USMNT Qualifiers: Three Points Gets Us To Brazil

Two Tough Games, Two Very Different Histories

The wheels of club soccer have begun to spin, and transfer deadline day has come and gone, but soccer fans this weekend won't have their eyes on the Barclays Premier League, La Liga, or Serie A.  Instead, fans around the world will be tuned into the penultimate round of World Cup Qualifiers, cheering on their countries as teams look to seal the deal and punch their tickets to Brazil.  While there will certainly be many great games across the globe worth analyzing and watching, the two most important for obvious patriotic reasons are the ones our USMNT will be playing.  Both contests should be tough and hard-fought matches, but other than that, you will be hard pressed to find any similarities between the upcoming US qualifiers against Costa Rica and Mexico.  Before we delve into the differences between the matchups, lets first take a glance at the roster (with projected starters italicized) Jurgen Klinsmann has called up.  

Goalkeepers: Tim Howard (Y), Brad Guzan, Nick Rimando

Defenders: DaMarcus Beasley, Matt Besler, John Brooks, Geoff Cameron (Y), Edgar Castillo, Michael Parkhurst, Omar Gonzalez, Michael Orozco

Midfielders: Kyle Beckerman, Alejandro Bedoya, Michael Bradley (Y), Mix Diskerud, Fabian Johnson (Y), Jermaine Jones (Y), Graham Zusi, 

Forwards: Landon Donovan, Jozy Altidore, Clint Dempsey (Y), Aron Johannsson, Eddie Johnson (Y)

Without a doubt, this is one of the most talented and deepest lineups our country has ever fielded.  Combine the pace at which Jozy Altidore has been scoring goals with a revived Landon Donovan reuniting with Clint Demspey, and our players up front should cause havoc for any team's back line.  That being said, there are some things to worry about with this roster, and some tricky issues for Klinsmann to navigate.  First, seven players are carrying yellow cards into these matches, who I have pointed out above by placing a (Y) next to their name.  As you can see, there are a lot of big names facing a one-game suspension should they receive another card, so don't be surprised if you see some of those players start one of these two games on the bench.  Additionally, Klinsmann might have to leave Altidore out of the lineup due to a sore hamstring, and he will have to replace Brad Evans (sent home due to injury), who had become quite reliable as the starter at right back over the last few games.  Expect to see utility man Geoff Cameron fill the void there, and while he is a talented and imposing presence on the field, don't be surprised if you see some errors in the back due to the absence of Evans, especially during the team's first game in hostile territory...

United States @ Costa Rica

Friday, September 6th; 10:00 P.M. EST

Estadio Nacional; San Jose, Costa Rica

3 Way: USA +200, Costa Rica +162, Draw +229; USA PK +107, Costa PK -122

The average U.S. sports fan will look at this fixture and think this should be an easy three points for the Yanks.  After all, Jurgen's team is on a streak for the ages, having won twelve straight games with big wins coming at home against Germany and on the road at Bosnia-Herzegovina.  Hell, if the USMNT wins four more games, it will break the world record for consecutive games won by a national team, currently held by reigning World Cup champion Spain.  But, the sobering reality is that history is not on the USMNT's side when it plays in Costa Rica, and this is the most likely place for the streak to end.  The last three times Sam's Army has ventured down to Costa Rica for World Cup Qualifiers, it has been wiped off the pitch by Lost Ticos to the tune of 3-1, 3-0, and 2-0.  Based on recent history, one could argue that Costa Rica is the hardest place for the USMNT to play, not Estadio Azteca.  Then you have the three words giving Los Ticos all the motivation in the world..."The Snow Game."  Costa Ricans could probably not care less as to what we do in Syria, because the only thing that matters this week is avenging their 1-0 loss to the Yanks in the highly-controversial game played in March.  Los Ticos have plenty of quality players throughout their squad, led by Fulham player Bryan Ruiz.  In addition to having solid players, this team has played extremely well as a unit of late, evidenced by the fact that they have not conceded a goal in their last 360+ minutes of World Cup Qualifying.  While Jurgen's boys have had a great run, they are in a terrible spot here, as there is just too much going in favor of Los Ticos.

Pick: Costa Rica 2-1 

United States vs. Mexico

Columbus Crew Stadium; Columbus, Ohio

Tuesday, September 10th; 8:00 P.M. EST

Odds not currently posted

While the USMNT may play very poorly when they travel to Costa Rica, the exact opposite occurs when they play against Mexico in Columbus.  Over the years, Columbus Crew Stadium has become the stadium of choice for the Yanks when they play El Tri, and for very good reason: the U.S. has never lost to Mexico there, beating them by a 2-0 margin in every qualifier.  It is because of this that unique history of scorelines that the stadium is known by die-hard fans as the home of "Dos a Cero", the trio of words that make a Mexico fan's blood boil.  Unlike other stadiums across the country, Columbus Crew Stadium is completely packed with red,white, and blue when the USMNT comes to town, and has given the U.S. a huge home-field advantage over the years.  Beyond this, Sam's Army has been fantastic at home during World Cup Qualifying, having won every game while not conceding a single goal.  Contrast that with Mexico, who is in the dogfight of their lives for the final automatic CONCACAF qualifying bid, doing everything they can to avoid a playoff with Oceania champion New Zealand.  There is unquestionably great individual talent in Mexico's squad, but they have played well below standards as a unit, having only scored three goals in six qualifiers.  The most surprising part is that Mexico has failed to win or score at home in Estadio Azteca, which over the years has been a fortress for El Tri.  Even if Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez and Co. get a win against Honduras on Friday, I can't see them getting any kind of a result in Ohio given their recent form and history at Columbus Crew Stadium.  Expect the USMNT to come out firing with the crowd at their back, knowing that three points here will secure a trip to Brazil.

Pick: USA 2-0 (If it ain't broke, don't fix it)


Best of luck to everyone, and let's hope the Yanks prove me wrong in San Jose!

Confederations Cup: Brazil vs. Italy

Azzurri Looks To Avoid Semi-Final Match vs. Spain

The final games of Group A will be played simultaneously on Saturday at 3:00 PM EST, though only one game truly matters as Japan and Mexico have already been eliminated.  With both Brazil and Italy tied atop the group at six points, the outcome of this game will determine who faces Spain in the semi-finals.  As things stand right now, Brazil would win the group because of their superior goal differential.  Thus, the scenarios are easily apparent: Brazil can win the group with a draw or win, while Italy must beat Brazil to win the group and avoid a semi-final match against Spain.  

Because it must beat Brazil to win the group, some might think that Italy is going to throw caution to the wind in order to come out victorious.  After conceding three times to Japan though, the Azzurri's attentions have to be directed to their back line.  Italy is known for it's defensive soccer, and I expect their entire focus to be on turning out a strong defensive effort against the host nation.  Remember, Italy is the nation that birthed Catenaccio, and is more prone to winning games 1-0 than 4-3. Expect to see the Italians lay back and absorb Brazil's attack for most of the game, then break on the counter quickly when they gain possession.  Not having Andrea Pirlo on the pitch, who is out with a calf injury, will definitely affect Italy's ability to possess the ball, and create attacking chances.   Unless Brazil gets a lead early on, don't expect to see a Pirlo-less Italy recklessly throwing numbers up the pitch until late in the game.

On the other side of the pitch, Brazil only needs a draw to win the group and face the runner-up of Group B, which will most likely be Uruguay.  With there being no need to press the issue against Italy, expect to see the Brazilians possess the ball with some caution, as they won't want to leave themselves exposed to the Italian counter-attack when they give up the ball.  Couple that approach with a back four that hasn't conceded a goal yet in the tournament, and you have a recipe for a low-scoring game.

Prediction:  Based on the scenarios in play, this game screams DRAW to me.  The host nation's number one goal for this game has to be keeping Italy from finding the back of the net, as it guarantees Brazil winning the group.  With both teams also putting defense as a priority for this game, you have to think this will be a low-scoring affair that is decided by no more than a goal.  

Draw +280

Under 2.5 Goals. 

         

USMNT Friendlies against Belgium and Germany

Major European Opponents Provide Major Opportunities

Two friendlies this week against Belgium and Germany will prove to be very tough tests for the United States ahead of their World Cup qualifiers in June.  Belgium is an up and coming power in Europe that has loads of talent in their squad, most of which is very young.  Eden Hazard, Vincent Kompany, and Marouane Fellaini are just a few of the big names you will see on the field for the Belgians tonight.  Then on Sunday, traditional powerhouse Germany awaits.  Even though the Germans will be without many of their best players when they go up against the Americans on Sunday night, their squad will still be filled with quality.  You need to look no further than their 4-2 drubbing of Ecuador earlier today, where Germany lead 4-0 after just twenty-four minutes.  While the U.S. will be underdogs in both matches, Klinsmann's players have played their best when the lights have shined brightest.  No one can forget the win in Italy last year, or the Yankees being undefeated in their last two matches against Mexico in Azteca.  Winning these games would be great for boosting the team's confidence level before qualifiers resume, but the important thing is figuring out which eleven will be the ones to take the field when World Cup qualification is on the line.  That being said, here's what I'm looking to see in these two matches.

1. The return of Stu Holden.
   
   This is what I'm most excited to see happen in these two matches.  Holden was having the best year of his career in the 2010-11 season, and was running the show for Bolton before suffering a horrific leg injury against Manchester United.  He faced a long road of recovery, and is now finally healthy and back with the national squad.  Since he only made four appearances for Bolton in the Championship this season, these two friendlies will be crucial to gauge what type of player Holden is right now.  If he can show the form he exhibited in the 2010-11 season, there is no doubt that he will be playing serious minutes in the upcoming qualifiers, as his fitness will only get better with more training.  Holden can be a big difference-maker when he's at his best, it's just a matter of seeing whether he's regained that form.
2. Can Gonzales and Besler repeat their strong performance from Azteca?
   
   After keeping a clean sheet at Azteca in March, you have to think that this is who Klinsmann will go with as his two central defenders.  Allowing no goals on the road in Mexico City is incredible feat, but these two will be put to the test by both the Belgian and German attackers.  Solid performances from these two would go a long way to solidifying their spots for the upcoming qualifiers, but for Brazil as well.  The last thing the Yanks want are more questions about the back line heading into the next round of qualifiers.  
3. Will someone step up and claim the open spot at left back for the USMNT?
   
   Damarcus Beasley filled the void well at the position in the game at Azteca.  However, Beasley is really a left winger, so Klinsmann would probably like to see a defender step up and claim the spot.  The most likely to do that is Fabian Johnson, but he will be arriving late to camp due to club requirements in the Bundesliga. Beasley will probably get the start tonight against Belgium with Johnson absent, and if he can have another strong performance, the spot may be his to lose even when Johnson does come back.
4. Can Altidore find the net for the Yanks?
   
   Jozy had a career year for his club AZ Alkmaar, becoming the first American player to score 30 goals in a European league.  The man was an absolute beast in the Eredivisie.  Yet Altidore hasn't found found the back of the net for his country since 2011, and the U.S. has only managed two goals in three qualifiers so far.  If Jozy can replicate his club form for the national team, the Yanks shouldn't have any problem in qualifying for the 2014 World Cup.  All he needs is just one to get him going, so the distributors in the midfield should be looking to get Altidore as many chances as possible in these two friendlies. 
5. The absence of the greatest American player to ever lace them up.
   
   Landon Donovan has come back from his soccer sabbatical, and has been performing fairly well for the Los Angeles Galaxy.  Despite his return to the game, Klinsmann did not include him in his roster for this round of friendlies of qualifiers.  If the U.S. doesn't perform well this week, fans and the media will be clamoring for the return of Donovan, which could be possible in the form of an injury replacement.  There is no doubt that Donovan can be moody at times, as evidenced by his sabbatical which included a trip to Cambodia.  At the same time though, you can't deny that Donovan makes an impact for the team any time he puts on the national kit.  Defenses have to be aware of where he is on the pitch at all times, and our offense is more likely to put the ball in the back of the net when he is on the field.  I know that I will be wondering what kind of difference he could make over these next 180 minutes.

Predictions: I think we'll see a scoring draw tonight, with each team finding the back of the net once.  Germany will be too much for the Yanks, and will get a win despite not having their biggest names here.  I do expect Altidore to get a goal in one of the games though. 

  

UEFA Champions League Final Preview

Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund

May 25^th, 2:45 PM EST

The world’s premier soccer tournament comes to a close this weekend, with two Bundesliga squads squaring off for the cup at the famed Wembley Stadium in London.  While the World Cup is more recognizable among the general public, the UEFA Champions League has long been known as the superior tournament to followers of the game because it consists solely of the top professional teams from each country in Europe that empty their coffers to fill their squads with superstars.  Though this year’s final does not produce the juicy Real Madrid vs. Barcelona matchup that everyone had hoped for, it will no doubt be an exciting match pitting the two best teams of the tournament against one another. Notably, this is only the fourth occasion that clubs from the same country have squared off in the final, the last time coming in 2008 when Manchester United and Chelsea went to penalties in Russia. 

How We Got Here:

In the semifinals of the tournament, Dortmund faced off against Real Madrid while Bayern was matched against Barcelona.  Both were heavy underdogs before the two-legged semifinals began, and soccer fans around the world dreamed of seeing an all-Spanish final that would include the likes of Ronaldo, Messi, and the antics of Jose Mourinho.  Dortmund and Bayern had other ideas though, as both were able to overcome the Spanish giants over the two legs.  On aggregate, Dortmund narrowly triumphed over Madrid 4-3, while Bayern wiped the floor with Barcelona in a commanding 7-0 showing over the two legs.

What to Expect:

Both being from the Bundesliga, Dortmund and Bayern have already played four matches against one another this year.  The two league matches ended in 1-1 stalemates, while the two cup matches the squads played saw Bayern come away the victor by a goal in both.  Additionally, Bayern won the Bundesliga by an astounding margin this year, beating out runner-up Dortmund by a whopping 25 points.  All of this has led bookmakers to make Bayern a heavy favorite to lift the trophy in London.

Outside of the previous matches played this season, Bayern has some other off-the-pitch factors working in its favor.  Just this week, Dortmund player Mario Gotze (who will become a Bayern player this summer) was ruled out of the final with a hamstring injury.  The attacking midfielder scored 19 goals this season, and his talents will surely be missed by his teammates in this massive final.  Furthermore, Bayern are not in uncharted territory as this is the second year in a row they will be playing in the final, and the club will have extra motivation to avoid losing the cup for a second straight year. 

On the field, expect to see some differences in how these two teams approach the game. Bayern's quality throughout the squad should allow it to win the possession battle and dictate the pace at which the game is played.  When your starting XI is filled with the likes of Ribery, Robben, and Schweinsteiger, you can impose your will upon just about any team.  To anyone who thinks otherwise, all you need to do is look at that aggregate score against Barcelona, the best possession team in the world.  7-0.  I repeat, 7-0 against the best possession team in the world.  Bayern is on top of the soccer world right now, and should be able to dictate how this final is played.  On the other hand, Dortmund has made its way to the final by playing what their coach calls "Full Throttle Football", an aggressive counter-attacking style marked by constant pressure on the ball, one-touch passing, and getting up and down the field rapidly.  The teamwork with which they play is exceptional and makes you wonder if they have all been playing together since kindergarten.  Moreover, they have quite possibly the hottest striker in the game in Robert Lewandowski, who has scored 10 goals in 11 Champions League matches this season. Don't be surprised if he gets another in the final, as he is Dortmund's most lethal threat up top, and will be their target man throughout the game.

Prediction:

This should be another close match between the German teams, but in the end I think Bayern's quality will be too much for Dortmund to handle.  I must admit, Dortmund has seemed like the team of destiny after going unbeaten in the group stages and narrowly getting by Malaga and Madrid in the knockout rounds.  However, I was convinced after the Barcelona matches that Bayern is the best team in the world right now, and is on a mission to avenge their loss to Chelsea in last year's final.  Bayern has not lost to Dortmund this year, and the talent of Ribery, Schweinsteiger, and Robben in the midfield should be the difference with Gotze out.  I expect Dortmund to get a goal, and may even score first, but after ninety minutes Bayern will walk away the winner, sending their manager Jupp Heynckes off to retirement in the best manner possible.

Bayern Munich 2-1

Extra Time:

The Champions League final is soccer's version of the Super Bowl.  As such, bookmakers offer a number of prop bets for the game, though they are not anywhere near as ridiculous as some Super Bowl props.  I have gone through the list a few times and have found a few intriguing props that might be worth a small wager.  Remember, this is only for fun, and no one should be out there wagering pink slips or mortgages.

Dortmund Score 1st (+160):  The first fifteen minutes of any final are nervy, and that is the last thing you want when you are facing a team that applies constant pressure on the ball.  There is great value in this play, and don't be surprised if it's Lewandowski who opens the account.

Bayern To Win By 1 Goal (+250):  All four games these two teams played this year were decided by one goal or less.  Don't expect anything different in a cup final.  

Lewandowski To Score 1st Goal (+550):  The man put four goals past Madrid, and has scored 10 in 11 Champions League matches.  There isn't a hotter striker at the end of the season.

Robben To Score 1st Goal (+700): The Dutch winger is one of the best in the world, and will be looking to atone for his penalty miss in last year's final.  Expect to see shots early and often from Robben on Saturday.