The Four To Score: Week 9

The Band Journey Once Said: "Don't Stop Winning" 

Another week, another set of picks from The Four To Score going 3-2.  It seems darn near automatic now, given that we've gone 12-6-2 in the last four weeks.  But, you must never settle for complacency, and this week provides us yet another opportunity at getting an elusive undefeated weekend ATS.  Without further hesitation, here are this week's picks.   

First Down: Texas +2.5 vs. TCU; 7:30 PM EST

I'm not going to lie, I was very puzzled when this line opened TCU -3.  The Horned Frogs have been very unimpressive this season, and looked downright awful last week at Oklahoma State.  Texas is coming off its most impressive win of the season against Oklahoma, and had an extra week off to prepare for Gary Patterson's boys.  The Longhorns, which were once dead in the water, now have something to play for, and are a very different team than the one that lost to BYU and Ole Miss.  It should be a close one, but expect Mack Brown and Case McCoy to get the revenge win in Fort Worth. 

Second Down: UCLA +23.5 vs. Oregon; 7:00 PM EST

Another Oregon game, another decision based solely on principle.  This line opened up around Oregon -17, and has been bought up all the way to -23.5.  At that -17 number, Oregon probably has to be the play if there is one to be made there, but a 6.5 point difference makes this a completely different story.  UCLA will have some extra motivation on their side this weekend after struggling at Stanford last week, and their defense will be the best the Ducks have seen all season.  Oregon may be the best team in the country, but remember last week's play against them with Washington State to quell your worries. The Ducks should get the win, but the Bruins will get the cover thanks to the inflated margin.  

Third Down: Oregon State +5 vs. Stanford; 10:30 PM EST

The Beavers have gotten hot, and Sean Mannion is the best quarterback you know nothing about.  Since losing their season opener to Eastern Washington,  Oregon State has reeled off six straight wins, with four of them coming by double digits.  Individually, Mannion has been unreal, throwing for just under 3,000 yards and 29 TDs.  On the flip side, Stanford is in the tail end of its most difficult stretch of the season, having played three very tough opponents in Washington, Utah, and UCLA in the past three weeks.  Last year's game went down to the wire in Palo Alto, with the Cardinal edging out the Beavers after trailing by nine late in the third quarter.  You can expect this game to be very close once again, so take the points with the home team in Corvallis.   

Fourth Down: Oklahoma -6.5 vs. Texas Tech; 3:30 PM EST

Texas Tech comes into this game as one of the last unbeaten teams in college football, after running off seven consecutive wins to start the season.  However, the Red Raiders haven't played a solid team yet this season, and the last thing you went to take into Norman is team that isn't battle-tested.  Historically the home team has dominated this series, as the only road team to get a win since 2004 was Tech in 2011.  When the games have been played in Norman, the Sooners have had their way, usually winning by double digits.  Oklahoma is the more proven commodity, and they are under the key number, making this a no-brainer.  

Extra Point: UCLA OVER 24.5 PTS

The trend is all too common when it comes to Oregon.  They often get out to a big lead, the starters come out, and their opponent scores some garbage time points.  In their last two games, the Ducks have given up 24 or more, and even gave up 38 to Wazzu last weekent.  Although UCLA only scored 10 points last weekend, their offense has shown the capability to put up points this year (averaging 39.8 ppg), and I expect them to get some on the board before Oregon's second and third-stringers come in toward the end of the game.  

The Four To Score: 14-14-2

Extra Points: 3-3-1

Overall: 17-17-3

The Four To Score: Week 8

"Just Win, Baby!"

Let begin this week's column by saying I will gladly take a loss if it means my Horns smoked the Sooners in the Cotton Bowl.  That age-old adage of "never bet against your team" proved true last week, as Mack Brown and the boys came out and kicked in Oklahoma's teeth relentlessly for sixty minutes.  They proved me and the rest of the country wrong, and it was oh so glorious.  Despite that loss though, we had our third consecutive winning week here at The Four To Score, going 3-2 over the weekend, with the only other loss occurring in Washington.  Over the past three weeks, we've definitely been on fire like Daje Johnson's feet, going 9-4-2 in all of our plays, for a 60% winning clip.  The train is running full speed now, and we have no intention of it stopping.  

First Down: Clemson +3 vs. Florida State; 8 PM EST

Though Clemson has underwhelmed in previous weeks, lets not forget about that big win in Week 1 against Georgia.  This game against Florida State is very similar to that one, as the Tigers enter as primetime home underdogs once again.  Famous Jameis Winston has been fantastic for the seminoles this season, but this will be Florida State's first real test of the season.  Death Valley will be rocking just like it did when Georgia came town, and I'm expecting Jameis to get a bit rattled during his first experience in this kind of atmosphere.  Give me the more experienced Tajh Boyd and the points, as the home team in this game has won the last six outright. 

Second Down:  Washington State +40 vs. Oregon; 10 PM EST

This play is one based solely on principle.  Every line that has come out on the Ducks has been hammered by the public, and because the Ducks have kept covering, the books have pushed the lines higher and higher.  There is no way the Cougars should be getting 40 points here, as they are a fairly respectable 4-3 team, despite a big loss to Oregon State last week.  Remember they beat USC at the Coliseum, and gave Auburn all the could handle down in Alabama.  In their last three meetings, the Cougars haven't lost to the Ducks by more than 25 points.  Oregon should get an easy win, but I expect Washington State to keep it within the forty point margin, as teams coming off a big loss generally play much better the following week.

Third Down: Stanford -4.5 vs. UCLA; 3:30 PM EST

I love what Jim Mora and Brett Hundley have done down in UCLA this season.  However, this is not the spot to make a play on them.  Stanford is coming off an upset loss to Utah last week, meaning they are playing for their season this week against the Bruins.  If they lose to UCLA, their chance at a PAC-12 North division title is gone, as there is no way in hell that Oregon will lose two games this season.  Stanford has won the last five in this series, including two last season in back-to-back weeks.  David Shaw will have his team motivated, as Stanford comes out fired up to get the win and keep their season alive. 

Fourth Down: Notre Dame -2.5 vs. USC; 7:30 PM EST

The Trojans got us the cover at home against Arizona last week, but they are facing a much tougher test when they head to South Bend this weekend.  Though USC has had extra time to prepare for this week's contest, they are 2-7 in their last nine games ATS, and are 0-9 in their last nine road games ATS.  Notre Dame is coming off a bye week after beating a solid Arizona State team on a neutral field. Remember, that Sun Devil team is the one that beat the snot out of USC, and ended Lane Kiffin's career.  With how big Notre Dame is up front on defense, the Trojans' running game should struggle, and will it all be on quarterback Cody Kessler's shoulders.  USC may be better than they were when Kiffin is in charge, but they won't be good enough to get the win in South Bend.  The Irish win a close one at home, ending the streak of road teams dominating this series over the past four years. 

Extra Point: LSU vs. Ole Miss OVER 60 

In the last three contests between these two schools, LSU has put over 40 points on the board in each game.  This year's unit might be the better than all of the previous three, as the Tigers have put points up on everyone except the staunch Florida defense.  Ole Miss has given up 30 points three times this season, including 41 to Johnny Football last weekend.  The fact is that the Rebels can't stop an above average offense, let alone one as good as Texas A&M's.  LSU will probably get the cover, but the better play here is the OVER, as the Tigers might get into the 50's here, with Ole Miss putting some points on the board as well. 

The Four To Score: 11-13-2

Extra Points: 3-2-1

Overall: 14-16-3

"Houston...We have a problem."

Time To Call VY 

The Houston Texans have officially imploded.  After getting drubbed in San Fran last weekend, this was supposed to be the weekend that Schaub and the rest of the H-Town boys got back on track.  I mean, come on, St. Louis struggled against Jacksonville last week, and has looked horrible this season. Nearly everyone across the country had the Rams at the bottom of their power rankings heading into this week.  Then the teams took the field, and everything went to hell and a hand-basket in the blink of an eye.  Jeff Fisher's team came out and beat the Texans in every aspect of the game, revealing that Houston is spiraling completely out of control.  When you look at the tape and the stat lines, one thing is crystal clear: you can't blame the Texans' defense.  They gave up only 216 yards of offense today, yet the Rams put up 38 points.  Yes, it's evident that the blame is shouldered by the men on the other side of the ball for Houston, who put their defensive comrades in bad positions every week.  But the Texans have a great offensive line, and fantastic weapons at WR, TE, and RB.  Thus, in my opinion the blame falls solely on one position: quarterback.

If you've been keeping track at home, this was the fifth consecutive week that the Texans threw a pick-six.  Except this time it wasn't Schaub, but TJ Yates who did the deed.  Combined, the two have managed to throw more interceptions than touchdowns this season, and it's easy to see that the fan base has lost all faith in the two.  Hell, you could even hear cheers from the Houston fans when Schaub left the game with an injury today.  With the losses mounting and increasing unrest from Texans fans, there is one move that Houston's front office should make immediately, for a variety of reasons...signing Vince Young.  

Now although I am a University of Texas alum, I ask you to hear me out on this instead of simply disregarding my opinion as the dumb idea of a "homer."  First, the quarterback play can't get any worse than it already is in Houston, so there is nothing to lose by signing Vince.  Despite the falling out with Fisher, and the struggles in Philly, Young has won 60% of his starts in the NFL, and he looked like the VY of old earlier this preseason with the Packers.  Hell, the Packers GM even admitted that Vince would probably be the backup if they had signed him earlier in the offseason.  Secondly, this move would help the Houston office save face with its fan base, not destroy it.  Some have said that signing VY off the street would make it seem like everything is out of control in Houston.  News flash, Texans front office: IT IS OUT OF CONTROL.  By signing Young, you're bringing some excitement to town and satisfying the fan base, as the hometown boy will finally be suiting up for the team he's always wanted to play for.  Not to mention that plenty of Texans fans were clamoring for the team to draft him with the first overall pick after he took down USC in the Rose Bowl.  Vince would be fully invested in the Texans, and those of you who have followed his career have seen what can happen when the man is in his zone.  All you have to do is think back to his last two seasons at Texas, and his early years in Tennessee.  If he's given the opportunity to lead that offense, and they get a few wins under their belt, the sky could be the limit for the Texans despite their poor start.  What might be seen as some to be a band-aid fix could turn into a long term solution, as the Texans are loaded everywhere else.  If Vince were to succeed as the Texans quarterback this season, it COULD go down as the greatest move the franchise has ever made, from both on-and-off-the-field standpoints.

For those who might have lingering hesitations after the Tennessee fiasco and the Philly backup appearances, all you have to see is this tweet from earlier today:

@VinceYoung: Let them know VY is in shape and ready to go! I always loved my birth place and everyone who lives in it IM READY

The man wants this.  He wants the pressure of being under center in his hometown, he wants to be the one to take Houston to the top.  As a fan, how can you not want that after seeing the timid play of Schaub and Yates over the past few weeks, knowing full well that Vince can't do any worse than they have?  The ball is the Texans' court now; all they have to do is pick up the phone. 

The Four To Score: Week 7

Like Fletcher's Corny Dogs, Victory Tastes Good

The dynamite went boom in Week 6, as we went 4-1 against the number, and got our second consecutive winning week.  If not for those damn Sooners giving up a garbage time TD, we would have had a perfect week, but once again Bob Stoops put the screws to a Longhorn fan.  Thanks, Bobby, you're still a prick.  Despite our shortcomings early on in the season, we are now 6-2-2 over the last two weeks, a very respectable number for anyone in the business of CFB prognostication.  This week brings about my favorite game of every season, the Red River Shootout in Dallas.  Although this game is no longer the rivalry it once was when I was an undergrad (Thanks again, Mack), the weekend is still one of the best of the year, filled with incredible amounts of debauchery, fried foods, and wax cups full of beer.  Before I start rambling about all the glorious things you can find at the State Fair, here are this week's picks. 

First Down: Oklahoma -13.5 vs. Texas

What?!? A Longhorn fan betting against the Horns in the biggest game of the season?!? Yup, you're damn right.  This isn't about emotions, this is strictly business.  Bob Stoops always has his team ready for this game, and his boy's always take the field as if it's the last they will ever play.  The same can't be said for Mack Brown, who has a habit of clapping his way blowouts where his team is out of the game by halftime.  Texas has shown the world they can't compete with the big boys this season, and this Oklahoma defense should wreak havoc on Case McCoy.  Mack has only beaten Bobby once without Vince Young or Colt McCoy under center, and though this game may not be as bad as the past two, Oklahoma should still win handily.  Consider this the first nail in Mack's coffin. 

Second Down: Washington +14 vs. Oregon

This game is much more than just the battle of the two best helmets in the country.  Puddles better look out, as the Huskies are Oregon's first legitimate opponent of the season.  If you watched the game in Palo Alto last week, you saw that Washington was the better team on the night, and should've come away with the victory.  Stanford was lucky to escape with a victory, mostly because of how poorly the Huskies performed in the kick return game.  Keith Price is flat out balling right now, as he has returned to the form of his first two seasons on campus.  The Ducks have to travel to Washington this week, and though I have them as the top team in the country right now, there is no way they should be laying this many points against this good of a team.  Keep in mind, the Huskies only lost by 21 at Oregon last year, and they are a much better team this season.  Husky Stadium should be rocking, and Washington should keep it within the number, potentially even getting the outright win.  

Third Down: USC -6.5 vs. Arizona (Thursday night game)

Both teams are coming off a bye heading into this week's game, but these two teams are headed in opposite directions.  USC made the right move by firing Lane Kiffin, and though Ed Orgeron isn't the greatest interim head coach, the team should be headed in a positive direction now that they've gotten rid of that toxic Kiffin poison.  Arizona, on the other hand, still has BJ Denker under center, and anyone who watched him against Washington knows the Wildcats aren't going far with him under center.  He is extremely limited in the passing game, and should be the perfect matchup for a USC defense looking to get back on track after the debacle in Tempe.  It may not be pretty, but the Trojans should win by double digits in this revenge scenario.  

Fourth Down: LSU -6.5 vs. Florida

Don't get me wrong, I love Will Muschamp's defense.  However, I hate an inexperienced quarterback traveling to Death Valley.  Though Tyler Murphy had a pretty solid game against Arkansas at The Swamp last week, there is a big difference between the friendly confines of home, and the hostile atmosphere of Tiger Stadium.  LSU's defense is nowhere near as good as last year's unit, but they should have some success at home against Murphy, who is starting only his second game.  Mettenberger's numbers may not be as gaudy as they have been the last few weeks due to the stingy Florida defense, but he should produce just enough to get LSU backers the cover.  

Extra Point: Baylor 1H -9

Last week's extra point of Baylor OVER 49 might have been the easiest play in the history of the universe, as the Bears went over the total in the second quarter.  Art Briles' team is for real, and not only have they demolished every team they've gone up against, they've also hammered every line Vegas has set, as they have covered their last ten and gone over the total in 23 of their last 29!  Kansas State will probably be missing their top two receivers this week, and their defense gave up over thirty points to two unimpressive offenses in Oklahoma State and Texas.  Baylor should cover the 1H line easily again, and taking the full game at -17.5 might also be a strong play given their recent track record of blowing teams out.  Also, their uniform and helmet for last week's game (pictured above) was one of the filthiest I've ever seen in college football.  Other than beer drinking, it seems they are doing everything right in Waco these days.     

The Four To Score: 9-12-2

Extra Points: 2-2-1

Overall: 11-14-3

The Four To Score: Week 6

Breaking: Congress Still Sucks, College Football Does Not

Unlike our fellow citizens on Capitol Hill, we made some progress last Saturday, going 2-1-2 in our five picks of the week.  As our record indicates, we were just a few plays away from it being a 4-1 week, but we'll take nay kind of winning week after the dry spells we had previously encountered.  As always though, a winning week should not increase the size of your ego, but only the amount of scotch in your glass.  That being said, I've poured a mighty tall one to get me through this piece, so cheers to you and enjoy this week's picks.  

First Down: LSU -9.5 vs. Mississippi State

If you remember from our Week 1 post, Mississippi State is absolutely terrible against ranked opposition.  I'm talking the type of terribleness that can only be compared T.W. Samuel's whisky without any kind of mixer.  LSU nearly pulled the upset in Athens next week, and though they came up short, they proved themselves to be one of the top teams in the country.  The Tigers may not put up as many points as they did last week due to an improved Bulldogs defense, but I'm pretty confident that Mississippi State will struggle mightily in trying to keep up with Mettenberger.  It may not be pretty, but LSU should win comfortably by two touchdowns.

Second Down: Washington +8 vs. Stanford

As evidenced by my previous posts, I love the Washington Huskies this year.  They have completely put last year's debacle behind them en route to starting off the year undefeated.  Stanford once agains has one helluva ball club in Palo Alto this year, but Sarkisian and his boys had some success against the Cardinal up in Seattle last year, pulling the upset in the middle of the season.  All signs point to this being a very tight game, even though Stanford is out for revenge.  Give me the Huskies and the points, as Sarkisian has a good history of having his team ready to play against big-name opponents.

Third Down: Miami -5.5 vs. Georgia Tech

This is purely a situational play here, as I'm not completely sold on how good the Hurricanes are this year.  Al Golden's boys were able to beat Florida in a close one earlier this year, but it's hard to gauge the quality of this team because of how bad the rest of their opponents have been. But what I do know is that Miami has absolutely dominated Georgia Tech in recent history, winning the last four games in the series, three of which were by double digits.  It's clear that Golden's team has figured out how to stop the triple option that Georgia Tech relies so heavily upon.  The Hurricanes should be able to win by at least a touchdown at home against this familiar opponent. 

Fourth Down: Oklahoma -9 vs. TCU

Look at the schedule, and this has the makings of a trap game for OU as it's sandwiched between Notre Dame and Texas.  After all, TCU played LSU tough in the season opener, and they no longer have a quarterback controversy on their hands.  Yet the fact is that TCU hasn't beaten a quality opponent yet, while Oklahoma went up to South Bend last week and took care of business against the Golden Domers.  Old Bobby up in Norman has got his swagger back, and their defense is reminding me of those rabid Sooner units from the early 2000s when Rocky Calmus and Roy Williams were causing Chris Simms to soil himself every other snap.  Sooners get an easy win in Norman this weekend before the Red River Blowout.  

Extra Point:  Baylor OVER 49 Team Points

Last year's game was a boat race that saw the Bears put up 63 points in Morgantown.  Not much has changed this year, as Baylor has put up 69 points or more in every game it has played.  West Virginia's defense is better than last year's, but that's not saying much considering West Virginia couldn't stop anyone in the 2012 campaign.  Considering that they gave up 37 to Maryland though, Baylor should roll easily.  Sic Em Bears, as Art Briles will run it up trying to reach that magical number of 69 once again. 

The Four To Score: 6-11-2

Extra Points: 1-2-1

Overall: 7-13-3