terms of flight lengths and delays, and become mentally accepting of possible nuances that may occur during the actual tournament.  

However, I don't really believe that this trip provides any physical advantages, as the games would have been played with the same physical exertion had they been played elsewhere. So I think saying this trip will give the red, white, and blue any physical advantage over the other teams in the group is a bit far-fetched.  Every team will have its own particular way of preparing.

3. Outside of Ronaldo and Messi, which player means the most to his country's success this summer?

Garrett:  Call me a homer for this one, but I have to take Michael Bradley.  The man is the engine of the USMNT midfield, and the drop off in quality when he is not on the field is immediately visible.  While Jermaine Jones can be replaced as the mercenary of the two holding midfielders by a host of potential candidates, the subs that can effectively replace Bradley against top-notch opposition equal the amount of World Cups the United States has won.  No, women's World Cups do not count.  Bradley distributes the ball well and is tireless in his efforts at winning the ball back, making him a true box-to-box player.  He's tenacious, yet also possesses a keen eye for providing passes to his attackers that put them in great positions.  It will be absolutely critical for Bradley to get tons of minutes in the coming months with his new club Toronto FC, so that he can be in top form and shape when June rolls around.  

Andrea Pirlo of Italy was a very close second, especially when you consider how good he is at pulling the strings for the Azzurri, but the lack of any quality replacement for Bradley is the difference in my mind.

Kyle: Why always Mario?  Mario Balotelli is the mercurial Italian forward who currently plays for AC Milan. He is one of the most talented players in soccer today possessing strength, speed, and a powerful shot. Balotelli was instrumental in Italy's run to the Euro 2012 finals and played well in the 2013 Confederations Cup before he was injured.

Italy is known for playing lock-down defense. The key for Italy will be scoring goals, and that is Super Mario's strength. The Azzurri will be even more reliant on Balotelli because Giuseppe Rossi, who plays as the second forward for Italy, suffered a knee injury and is expected to be out for two more months. Rossi's lack of match fitness prior to the World Cup may result in Italy playing with only one forward, which will place the goal scoring burden squarely on Balotelli's shoulders.

Balotelli's talent is undeniable, but he has trouble staying focused on soccer. Super Mario has a history of off-the-field problems. He threw darts at Manchester City youth team players because he was bored. He started a fire in his bathroom with a firecracker. Oh, and he illegally parked his Maserati so often that he amassed fines of over 10,000 pounds. Here is a link to an article with more of Mario's high jinks. YOLO, Mario.

If Balotelli can score goals and Italy play their usual tough defense, this team will be a threat in the World Cup.

Tito: This 27 year old comes in weighing 179 pounds, and standing a solid 5'11''.  In this season alone, he currently has 23 goals and 7 assists in only 19 games; he tops the charts in the EPL.  I'm sure by now you've guessed it...his reputation precedes him...he intentionally uses his hands to block goals, and when he is angry he is known to take a few bites out of crime...The always controversial scoring machine...The flyin' Uruguayan LUIIIIISSSS SUUUUUARRREZZZ!  

Luis Suarez has 79 caps with the Men's National Side, and in those 79 games he has scored 39 goals (.69 goals/game).  He is currently the highest scoring Uruguayan of all time, beating the infamous Diego Forlan who has 36 goals in 107 games.  Based on goals alone one can see the influence this man has on his team.  

I want to take you back to the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.  Luis Suarez had just come off an outstanding season with 49 goals in 48 games at Ajax.  He takes the field with "la Celeste" and scores the goal against Mexico to take Uruguay to the top of the group.  There were four goals and Suarez gets one of those.  That leaves Uruguay facing South Korea in the Round of 16.  Uruguay defeats the Koreans 2-1, with Suarez scoring both goals in the 8th and 80th minute.  La Celeste then takes on Ghana and this is where Suarez infamy really explodes.  The game is tied 1-1, an din the 120th minute (that's right, after a full 90 and at the end of second period of extra time), a Ghanaian takes a shot that is surely going in and Luis Suarez comes to Uruguay's rescue.  Granted, he now thinks he is the "new Hand of God."  This man literally jumps and swats the ball out of the goal and sacrifices himself to deny the goal.  He immediately gets sent off, bringing tears to his eyes.  The pressure builds around the stadium as the Ghanaian steps up to take the penalty kick, and low and behold, he misses to give life to the Uruguayans.  Suarez is seen as a savior in his home country, and the controversy swirls around World Cup as Uruguay ends up defeating Ghana in penalty kicks to advance to the semi-finals.  Uruguay ends up losing to the Dutch in the semis, but the thought of how the game would have turned out had Suarez played still sits in the back of peoples' minds.  

The 2013 Confederations Cup went relatively well for Uruguay as well.  The Sky Blues, just like the 2010 World Cup, took 4th place behind Brazil, Spain, and Italy (which still isn't too bad considering the caliber of those teams).  The role that Suarez had on his team was not as potent as in the past, but he was effective none the less, scoring 3 goals out of Uruguay's 15.  His efforts are typically tallied by goals, but his movement off the ball and the space he creates are top shelf.  This allows for Edison Cavani to find ample space, and net many balls.  

As always, qualifying for the 2014 World Cup was incredibly difficult in the CONMEBOL. Uruguay only qualified by beating an incredibly sub-par Jordan in a playoff.  However, if it wasn't for Luis Suarez, Uruguay would not have made the World Cup.  In the 16 games that each country had to play, Uruguay scored 25 times, and of those 25, Suarez slotted 11. That puts Suarez at 44% of the goals scored for Uruguay and at .69 goals per game.  Also, something worth noting is that Suarez scores goals in very clutch situations.  In many instances he'll be the only player scoring, and if there are multiple scorers, more often than not he is the first to score which acts as a catalyst for better play and team morale on the pitch.  During the qualifiers, Suarez's 11 goals put him on the top of the scoring list for CONMEBOL (Messi came in second with 10 goals while Higuain and Falcao each notched 9).  These are impressive numbers for Suarez, and if his current from transfers to the World Cup, I do see Uruguay being a force in Brazil.  Being placed with Italy, England, and Costa Rica in Group D will make advancing difficult, but the ability for Suarez to score goals and tear apart defenses will put them in contention to make it to the knockout rounds.  I see Suarez really showcasing his level of play at this World Cup...all he needs to do is make sure he has his "Hannibal Lecter" mask on to prevent his biting antics. 

4. Given the current odds of winning the World Cup listed by the bookmakers, which team currently provides the best value?

Garrett:  The days of Zidane (sadly) are long gone, but France provides incredible value at 20-1 to lift the trophy.  France is the favorite to win their group, and should they be able to accomplish that task, they will be rewarded with a fairly easy Round Of 16 matchup against Nigeria or Bosnia-Herzegovina.  After that, they'd likely face familiar European foe Germany, a difficult opponent to overcome, but one they will not be intimidated by.  They've got talent everywhere, and the only reason they were forced into the UEFA playoff was because they were grouped with Spain.

Speaking of talent, if you haven't done so already, check out Paul Pogba of Juventus. (If you've never seen a soccer highlight video, it's a well known fact that 93% of them will contain electronic house music. Deal with it.)  At only twenty years old, he is one of the brightest and youngest stars in the game.  He is the definition of a complete midfielder: he is a physical, imposing presence; he supplies deft, creative passes; and he can fire absolute lasers into the top corner of the net from distance.  If Benzema and Ribery can stay out of prison for their prostitute problems, this trio of French stars could easily find themselves still in the tournament in early July.

For those of you who think that little scandal in France will damper their chances this coming summer, don't forget what happened the last time a soccer power was rocked by bad press before a World Cup.  In 2006, Italy won the Wold Cup despite a humongous match-fixing scandal being uncovered in their domestic league just before the tournament.  Additionally, France has a unique trend going over the last four World Cups....after winning it all in 1998, they crashed out of the tournament in the group stage in 2002.  They then made it to the final in 2006, where they lost to Italy.  Finally, they notoriously went up in flames in South Arica in 2010, making complete fools out of themselves while exiting in the group stage.  Given that trend, and how things went in South Africa, that can mean only one thing for France in Brazil this summer...

Kyle: I like Spain at 7-1. After all, they are the reigning World Cup champions and won the past two Euro Cups in 2008 and 2012. Currently, they are the fourth favorite to win the World Cup behind Brazil, Argentina, and Germany.

Why Spain Will Win

I believe Spain's participation at last year's Confederations Cup in Brazil will help the team understand the climate, logistics, and atmosphere of playing in the upcoming World Cup. La Furia Roja spent over two weeks in Brazil playing difficult games at various World Cup venues and traveling across the country. Argentina and Germany did not qualify for the Confederations Cup and were unable to experience Brazil in a tournament setting.

Spain's possession based game will be well-suited to the hot and humid climate of Brazil. There is a prevailing thought that European teams will suffer in Brazil because they are not accustomed to the heat and humidity. I believe Spain's style of play will help them in Brazil. Spain's magicians will hold on to the ball and force the opposing team to chase shadows. As the game progresses, the opposing team will suffer from running more than the Spanish team which will open up holes for Spain to exploit.

Why Spain Will Not Win

Some people claim tiki-taka, the possession based soccer played by Spain and Barcelona, is losing effectiveness. As evidence, people point to Spain's second place finish in the 2013 Confederations Cup and Barcelona's heavy defeat in the Champions League semifinals to Bayern Munich. Wrong link? Ok, try this one. Both losses were deep into difficult tournaments to very talented teams. Brazil and Bayern Munich demonstrated that tiki-taka can be defeated, but I don't believe those losses were the death knell for possession based soccer.

Another argument against Spain winning is that a European team has never won a World Cup in the Americas. I don't believe this is a very strong argument. The last World Cup in the Americas was the U.S. in 1994. Brazil won that World Cup, but three of the top four teams were European.

Mexico '86 was the next most recent World Cup in the Americas. An Argentina squad led by Diego Armando Maradona won the tournament. Again, three of the four teams in the semifinals were European. In Argentina '78, Argentina won and two European teams finished in the top four. In Mexico '70, Brazil won and two European teams finished in the top four.

Although the European teams did not win a World Cup in the Americas, they did manage to advance far in the tournaments. It should be noted that there were more European teams in the World Cup tournaments than North and South American teams.

Another reason to discount the historical argument that European teams cannot win in the Americas is soccer has become more of a global game. Players from all over the world play in the elite European leagues. The international teams of Africa and Asia are much stronger than they were 20 years ago. South American players are moving to Europe in greater numbers and are not as accustomed to playing in South America as earlier generations. For example, Lionel Messi, Dani Alves, Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain, and Marcelo moved to Europe at an early age.

Spain is in a difficult group and may end up playing Brazil in the second round if they do not win their group. However, I believe Spain will finish first and will most likely play Mexico in the Round of 16. At 7-1, I like the reigning champs.

Tito: Looking at the odds, Brazil being 3:1 and Argentina being 9:2 makes it difficult to say that they provide the best value.  The bracket shows that Brazil will face their first real challenge in the quarter-finals against either Spain or Netherlands (7:1 and 25:1, respectively) depending on who comes out second in that group.  If Brazil comes out of that clash, they will face Germany (11:2) who has a relatively easy setup until the semis.  On the other side of the bracket, Argentina has a clear shot to the quarters where it will be either Spain or Netherlands depending on their placement out of the group.  I think Italy and Colombia are a bit too much of a long shot at 22:1.  Thus, I will have to say that the best value lies with Germany.  The chances of them making it to the final are very high, and their payout is 11:6 when juxtaposes to Brazil.  While Spain to Argentina would be 14:9 and Netherlands to Argentina would be 50:9...I think, although my heart is with a South American team, the "best" value would have to be on Germany given the setup of the bracket.

5. What does Juan Mata's transfer do for both Manchester United, and his chances of making Vicente Del Bosque's final 23-man roster? 

Garrett:  This transfer was truly a win for every party involved.  Mata is finally going to get the minutes he was lacking at Chelsea, Manchester United got a great playmaker who can create the attacking chances they sorely needed, and Spain will have another fully fit and in-form midfielder to add to their ranks.  Most importantly, the move eases the pain that David Moyes has caused me so far this season.  I never thought I'd see the day where I would know what it felt like to be a Gooners fan the past few years, but that day came pretty early this year.  Let me tell you, it is the worst.   All jokes aside about Arsenal's inability to hold something silver in their hands, it was unlikely that Mata would ever be left out of Del Bosque's final roster, but you never know what might have happened if he would have been left to rot on Mourinho's bench.  The move very well could help land the new Mancunian man a starting spot in Spain's loaded midfield at the World Cup.

Kyle: I like Juan Mata. I think he is a very skilled player that did not fit into Jose Mourinho's plans at Chelsea. "Johnny Kills" has excellent skills and is able to see and execute defense splitting passes. I think his creativity will help United maintain possession and put pressure on opposing defenses. I expect United to make a run and challenge for a top four place in the Premier League.

Mata was named Chelsea Player of the Year for the past two seasons, yet it was still difficult for him to find playing time for Spain. Mata was on the Spanish team at the 2013 Confederations Cup but did not see significant playing time due to competition for midfield spots. Spain has a glut of talented midfield players such as Xavi, Iniesta, Fabergas, Busquets, David Silva, Thiago, Cazorla, and Xabi Alonso.

I think Juan Mata will see significant playing time at Manchester United and will make, but not start, for the Spanish team. Del Bosque, the Spanish coach, has alternated between the "double pivot" five man midfield where there are two defensive midfielders (see the 2010 World Cup and 2012 Euro Cup with Busquets and Xabi Alonso) and the "single pivot" with one defensive midfielder (see the 2013 Confederations Cup with Busquets). The change in formation may have been due to Xabi Alonso's injury prior to the 2013 Confederations Cup. I believe Del Bosque will decide on two defensive midfielders, and it will be very hard for Juan Mata to crack the starting lineup since he will be competing to play one of the three remaining "attacking" midfielder spots. Andres Iniesta is a lock to start and I would be surprised if Xavi doesn't start. That would leave some very talented players competing for one midfield position.

Tito: "El Gran" Juan...The 25 year old is among the best creative midfielders in the world. His talent is undeniable and he is clearly being integrated into the Spanish national team. By the time he had his 2010 World Cup call up to La Furia Roja, he had 10 caps. He was included in the 2010 World Cup, 2012 Euro Cup, and 2013 Confederations Cup. I'm saying that all signs lead to a most definite call up for the 2014 World Cup considering that since the 2010 World Cup, he has tripled his caps to 30.

The midfield of Spain is incredibly talented, but with the likes of Xavi Hernandez (34 years old) reaching the twilight of his career, and Andres Iniesta at 29 years old, the midfield will need younger players to begin to infiltrate the ranks. People like Cesc Fabregas, Santi Cazorla, David Silva, and Juan Mata will need to try to continue this Golden Era of Spanish football. Of those four players just mentioned, only David Silva (Manchester City) is getting regular playing time. Cesc is getting varied time at Barcelona, and Cazorla is not playing regularly at Arsenal. Don't get me wrong, both Cesc and Cazorla are playing, just not the time needed to be in tip-top shape. Despite Juan Mata's skill, he was finding it difficult to get any playing regular playing time under Mourinho's thumb at Chelsea. The transfer to United will give Mata much more regular playing time, as Moyes is in much need of that creative center mid. He will be able to work with Van Persie and Rooney, which will take Mata's game to a higher level.  I predict Mata will not only make the 23-man squad, but I also see Mata making an impact on the pitch in Brazil come this summer.